论我国核电发展的战略地位

核电在我国能源发展中占有重要的战略地位.本文从能源安全、能源需求、气候变化、生态文明及科技创新等角度,重新审视在当前形势下的我国核电发展的战略地位.     

中外非化石能源统计分析的启示

通过对世界主要国家一次能源供应构成的分析,发达国家基本上都完成了第一次和第二次能源大转换,已不存在生物质能的传统利用,煤炭占一次能源消费的比重已大大下降,石油和天然气的比重有了很大提高。核电、水电、生物质能已成为发达国家非化石能源的主体,但随着资源的日渐枯竭,今后的方向是发展风电、太阳能发电等新能源。发展中国家尚未完成第一次和第二次能源大转换,在一次能源构成中石油、天然气的比重还较低,核电、水电和生物质能的开发还有很大潜力可以发掘。因此,发达国家和发展中国家的能源发展战略是不同的,前者主要发展风电、太阳能发电,而后者应发展核电、水电和生物质能。我国提出逐步提高非化石能源的比重,完全符合我国目前能源工业的现状。我国非化石能源占一次能源消费总量的比重有不同的计算口径,应明确非化石能源的统计口径,对非化石能源进行全面统计。为了完成我国2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,应尽快把落后的能源工业改造为现代能源产业,加快完成第一次、第二次能源大转换,同时应大力鼓励增加电力进口。     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅴ)——非化石能源的需求与碳排放

随着技术的进步,非化石能源将成为重要的一次能源,其对化石能源的替代将对碳减排起到举足轻重的作用。核能属于不排碳的新能源,生物质能具有零排碳甚至负排碳的特点,其他可再生能源包括水能、风能和太阳能等均属清洁的超低排碳能源。先进的核能压水堆技术成熟,型式已发展到第三代,安全性不断提高。尽管发生了日本福岛核危机,但不应责怪核能本身,仍需要在高度重视安全的前提下大力发展核电。我国核电规模不宜过分压缩,2050年核电规模为300GW,发电量2100TW.h,占总用电量份额20%的目标比较恰当。用生物质秸秆制造燃料乙醇、用林业废弃物制造合成柴油和用废食用油脂制造生物柴油能显著降低运输业的排碳,7×108t干生物质可替代1×108t进口原油,在高油价时代其意义不言而喻。我国曾推广秸秆发电,但经济效益和社会效益有限,建议在生物质秸秆制造燃料乙醇达到产业化后不再扩大秸秆发电规模,以保证燃料乙醇产业的原料来源。水能、风能和太阳能发电量占总电量的比率是衡量绿色电力的重要指标,中国2050年这三种可再生能源发电量约3600TW.h,仅占总用电量的36%。非化石能源发电量占总发电量的份额是一项重要衡量指标,IEA在Blue Map等情景中将2050年该百分比定为61%～75%;中国工程院预测的我国2050年该百分比为70%。但如果2050年的核电装机容量为400GW时可提供总发电量的28%,加上水电、风电、太阳能三种可再生能源发电提供的36%,合计为64%,仍然存在6%的缺口;若核电装机容量只能达到300GW,缺口将达13%。如靠化石能源来弥补发电量的不足,将带来增加碳排放的后果。     

Coupling of copper–chloride hybrid thermochemical water splitting cycle with a desalination plant for hydrogen production from nuclear energy

Energy and environmental concerns have motivated research on clean energy resources. Nuclear energy has the potential to provide a significant share of energy supply without contributing to environmental emissions and climate change. Nuclear energy has been used mainly for electric power generation, but hydrogen production via thermochemical water decomposition provides another pathway for the utilization of nuclear thermal energy. One option for nuclear-based hydrogen production via thermochemical water decomposition uses a copper–chloride (Cu–Cl) cycle. Another societal concern relates to supplies of fresh water. Thus, to avoid causing one problem while solving another, hydrogen could be produced from seawater rather than limited fresh water sources. In this study we analyze a coupling of the Cu–Cl cycle with a desalination plant for hydrogen production from nuclear energy and seawater. Desalination technologies are reviewed comprehensively to determine the most appropriate option for the Cu–Cl cycle and a thermodynamic analysis and several parametric studies of this coupled system are presented for various configurations.     

