Restrained front seat car occupant fatalities--the nature and circumstances of their injuries.

The circumstances of a rural and urban sample of fatalities in vehicles less than six years old is described. The data originate from an in-depth, multidisciplinary study of accidents conducted in England since 1983. The sample is biased towards collisions that result in occupant injury, and this paper will concentrate on those accidents in which an occupant has been fatally injured. The initial police reporting of the fatalities included 11% of the deaths occurring from natural causes. Of the crash-related deaths with complete data, some 43% were frontal and lateral impacts, and they are analysed in greater detail. Thirty-six percent of restrained occupants died in lateral collisions. In both frontal and lateral crashes, large amounts of intrusion result in direct loading of the head and chest, particularly. Under-run crashes with large trucks constitute 30% of frontal death cases, and only 12% of fatalities received fatal injuries from belt loads. Of those cases, additional loading by unrestrained rear passengers could have been an important feature. Multiplicity of severe injuries is the rule for restrained fatalities, with head injuries as the most common cause of death. Eighty-two percent died within an hour of their crashes. Some consequences for vehicle compatibility in crashes are discussed.     

Impact of safety belt use on road accident injury and injury type in Kuwait

The enactment of Kuwait's seat belt law in January 1994 provided an opportunity to examine the impact of seat belt use on road accident fatalities and injury types in this affluent Persian Gulf nation. Via a structured data form, the results of injurious/fatal road accidents for more than 1200 accident victims were gathered from the files of the six major government hospitals which treat most traffic accident victims. Statistical analysis of the data showed that seat belt use has had a positive effect in reducing both road traffic fatalities and multiple injuries in Kuwait. The use of seat belts has also affected the nature of the injuries resulting from road traffic accidents. Non-users of belts experienced higher frequencies of head, face, abdominal and limb injuries. Users of belts, on the other hand, suffered higher frequencies of neck and chest injuries. The interrelationship between the victim, his age, and the type of injuries resulting from road traffic accidents is also investigated.     

The influence of vehicle damage on injury severity of drivers in head-on motor vehicle crashes

Data from crashes investigated through the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Program were used to assess differences in injury patterns, severity, and sources for drivers, protected by safety belts and deploying steering wheel air bags, in head-on frontal impacts. We studied whether exterior vehicle damage with a different distribution (wide vs. narrow) across the front vehicle plane influenced injury characteristics. Drivers from both impact types were similar on the basis of demographic characteristics (except age), restraint use, and vehicle characteristics. There were significant differences in the type of object contacted and intrusion into the passenger compartment at the driver's seat location. The mean delta V (based on the kilometers per hour change in velocity during the impact) was similar for drivers in both (wide vs. narrow) impact types. There were no significant differences in injury patterns and sources except that drivers in wide impacts were almost 4 times more likely (odds ratio (OR)=3.81, 95% confidence limits (CL) 1.26, 11.5) to have an abbreviated injury scale (AIS) 3 serious or greater severity head injury. Adjusted odds ratios showed that drivers in wide impacts were less likely (OR=0.54, 95% CI 0.37, 0.79) to have severe injury (based on injury severity score (ISS)>25) when controlling for intrusion, vehicle body type, vehicle curb weight, age, proper safety belt use, and delta V. Drivers with intrusion into their position or who were driving a passenger vehicle were almost twice more likely to have severe injury, regardless of whether the frontal plane damage distribution was wide or narrow. Our study supports that the type of damage distribution across the frontal plane may be an important crash characteristic to consider when studying drivers injured in head-on motor vehicle crashes.     

Injury patterns in frontal crashes: The association between knee-thigh-hip (KTH) and serious intra-abdominal injury

Safety belts protect occupants in frontal impacts by reducing occupant deceleration and preventing the occupant from hitting interior vehicle components likely to cause injury. However, occupants moving forward during the impact may contact the safety belt webbing across their chest and abdomen. We hypothesized that if the occupant loaded their knee-thigh-hip (KTH) region with enough force to result in injury to this region—it might prevent compression (and injury) of their abdomen by the safety belt. Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) data were used to test the association between KTH and intra-abdominal injury related to safety belts. Odds ratios with 95% confidence limits (CL) and logistic regression models were used to assess statistical significance. Analyses were based on 706 CIREN adult, front seat occupants using their safety belt and injured in frontal crashes. Occupants with KTH injury were four times less likely (adjusted odds ratio = 0.25, 95% CL 0.10, 0.62) to have concomitant serious intra-abdominal injury caused by the safety belt. Although safety belts save lives and prevent serious injury, some occupants may sustain serious intra-abdominal injury when the abdomen is loaded by the safety belt during a frontal impact. These results may be useful to motor vehicle manufacturers and others who design and test motor vehicle safety systems.     

