成品油价与国际油价接轨的三阶段

<正>1998年以来,国内原油、成品油价格管理体制改革大致经历了3个阶段:一是1998年原油、成品油价格初步与国际市场的接轨阶段,1998年6月3日,原国家计委出台了《原油成品油价格改革方案》,规定国内原油、成品油价格按照新加坡市场油价相应确定,原油价格自1998年6月1日起执行,成品油价格自1998年6月5日起执行;二是2000年6月份开始的国内成     

国际油价的演变及其定价机制

原油是当今世界最为重要的基础能源,与国民经济的发展、人民生活水平的提高有着密切的关系,原油价格的变化对国际、国内的政治、经济形势起着举足轻重的作用。因此,世界各国政府都十分重视控制原油资源、调控原油价格以保证国内原油市场的稳定。一、国际油价的演变过程自从1880年有原油市场价格记录至今120年来,国际油价的演变过程大体分以下几个阶段:1.1960年OPEC成立以前。随着世界石油工业的逐步发展,在第二次世界大战后形成了国际石油市场,原油价格受美国和跨国公司的垄断控制,它们以垄断买主的地位在油田当场收购产油公司生产的石油,…     

国际油价潮落潮起

2月份,国际原油价格坚挺上扬,月底WTI价格再度接近52美元／桶,为近4个月以来的最高水平。天气因素、以及有关欧佩克可能在下次部长级会议上减产的言论促使原油价格保持坚挺。另外,市场开始进一步担心原油需求的增长将快于供应。2月WTI、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格分别平均为47.94、45.37和39.68美元／桶,较1月份上升1.11、1.14和1.76美元／桶。多方支撑原油价格2月上旬,油价一度回落。主要是因为1月底的欧佩克维也纳会议决定维持现行原     

国际油价宽幅震荡

5月份国际原油价格继续宽幅震荡。5月WTI、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格,平均为49.90、48.61和45.42美元/桶,分别较4月份下降2.99、3.21和1.78美元/桶。原油价格停停走走5月份原油价格的走势总体为:月初价格小幅上扬,中旬价格明显回落,下旬价格止跌回升。价格波动主要受到以下因素的影响:5月份美国原油库存明显增加。截至5月20日当周,美国原油库存下降160万桶,至3.324亿桶。尽管当周库存下降,但这仅仅是过去15周来原油库存第二次下降。原     

基础化工又迎好年景

2012年,基础有机化工原料产品市场在原油价格走势主导下,在市场供需阶段性不平衡影响下做窄幅震荡。2012年,WTI原油年初价格99美元／桶,年末价格为92美元／桶。年均价为94美元／桶,环比下跌0．96％。     

原油价格连续波动

2003年11月份国际原油价格先升后降,价格波动较大。中东地区伊拉克和以巴局势不稳,沙特和土耳其屡遭恐怖袭击是造成国际市场原油价格走高的主要原因。目前原油市场供需基本平衡。虽然欧美原油库存得到一定量的补充,但是总体原油和油品库存水平仍处于较低水平,也是油价居高不下的潜在原因。2003年11月美国西得克萨斯中油(WTI)、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格分别平均为31.03美元/桶、28.73美元/桶和27.66美元/桶,除布伦特原油价格较10月份下降92美分/桶外,WTI和迪拜原油分别较10月份上升76美分/桶和39美分/桶。     

突发事件左右原油市场

进入10月,欧佩克决定减产以及对冬季取暖油库存紧张的担忧使原油市场基本面看多,支撑原油价格10月份一度保持坚挺。但是随后,美国原油库存的屡屡上升,使市场对冬季库存紧张的担忧减缓,油价有所回落。10月美国西得克萨斯中油(WTI)、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格分别平均为30.27美元/桶、29.65美元/桶和27.27美元/桶,较9月份价格水平分别上升2.02美元/桶、2.57美元/桶和1.90美元/桶。     

PX亏损将成常态?

随着新冠病毒疫情的暴发,原油价格大幅度走低。高盛预计,中国的原油需求减少200万~300万桶/日,降幅恐与2008-2009年持平。国际原油价格大幅走低,对国内化工产品将产生利空影响。回望2019年,即使没有疫情的影响,国内PX市场价格仍然走低。     

原油价格全线上扬

进入2005年,原油价格明显攀升,1月底WTI价格再度接近50美元/桶。非欧佩克产油国的供应问题、欧美地区遭遇寒冷天气,预期欧佩克减产以及伊拉克大选前的紧张气氖促使原油价格受到明显支撑。1月WTI、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格,分别平均为46.83、44.23和37.92美元/桶,较2004年12月份明显回升3.63、4.70和3.72美元/桶。     

国际油价高位震荡

9月份,国际原油价格继续高位震荡。尽管在飓风“卡特里娜”过后,美国墨西哥湾地区炼厂和原油开采设施的产能逐渐恢复,加之国际能源机构(IEA)宣布释放原油储备,进一步缓解了世界性的石油危机。但是飓风“丽塔”影响美国墨西哥湾,促使原油市场再次吃紧。9月西得克萨斯轻油(WTI)、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格平均为65.52、62.91和56. 54美元/桶。其中,布伦特和迪拜原油价格分别较8月份下降1.21美元/桶和6美分/桶,WTI则较8月份上升56美分/桶。     

