基于改进Dijkstra算法的人群反馈调节疏散

针对苏州市金鸡湖城市广场在突发情况下的人群疏散问题,建立了基于实时动态的疏散网络路径规划模型,分析了大型公众区域复杂环境对人群疏散效率的影响.同时提出以人群逃离危险区域的终止时间作为权值参数改进Dijkstra算法,并且利用反馈补偿机制合理分配各出口的疏散人数,实现人群疏散的动态调整和路径规划.通过Pathfinder...     

基于Agent的应急疏散模型研究

根据突发事件出现的等级,选择安全区域,并采用适当的疏散方式,选择受灾区域的周边安全区域作为避难所;通过分析影响应急情况下人员选择目的地的因素,对人员疏散行为直观分析并结合人机功效评估,对疏散行为规范,建立基于Agent的应急疏散人员避难所选择模型。通过设定可能影响人员疏散的多种可能因素,该模型能够比较真实地模拟紧急情况下的人员疏散状态。仿真过程与实际情况相似,方法可广泛用于人员应急疏散过程分析研究。     

人群应急疏散可视仿真研究进展和问题

人群应急疏散可视仿真是用智能体来模拟具有自主感知、情绪和行为能力的人群个体,并采用3维可视的方式来直观呈现人群应急疏散情景,可以为制定人群应急预案提供形象直观的分析方法。本文从人群仿真数据的来源、人群导航模型的构建、人群行为模型、人群情绪感染、人群渲染5个方面概述目前研究的进展,然后从仿真模型的可验证性、人群疏散导航模型的构建、人与环境的物理模型、动物逃生实验与仿真、疏散中的社会行为表现以及人群情绪的可视计算6个角度讨论需要进一步研究的问题。针对需要深入研究的问题,指出借助于紧急事件的视频监控分析和虚拟人群情景的用户调查,有助于完善人群仿真模型。结合物理模型,可以更准确地描述人群应急疏散场景。开展动物逃生实验分析,有助于完善人群运动导航算法。建立人群社会行为模型,可以更详细描述疏散中人群行为的多样性。构建基于多通道感知的人群情绪感染计算方法,可以详尽描述情绪感染的过程。人群应急疏散行为的可视仿真研究在城市的安全管理方面具有重要的应用前景,但其研究仍存在很多亟待解决的问题,综合地运用多学科知识,完善实验手段是进一步推动研究的关键所在。     

Behavioral,data-driven,agent-based evacuation simulation for building safety design using machine learning and discrete choice models

To improve occupant safety during building emergencies, evacuation simulations have been widely used for building safety design. Since occupant behavior is a determining factor for the outcome of building emergencies, accurately capturing how occupants make decisions and integrating occupants’ decision-making processes in evacuation simulations is important. In this study, based on the results of fire evacuation experiments in a virtual metro station, how different social (crowd flow) and environmental (visual access and vertical movement) factors would affect individuals’ wayfinding behavior was predicted using machine learning and discrete choice models. The trained models were further employed in agent-based evacuation simulations to examine crowd evacuation performance under different building design scenarios. Both the machine learning and discrete choice models could accurately predict individuals’ directional choices during emergency evacuations. Different building attributes could collectively influence occupant behavior, leading to distinct exit choices and evacuation times. While both the trained machine learning and discrete choice models generated similar results, the discrete choice model had better interpretability. Moreover, by comparing the trained models in this study with a model developed in a prior study, it was found that agents had significantly distinct responses to different building designs. Critical factors (e.g., type and size of buildings, occupants’ familiarity with the building) for the applicability of evacuation models were identified. Furthermore, recommendations were provided for future research that aims at employing evacuation simulations for building design evaluation and optimization.     

人群疏散虚拟现实模拟系统——Guarder

人群疏散的虚拟现实模拟就是利用虚拟现实技术,在计算机生成空间中建立公共设施和人群的三维模型,设定各种可能发生的安全危机和相应的疏散预案,模拟并三维地展示人群疏散场景;通过对模拟结果进行统计分析,可以验证人群疏散应急预案的合理性和有效性.介绍了人群疏散模拟虚拟现实系统Guarder设计的核心思想,提出了技术框架,详细阐述了其中的复杂环境语义表示、群体运动仿真等关键技术,并给出了应用实例,最后列举了几个前沿研究问题.     