Predicting seat belt use in fatal motor vehicle crashes from observation surveys of belt use

There is a large difference between the rates of observed seat belt use by the general public and belt use by motor vehicle occupants who are fatally injured in crashes. Seat belt use rates of fatally injured occupants, as reported in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), are much lower than the use rates found in observation surveys conducted by the states. A series of mathematical models describing the empirical relationship between FARS and observed rates were explored. The initial model was a 'straw man' and used two simplifying assumptions: (a) belt users and nonusers are equally likely to be involved in 'potentially fatal collisions', and (b) belts are 45% effective in preventing deaths. The model was examined by comparing each state's FARS use rate with the predicted rate. The model did not fit the state data points even when possible biases in the data were controlled. We next examined the assumptions in the model. Changing the seat belt effectiveness parameter provided a reasonable fit, but required an assumption that seat belts are 67% effective in preventing fatalities. The inclusion of a risk coefficient for non-belted occupants also provided a reasonable fit between the model and data. A variable risk model produced the best fit with the data. The major finding was that a model consistent with the data can be obtained by incorporating the assumption that nonusers of seat belts have a higher risk of involvement in potentially fatal collisions than do seat belt users. It was concluded that unbelted occupants are over-represented in fatal collisions for two reasons: (a) because of a greater chance of involvement in potentially fatal collisions in the first place, and (b) because they are not afforded the protection of seat belts when a collision does occur.     

The influence of damage distribution on serious brain injury in occupants in frontal motor vehicle crashes

In spite of improvements in motor vehicle safety systems and crashworthiness, motor vehicle crashes remain one of the leading causes of brain injury. The purpose of this study was to determine if the damage distribution across the frontal plane affected brain injury severity of occupants in frontal impacts. Occupants in "head on" frontal impacts with a Principal Direction of Force (PDOF) equal to 11, 12, or 1o'clock who sustained serious brain injury were identified using the Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN) database. Impacts were further classified based on the damage distribution across the frontal plane as distributed, offset, and extreme offset (corner). Overall, there was no significant difference for brain injury severity (based on Glasgow Coma Scale<9, or brain injury AIS>2) comparing occupants in the different impact categories. For occupants in distributed frontal impacts, safety belt use was protective (odds ratio (OR)=0.61) and intrusion at the occupant's seat position was four times more likely to result in severe (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS)<9) brain injury (OR=4.35). For occupants in offset frontal impacts, again safety belt use was protective against severe brain injury (OR=0.25). Possibly due to the small number of brain-injured occupants in corner impacts, safety belts did not significantly protect against increased brain injury severity during corner impacts. This study supports the importance of safety belt use to decrease brain injury severity for occupants in distributed and offset frontal crashes. It also illustrates how studying "real world" crashes may provide useful information on occupant injuries under impact circumstances not currently covered by crash testing.     

Impacts to the chest of PMHSs – Influence of impact location and load distribution on chest response

The chest response of the human body has been studied for several load conditions, but is not well known in the case of steering wheel rim-to-chest impact in heavy goods vehicle frontal collisions. The aim of this study was to determine the response of the human chest in a set of simulated steering wheel impacts. PMHS tests were carried out and analysed. The steering wheel load pattern was represented by a rigid pendulum with a straight bar-shaped front. A crash test dummy chest calibration pendulum was utilised for comparison. In this study, a set of rigid bar impacts were directed at various heights of the chest, spanning approximately 120 mm around the fourth intercostal space. The impact energy was set below a level estimated to cause rib fracture. The analysed results consist of responses, evaluated with respect to differences in the impacting shape and impact heights on compression and viscous criteria chest injury responses. The results showed that the bar impacts consistently produced lesser scaled chest compressions than the hub; the Middle bar responses were around 90% of the hub responses. A superior bar impact provided lesser chest compression; the average response was 86% of the Middle bar response. For inferior bar impacts, the chest compression response was 116% of the chest compression in the middle. The damping properties of the chest caused the compression to decrease in the high speed bar impacts to 88% of that in low speed impacts. From the analysis it could be concluded that the bar impact shape provides lower chest criteria responses compared to the hub. Further, the bar responses are dependent on the impact location of the chest. Inertial and viscous effects of the upper body affect the responses. The results can be used to assess the responses of human substitutes such as anthropomorphic test devices and finite element human body models, which will benefit the development process of heavy goods vehicle safety systems.     

