基于LEC法在实验室风险评估中的应用研究

强化实验室风险识别与评估的能力,是有效实施实验室风险防控管理的前提条件。本文基于LEC法对实验室及其检测过程的风险识别与评价进行应用研究,旨在为实验室风险评估提供方法借鉴,以期提高检测实验室风险评估能力的充分性和有效性。     

基于AHP-Fuzzy的工程建筑设计风险综合评价

  为综合分析、评价工程建筑设计的技术风险和质量风险,采用专家调查法,全面调查分析了工程建筑设计中会遇到的涉及安全、公共利益等各种风险因素.根据调查结果,采用主观打分法对各风险因素对工程质量安全和工程使用功能的重要程度和风险程度进行了评价.采用AHP方法,计算了各风险因素对工程综合影响的相对重要性权重,并进行了排序.基于AHP评价结果,采用模糊评价法对各风险因素进行了模糊综合评价.综合分析三种评价结果,最终得出建筑设计风险总体上属于中等偏低的水平,并给出建筑设计中各风险因素的重要程度,从而为建筑设计人员提供启示和指导.     

基于D-AHP的煤气管道安装风险评估

本文基于“专家评价SOD信息+层次分析法（AHP）”理论,对某煤气管网改扩建工程安装项目风险进行了评估分析。结果表明：四个风险维度中,权重值排序从大到小依次为管理风险、商业风险、技术风险、外部风险,安全防护风险、主要原材料采购风险、管理团队风险三项风险因素是目前项目所面临的主要风险因素,在安装施工过程中应引起足够的重视。     

基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估

工期不确定以及资源冲突等问题的存在使得项目进度管理更加复杂。为有效地识别工期风险,本文在灰色关键链法的基础上,首先运用一致指数对工序工期进行灰色估计,并综合考虑资源紧张度、工序复杂度、开工柔性、风险偏好、环境不确定性5个影响项目进度的不确定性因素。然后,基于三角白化权函数的灰色聚类评估模型确定综合聚类系数,从而进行工期风险评估。最后通过算例分析,快速识别工期风险大的工序,降低工期延误风险,验证所提方法的有效性和实用性。     

面向航空项目的风险识别技术研究

风险识别是项目风险管理的关键技术之一,直接影响风险管理中的风险估测、风险评价和选择风险应对措施等技术。分析了航空项目风险的主要来源;结合我国航空项目管理中风险识别的特点,运用核对表并改进鱼刺图对航空项目进行风险识别;提出了面向航空项目的风险识别新技术——现象一因子模型。本技术为航空项目高效、准确地识别项目风险奠定了基础。同时,分析了风险识别技术在航空项目风险管理中的具体应用,初步解决了航空项目中的风险识别问题。     

心流理论下公共健身服务设施设计评估研究

目的 为提供不仅能加强用户黏性以形成激励循环,还能提高用户使用专注度的公共健身服务设施,提出将心流理论、AHP层次分析法和模糊综合评价法理论融合形成产品设计评估的研究方法。方法 首先,提炼心流理论各阶段下公共健身设施的设计需求,构建心流阶段设计要素评估指标体系;其次,利用AHP层次分析法进行定性分析和定量分析,经计算与检验得出具有客观性的综合权重排序,根据排序结果指导智慧划船机健身设施的设计实践;最后,运用模糊综合评价法进行设计评估验证,得到最佳设计方案,并进行改善。结果 经过研究与分析,设计了心流理论、AHP层次分析法和模糊综合评价法结合的产品设计评估理论方法,并以智慧划船机为例进行了理论研究方法的可行性验证。结论 多理论结合的产品设计方法,有助于进行公共健身服务设施的设计指导与方案评估,在使健身用户获得最优健身体验的同时,也为同类产品设计提供理论参考。     

基于AHP-GRA-TPOSIS的自闭症儿童家庭康复干预产品设计研究

目的 为了在家庭场景中帮助自闭症儿童进行康复干预训练,提高其康复效果,基于“安全型依恋”和“沉浸理论”两种心理理论,对家庭康复干预产品进行设计研究,并建立最佳设计方案的评价模型。方法 以广州小天使康复训练中心为研究对象,通过文献综述、自然观察、问卷、访谈等用户研究方式确定定性指标,并使用Gephi对“安全型依恋”和“沉浸理论”的理论建构进行聚类分析。将层次分析法（AHP）、灰色关联法（GRA）和逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）三种方法综合运用,发挥各自优势避免局限性,用以建立自闭症儿童家用干预产品设计指导与评价模型,并进行深入的设计。结果 以改善自闭症儿童自身社会交往障碍、情绪障碍、认知障碍、感觉障碍四个方面为准则,建立“自闭症儿童家用康复产品设计”的设计指导与量化评估模型,并应用到自闭症儿童家用康复干预产品的设计实践中,再综合评估选择出最佳方案。结论 以“安全型依恋”和“沉浸理论”为理论基础建立的自闭症儿童家庭康复干预产品设计策略和评估方法,其评估过程科学,结果合理。通过设计实践,创造出科学有效的沉浸式康复干预体验,促进自闭症儿童构建安全型依恋关系,提高干预自闭症儿童的康复训练效果。     