2005年原油及华北地区液化石油气市场回顾

简要介绍了国内液化石油气（LPG）市场情况及2005年国际原油价格走势特点．阐述了国际原油价格与国内LPG市场的相互关系。对2005年华北地区LPG市场价格上扬的原因进行了分析．认为由于国际原油价格突飞猛进，进口气数量减少，造成LPG资源缺口，导致LPG市场价格上扬。预测了2006年国际原油价格和华北地区LPG市场价格的走势并指出建立和完善能源储备制度才是制止LPG价格频繁上涨的有效并且长远的办法。     

不同原油价格下重油加工工艺路线的选择

在35～100 美元/bbl(1 bbl≈159 L)的国际油价下,针对阿曼原油、沙中原油、伊重原油、塔河原油的不同重油加工工艺路线(如浆态床渣油加氢、沸腾床渣油加氢、固定床渣油加氢、渣油焦化、溶剂脱沥青组合等)进行了经济效益分析,结果表明：在所研究的价格体系内,浆态床渣油加氢技术的经济效益均明显优于沸腾床渣油加氢技术;对于较劣质原油（如伊重原油）,在原油价格高于80 美元/bbl时,采用浆态床渣油加氢技术的经济效益超过常规原油固定床渣油加氢技术,随着浆态床渣油加氢技术的逐步完善与加工成本的降低,该技术在应对特别劣质的原料时具有很好的市场应用前景;在原油价格高于35 美元/bbl时溶剂脱沥青组合技术的经济效益优于渣油焦化技术,对于缺少氢源、延迟焦化装置原料性质较好的企业,当原油价格低于55 美元/bbl时,溶剂脱沥青组合技术有较好的市场应用前景;针对常规原油,当原油价格为45～80 美元/bbl时,推荐采用固定床渣油加氢技术。     

高油价下原油资源及生产方案优化的探讨

分析了国际市场原油价格走势特点,通过利用PIMS软件优化测算,提出了炼油企业在高油价下原油资源及生产方案优化的有关建议。指出原油重质化、挖掘重油深加工潜力、优化原料采购和制定科学的技术经济考核指标是降低采购成本、提高效益的有效措施。     

Review of China＇s Petroleum Imports ＆ Exports in 2005

After having increased greatly for three consecutive years, the net import of crude oil dropped by 5.2% in 2005 in China. The price inversion between the prices of major product oil in Chinese market with the international market leads to a great decrease of imported fuel and diesel oil and an increase of gasoline and diesel exportation. Except crude oil, the net import volumes of oil products including product oil, LPG and other oil products dropped obviously last year.     

The interactions between Chinese local corn and WTI crude oil prices: an empirical analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between China’s fuel ethanol promotion plan and food security based on the interactions between the crude oil market, the fuel ethanol market and the grain market. Based on the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price and Chinese corn prices from January 2008 to May 2018, this paper applies Granger causality testing and a generalized impulse response function to explore the relationship between world crude oil prices and Chinese corn prices. The results show that crude oil prices are not the Granger cause of China’s corn prices, but changes in world crude oil prices will have a long-term positive impact on Chinese corn prices. Therefore, the Chinese government should pay attention to changes in crude oil prices when promoting fuel ethanol. Considering the conduction effect between fuel ethanol and the food market, the government should also take some measures to ensure food security.     

Oil Import and Export in China

Domestic economic growth slowed down and supply exceeded demand in oil market in 2015, so the growth of refineries' processing volume was limited. Nevertheless, the gradual decontrol of market and the storage requirement under low oil price, crude oil imports hit a record high of 335.5 million tons, with the growth rate approximating 9%. Refined oil exports soared and imports decreased, which made China become a net refined oil exporter for the first time for 24 years, and net imports reached 6.22 million tons. Robust requirement on chemical raw materials propelled imported liquefied petroleum gas market to go on expanding. Imports exceeded 12 million tons in 2015, thus China leaped into the world's largest liquefied petroleum gas importer. In 2016, oil consumption growth would be kept at lower level. However, China would further decontrol crude oil import and refined oil export permits and put incremental storage capacity into use. Therefore, crude oil imports would continue to rise up, and refined oil exports may hit a new historic high. Imported liquefied petroleum gas market will enter into a stage of stable growth after two years' rapid development.     

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China’s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China’s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China’s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a significant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheritance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.     

纯苯市场分析

近年来,国内纯苯市场受国际原油价格、进口和国内供需矛盾等综合因素的影响,价格波动频繁,供需平衡脆弱。通过对国内纯苯市场的供需分析,以及下游行业分析和价格走势分析,指出了国内纯苯上游生产的构成及下游行业的特点,阐述了国内纯苯产品的市场运行规律,并对未来国内纯苯产品的市场供需和价格走势做了相关的分析与预测,提出了针对性建议。     

国际原油价格涨落因素分析

强劲的需求、剩余产能的减少、炼油能力的不足及游资的炒作使国际油价目前仍处于高位。作者综合分析了促成国际原油价格上涨和下跌的各种因素,认为今年四季度到明年上半年国际原油价格仍将处于阶段性高位,徘徊在每桶60~70美元之间,大幅度高于或低于该价格区间的可能性都很小;但中期来看,国际原油价格将在未来几年回落到石油供需双方均可接受的一般均衡价格,大约在每桶40美元。     

Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.