Renewable and nuclear power: A common future?

Nuclear power and renewable energy are the main options to bring down the carbon intensity of commercial energy supply. What technology is unlimited backstop supply depends on its performance on the sustainability criteria: democratic decided, globally accessible, environmental benign, low risk, affordable.     

Will lack of energy lead to the demise of high-technology countries in this century?

Hubbert's Peak will be reached by 2011. Thereafter, the world economy will be threatened by energy starvation. Nuclear energy costs much more than certain renewables: the needed 1800 reactors would take 50 years to build. Wind energy could supply the whole country: its building time might be reduced to 10 years.     

新时期我国核电发展现状及对策分析研究

我国目前能源短缺较为严重,而能源结构又以煤炭为主。通过增加煤炭产量保证能源供给,将受到资源、环境和运输等多方面的制约,难以为继。核电是当前世界上技术成熟、并可同时实现大规模减排温室气体的安全清洁能源,发展核电是我国能源的重要战略选择。本文就核电的发展现状、我国发展核电的重要意义及发展对策进行了分析。     

关于核燃料技术经济性的探讨

从宏观和微观角度对核燃料的技术经济性进行评价分析.核燃料热值高,比化石燃料产出净能高3～4倍.核燃料(核电)拥有巨大的温室气体减排潜力,燃烧时不排放二氧化硫、氮氧化物,不产生烟尘、煤渣,是节能减排效果非常好的清洁能源.据IPCC的研究,在各种发电技术中,石油的温室气体排放量为600～1200g二氧化碳当量/(kW.h),煤、褐煤为800—1800g二氧化碳当量/(kW.h),而核电的排放量平均值仅为10g二氧化碳当量/(kW.h).至2030年,可再生能源发电和核电可减排温室气体近60×108t二氧化碳当量,其中核电约占1/3.核燃料资源丰富,可循环利用、实现增殖,从而扩大了核燃料资源.现有天然铀热中子堆可用百年;快中子堆可提高铀资源利用率60倍以上,可用千年;聚变核燃料氘可供人类使用百亿年,且无放射性.可见,核能是化石能源最有前途的替代能源.同时,核燃料能量密度高,体积/小,所需运力少,价格稳定,供应可靠.核电的投资成本分别高出煤电、气电约50％和140％,而发电总成本煤电、气电仍比核电高出约30％,根本原因是核燃料费用低,只占发电总成本的23％.核电的燃料成本优势除弥补了自身投资成本高的缺点以外,还形成了发电总成本低的竞争优势.     

Integrated hydrogen production options based on renewable and nuclear energy sources

Due to varied global challenges, potential energy solutions are needed to reduce environmental impact and improve sustainability. Many of the renewable energy resources are of limited applicability due to their reliability, quality, quantity, and density. Thus, the need remains for additional sustainable and reliable energy sources that are sufficient for large-scale energy supply to complement and/or back up renewable energy sources. Nuclear energy has the potential to contribute a significant share of energy supply with very limited impacts to global climate change. Hydrogen production via thermochemical water decomposition is a potential process for direct utilization of nuclear thermal energy. Nuclear hydrogen and power systems can complement renewable energy sources by enabling them to meet a larger extent of global energy demand by providing energy when the wind does not blow, the sun does not shine, and geothermal and hydropower energies are not available. Thermochemical water splitting with a copper–chlorine (Cu–Cl) cycle could be linked with nuclear and selected renewable energy sources to decompose water into its constituents, oxygen and hydrogen, through intermediate copper and chlorine compounds. In this study, we present an integrated system approach to couple nuclear and renewable energy systems for hydrogen production. In this regard, nuclear and renewable energy systems are reviewed to establish some appropriate integrated system options for hydrogen production by a thermochemical cycle such as Cu–Cl cycle. Several possible applications involving nuclear independent and nuclear assisted renewable hydrogen production are proposed and discussed. Some of the considered options include storage of hydrogen and its conversion to electricity by fuel cells when needed.     