An aggregate accident model based on pooled, regional time-series data.

The determinants of personal injury road accidents and their severity are studied by means of generalized Poisson regression models estimated on the basis of combined cross-section/time-series data. Monthly data have been assembled for 18 Norwegian counties (every county but one), covering the period from January 1974 until December 1986. A rather wide range of potential explanatory factors are taken into account, including road use (exposure), weather, daylight, traffic density, road investment and maintenance expenditure, accident reporting routines, vehicle inspection, law enforcement, seat belt usage, proportion of inexperienced drivers, and alcohol sales. Separate probability models are estimated for the number of personal injury accidents, fatal accidents, injury victims, death victims, car occupants injured, and bicyclists and pedestrians injured. The fraction of personal injury accidents that are fatal is interpreted as an average severity measure and studied by means of a binomial logit model.     

The effectiveness of air bags

Previous research has shown that the installation of air bags in vehicles significantly reduces crash related deaths, but these analyses have used statistical techniques which have not been capable of controlling for other major determinants of crash survival. This study analysed data from the US FARS database of fatal crashes using conditional logistic regression which is simultaneously able to estimate occupant protection effects for a range of variables. Results of the analysis provided a comparative quantification of both the effect of the air bag as well as other well known determinants of occupant crash survival (age, seat belt use, and gender). When potentially confounding variables were controlled, both the driver and passenger side air bag devices were shown to significantly reduce the probability of death in direct frontal collisions, but the effect size calculated was small compared to the effect of the seat belt. The effect size may also be very small in absolute terms depending on the severity of the crash involved. Given the limited benefit of the air bag, efforts to promote air bags seem particularly difficult to justify in countries such as the United States where the vastly superior occupant protection of the seat belt is under-utilised.     

Identification of vehicle components associated with severe thoracic injury in motor vehicle crashes: a CIREN and NASS analysis

INTRODUCTION: Thoracic trauma secondary to motor vehicle crashes (MVC) continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Specific vehicle features may increase the risk of severe thoracic injury when striking the occupant. We sought to determine which vehicle contact points were associated with an increased risk of severe thoracic injury in MVC to focus subsequent design modifications necessary to reduce thoracic injury. METHODS: The National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) databases from 1993 to 2001 and the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) databases from 1996 to 2004 were analyzed separately using univariate and multivariate logistic regression stratified by restraint use and crash direction. The risk of driver thoracic injury, defined as an abbreviated injury scale (AIS) of score > or =3, was determined as it related to specific points of contact between the vehicle and the driver. RESULTS: The incidence of severe chest injury in NASS and CIREN were 5.5% and 33%, respectively. The steering wheel, door panel, armrest, and seat were identified as contact points associated with an increased risk of severe chest injury. The door panel and arm rest were consistently a frequent cause of severe injury in both the NASS and CIREN data. CONCLUSIONS: Several vehicle contact points, including the steering wheel, door panel, armrest and seat are associated with an increased risk of severe thoracic injury when striking the occupant. These elements need to be further investigated to determine which characteristics need to be manipulated in order to reduce thoracic trauma during a crash.     

