Heterogeneous economic resilience and the great recession's world trade collapse

This special section aims to fill a gap in the regional resilience literature and to stimulate future spatial studies of resilience to include the international dimension in empirical analyses. It demonstrates the do‐ability and relevance by the natural experience of the global trade collapse that allows us to separate the effect of collapse upon event and ex post recovery because no ex ante resilience measures were taken. This is a great methodological advantage with respect to the literature on natural disasters and financial crises that is confronted with the difficulty of identifying resilience because of ex ante measures (prevention or inherent resilience measures) and ex post measures (recovery or adaptive resilience measures).     

On the idea of ex ante and ex post normalization of biproportional methods

Biproportional methods project a matrix A to give it the column and row sums of another matrix; the result is R A S, where R and S are diagonal matrices. As R and S are not identified, one must normalize them, even after computing, that is, ex post. This article starts from the idea developed in de Mesnard (2002) – any normalization amounts to put constraints on Lagrange multipliers, even when it is based on an economic reasoning, – to show that it is impossible to analytically derive the normalized solution at optimum. Convergence must be proved when normalization is applied at each step on the path to equilibrium. To summarize, normalization is impossible ex ante, what removes the possibility of having a certain control on it. It is also indicated that negativity is not a problem.Received: October 2002/Accepted: June 2003     

Judging regional forecasting accuracy — Sectoral employment in the San Francisco Bay area

Summary This paper has briefly discussed the problem of judging regional economic forecasting accuracy from the point of view of assessing the quality of industry employment forecasts for the SF Bay Area on an expost basis. Because of the formidable problems associated with regional economic forecasting a sophisticated econometric approach toex ante analysis was rejected in favor of accuracy analysis of employment projection along lines suggested by Henri Theil. This accuracy analysis involved a slightly modified version of Theil's inequality coefficient. The coefficient permits easy comparison of a given model's output with an assumed naive model, the comparison being predicated upon acceptance of a quadratic loss criteria. The results suggest that the SF Model functions substantially better than two versions of naive models: the no-change and the average historical change models. Forecasting with the model, however, is independent upon ability to obtain sufficiently detailed forecasts of national economic developments. While the development of econometric art is promising, no national models predict all the exogenous variables required. One model, the Wharton School's, is presently producing results which are being modified for inclusion in the exogenous variables of this model. In the absence of completion of this task, estimates prepared for the State of California's quarterly forecasting model have been used to generate forecasts to 1970, Tests of these forecasts over the period 1964–1966 suggest that errors in the exogenous variables seriously affect the outcome of the regional model. Nonetheless, the results are still superior to the naive model against which the regional model has been tested.     

Service life prediction of exterior cladding components under standard conditions

An empirical method was developed for the prediction of the service life of building components, based on an evaluation of their actual performance and on the identification of failure mechanisms affecting their durability. The service life of exterior components subjected to normal service conditions is predicted. Four types of exterior claddings are exemplified: cementitious mortar, synthetic rendering, ceramic mosaic, and wet‐fixing stone cladding. The proposed prediction models yield high degrees of fit to the data (R ² in the range of 0.86 to 0.93 at a 0.0001 level of significance). Life cycle costs (LCC) analysis – following service‐life prediction results – leads to the conclusion that maintenance and replacements costs account for 10–80% of initial capital costs. Synthetic rendering exhibited the highest LCC effectiveness, reflecting durability and low capital costs. The method can be used for planning preventive maintenance, evaluating economic implications of failures, and planning service life.     

The dynamics of trust during public participation

Literature often relies on ex post feedbacks from participants to investigate how public participation affects social capital. However, some scholars suggest that the actual achievement of own interests might bias the participants' ex post perception. Therefore, we designed an on-going evaluative system to monitor the dynamics of trust during public participation, and we tested it in a real case of engagement with local community of stakeholders. The evaluative system could track both processes of creation and destruction of trust over the time, designing complex patterns of evolutions. This study also provided hints for a more effective use of participatory tools.     

