Regional input-output analysis,data and uncertainty

This paper addresses two major issues. The first is the introduction of uncertainty into the framework of classical deterministic regional input-output (I-O) analysis. Secondly, the role of the use of measurable flow data on the fundamental structure of the models is explored. The opening section uncovers an anomaly in the classical approach when flows between regions of final demand products, external exports and imports are neglected in comparison to the flows of internal intermediate inputs. Next, we introduce uncertainty into the analysis by extending an entropy formulation developed by Wilson, which itself evolved from the formalism established by Leontief-Strout (L-S). The main enhancements include (i) the introduction of regional output capacities to capture spillovers from regions operating close to capacity, (ii) the inclusion of flows of external imports and exports and (iii) the use of total measurable flows as input which are readily available from surveys, yielding as output not only the total flows of each sector between each pair of regions, but (optionally) the further disaggregation of these flows to include their final destination sector or their use as final demand. In fact, a key objective is to structurally account for the joint influence of technology, output capacities and transportation costs on the pattern of intermediate and final demand flows between regions. Further extensions of the approach lead to the generation of probabilistic supply functions as tools within a potential CGE analysis. This option requires the introduction of prices, permitting a profit constraint to replace the simple transport cost constraint of the earlier models.Received: August 2000 / Accepted: April 2003     

Regional trade flows of manufactured products

Little is known about regional trade flows in the United States. Using tonnage data from theCensus of Transportation, this study develops dollar estimates of the trade of manufactured products between the census regions. The technique utilized makes it possible to construct import-export matrices for 19, two-digit S.I.C. industries for the years 1963 and 1967. Total imports, exports, and resulting balances of trade are estimated for each census region. It is found that, quantitatively, interregional trade is much more important to the various regions than international trade is to the United States.     

Spatial interaction modelling

Abstract. Spatial interaction (SI) is the process whereby entities at different points in physical space make contacts, demand/supply decisions or locational choices. The entities can be individuals or firms and the choices can include housing, jobs, production quantities, exports, imports, face-to-face contacts, schools, retail centres and activity centres. The first SI models can be grouped under the generic heading gravity models. Their main characteristic is that they model the behaviour of demand or supply segments, rather than that of individuals and firms. This article traces the development of these models from their inception in the early part of the twentieth century to the present. The key advances include the replacement of the gravity analogy by the more general concepts of entropy or information theory, a statistical framework commonly used in physics. With the arrival of the regional science paradigm over 50 years ago, a key challenge has been to broaden these models compared to those arising in spatial economics, thus arriving at a more inclusive probabilistic framework. These efforts are discussed here, as well as inclusion of geographical advances, embracing activities as generators of travel, time-geography, recognition of spatial interdependencies, and use of neuro-computing principles.     

Shortcut formulas for output,income and employment multipliers

Although Input-Output models provide a method to measure the output, income, and employment impacts of an industry sector on its regional economy, the extensive data requirements make the construction of an accurate survey based input-output model extremely expensive. Using the random matrix approach, this paper derives and empirically tests shortcut formulas for output, income, and employment impacts that closely approximate the actual effects.     

Regional development and construction in Italy: an input-output analysis, 1959-1992

Using two sets of input-output tables, this paper analyses the role of the construction sector in the North and South regions of Italy, from 1959 to 1992. As expected, the sector has had differing impacts on the two regional economies over the years. In the highly developed North its importance has been declining, similarly to the case of other highly developed countries. In the less developed South, instead, construction has a relatively higher propulsive role in the creation of goods and income. This role is significantly diminished since most of the construction inputs are imported. Some differences are reported in the sector's input and output profiles of the two regions. From the technological and organizational points of view, in the South construction projects appear to be less complex than those in the North.     

Spatial interaction modelling

Spatial interaction (SI) is the process whereby entities at different points in physical space make contacts, demand/supply decisions or locational choices. The entities can be individuals or firms and the choices can include housing, jobs, production quantities, exports, imports, face-to-face contacts, schools, retail centres and activity centres. The first SI models can be grouped under the generic heading gravity models. Their main characteristic is that they model the behaviour of demand or supply segments, rather than that of individuals and firms. This article traces the development of these models from their inception in the early part of the twentieth century to the present. The key advances include the replacement of the gravity analogy by the more general concepts of entropy or information theory, a statistical framework commonly used in physics. With the arrival of the regional science paradigm over 50 years ago, a key challenge has been to broaden these models compared to those arising in spatial economics, thus arriving at a more inclusive probabilistic framework. These efforts are discussed here, as well as inclusion of geographical advances, embracing activities as generators of travel, time-geography, recognition of spatial interdependencies, and use of neuro-computing principles.JEL Classification: C190, C450, C610, R00     

The choice of an input-output table embedded in regional econometric input-output models

In this paper, we investigate the role of input-output data sources in regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional inputoutput coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated inputoutput coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output models revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in both forecast and impact analyses. The adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system did not mask the differences imbedded in input-output tables derived from different data sources. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there should be strong motivation for basing the syste on the most accurate set of input-output accounts.     