Pregnant women in vehicles: Driving habits,position and risk of injury

This study proposed to broadly examine vehicle use by pregnant women in order to improve realism of accident simulations involving these particular occupants. Three research pathways were developed: the first consisted in a questionnaire survey examining the driving habits of 135 pregnant women, the second obtained measurements of 15 pregnant women driving position in their own vehicle from the 6th to the 9th month of pregnancy by measuring distances between body parts and vehicle parts, and the third examined car accidents involving pregnant occupants. Results obtained indicate that between 90% and 100% of pregnant women wore their seat belts whatever their stage of pregnancy, although nearly one third of subjects considered the seat belt was dangerous for their unborn child. The measurements obtained also showed that the position of the pregnant woman in her vehicle, in relation to the various elements of the passenger compartment, changed significantly during pregnancy. In the studied accidents, no correlation was found between the conditions of the accident and the resulting fetal injury. Results reveal that pregnant women do not modify significantly the seat setting as a function of pregnancy stage. Only the distance between maternal abdomen and steering wheel change significantly, from 16 cm to 12 cm at 6 and 9 month respectively. Pregnant women are mainly drivers before 8 months of pregnancy, passengers after that. Car use frequency falls down rapidly from 6 to 9 months of pregnancy. Real crashes investigations indicate a low rate of casualties, i.e. 342 car accidents involving pregnant women for a period of 9 years in an approximately 1.7 million inhabitants area. No specific injury was found as a function of stage of pregnancy.     

Mathematical models assuming selective recruitment fitted to data for driver mortality and seat belt use in Japan

Previous research has indicated that unbelted drivers are at higher risk of involvement in fatal crashes than belted drivers, suggesting selective recruitment that high-risk drivers are unlikely to become belt users. However, how the risk of involvement in fatal crashes among unbelted drivers varies according to the level of seat belt use among general drivers has yet to be clearly quantified. We, therefore, developed mathematical models describing the risk of fatal crashes in relation to seat belt use among the general public, and explored how these models fitted to changes in driver mortality and changes in observed seat belt use using Japanese data. Mortality data between 1979 and 1994 were obtained from vital statistics, and mortality data in the daytime and nighttime between 1980 and 2001 and belt use data between 1979 and 2001 were obtained from the National Police Agency. Regardless of the data set analyzed, exponential models, assuming that high-risk drivers would gradually become belt users in order of increasing risk as seat belt use among general motorists reached high levels, showed the best fit. Our models provide an insight into behavioral changes among high-risk drivers and support the selective recruitment hypothesis.     

The effect of seat belts on minor and severe injuries measured on the abbreviated injury scale

Following the implementation of seat belt wearing legislation in Victoria in December 1970, the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons established a survey to collect detailed injury and crash data from car accidents in that State. An analysis of the effect of seat belt wearing on severe injuries sustained by car occupants during the first two years of the survey was reported by Cameron and Nelson[1977]. Minor injuries were ignored in that analysis. Further work extended the file to cover 8537 occupants injured during the first three years of the survey and the injuries (including minor injuries) were coded on the Abbreviated Injury Scale. This paper examines the effect of seat belt wearing on both minor and severe injuries. Some comparisons of injury severity distributions in the Victorian data and in data collected by North American MDAI teams are also made. The paper concludes that the wearing of static three-point lap/sash belts by front outboard seat occupants of cars and car derivatives is associated with: (a) Reduced likelihood of severe-to-fatal injury to the head-face, thorax, lower torso and lower extremities when injured and not ejected in crashes in built-up areas and, for some body regions, in open road crashes, (b) Increased likelihood of minor injury to the thorax and lower torso when injured and not ejected in crashes in all locations and of minor injury to the neck (i.e. whiplash) when injured and not ejected in crashes in built-up areas. There are suggestions that the increased likelihoods of the minor injuries are not artefacts of the injury criterion for inclusion, nor of the reduced likelihood of severe injury to the trunk when seat belts are worn, but are due to the wearing of the seat belt.     

Increased risk of driver fatality due to unrestrained rear-seat passengers in severe frontal crashes

While belt usage among rear-seat passengers is disproportionately lower than their front-seat counterpart, this may have serious consequences in the event of a crash not only for the unbelted rear-seat passenger but also for the front-seat passengers as well. To quantify that effect, the objective of the study is to evaluate the increased likelihood of driver fatality in the presence of unrestrained rear-seat passengers in a severe frontal collision. U.S.-based census data from 2001 to 2009 fatal motor vehicle crashes was used to enroll frontal crashes which involved 1998 or later year vehicle models with belted drivers and at least one adult passenger in the rear left seat behind the driver. Results using multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds of a belt restrained driver sustaining a fatal injury was 137% (95% CI = 95%, 189%) higher when the passenger behind the driver was unbelted in comparison to a belted case while the effects of driver age, sex, speed limit, vehicle body type, airbag deployment and driver ejection were controlled in the model. The likelihood of driver fatality due to an unrestrained rear left passenger increased further (119–197%) in the presence of additional unrestrained rear seat passengers in the rear middle or right seats. The results from the study highlight the fact that future advances to front row passive safety systems (e.g. multi-stage airbag deployment) must be adapted to take into account the effect of unrestrained rear-seat passengers.     