我国核电的可持续发展初探

对世界核能概况和我国的核能现状做了较深入的分析,并就我国核电可持续发展的问题提出了若干建议;同时以广三核作为核电国产化的驱动项目,预测了我国核电发展的前景。     

Prospects of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy development in Islamic Republic of Iran

This paper presents the feasible contributive share of electricity generation from each energy resources. This includes the economical feasibilities and all demographic projections involved in forecasting methodology, which explicitly reflect on overall national power demand projection in the Energy prospects of Islamic Republic of Iran till 2033. The Energy demand and reliability are presented with a view to elaborate on significant role and required capacity of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) towards fulfillment of an energy mix policy in the country.     

Approaches to nuclear fuel assurance Balancing nonproliferation with energy security

Nuclear fuel assurances are the formal promises that international suppliers extend to consumers of nuclear fuel for the twin purpose of meeting energy security needs and discouraging the proliferation of nuclear weapons. This article examines various international perspectives on the implementation of fuel assurances and suggests that a supplier's unilateral ability to solve either problem may be far more limited than is commonly believed. The relevance of fuel assurances in future international regimes for nuclear energy will be dependent upon the future structure of the nuclear market and the political linkages that are made between energy security and nonproliferation commitments.     

Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs

The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that as of July 2009 there were 52 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. This paper characterizes and evaluates these “Newcomer Countries” in terms of their capacity and motivations to develop nuclear power. It quantifies factors historically associated with the development of nuclear energy programs and then benchmarks the Newcomers against these data. Countries with established nuclear power programs, particularly where nuclear facilities are privately owned, are typically larger, wealthier and politically stable economies with high government effectiveness. Nuclear power was historically launched during periods of high electricity consumption growth. Other indicators for the potential of nuclear power include: the size of the national grid, the presence of international grid connections and security of fuel supply for electricity production. We identify 10 Newcomers which most closely resemble the Established Nuclear Power Countries and thus are most likely to deploy nuclear energy, 10 countries where the development of nuclear energy is uncertain due to high political instability, 14 countries with lower capacities where pursuing nuclear energy may require especially strong international cooperation and 18 countries where the development of nuclear power is less likely due to their significantly lower capacities and motivations.     

On the dual deuterium/deuteron nature of D charge distribution in the Ti host matrix: A DFT analysis

In the present work we have investigated the charge distribution on deuterium atom inside a titanium host matrix and their interaction energy. This analysis is motivated by the role that Ti-D alloys play in nuclear processes, i.e. the reported neutron generation as a consequence of the pressure exerted on such hybrid systems. A two-fold DFT procedure has been employed in order to carry out our analysis, namely a periodic and a cluster approach. Both show that the D atom, at variance with the prediction by T. Asami et al. (T. Asami, Journal of Condensed Matter Nuclear Science 2011; 5:7–16; T Asami, N. Sano, Journal of Condensed Matter Nuclear Science 2012; 9:1–9), tends to avoid the deuteron form when entering the Ti tetrahedral site. In particular, according to the cluster approach results, both the Voronoi Deformation Density atomic charge analysis and the interaction energy decomposition analysis indicate that the deuterium enters the tetrahedron cage retaining its electron, provided that a high energy barrier could be overcome. The largest contribution to the interaction energy is the charge-transfer orbital interaction term but the sizeable energy barrier is mainly due to the electrostatic repulsive interaction between Ti cluster and D⁺. We thus conclude that the experimental conditions (i.e., the combination of pressure and temperature) could be responsible for the hypothesized “switching on” of the deuterium-to-deuteron charge oxidation.     

