基于水汽通量放大法的可能最大暴雨估算改进方法

我国可能最大暴雨(PMP)估算方法以暴雨成因分析法使用最为普遍,传统的水汽通量放大法受风速日变化差异大影响,估算得到的PMP明显偏大。对此,采用"风向玫瑰图"改进传统水汽通量放大法,根据研究区域稳定风场情况对实测资料进行分组,确定暴雨水汽的主要入流方向和相应水汽通量值,并应用水汽通量放大倍比对实测典型暴雨进行放大推求可能最大暴雨(PMP)。以东南沿海某核电厂为例进行应用研究,并与其他方法计算结果对比,验证了所提方法的合理性。     

PMP估算中地形对山地暴雨增幅作用的影响

在山区可能最大降水(PMP)估算中,当确定移置附近气候相似区某场灾害性特大暴雨后,就必须定量估算山地地形对暴雨的增幅作用,以便在移置之前定量消除地形对被移置暴雨的影响。为了定量估算辐合雨分量及其时空分布形态,以福建莆田地区和香港地区两场不同类型的暴雨为例,基于福建东南沿海地区84个站点和香港地区77个站点1、3、6、12、24h的5个时段的历史年最大雨量资料和实测降雨资料,应用"分时段地形增强因子(SDOIF)"暴雨分割技术分割香港20080607和莆田19991009两场暴雨,探讨山区暴雨期间地形对暴雨的定量影响及其空间分布模式。研究发现山区地形对暴雨有着增幅作用,且随历时增加而逐渐增强,越靠近暴雨中心增强幅度也越显著。同时地形增强因子也受高程的影响,低海拔处地形增强因子的增速高于高海拔处。经暴雨分割后的辐合雨空间分布形态与实测降雨的形态也基本一致。可见基于极值暴雨历史系列统计特性分析及暴雨天气背景和地形地貌特征分析相结合的SDOIF暴雨分割技术,能够有效地反映特定地形对暴雨的增幅作用及其空间分布形态,为山区暴雨移置提供了可靠依据。     

虎跳峡水电站区间可能最大暴雨的研究

对虎跳峡水电站奔子栏至虎跳峡坝址区间流域可能最大暴雨计算，采用了当地暴雨放大和组合暴雨放大两种方法。其中，当地暴雨放大方法采用了水汽效率放大和水汽风速放大推求可能最大暴雨。为分析组合暴雨放大的合理性，还采用了随机模拟方法推求设计暴雨过程，并与组合暴雨放大的结果进行了对比分析。由计算结果可看出，组合暴雨放大结果比随机模拟方法结果偏大较多，采用此方法对工程设计更安全。但对组合序列的合理性和可能性，欲从理论上得到充分的论证还比较困难。     

变化环境下可能最大洪水计算研究

气候变化与下垫面变化前提下,多因素共同影响明显增加了流域可能最大洪水(PMF)估算难度。为此,提出一种集气候模式结果后处理、气候变化情景下相应可能最大暴雨(PMP)估算及土地利用/覆被变化方案设定、基流/前期影响雨量影响分析、基于相似性的PMP时空展布于一体的PMF计算模式,将其应用于怒江上游。结果表明,基流/前期影响雨量及暴雨时空分布不确定性是影响流域PMF的重要因素,气候与下垫面变化双重驱动对于PMF影响较大,且变幅随着变化程度增强而增大。     

复杂地形对山西省区域性暴雨的数值模拟试验

为探究山西省复杂地形对暴雨的影响,利用中尺度天气模式WRF对2013年7月9～10日山西省特大暴雨天气过程进行模拟分析,基于山西省地形设计了3组地形敏感性试验,分析了地形对此次极端强降水的影响。结果表明,山西省复杂地形对暴雨特征(暴雨中心、暴雨强度)影响非常显著,当增高地形后,暴雨中心的垂直螺旋度大值区的区域明显变大,扰动位温大值区向东偏移,山西省南部水汽辐合增强,而当地形降低后,垂直螺旋度则明显缩小甚至消失,扰动位温也明显降低,中部水汽辐合增强。并结合动力条件、热力条件和水汽条件,阐述了山西省地形对暴雨发展过程的影响。     