A model of traffic crashes in New Zealand

The aim of this study was to examine the changes in the trend and seasonal patterns in fatal crashes in New Zealand in relation to changes in economic conditions between 1970 and 1994. The Harvey and Durbin (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 149 (3) (1986) 187-227) structural time series model (STSM), an 'unobserved components' class of model, was used to estimate models for quarterly fatal traffic crashes. The dependent variable was modelled as the number of crashes and three variants of the crash rate (crashes per 10,000 km travelled, crashes per 1,000 vehicles, and crashes per 1000 population). Independent variables included in the models were unemployment rate (UER), real gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of motorcycles, the proportion of young males in the population, alcohol consumption per capita, the open road speed limit, and dummy variables for the 1973 and 1979 oil crises and seat belt wearing laws. UERs, real GDP per capita, and alcohol consumption were all significant and important factors in explaining the short-run dynamics of the models. In the long-run, real GDP per capita was directly related to the number of crashes but after controlling for distance travelled was not significant. This suggests increases in income are associated with a short-run reduction in risk but increases in exposure to a crash (i.e. distance travelled) in the long-run. A 1% increase in the open road speed limit was associated with a long-run 0.5% increase in fatal crashes. Substantial reductions in fatal crashes were associated with the 1979 oil crisis and seat belt wearing laws. The 1984 universal seat belt wearing law was associated with a sustained 15.6% reduction in fatal crashes. These road policy factors appeared to have a greater influence on crashes than the role of demographic and economic factors.     

Risk factors for pelvic fractures in lateral impact motor vehicle crashes

Lateral impact motor vehicle crashes account for over 10% of all crashes and are more likely to result in pelvic fractures than frontal crashes. We performed a case control study of lateral impact motor vehicle crashes using the 1995-2004 National Accident Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System to determine occupant and vehicle risk factors for pelvic fractures. Cases (N=728) were occupants involved in a near-side lateral impact crash who experienced a pelvic fracture and controls were occupants (N=5710) who did not experience a pelvic fracture. Occupant risk factors evaluated were age, body mass index (BMI), gender including pregnancy status, and seat belt use. Vehicle risk factors evaluated were vehicle body type, weight of striking and struck vehicles, and magnitude of intrusion of side or door panel. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found that age 65 years or older, female gender, underweight body mass index, and increasing magnitude of intrusion of the door or side panel of the vehicle were associated with an increased risk of a pelvic fracture. Injury prevention strategies should focus on decreasing the magnitude of side or door panel intrusion to decrease the risk of pelvic fracture in the event of a lateral impact crash.     

Comparison of pregnant and non-pregnant occupant crash and injury characteristics based on national crash data

The objective of this study was to provide specific characteristics of injuries and crash characteristics for pregnant occupants from the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) database for pregnant women as a group, broken down by trimester, and compared to non-pregnant women. Using all NASS/CDS cases collected between the years 2000 and 2012 with at least one pregnant occupant, the entire pregnant data set included 321,820 vehicles, 324,535 occupants, and 640,804 injuries. The pregnant occupant data were compared to the characteristics of NASS/CDS cases for 14,719,533 non-pregnant females 13–44 years old in vehicle crashes from 2000 to 2012. Sixty five percent of pregnant women were located in the front left seat position and roughly the same percentage of pregnant women was wearing a lap and shoulder belt. The average change in velocity was 11.6 mph for pregnant women and over 50% of crashes for pregnant women were frontal collisions. From these collisions, less than seven percent of pregnant women sustained MAIS 2+ injuries. Minor differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant occupants were identified in the body region and source of injuries sustained. However, the data indicated no large differences in injury or crash characteristics based on trimester of pregnancy. Moreover, the risk of an MAIS 2+ level injury for pregnant occupants is similar to the risk of injury for non-pregnant occupants based on the total vehicle change in velocity. Overall this study provides useful data for researchers to focus future efforts in pregnant occupant research. Additionally, this study reinforces that more detailed and complete data on pregnant crashes needs to be collected to understand the risk for pregnant occupants.     