核磁共振法与索氏提取法测定能源植物种子含油量的比较研究

种子含油量是衡量能源植物开发潜力的一个重要指标。为寻找快速、准确测定种子含油量的方法,采用核磁共振法和索氏提取法测定了4种潜在能源植物的种子含油量,并对其进行了分析比较。结果表明:核磁共振法测定的种子含油量明显高于索氏提取法,其中,两种方法测得的曼陀罗种子含油量分别为28.87%和25.91%,海滨锦葵分别为17.74%和14.78%,中国沙棘分别为9.53%和6.82%,蓖麻分别为47.01%和44.31%。核磁共振法测定种子含油量具有简便、无损坏等特点,弥补了索氏提取法耗时,不能提取磷脂、糖脂、脂蛋白等结合态脂类的不足,可用于能源植物种子含油量的快速测定,为筛选潜在能源植物新种质资源提供了可靠方法。     

Analytical model of carbon dioxide emission with energy payback effect

An analytical model is proposed to account for carbon emission behaviour during replacement of power source from fossil fuel to renewable energy in which sustainability of energy supply is stressed. Logistic function of time is assumed for producing renewable power sources. Analyses show that energy payback time (EPT) should be much shorter than the doubling time of manufacturing cycle to secure adequate available energy during, as well as after, the replacement. A nuclear plant, small hydropower plant, wind power plant and photovoltaic cell are taken as representative candidates and investigated as options to replace fossil power until toward the end of this century. Nuclear or small hydropower plants are promising candidates but the photovoltaic cell needs further development efforts to reduce EPT and avoid energy expense after the replacement.     

Nuclear energy in China: Contested regimes

China is leading the recent revival of nuclear energy programs; it is building not one but four nuclear power plants at a time. The government is determined to expand nuclear energy programs and the general public supports the efforts. China also has the financial and human resources to achieve the desired objective—building 40 GW generation capacity by 2020. The politics surrounding nuclear energy expansion, however, is fluid and competition for influence is vibrant. Nuclear energy issues have become openly contested between general economic and specific industry interests and between international and domestic perspectives and designs. This article examines the political dynamics in China to show how the rival players and their competing interests shape the strategy of nuclear energy development.     

Steps toward passively safe, proliferation-resistant nuclear power

After about a 30-year hiatus of construction in the US but not in all involved countries, the designs for an improved water-cooled nuclear reactor will hopefully be developed by a consortium of nuclear reactor builders and users under an agreement with the US Department of Energy (DOE) and review by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The construction of high-temperature, helium-cooled pebble-bed or prismatic reactors may herald the entry of new, safer, and less costly types of reactors to replace the water-cooled reactors of the past and current types. Nuclear breeder reactors hold the promise of limitless energy supplies without the use of fossil fuels or renewables at acceptable costs but this development program has been stalled periodically, especially in the US, when abundant low-cost uranium sources were added to the supply side.     

Sustainable energy planning decision using the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: choosing energy technology in Malaysia

Energy consumption for developing countries is sharply increasing due to the higher economic growth due to industrialisation along with population growth and urbanisation. The increasing demand of energy leads to global energy crisis. Selecting the best energy technology and conservation requires both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. The fuzzy set-based approach is one of the well-known theories to handle fuzziness, uncertainty in decision-making and vagueness of information. This paper proposes a new method of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP) to deal with the uncertainty in decision-making. The new IF-AHP is applied to establish a preference in the sustainable energy planning decision-making problem. Three decision-makers attached with Malaysian government agencies were interviewed to provide linguistic judgement prior to analysing with the new IF-AHP. Nuclear energy has been decided as the best alternative in energy planning which provides the highest weight among all the seven alternatives.     

The nuclear issue as seen by a competitor

As production of oil and natural gas declines, coal is increasingly likely to be used as a substitute, both directly and indirectly. Nuclear power can take over some of the load but the rate at which it can penetrate the overall energy market is likely to be constrained by uranium supply in the case of thermal reactors and by the relatively slow rate of plutonium production in breeders.