智能电网脆弱性综合评价模型构建及仿真

解决当前我国智能电网连锁故障导致的脆弱性问题,加强对电网的脆弱性评估是提高电网运行能力的重点。对此,结合当前智能电网脆弱性评估方法,提出一种基于TOPSIS的脆弱性综合评估方法。为提高综合评价的客观性,引入熵权法-AHP层次分析法对权重计算进行优化,然后通过TOPSIS模型完成对智能电网脆弱性的整体性评价。最后通过某实例,验证了上述方案的可行性,并得出我国电网在防御人为威胁等方面具有加强的优势,但是在信息安全方面存在一定的劣势。     

复杂条件下多层建筑人员协作疏散仿真

研究具有复杂多层协作过程条件下的人员疏散控制系统,就能够比较准确地模拟突发情况下人员的疏散情况。本文对元胞自动机进行了改进,综合人员个体特征和从众心理等各种复杂因素,对具有复杂障碍物的多层建筑中人员疏散过程进行了计算机仿真分析,并给出了人员疏散效率与人员的从众系数、障碍物及出口位置等因素的关系。该仿真能够很好地模拟大型公共场所发生突发事件时人员疏散的情况,对在复杂地理环境及人员特性条件下的多层建筑突发事件疏散策略制定具有一定的实际参考意义。     

Crowd simulation for emergency response using BDI agents based on immersive virtual reality

This paper presents a novel methodology involving a Virtual Reality (VR)-based Belief, Desire, and Intention (BDI) software agent to construct crowd simulation and demonstrates the use of the same for crowd evacuation management under terrorist bomb attacks in public areas. The proposed BDI agent framework allows modeling of human behavior with a high degree of fidelity. The realistic attributes that govern the BDI characteristics of the agent are reverse-engineered by conducting human-in-the-loop experiments in the VR-based Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE). To enhance generality and interoperability of the proposed crowd simulation modeling scheme, input data models have been developed to define environment attributes (e.g., maps, demographics, evacuation management parameters). The validity of the proposed data models are tested with two different evacuation scenarios. Finally, experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effect of various crowd evacuation management parameters on the key performance indicators in the evacuation scenario such as crowd evacuation rate and densities. The results reveal that constructed simulation can be used as an effective emergency management tool.     

A review of behavior mechanisms and crowd evacuation animation in emergency exercises

Emergency exercises are an efficient approach for preventing serious damage and harm, including loss of life and property and a wide range of adverse social effects, during various public emergencies. Among various factors affecting the value of emergency exercises, including their design, development, conduct, evaluation, and improvement planning, this paper emphasizes the focal role of evacuees and their behavior. We address two concerns: What are the intrinsic reasons behind human behavior? How do we model and exhibit human behavior? We review studies investigating the mechanisms of psychological behavior and crowd evacuation animation. A comprehensive analysis of logical patterns of behavior and crowd evacuation is presented first. The interactive effects of information (objective and subjective), psychology (panic, small groups, and conflicting roles), and six kinds of behavior contribute to a more effective understanding of an emergency scene and assist in making scientific decisions. Based on these studies, a wide range of perspectives on crowd formation and evacuation animation models is summa- rized. Collision avoidance is underlined as a special topic. Finally, this paper highlights some of the technical challenges and key questions to be addressed by future developments in this rapidly developing field.     

Technology for simulating crowd evacuation behaviors

This paper presents a model for simulating crowd evacuation and investigates three widely recognized problems. For the space continuity problem, this paper presents two computation algorithms: one uses grid space to evaluate the coordinates of the obstacle's bounding box and the other employs the geometry rule to establish individual evacuation routes. For the problem of collision, avoidance, and excess among the individuals, this paper computes the generalized force and friction force and then modifies the direction of march to obtain a speed model based on the crowd density and real time speed. For the exit selection problem, this paper establishes a method of selecting the exits by combining the exit's crowd state with the individuals. Finally, a particle system is used to simulate the behavior of crowd evacuation and produces useful test results.     