Method to evaluate the effect of safety belt use by rear seat passengers on the injury severity of front seat occupants

Although the effectiveness of seat belts for reducing injury to rear seat passengers in traffic accidents has been well documented, the ratio of rear-seat passengers restrained by seatbelts remains lower than that of drivers or passengers in front seats. If passengers in rear seats do not wear seat belts, they may sustain unexpected injury to themselves when involved in accidents, and also endanger front occupants (drivers or front seat passengers). This paper focuses on the tendency of front seat occupants to sustain severer injuries due to forward movement of passengers in rear seats at the moment of frontal collisions, and evaluates the effectiveness of rear passengers' wearing seat belts in reducing injuries of front seat occupants. Since the occurrence of occupant injuries depends considerably on the crash severity, we proposed to use pseudo-delta V in regression analysis to represent velocity change during a collision when analyzing statistical accident data. As the crash severity can be estimated from pseudo-delta V, it becomes possible to make appropriate estimations even when the crash severity differs in data. The binary model derived from the ordered response model was used to evaluate the influence on the injury level based on pseudo-delta V, belted or unbelted status, gender and age. Occupants in cars with a hood in the case of car-to-car frontal collisions were extracted from the statistical data on accidents in Japan. Among 81,817 cars, where at least one passenger was present, a total of 6847 cars in which all passengers sustained injuries and which had at least one rear seat passenger aboard were analyzed. The number of killed or seriously injured drivers is estimated to decrease by around 25% if rear seat occupants come to wear seat belts. Also, the number of killed or seriously injured passengers in front seats is estimated to decrease by 28% if unbelted rear seat occupants come to wear seat belts. Thus, wearing of seat belts by previously unbelted rear seat passengers is considered effective in reducing not only injuries to the rear seat passengers themselves but also injuries to front seat occupants.     

Comparison of reporting of seat belt use by police and crash investigators: variation in agreement by injury severity

Purpose: To evaluate agreement between police and trained investigators regarding seat belt use by crash victims, according to injury severity. Methods: We used data from the National Accident Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) for front seat occupants, 16 years and older, in crashes during 1993–2000. Crashworthiness Data System investigators determined belt use from vehicle inspection, interviews, and medical record information; their assessment was considered the gold standard for this analysis. Occupant severity of injury was categorized in five levels from no injuries to death. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristic curves for police reports of belt use. Results: Among 48,858 occupants, sensitivity of a police report that a belt was used was 95.8% overall and varied only modestly by injury severity. Specificity of a police report that a belt was not used was 69.1% overall; it was the lowest among the uninjured (53.2%) and greatest among the dead (90.4%). The area under the curve was 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.82–0.83) overall; this was lowest among those not injured (0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.74–0.76) and increased with injury severity to 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.90–0.93) among those who died. Conclusion: Police usually classify belted crash victims as belted, regardless of injury severity. But they often classify unbelted survivors as belted when they were not. This misclassification may result in exaggerated estimates of seat belt effectiveness in some studies.     

Predicting injury risk with “New Car Assessment Program” crashworthiness ratings

The relationship between crashworthiness ratings produced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA's) New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) and the risk of incapacitating injury or death for drivers who are involved in single-car, fixed-object, frontal collisions was examined. The results are based on 6,405 such crashes from the Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident file of the Texas Department of Highways and Public Transportation. The risk of injury was modeled using logistic regression taking into account the NCAP test results for each individual model of car and the intervening effects of car mass, age of the driver, restraint use, and crash severity. Three measures of anthropometric dummy response, Head Injury Criterion (HIC), Chest Deceleration (CD), and femur load were used to indicate vehicle crash test performance. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the results of the NCAP tests and the risk of serious injury or death in actual single-car frontal accidents. In terms of overall injury, chest deceleration was a better predictor than the Head Injury Criterion. For restrained drivers, crash severity, driver age, and chest deceleration were significant parameters for predicting risk of serious injury or death; the risk of injury decreased as chest deceleration decreased. The results were similar for unrestrained drivers although vehicle mass and femur load were also significant factors in the model. The risk of overall injury decreased as chest deceleration decreased but appeared to decrease as femur load increased.