台风过境全过程水平风速变化中海气交换作用机制与影响因子研究

为揭示海气交换作用对台风过境全过程水平风速的影响机理，基于MCT耦合平台二次开发，建立了大气WRF模式-海浪SWAN模式-海洋FVCOM模式的实时耦合模拟方法，同时和单一中尺度WRF模式预测结果比对，通过相关性分析确定了海气交换作用对台风水平风速影响的主要环境因素，进而揭示了海气交换作用机制，最终利用主成分分析法研究了台风不同阶段水平风速的海气交换作用综合环境因子影响系数。结果表明：海气交换作用对台风水平风速的影响中起主要作用的环境因子依次为：垂直切变、摩阻速度、海表温度、潜热通量与850 hPa垂直涡度；考虑海气交换作用时综合环境因子对水平风速的影响呈负反馈趋势，台风过境全过程下环境对风速的海气交换作用指标取值分别为：0.206（加速期）、-0.718（强风期）、-0.750（登陆期）。     

当地暴雨放大法在香港地区可能最大降水估算中的应用

为给香港地区防洪建设提供科学依据,基于112个气象站1984~2010年共27年的降水资料,采用当地暴雨放大法对可能最大降水进行计算,并将估算结果与频率分析结果、世界点暴雨记录进行比较,验证了该方法的可行性及本次估算结果的可靠性。结果表明,当地暴雨放大法得到的香港地区的可能最大降水是合理的,可为香港地区防汛抗灾提供参考。     

彭泽县可能最大降水量估算方法及评价

以江西省彭泽县为例,选取五个雨量站的1980~2010年共31年的年最大日降水量资料,采用概率论法、当地暴雨放大法和统计估算法对可能最大降水量进行了计算。结果表明,概率论法的计算结果最大,统计估算法的计算结果最小,结合彭泽县的具体情况可知,采用当地暴雨放大法的计算结果较为合理。     

基于改进的统计估算法与暴雨移置法的香港地区4h可能最大降水估算

基于香港地区74站、台湾地区66站和深圳站的雨量资料及4个典型台风暴雨发生期间逐时雨量资料,首先利用改进的统计估算法估算其4h可能最大降水,然后采用分时段地形增强因子法对4个台风暴雨进行分割,去除地形雨分量,最后将概化的辐合雨分量移置到香港地区,与其4h地形增强因子相结合,估算出香港地区4h可能最大降水。结果表明,改进的统计估算法和暴雨移置法估算得到香港地区4h可能最大降水分别为558.5、516.7mm,均高于香港地区4h暴雨纪录。经分析比较,估算结果均比较合理、可靠。     

短历时可能最大暴雨的一种计算方法

针对短历时暴雨资料较少,尤其针对高效特大短历时实测暴雨资料较少、推求短历时可能最大暴雨PMP较困难,目前尚无成熟的方法可以借鉴,推荐了先推求24 h可能最大暴雨PMP,然后再采用暴雨公式推求短历时PMP方法,并应用于实际工程中,计算结果较为适用合理。     

An onsite demonstration and validation of LiDAR technology for wind energy resource assessment

The investigation of wind resource at higher heights is very crucial in planning wind power project. Normally, this involves the installation of a high and costly meteorological mast with a cup anemometer and wind vanes. This investigation uses the new ground-based remote-sensing technique Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to investigate the wind resource at higher heights. This paper describes the LiDAR technology principle and examines the potential of LiDAR measurement to estimate the wind resource at higher heights by conducting a measurement campaign at Tamil Nadu, India. The wind statistics were determined using the 10?min average time-series wind data monitored by ZephIR LiDAR. These include the Weibull parameters, daily mean wind speed, wind power density, wind energy density, vertical wind speed profile and capacity factor. The investigation reveals that the vertical wind speed profile measured from the LiDAR system has approximate closer values to the standard meteorological measurement.     

垂直对称四叶片风力机气动特性仿真研究

采用CFD计算软件对垂直轴风力机气动性能进行计算.首先,使用ICEM软件对模型进行前处理,通过Fluent软件进行数值模拟,分析不同计算时间步长和湍流模型对风力机气动特性仿真结果的影响,确定符合该研究模型的计算方法.随后,对顺流垂旋型垂直轴风力机在不同叶尖速比下进行计算,发现该风力机在叶尖速比为0.42时获得最大功率系...     