出口机电产品风险识别及动态RAC风险评估

风险分析已逐步在出口机电产品检验监管中应用,但风险识别和发生可能性评估主要依据个人经验。文中根据历史数据和出口机电产品的特点,识别了出口机电产品的主要风险,采用了对风险发生可能性进行动态评估的动态RAC法进行风险评价。与常用的方法相比,动态RAC法更加客观、更易操作,且对外部环境变化更敏感。     

渤海海峡隧道TBM 施工风险评估及关键风险对策探讨

本文以渤海海峡隧道设想方案的施工风险为评估对象,采用层次分析法（AHP）-模糊综合评价法对渤海海峡隧道的施工风险进行了识别和评价,认为渤海海峡隧道施工风险等级为三级,为高风险隧道。分析了影响风险等级的关键风险为隧道掘进机（TBM）主轴承制造风险、突水突泥风险和施工通风风险,并根据这些风险的特征提出了风险对策建议和尚需解决的关键问题,为渤海海峡隧道的决策提供参考,同时也为跨海隧道的规划、设计以及施工方案的制定提供参考。     

弹箭防护包装产品生产风险管理探析

弹箭防护包装产品的生产过程具有多种材料综合集成应用和工艺控制复杂的特点,存在较大的质量、进度和成本控制风险。以某发射筒为例,综合运用风险管理理论,对其生产过程进行了风险识别、风险分析、风险管理与控制,揭示了风险管理理论对项目/产品实现预期目标具有的作用和意义。     

制造业OEM模式风险及其评价模型

针对我国许多企业,特别是中小型制造企业都选择OEM模式而面临多种风险的现状,从法律、经济、质量和社会4个方面出发,分析了OEM模式存在的风险,建立了风险评价指标体系.根据评价指标的特性,建立了将层次分析法和灰色评价法相结合的评价模型,为选择OEM模式的企业正确识别风险并对风险进行评价提供了一种思路和方法.     

A collaborative evaluation method of the quality of patent scientific and technological resources

A justified patent quality evaluation method is critical to improving the sharing efficiency of scientific and technological resources in online platforms. We propose a collaborative evaluation method of the quality of patent scientific and technological resources, combining the subjective evaluation results from the collaborative evaluation and the objective evaluation results. Firstly, an index system of patent quality is established, with the values of three dimensions, i.e., technical, legal, and market, considered. Then a collaborative evaluation model of patent quality based on the index system is proposed. Finally, a patent quality evaluation system is developed to support the collaborative evaluation process of patent quality. Our approach improves the comprehensiveness and efficiency of patent quality evaluation, and thereby facilitates the construction and development of regional scientific and technological resources sharing platforms.     

基于直觉模糊关系的供应链风险评估

针对供应链风险评判过程中的复杂模糊关系,借助直觉模糊理论,将犹豫度引入到具体的风险评判过程中,构建基于直觉模糊关系的供应链风险评判决策模型,并详细阐述了该方法的算法步骤,最后通过具体算例对该模型的实际应用进行了一定的分析.结果表明,该模型有望在实际中得到更加广泛的应用.     

基于AHP-FCE的医院陪护病床设计与评价

目的利用层次分析和模糊综合评价法,建立产品设计中的考量因素与客观的数据模型的联系,对医院陪护病床进行综合评价,以设计出符合用户需求的优化方案。方法以医院陪护病床设计为验证案例,首先确定具有设计意义的模型因素,利用层次分析法建立指标体系层次模型,分析调研数据,获得相关设计因素的权重值,以此指导设计方案的生成。依据模糊综合评价法,对设计方案进行客观、全面、综合的评估,选择最佳方案,并做进一步优化。结论该设计方法指导的医院陪护病床方案具有较好的创新性与可行性,该方法在新产品开发设计过程中具有科学的参考价值,能提供一定的设计依据,避免了决策人员的主观性与随意性,可以提高设计质量。     

基于分布式产品模型并行设计过程评估方法

基于分布式设计问题概率模型、并行工程和计算机辅助设计软件工程的思想,研究了一种基于分布式设计环境下的服务于产品整个生命周期的集成化、智能化产品设计过程协同评估方法;目的是快速构造集成化产品设计过程评估模型,促进并入并行工程理念的协同设计活动顺利进行、提高产品设计质量和缩短产品研制周期的能力。给出了产品设计过程问题评估模型和分布式产品设计过程协同评估平台框架,并给出了应用实例。     