行人运动建模技术综述*

随着计算机数值模拟技术的迅速发展,行人运动仿真技术开始成为人群疏散仿真、城市规划和计算机疏散软件开发方面的研究热点。介绍了对行人建模仿真的初步研究,重点介绍了基于行人行为的微观行人运动建模方法,并对各个模型进行了比较分析和研究展望。     

基于地面场粒子群优化算法的高密度人群应急疏散建模

针对非常规突发事件环境下高密度人群的拥挤管理和快速疏散问题,提出一种由感知层、传输层、计算层和应用层构成的多层结构人群疏散信息物理系统（E-CPS）体系框架。在E-CPS体系框架计算层中将静态地面场（FF）建模规则引入经典粒子群优化（PSO）模型,提出地面场PSO （FF-PSO）人群疏散模型,该模型同时具备静态场规则简单、计算快和PSO模型快速搜索、快速收敛的优点。此外,FF-PSO模型中构建了一种新的适应度函数,实现了疏散策略的动态选择,并通过数值仿真及实例仿真验证了FF-PSO模型在拥挤管理中的可行性和有效性。国家会展中心（上海）的实例仿真结果表明,考虑拥堵管理比仅考虑距离最短平均每分钟可多疏散66人,疏散时间节省19 min,疏散效率提升13.4%。     

基于深度Q网络的人群疏散机器人运动规划算法

针对公共场合密集人群在紧急情况下疏散的危险性和效果不理想的问题，提出一种基于深度Q网络（DQN）的人群疏散机器人的运动规划算法。首先通过在原始的社会力模型中加入人机作用力构建出人机社会力模型，从而利用机器人对行人的作用力来影响人群的运动状态；然后基于DQN设计机器人运动规划算法，将原始行人运动状态的图像输入该网络并输出机器人的运动行为，在这个过程中将设计的奖励函数反馈给网络使机器人能够在"环境-行为-奖励"的闭环过程中自主学习；最后经过多次迭代，机器人能够学习在不同初始位置下的最优运动策略，最大限度地提高总疏散人数。在构建的仿真环境里对算法进行训练和评估。实验结果表明，与无机器人的人群疏散算法相比，基于DQN的人群疏散机器人运动规划算法使机器人在三种不同初始位置下将人群疏散效率分别增加了16.41%、10.69%和21.76%，说明该算法能够明显提高单位时间内人群疏散的数量，具有灵活性和有效性。     

人群疏散平移矩阵算法

建筑物的通行能力研究近年来受到广泛关注,安全高效地流通人群是专家学者研究的重点。首先,通过一组节点和边的定义将建筑物表示为网络,进而利用Dijkstra最短路算法生成最短路径集合,最后在该集合的基础上提出平移矩阵算法,利用0-1矩阵的更新模拟人群在建筑路径上的流动过程。通过设置多组教学楼疏散场景并与Pathfinder软件的对比来验证平移矩阵算法的有效性。对比结果显示,不同密度下两种方法的总疏散时间差都约为50 s,而运算速度平移矩阵算法比Pathfinder软件快10~110倍。该算法为人群疏散的快速模拟提供了新思路,为疏散策略的实时生成提供了可能性。     

考虑分类人群行为的建筑疏散模型研究

人员行为决定了应急疏散时人群的时空分布,是研究疏散动力学的关键。考虑疏散时人员的心理特性与身份状态,将人群分为恐慌人群、易感人群、冷静人群和管理人群四类,基于社会力模型表达各类人群的疏散行为特征,并开展不同情境的疏散动力学过程分析。研究发现行人的恐慌心理具有传播作用,对其他行人的疏散行为有明显的影响,而管理人员的引导作用对疏散有积极影响,当其比例在10%~15%的时候效果显著,且合适的位置更易提高疏散效率;人员的服从水平越大,疏散效率越高。提出的分类人群疏散行为模型能为建筑安全疏散评估与优化提供理论支持。     

基于突发事件影响力传播的双向人流疏散仿真

当突发事件发生时,行人行走行为会因为突发事件本身以及突发事件在人群中的传播而改变。对于突发事件影响下的行人行走特征的研究能够提高人流疏散的效率。针对现有研究中数据获取方式的不足,对真实行人场景视频进行图像处理,提取相关数据后分析了无突发事件时行人一般行走特性。针对突发事件下的行人流,利用k-邻近算法和合力的思想描述了突发事件的影响传播和突发事件下行人流的自组织现象,并由此提出一种新的元胞自动机模型,该模型中的行人元胞会受到正常行走、突发事件、安全标识这三个因素所抽象产生的三个作用力的影响。利用模型对突发情况下的双向人流疏散进行仿真,实验结果表明,当安全标识的距离为0、10、20个元胞时,在小范围行人通道中安全标识分布的距离对人群疏散作用不明显;通过对人群间是否存在影响力的研究发现,疏散的效果主要受到附近行人对突发事件传播的影响;突发事件的影响程度太大或影响范围过小都会引发拥堵,不利于人群的疏散。仿真结果与真实世界中的双向行人流疏散情况基本吻合。     