Measuring spatial dispersion: exact results on the variance of random spatial distributions

Measuring the spatial distribution of locations of many entities (trees, atoms, economic activities, etc.), and, more precisely, the deviations from purely random configurations, is a powerful method to unravel their underlying interactions. Several coefficients have been developed in the past to quantify the possible deviations. It is important to quantify the variances of the coefficients for random distributions, to ascertain the statistical significance of an empirical deviation. By lack of a proper analytical expression, the significance is usually obtained by simulating many random configurations by Monte Carlo simulations. In the present paper, we present an exact analytical expression for the variance of several spatial coefficients for random distributions, and we rigorously show that these distributions asymptotically follow a Normal law. These two results eliminate the need for cumbersome Monte Carlo simulations. They also allow to understand qualitatively the main factors that may change the variance: number of sites, spatial inhomogeneity, etc.     

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark-up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent 30 years, little progress has been made, due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. The debate is resumed by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to ensure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of 12 construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.     

Regression analyses for the minimum intensity-duration conditions of continuous rainfall for mudflows triggering in Yan’an,northern Shaanxi (China)

An empirical minimum intensity-duration (I-D) condition of continuous rainfall for mudflows triggering is proposed for Yan’an, northern Shaanxi, China, where rainfall-induced mudflows occur frequently. Adopting the quantile-regression method, a program was built using R programming language and statistical computing environment, and 175 continuous rainfall records were analyzed objectively. The 35th percentile regression line was determined as the minimum I-D condition of continuous rainfall that can potentially trigger mudflows within the duration interval of 24–336 h, where I is measured in millimeters per hour and D in hours. Comparison of the minimum I-D condition of continuous rainfall determined by this study with those rainfall I-D thresholds developed for the world and other regions reveals that lower rainfall intensity has the potential to trigger mudflows in the Yan’an district, which proves the necessity of defining regional minimum rainfall I-D conditions and site-specific operational rainfall I-D thresholds for mudflows triggering in Yan’an.     

Analysis of hurricane wind loads on low-rise structures

Time series of pressure coefficients collected on the roof of a house by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program during landfall of Hurricane Ivan on the Florida panhandle in 2004 are analyzed. Rather than using peak values, which could vary due to the stochastic nature of the data, a probabilistic analysis is performed to characterize extreme values of pressure coefficients and associated wind loads. It is shown that the pressure coefficient time series follows a three parameter Gamma distribution, while the peak pressure follows a two-parameter Gumbel distribution. The analysis yields a probability of non-exceedance of a given threshold of the pressure or load coefficients. For this specific house and specific storm, the 80 percentile load coefficient value of the probability of non-exceedance is −1.7. This is discussed in the context of ASCE 7 GCp values.     

A correlated bidding model for markup size decisions

Whereas competitive bidding models have been studied for more than five decades with many factors being considered and statistical methods proposed, the correlation among bids of different companies and its effects on markup decisions have not been explored. Through a multivariate competitive bidding model, the significance of the correlation is investigated in this paper. Mechanistic arguments and probabilistic analysis based on a breakdown of cost estimates show that bid ratios are positively correlated to one another. This fact is then incorporated as a priori information into a Bayesian statistical method to estimate the correlation coefficients from historical data with missing values. The effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian method has been demonstrated through a case study. The proposed bidding model has a flexible mathematical structure, which allows one to better characterize actual varying bidding patterns. It also includes the Friedman and Carr models as its special cases. Moreover, through the use of the streamlined Bayesian method, the new model can be implemented easily in practice.     

Exploring the connections among job accessibility, employment, income, and auto ownership using structural equation modeling

Using structural equation modeling, this study empirically examines the connections between job accessibility, workers per capita, income per capita, and autos per capita at the aggregate level with year 2000 census tract data in Sacramento County, CA. Under the specification of the conceptual model, the model implied covariance matrix exhibits a reasonably good fit to the observed covariance matrix. The direct and total effects are largely consistent with theory and/or with empirical observations across a variety of geographic contexts. It is demonstrated that structural equation modeling is a powerful tool for capturing the endogeneity among job accessibility, employment, income, and auto ownership.     