Estimating undisclosed earnings data

A problem with constructing regional economic models from secondary sources is that of undisclosed data. For example, the RIMS II technique for developing nonsurvey input-output models, requires disaggregated industry earnings data. County Business Patterns employment and earnings data are suppressed for industries with few firms or with a dominate firm, requiring that earnings be estimated for some industries. We examine eleven representative methods for estimating undisclosed earnings. A simple earnings ratio technique using more aggregated data from the same state is shown to provide reasonable estimates of industry earnings.The authors would like to thank Otis Gilley and Bill Workman for their helpful comments. We are greatful for financial support from the Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development.     

Measurement of growth equalized employment multiplier effects: An empirical example

This paper is an expository note in which it is demonstrated that conventional input-output multipliers based upon the Leontief matrix may provide misleading information concerning the relative importance of the processing sectors within a regional economy. An alternative technique is presented in which economic multipliers are based upon percentage changes in sales to final demand. Evidence that size variation among economic sectors prevents meaningful comparisons of multipliers is shown using the Colorado Input-Output Model. A comparison between several types of conventional employment multipliers and growth equalized multipliers is used to indicate the magnitude of the effects of non-equal sector size.     

Judging regional forecasting accuracy — Sectoral employment in the San Francisco Bay area

Summary This paper has briefly discussed the problem of judging regional economic forecasting accuracy from the point of view of assessing the quality of industry employment forecasts for the SF Bay Area on an expost basis. Because of the formidable problems associated with regional economic forecasting a sophisticated econometric approach toex ante analysis was rejected in favor of accuracy analysis of employment projection along lines suggested by Henri Theil. This accuracy analysis involved a slightly modified version of Theil's inequality coefficient. The coefficient permits easy comparison of a given model's output with an assumed naive model, the comparison being predicated upon acceptance of a quadratic loss criteria. The results suggest that the SF Model functions substantially better than two versions of naive models: the no-change and the average historical change models. Forecasting with the model, however, is independent upon ability to obtain sufficiently detailed forecasts of national economic developments. While the development of econometric art is promising, no national models predict all the exogenous variables required. One model, the Wharton School's, is presently producing results which are being modified for inclusion in the exogenous variables of this model. In the absence of completion of this task, estimates prepared for the State of California's quarterly forecasting model have been used to generate forecasts to 1970, Tests of these forecasts over the period 1964–1966 suggest that errors in the exogenous variables seriously affect the outcome of the regional model. Nonetheless, the results are still superior to the naive model against which the regional model has been tested.     

An interregional labour market model incorporating vacancy chains and social security

This paper deals with three aspects of interregional demo-economic models which are important with respect to the analysis of regional labour market developments. First, attention is paid to forecasts of the exogenous regional variables, such as investments, exports, etc. Because data at the regional level are usually scarce, it is suggested to make these projections by means of a top-down model. Second, the social security sector is incorporated in the model framework, because changes in social security benefits, which are common in many Western countries nowaday, usually have substantial impacts on regional economic and demographic structures. Third, a vacancy chain model instead of a simple employment growth equation is tied to the standard demo-economic model framework. In this way not only employment growth but also migration, job mobility and related income effects can be taken into account.     

An evaluation of the Burford Katz short cut technique for deriving input-output multipliers

This paper is concerned with extending understanding of short cut approaches to deriving regional economic multipliers. It focuses on the work of Burford and Katz. Seven regional input-output tables are analysed using the Burford Katz formula. Rules of thumb are developed to assist the regional analyst in making decisions on the appropriateness of applying short-cut formulae in order to estimate input-output multipliers when no input-output table exists.     

Technique and technology in regional input-output

In thirty years, regional input-output has emerged from its origins as a research technique developed by a few pioneering academics and has become a practical tool widely used by a large commercial market. This development of regional input-output techniques is traced and considered in the context of technological change. While regional input-output remained the preserve of academics it was a technique supported by the technology of Regional Science. The diffusion of the technique has not always been accompanied by the diffusion of the technology with the result that regional input-output has increasingly been abused by those who seek to make the most practical use of the technique.     

