Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.     

Does safety climate predict safety performance in Italy and the USA? Cross-cultural validation of a theoretical model of safety climate

Previous studies have acknowledged the relevance of assessing the measurement equivalence of safety related measures across different groups, and demonstrating whether the existence of disparities in safety perceptions might impair direct group comparisons. The Griffin and Neal (2000) model of safety climate, and the accompanying measure (Neal et al. [NGH], 2000), are both widely cited and utilized. Yet neither the model in its entirety nor the measure have been previously validated across different national contexts. The current study is the first to examine the NGH measurement equivalence by testing whether their model of safety climate predicting safety performance is tenable in both English speaking and non-English speaking countries. The study involved 616 employees from 21 organizations in the US, and 738 employees from 20 organizations in Italy. A multi-group confirmatory factor analytic approach was used to assess the equivalence of the measures across the two countries. Similarly, the structural model of relations among the NGH variables was examined in order to demonstrate its cross-country invariance. Results substantially support strict invariance across groups for the NGH safety scales. Moreover, the invariance across countries is also demonstrated for the effects of safety climate on safety knowledge and motivation, which in turn positively relate to both compliance and participation. Our findings have relevant theoretical implications by establishing measurement and relational equivalence of the NGH model. Practical implications are discussed for managers and practitioners dealing with multi-national organizational contexts. Future research should continue to investigate potential differences in safety related perceptions across additional non-English speaking countries.     

Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?

From a socio-economic perspective, the 'sharp end' of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular.     

Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?

Predictions of future climate are based on elaborate numerical computer models. As computational capacity increases and better observations become available, one would expect the model predictions to become more reliable. However, are they really improving, and how do we know? This paper discusses how current climate models are evaluated, why and where scientists have confidence in their models, how uncertainty in predictions can be quantified, and why models often tend to converge on what we observe but not on what we predict. Furthermore, it outlines some strategies on how the climate modelling community may overcome some of the current deficiencies in the attempt to provide useful information to the public and policy-makers.     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pliocene climate and equifinality

It has been suggested that, during the Pliocene (ca 5-1.8Ma), an El Ni?o state existed as a permanent rather than an intermittent feature; that is, the tropical Pacific Ocean was characterized by a much weaker east-west gradient than today. One line of inquiry used to investigate this idea relates modern El Ni?o teleconnections to Pliocene proxy data by comparing regional differences in precipitation and surface temperature with climate patterns associated with present-day El Ni?o events, assuming that agreement between Pliocene data and observations of modern El Ni?o events supports this interpretation. Here, we examine this assumption by comparing outputs from a suite of Mid-Pliocene climate simulations carried out with the UK Met Office climate model. Regional patterns of climate change associated with changes in model boundary conditions are compared with observed El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate that many of the proposed 'permanent El Ni?o' surface temperature and precipitation patterns are observable in Mid-Pliocene climate simulations even when they display variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or when forced with a modern east-west SST gradient. Our experiments highlight the possibility that the same outcome may be achieved through different initial conditions (equifinality); an important consideration for reconstructed patterns of regional Mid-Pliocene climate.     

Psychosocial safety climate moderates the job demand–resource interaction in predicting workgroup distress

Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) arises from workplace policies, practices, and procedures for the protection of worker psychological health and safety that are largely driven by management. Many work stress theories are based on the fundamental interaction hypothesis – that a high level of job demands (D) will lead to psychological distress and that this relationship will be offset when there are high job resources (R). However we proposed that this interaction really depends on the organizational context; in particular high levels of psychosocial safety climate will enable the safe utilization of resources to reduce demands. The study sample consisted of police constables from 23 police units (stations) with longitudinal survey responses at two time points separated by 14 months (Time 1, N = 319, Time 2, N = 139). We used hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effect of the proposed three-way interaction term (PSC × D × R) on change in workgroup distress variance over time. Specifically we confirmed the interaction between emotional demands and emotional resources (assessed at the individual level), in the context of unit psychosocial safety climate (aggregated individual data). As predicted, high emotional resources moderated the positive relationship between emotional demands and change in workgroup distress but only when there were high levels of unit psychosocial safety climate. Results were confirmed using a split-sample analysis. Results support psychosocial safety climate as a property of the organization and a target for higher order controls for reducing work stress. The ‘right’ climate enables resources to do their job.     

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the?mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.     

Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 degrees C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.     

Development of freezing–thawing processes of foundation soils surrounding the China–Russia Crude Oil Pipeline in the permafrost areas under a warming climate

The proposed China–Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP) will be subjected to strong frost heave and thaw settlement of the surrounding soil as it traverses permafrost and seasonally frozen ground areas in Northeastern China. The freezing–thawing processes, the development of the maximum frozen cylinder in taliks and thawed cylinder in permafrost areas, and the variations in the maximum freezing depths under the pipeline in taliks and thawing depths in different permafrost regions near Mo'he station, the first pumping station in China, were studied in detail using numerical methods in this paper. The inlet oil temperature at Mo'he station was assumed to vary from 10 to − 6 °C in a sine wave form during the preliminary design phase. Research results showed that the freezing–thawing processes of soils surrounding the buried pipeline had distinct differences from those in the undisturbed ground profile in permafrost areas. In summer, there was downward thawing from the ground surface and upward and downward thawing from the pipeline's surface once the temperature of the oil rose above 0 °C. In winter, downward freezing began from the ground surface but upward and downward cooling of the cylinder around the pipeline didn't begin until the temperature of the oil dropped below 0 °C. However, in the undisturbed ground profile, downward thawing from the ground surface occurred in summer and downward freezing from the ground surface and upward freezing from the permafrost table occurred in winter. The maximum thawing depths and thawed cylinder around the pipeline in warm permafrost enlarged with elapsing time and decreasing water content of the soils. In taliks, the maximum freezing depths and frozen cylinder around the pipeline kept shrinking with elapsing time and increasing water content of the soils. The freezing–thawing processes and development of the thawed and frozen cylinders around the pipeline were muted by any insulation layer surrounding the pipeline. Insulation had better thermal moderating on the heat exchange between the pipeline and the surrounding soils during the early operating period. But its role slowly weakened after a long-term operating. Research results will provide the basis for assessment and forecasting of engineering geological conditions, analysis of mechanical stability of the pipeline, foundation design, and pipeline construction and maintenance.