Extreme wind load estimates based on the Gumbel distribution of dynamic pressures: an assessment

We present a contribution to the current debate on whether it is more appropriate to fit a Gumbel distribution to the time series of the extreme dynamic pressures (i.e. of the squares of the extreme wind speeds) than to fit an extreme value distribution to the time series of the extreme wind speeds themselves. It has been shown that the use of time series of the extreme dynamic pressures would be justified if the time series of the wind speed data taken at small intervals (e.g. 1 h) were, at least approximately, Rayleigh-distributed. We show that, according to sets of data we believe are typical, this is not the case. In addition, we show results of probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) analyses of 100 records of sample size 23 to 54, according to which the fit of reverse Weibull distributions to largest yearly wind speeds is considerably better than the fit of Gumbel distributions to the corresponding largest yearly dynamic pressures. We interpret the data and results presented in the paper as indicating that there is no convincing support to date for the hypothesis that the Gumbel distribution should be used as a model of extreme dynamic pressures.     

Make public: performing public housing in Ernő Goldfinger's Balfron Tower

To ‘make public’ expresses three aims that have driven my doctoral research into the past and future of east London housing estates undergoing regeneration; materially – to protect public housing provision at a time when austerity measures are dismantling it in ideal and form; procedurally – to make visible problematic processes of urban change that are increasingly hidden from public view; and methodologically – to make public my act of research through intimate and sustained collaboration with residents on site. This research document focuses on Balfron Tower, a high-rise of 146 flats and maisonettes arranged on 26 storeys built in 1965–7, the first phase of émigré architect Ern? Goldfinger's work on the Greater London Council's (GLC) Brownfield Estate in Poplar.

In December 2015, the London Borough of Tower Hamlets approved plans to refurbish and privatise Balfron Tower. In this paper, I describe my collaborative work with the tower’s current and former residents in the preceding three years during which we campaigned for Balfron to remain a beacon for social housing. I structure the paper on the three phases this work followed; analysis of cultural, academic and archival material which foregrounds both the persistent accusations of failure that have afflicted the tower and the egalitarian principles integral to its vision and function as social housing; engagement with residents re-enacting Goldfinger's own methods of gathering empirical evidence in 1968, and; activism drawing on this material and evidence to contribute to informed public debate and planning decisions.

Through this paper, I illustrate how Balfron's history was mobilised to commodify the tower on the one hand, and to interrogate and object to this process on the other. In doing so, I advance an argument that the practice and guidance of heritage of post-war housing estates must not only pay tribute to the egalitarian principles at their foundations, it must enact them.     

Probability distributions of extreme pressure coefficients

Several thousand extreme pressure coefficients from repeated time-history samples, from a wall tap and a roof tap on a model of the Texas Tech University Building in a simulated atmospheric boundary layer, were used to better determine the appropriate probability distributions for the data. Both the Type I (Gumbel) Extreme Value Distribution, and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, with variable shape factor, k, were used to fit the data; in the latter case the method of probability weighted moments was used. The GEV with small positive shape factor was found to fit the data well. The distributions obtained indicated upper limits of peak pressures about 35% higher than the highest values actually measured.     

The r largest order statistics model for extreme wind speed estimation

The paper presents the statistical estimation of extreme wind speed using annually r largest order statistics (r-LOS) extracted from the time series of wind data. The method is based on a joint generalized extreme value distribution of r-LOS derived from the theory of Poisson process. The parameter estimation is based on the method of maximum likelihood. The hourly wind speed data collected at 30 stations in Ontario, Canada, are analyzed in the paper. The results of r-LOS method are compared with those obtained from the method of independent storms (MIS) and specifications of the Canadian National Building Code (CNBC-1995). The CNBC estimates are apparently conservative upper bound due to large sampling error associated with annual maxima analysis. Using the r-LOS method, the paper shows that the wind pressure data can be suitably modelled by the Gumbel distribution.     

Construction management and economics: the epistemology of a multidisciplinary design science

Research in the field of construction management and economics (CME) can be characterized as a multidisciplinary design science. Results from the sciences and humanities are necessary inputs for this field of research that deals with design, production and operation of the built environment. The output of CME research as multidisciplinary design science consists of three types of solution concepts: empirical generalizations based on statistical data analysis (technological laws), concepts that specify what to do, if a certain result is to be attained under given circumstances (functional rules), and insights in the interrelationship between design, production and operation of the built environment and social practice (socio‐technological understanding). Scientific justification of these solution concepts is obtained through testing them in the specific context of the built environment.     