Risk analysis of corrosion failures of equipment in refining and petrochemical plants based on fuzzy set theory

Corrosion failures of process equipment have been one of the main sources of risk to refining and petrochemical plants. For reducing failure risk levels and optimizing inspection plans, risk analysis of equipment failures resulting from corrosion need to be implemented. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of the refining and petrochemical units and risks, effective analyses are hard to accomplish by using conventional risk techniques. With respect to this, a new model for risk analysis of corrosion failures of equipment is developed base on fuzzy set theory. In this model, two essential parts of failure risk (i.e., failure likelihood and severity of failure consequence) are first estimated by using fuzzy synthetic evaluation, and then integrated into a risk index by fuzzy risk graph which is established based on fuzzy logic system. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of this model, an application example in an overhead system of a crude-oil distillation unit was presented. The results show that this model is effective and feasible.     

A novel systematic method to evaluate computer-supported collaborative design technologies

Selection of suitable computer-supported collaborative design (CSCD) technologies is crucial to facilitate successful projects. This paper presents the first systematic method for engineering design teams to evaluate and select the most suitable CSCD technologies comparing technology functionality and project requirements established in peer-reviewed literature. The paper first presents 220 factors that influence successful CSCD. These factors were then systematically mapped and categorised to create CSCD requirement statements. The novel evaluation and selection method incorporates these requirement statements within a matrix and develops a discourse analysis text processing algorithm with data from collaborative projects to automate the population of how technologies impact the success of CSCD in engineering design teams. This method was validated using data collected across 3 years of a student global design project. The impact of this method is the potential to change the way engineering design teams consider the technology they use and how the selection of appropriate tools impacts the success of their CSCD projects. The development of the CSCD evaluation matrix is the first of its kind enabling a systematic and justifiable comparison and technology selection, with the aim of best supporting the engineering designers collaborative design activity.     

Human factors methods for early evaluation of control room systems – guidelines for use in practice

Formative human factors (HF) evaluation is an important activity in control room design. Its purpose is to provide design feedback in the development process, preferably early so as to lower the risk of late and sub-optimal design changes. Early evaluation requires assessment of higher level design decisions due to the gradual specificity of design decisions made as the development process progresses. There is also a need to further develop HF methods that are applicable in practice. The purpose of this article is to seek understanding of, and base guidelines on, the practical use of HF methods for formative assessment of higher level design decisions in control rooms. Evaluations in three development projects at a Swedish nuclear power plant were studied, identifying 18 method guidelines. The guidelines related to: 1) the method’s ability to define, adapt, focus and balance; 2) execution of the evaluation workshops; 3) the communicative purpose of the evaluation activity. Comparing the identified guidelines with literature showed similarities, but also highlighted unique guidelines. The compiled results can be used to further develop methods for early formative evaluation of control rooms in practice.     

项目区域风险的模糊综合评价方法研究

针对项目区域风险诸多非精确量且属性复杂的评价条件，建立了系统、完整的项目区域风险评价指标体系。基于多层模糊推理，结合层次分析法提出了一种多属性、多层次、综合考虑项目区域风险因素的三级模糊综合评价方法。这种方法按风险来源作为风险因素对项目区域风险进行分类，每大类再按其属性分层次评价，并依次将评价结果进行合成后得出最终的综合评价排序。最后通过一个简单算例说明了该方法的具体步骤及其有效性。     

A fuzzy model for assessing the risk exposure of procuring infrastructure mega-projects through public-private partnership: The case of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge

Considering the rapid urbanization growth rate particularly in developing countries, the number of infrastructure mega-projects over the past years has risen tremendously. Essentially, because infrastructure mega-projects require huge investment funds, better management skills, well qualified and experienced international expertise and technology innovation, they are mostly preferred to be procured using the PPP method compare to the use of the traditional bid-build system. In this regard, this paper aims to develop a fuzzy evaluation model for assessing the suitability of procuring infrastructure mega-projects through PPP by considering their risk exposure. The main body of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) is used as a case project to demonstrate the practicality of the risk evaluation model. The risk evaluation model consists of four critical risk groupings, these include, construction and land risks, commercial risks, operational risks and political risks. Using the risk evaluation equation, a risk index of 4.53 out of 5.00 is computed for the selected project if it is procured through the PPP scheme. This outcome shows that the case project is not suitable for the PPP approach because its risk exposure is very high. The model developed will enable PPP practitioners to predict the likely risk exposure of procuring infrastructure mega-projects through the PPP scheme.