The impact of atmospheric stability on the near‐surface wind over sea in storm conditions

We study the influence of boundary layer stability on the near‐surface wind speed, especially for high‐wind conditions. An analysis of the wind speed ratio between two vertical levels observed at tall masts in the North Sea and The Netherlands demonstrates that over sea non‐neutral conditions commonly occur, even when the 10 m wind speed is 7 Bft or higher (at least 13.9 ms^?1). Over land, stability conditions are always close to neutral for these strong wind conditions. This is because over land, large vertical temperature differences are rare in these conditions. An analysis of 30 years of station data shows that even in storm conditions the ratio of the 10 m wind speed between sea and land depends systematically on the difference between the air temperature and the sea surface temperature. The observational results are reproduced by HARMONIE, a state‐of‐the‐art Numerical Weather Prediction model, although the impact of stability is smaller than in the observations. A model sensitivity analysis for a severe storm shows that the near‐surface wind speed over sea can vary by 10% depending on the difference between the air temperature and the sea surface temperature. The results presented in this study indicate that even in conditions that are usually classified as ‘(near) neutral’, small variations in stability may have a significant impact on the wind profile. They also indicate that for high wind speeds, the sea‐to‐land wind speed ratio is dominated by the stability over sea as in these conditions the stability over land is close to neutral. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fuzzy modeling techniques and artificial neural networks to estimate annual energy output of a wind turbine

The purpose of this article is to develop a new method to estimate annual energy output for a given wind turbine in any region which should be easy to use and has satisfactory accuracy. To do this, hourly wind speeds of 25 different stations in Netherlands, output power curve of S47 wind turbine and fuzzy modeling techniques and artificial neural networks were used and a model is developed to estimate annual energy output for S47 wind turbine in different regions. Since this model has three inputs (average wind speed, standard deviation of wind speed, and air density of that region), this model is easy to use. The accuracy of this method is compared with the accuracy of conventional methods and it is shown that this new method performs better. Thereafter, we have shown that by making some small changes to this proposed model, other pitch control wind turbines could be modeled too. As an example, we have modeled E82 wind turbine based on the model developed for S47 and it is shown that this model has still satisfactory accuracy.     

Plasma‐based feed‐forward dynamic stall control on a vertical axis wind turbine

Dynamic stall was controlled on a double‐bladed H‐Rotor vertical axis wind turbine model using pulsed dielectric barrier discharge plasma actuators in a feed‐forward control configuration. The azimuthal angles of plasma actuation initiation and termination, that produced the largest increases in power, were determined parametrically on the upstream half of the turbine azimuth in a low‐speed blow‐down wind tunnel at wind speeds of 7 m/s. A mathematical model, together with instantaneous turbine speed, was used to estimate transient torque and power developed by the turbine under the influence of plasma actuation. Overall performance improvements were based on changes between the final actuated and initial baseline results. A remarkable result of this investigation was that a net turbine power increase of 10% was measured. This was achieved by systematically reducing plasma pulsation duty cycles as well as the plasma initiation and termination angles. Nevertheless, it was determined that further performance increases could be achieved by changing the actuator's dielectric material, increasing the turbine radius and developing a method for control of dynamic stall on both the upwind (inboard of the blades) and downwind (outboard of the blades) halves of the turbine azimuth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于PWMM的三参数Weibull分布参数外推方法的研究

为提高低风速区分散式风电项目的风资源评估精度,降低测风成本,在对三参数Weibull分布参数估计和外推的研究基础上,提出基于概率加权矩法(PWMM)的三参数Weibull分布参数垂直外推方法。利用较低高度处风速统计的概率加权矩,经垂直外推得到平坦地形、较高高度处风速Weibull分布的参数,进而得到Weibull分布函数和风功率密度。算例分析表明:基于PWMM的三参数Weibull分布参数垂直外推法在平坦地形不同测风点处有一定的适用性外推较高高度处风速Weibull分布的参数,可有效体现平坦地形低风速区的风速分布特征,提高风功率密度评测精度。     

Wind turbulence used as searching signal for MPPT in variable-speed wind energy conversion systems

The control problem associated to a class of horizontal-axis fixed-pitch variable-speed low-power wind energy conversion systems, working in the partial load region, consisting in the energy conversion maximization, is approached here under the assumption that the wind turbine model and its parameters are poorly known. Using a new approach derived from the optimum seeking methods category, generically called Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), the proposed control solution aims at driving the average position of the operating point near to optimality. Instead of inducing sinusoidal search signals, the wind turbulence is here used as search disturbance. The high-speed shaft's average rotational speed is slowly adjusted using the Fast Fourier Transform processing of some available measures from the system as an estimate of the operating point's position/distance to optimality. Numerical simulations are used for preliminary checking the control law based on this estimation.