Spatial distribution of small-leaved forests in the Kuznetsk Depression

This article concerns the spatial distribution patterns of small-leaved forests in the Kuznetsk Depression, where these communities are the forest components of zonal vegetation. Two levels of spatial forest heterogeneity are described. Depending on mesorelief, forest communities are organized into topo-ecological series, which differ in sets of components and area covered by different elements. On a larger scale, depending on climatic features in different parts of the depression, the spatial pattern of communities and topo-ecological series reflect the zonal structures. In general, the spatial forest distribution is considered as follows: the central part of the depression is covered by Artemisio – Betuletum communities in combination with Calamagrostio – Betuletum forests; approaching the eastern border of the depression, they change to Trollio – Populetum and Campanulo – Betuletum combinations; the southern part is occupied by communities of Campanulo – Betuletum, together with Saussureo – Populetum forests; in the north-western part the only forest association is Primulo – Betuletum. Throughout the entire region, in places with bad drainage occur communities of Carici – Betuletum. Based on climatic parameters, forest-steppe and sub-taiga sub-belts can be distinguished. Forest-steppe in its turn can be divided into an original fragment of plain forest-steppe and typical forest-steppe. In the eastern part of the depression, a sub-taiga sub-belt developed but in the western part, it exists outside the depression.     

Feasibility of cost‐benefit analysis for particulate matter air pollution control in Japan

In the present study, we identified cost benefit analysis (CBA) procedures and data availability to determine the programme feasibility of conducting an ex post CBA for particulate matter of a ten micron nominal diameter (PM‐10) air pollution control in Japan. This paper describes Freeman's benefits methodology to use for the benefits portion of the CBA, and the paper shows the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) costs methodology supplemented by Dixon et al.'s procedures to use for the costs portion of the analysis. The findings included (1) developing a procedure for estimating benefits based on Freeman, (2) developing a procedure for estimating costs based on EPA and Dixon et al., (3) determining that pre‐control data and post‐control data on PM‐10 costs and benefits are available from government agencies in Tokyo, and (4) determining that concentration response functions for health impacts are available from EPA. In conclusion it is feasible to conduct a CBA for Japan, based on the availability of data for an analysis of the urban metropolis of Tokyo.     

Predicting final cost for competitively bid construction projects using regression models

This paper studies the relationship between the low bid and completed cost for competitively bid highway projects. Data are analyzed from several agencies managing highway and dredging projects. A natural log transformation of the low bid and final cost was found to produce regression models for each agency that had high R and R² values. These models can predict completed project cost using only the project low bid as input. A separate regression model was determined for each agency. Based on the form of the calculated models it appears that highway agencies construct projects where the final cost increases as an increasing percentage of the low bid price as the project magnitude increases. The dredging projects appear to follow different mechanisms of cost increase than the highway projects and were not predicted as well by the regression models. The regression models can also be used for budgeting purposes by submitting the sum of the low bids for a group of projects as input. The regression models output a prediction of the cost of the group of projects that was found to be highly accurate.     

Framework of emergence: from chain of value to value constellation

ABSTRACT

For academic design programmes and research councils, finding mechanisms to measure impact and valuate co-design research projects is very difficult. The metric parameters – number of attendees, volume, shape, length – have shown to be insufficient. The subject matter, the subjects and matters, do not easily fit within these parameters, which fail to translate the value of a ‘constellation of affections’ that emerge throughout co-design processes. Emphasis on quantifiable impact derives from particular ways of understanding production, reproduction, and dissemination of knowledge. This paper understands academic design programmes as a technology to discuss axiology in co-design practices. This paper re-configures a techno-logic of value; from chain of value to value constellation, intersecting a co-design case study with readings of Simondon’s philosophy of technology and Barad’s agential realism. Ageing Playfully was a knowledge exchange project from The Creative Exchange programme, that involved people living with dementia and their caregivers co-designing interventions to boost mobility and well-being. At the core, this paper, explores an axiological move that informs a framework of emergence, a way of thinking in methods to account for the value of co-design as site of emergence.