2009年工程机械进出口数据

2009年,受国际金融危机的影响,中国工程机械进出口整体降幅明显,各机种均有不同程度的下降。但从全年走势看,各机种进出口情况逐步向好,相信在2010年会有更好的表现。本文列出了主要机种2009年全年进出口数据,希望能为读者宏观把握市场提供参考。     

Applicability and limitations in the use of national input-output tables for regional studies

Some Tentative Conclusions It appears that although national input-output tables cannot be used for purposes of regional studies without considerable adjustments, acceptable results can be achieved by the methods tried on the Washington State table.In order to obtain acceptable results it seems important (1) to exclude the tertiary sectors through aggregation, and (2) to use field surveys in order to obtain input-output coefficients for (a) primary industries and (b) industries in which the regional economy is specialized. Price adjustments and adjustments for domestic imports do not seem to add anything to the quality of results. Neither do successive iterations after the first one.Financial help for this research was provided by a Cornell Faculty Research Grant to the senior author and is acknowledged. The authors are deeply indebted to the late Professor Charles M. Tiebout, of the University of Washington, who provided the Washington State Input-Output Table used for the case study and who also assisted with helpful comments. Mrs. Katherine Drew and Mrs. Tessa Osborne gave programming assistance, and Barry Lawson acted as research assistant during part of the preparation.     

AN EXTENDED INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL INCORPORATING EMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYED, AND IN-MIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS

ABSTRACT Household disaggregation is an important, yet relatively neglected, factor in the construction of regional input-output models. This paper shows how a simple input-output model can he progressively extended to provide a more realistic representation or the relationship between industrial sectors anti demographic characteristics of a local labor market. An extended, model including employed, unemployed, and in-migrant households is proposed and its analytical properties examined. A detailed sensitivity analysis of this model is conducted, using data for Strathelyde in Scotland. Particular attention is given to establishing the range of parameter values that must be adhered in in order that economically feasible solutions may he obtained.     

Simulation of future trade in wood pulp between Canada and the United States

A model of the North American pulp and paper industry developed previously by the authors was used to simulate the trade of wood pulp between various regions of Canada and the United States, to the year 2000, under three different scenarios. The base simulation assumed no change in trade policies or cost competitiveness between regions, concentrating on the effects of changes in population and income. Under these assumptions, it was found that Canadian exports to the United States would remain approximately constant until 1990, but then double by the year 2000, reaching 5 million tons per year. Meanwhile, exports to the rest of the world would decline by 40 percent, to 2.5 million tons. Total Canadian exports would increase by some 15 percent over the next 20 years. In the second set of simulations, an ad valorem tariff on Canadian pulp was assumed. This led to a sharp reduction in U.S. imports. However, this decrease of Canadian exports to the United States would be compensated to a large extent by increased Canadian exports to Western Europe. The third simulation assumed a sustained rise in manufacturing costs for the entire pulp and paper sector in Canada. This resulted, unexpectedly, to a rise in exports of pulp to the United States. The reason was a rise in paper and newsprint production in the United States that made it advantageous for U.,S. producers to import more Canadian chemical pulp.We thank Robert N. Stone and Richard Haynes for their collaboration. The research leading to this paper was supported by the USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, the School of Natural Resources, University of Wisconsin, Madison and the California Agricultural Research Experiment Station, Berkeley.     

Geostatistical assessment of Pb in soil around Paris, France

This paper presents a survey on soil Pb contamination around Paris (France) using the French soil monitoring network. The first aim of this study is to estimate the total amount of anthropogenic Pb inputs in soils and to distinguish Pb due to diffuse pollution from geochemical background Pb. Secondly, this study tries to find the main controlling factors of the spatial distribution of anthropogenic Pb. We used the technique of relative topsoil enhancement to evaluate the anthropogenic stock of Pb and we performed lognormal kriging to map Pb regional distribution. The results show a strong gradient of anthropogenic stock of Pb around the urban Paris area. We estimate a total amount of anthropogenic stock of Pb close to 143,000 metric tons, which corresponds to an average accumulation of 5.9 t km(-2). Our study suggests that a grid-based survey can help to quantify diffuse Pb contamination by using robust techniques of calculation and that it might also be used to validate predictions of deposition models.     

Emerging challenges in regional input-output analysis

The changing interests and focus of research in the field of regional input-output analysis is examined. After reviewing some of the recent trends and suggesting the tenor of the prevailing philosophy in the field, attention is focused on three, interdependent emerging trends. These are characterized as (1) the conceptualization of input-output within the traditions of econometric analysis; (2) the integration of input-output with other regional and interregional models and (3) attempts to link input-output analysis with regional growth and development theory.     

A comparison of the multipliers of IMPLAN,REMI, and RIMS II: Benchmarking ready-made models for comparison

The IMPLAN, REMI and RIMS II regional input-output models are used extensively in regional policy analysis. Yet, no study exists that compares all three models. Therefore, this study compares the multipliers of these three models for Clark County, Nevada. It is found that the multipliers of the default versions of the models delivered by the vendors significantly differ across models. Benchmarked versions of the models are obtained by controlling for differences in closure rules and techniques used to regionalize national input-output coefficients. The multipliers of the benchmarked versions generally do not significantly differ. Thus, conclusions can be reached about what differences exist between the multipliers of the three models and why. Moreover, the method used to benchmark the models for comparison provides users of these models with the potential to improve their model.The authors acknowledge financial support for the project from the U.S. Department of Energy