结合最短路径改进的社会力人群疏散仿真模型

社会力模型广泛应用于人群疏散仿真,针对该模型在仿真过程中存在行人停滞不前、无法通过非凸边形障碍物和疏散路径与行人实际选择的路径不相符等问题,提出了一种社会力改进模型。该模型基于场景中的障碍物生成路径节点,利用这些节点生成无向图,同时考虑了节点的安全系数和拥挤系数对节点通行性的影响生成最短疏散路径。通过改进后的社会力模型进行了多种场景的仿真实验,实验结果显示行人在复杂障碍物场景中能有效绕过障碍物,生成合理的疏散路径,表明该模型有效改善社会力模型,使人群疏散仿真更加真实。     

A model for evacuation risk assessment with consideration of pre- and post-disaster factors

In urban areas, the occurrence of disasters can cause extensive damage to human society. For this reason, evacuation, regarded as a critical course of action to relocate people and property, helps to alleviate loss of life and property to a great extent. Risk associated with evacuation is an abstract concept that cannot be easily conceptualized. This paper develops a model for assessing and visualizing the risks associated with the evacuation process in response to potential catastrophes. Understanding of evacuation risk, the potential for losing transport connections and the difficulty of transferring rescue resources, was previously limited by considering pre-disaster factors only. This study mitigates such limitation by extending previous research to include the contingent post-disaster factors that have received scant attention to date. Two contingent post-disaster factors: the spatial impact of the disaster and the potential for traffic congestion caused by the evacuee routing behaviors, are discussed in detail and integrated into the model along with other pre-disaster factors. A case study on the transportation network of Beijing, China is used to demonstrate the value of the model. This paper asserts that the notion of evacuation risk is not a static evaluation of such factors as road vulnerability; rather it involves a dynamic process where contingent factors associated with disastrous events play a role. This model can help city emergency planners to identify urban infrastructures that may hinder an efficient evacuation process because of their deficient configuration.     

Do people follow the crowd in building emergency evacuation? A cross-cultural immersive virtual reality-based study

This study aimed to examine the influence of crowd flow on human evacuation behavior during building fire emergencies, when evacuees perceive high uncertainty in the environment and experience mental stress. Evacuation experiments were conducted in an immersive virtual metro station, in which each participant was presented with one of three different patterns of crowd flow and asked to complete an evacuation task. The patterns of crowd flow were represented by non-player characters that split differently at each wayfinding decision point in the metro station. The experiments were conducted in Beijing, Los Angeles and London. The results showed that uneven splits of crowd flow motivated participants under mental stress to follow the majority of the crowd. This influence of crowd flow was generally consistent over the course of evacuation, and such consistency could be reinforced by stronger directional information conveyed by the crowd flow as well as positive feedback from the outcomes of previous wayfinding decisions. The results also indicated that the influence of crowd flow was significant in all three cultures represented by the three cities, however, the impact of culture on how participants would respond to the directional information conveyed by the crowd flow was insignificant.     

Integration of simulation and optimization for evacuation planning

Evacuation is a time critical process in which the highest priority is to get those people who may be affected by a disaster out of the danger zone as fast as possible. For disaster-prone areas, authorities often distribute evacuation plans well in advance, or encourage the population to prepare themselves for eventual disasters. This paper presents an approach to such planning ahead for evacuation that tightly couples optimization and traffic simulation in order to determine optimal evacuation time and exit from the area for each evacuee. In this paper, we discuss the approach’s properties and illustrate its performance using two case studies of wildfire-prone areas in the state of Victoria, Australia. The results show that our approach can lead to significant improvements when compared to ad-hoc evacuation, but these improvements also strongly depend on population density and road network topology. More generally, our research highlights the significant benefits of tightly coupling optimization and simulation for evacuation modeling.