Causation in AI and Law

Reasoning about causation in fact is an essential element of attributing legal responsibility. Therefore, the automation of the attribution of legal responsibility requires a modelling effort aimed at the following: a thorough understanding of the relation between the legal concepts of responsibility and of causation in fact; a thorough understanding of the relation between causation in fact and the common sense concept of causation; and, finally, the specification of an ontology of the concepts that are minimally required for (automatic) common sense reasoning about causation. This article offers a worked-out example of the indicated analysis. Such example consists of: a definition of the legal concept of responsibility (in terms of liability and accountability); a definition of the legal concept of causation in fact (in terms of the initiation of physical processes by an agent and of the provision of reasons and/or opportunities to other agents); CausatiOnt, an AI-like ontology of the common sense (causal) concepts that are minimally needed for reasoning about the legal concept of causation in fact (in particular, the concepts of category, dimension, object, agent, process, event and act).     

Common causes and the direction of causation

Is the common cause principle merely one of a set of useful heuristics for discovering causal relations, or is it rather a piece of heavy duty metaphysics, capable of grounding the direction of causation itself? Since the principle was introduced in Reichenbach’s groundbreaking work The Direction of Time (1956), there have been a series of attempts to pursue the latter program—to take the probabilistic relationships constitutive of the principle of the common cause and use them to ground the direction of causation. These attempts have not all explicitly appealed to the principle as originally formulated; it has also appeared in the guise of independence conditions, counterfactual overdetermination, and, in the causal modelling literature, as the causal markov condition. In this paper, I identify a set of difficulties for grounding the asymmetry of causation on the principle and its descendents. The first difficulty, concerning what I call the vertical placement of causation, consists of a tension between considerations that drive towards the macroscopic scale, and considerations that drive towards the microscopic scale—the worry is that these considerations cannot both be comfortably accommodated. The second difficulty consists of a novel potential counterexample to the principle based on the familiar Einstein Podolsky Rosen (EPR) correlations in quantum mechanics.     

Drivers' errors in,and out of,context

Error depends for its definition, commission, and the seriousness of its consequences on the circumstances in which it occurs. As such, it is argued, in this overview of a large number of contemporary papers on (driver) error, that an erroneous act is only a useful index of behaviour where the background to that act is properly understood. The role of error in the development of skill, and its relationship to accident causation and risk-taking is discussed from this point of view.     

Hitchcock’s (2001) treatment of singular and general causation

Hitchcock (2001a) argues that the distinction between singular and general causation conflates the two distinctions ‘actual causation vs. causal tendencies’ and ‘wide vs. narrow causation’. Based on a recent regularity account of causation I will show that Hitchcock’s introduction of the two distinctions is an unnecessary multiplication of causal concepts.

The role of latent and active failures in workplace slips, trips and falls: an information processing approach

The vast majority of the published workplace slips, trips and falls (STF) literature is exceedingly narrow in its focus and often ignores wider systems issues in workplace STF aetiology. There is little recognition within the published literature of the importance of latent failures or the upstream organisational and cultural contexts within which workplace STF occur. This is unfortunate, as a systems approach to workplace STF analysis, that is inclusive of latent design and work organisation factors that often shape worker behaviour patterns related to STF risk (e.g. rushing, risk taking), is fundamental to the development of effective prevention measures. The aims of this paper are to provide an understanding of workplace STF causation that is cognisant of the potential role of both active and latent failures in STF causation. The paper presents an ergonomics model for workplace STF analysis that highlights information processing in STF aetiology, the STF incident process and the interaction between latent and active failures in STF causation. The paper draws upon ergonomics research conducted in a range of occupational contexts to illustrate the key features of the model as it applies to workplace STF. Implications of the model for analysis and prevention of STF are discussed.     

Correlation between Different Hand Force Assessment Methods from an Epidemiological Study

This article presents the outcome of correlation analyses of data results obtained from using different methods for objectively and subjectively assessing hand force from a prospective study of 450 blue‐collar workers from several companies and industries, followed for up to 3 years. The study collected detailed ergonomic exposure data at baseline and upper extremity health outcome data at baseline and every 4 months during the study. Ultimately, the study was intended to evaluate dose‐response relationships of specific upper extremity disorders with detailed physical and psychosocial exposure data at the workplace while controlling for important individual factors. This article presents the methods used to collect data, as well as the hand force results of the epidemiological study in aggregate correlated form, as a means of exploring the degree of independence between the variables considered. These insights are useful in identifying musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) causation and predicting MSD risk based on work exposures. An enhanced understanding of the independence of MSD causal factors is instrumental in establishing more accurate multivariable models of MSD causation that will play an important role in extrapolating from the understanding of mechanisms of causation to establishing effective recommendations and programs to prevent the occurrence of MSDs. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Deep Teleology in Artificial Systems

Teleological variations of non-deterministic processes are defined. The immediate past of a system defines the state from which the ordinary (non-teleological) dynamical law governing the system derives different possible present states. For every possible present state, again a number of possible states for the next time step can be defined, and so on. After k time steps, a selection criterion is applied. The present state leading to the selected state after k time steps is taken to be the effective present state. Hence, the present state of a system is defined by its past in the sense that the past determines the possible states that are to be considered, and by its future in the sense that the selection of a possible future state determines the effective present state. A system that obeys this type of teleological dynamics may have significantly better performance than its non-teleological counterpart. The basic reason is that evolutions that are less optimal for the present time step, but which lead to a higher optimality after k time steps, may be preferred. This abstract concept of teleology is implemented for two concrete systems. First, it is applied to a general method for function approximation and classification problems. The method at issue treats all problems handled by conventional connectionism, and is suited for information with inner structure also. Second, it is applied to a dynamics in which forms of maximal homogeneity have to be produced. The relevance of the latter dynamics for generative art is illustrated. The teleology is `deep' in the sense that it is situated at the cellular level, in contradistinction with the teleology that is usually met in cognitive contexts, and which refers to macroscopic processes such as making plans. It is conjectured that deep level teleology is useful for machines, even though the issue if natural systems use this teleology is left open.     

Qualitative and quantitative conditions for the transitivity of perceived causation:

If A caused B and B caused C, did A cause C? Although laypersons commonly perceive causality as being transitive, some philosophers have questioned this assumption, and models of causality in artificial intelligence are often agnostic with respect to transitivity. We consider two formal models of causation that differ in the way they represent uncertainty. The quantitative model uses a crude probabilistic definition, arguably the common core of more sophisticated quantitative definitions; the qualitative model uses a definition based on nonmonotonic consequence relations. Different sufficient conditions for the transitivity of causation are laid bare by the two models: The Markov condition on events for the quantitative model, and a so-called saliency condition (A is perceived as a typical cause of B) for the qualitative model. We explore the formal and empirical relations between these sufficient conditions, and between the underlying definitions of perceived causation. These connections shed light on the range of applicability of each model, contrasting commonsense causal reasoning (supposedly qualitative) and scientific causation (more naturally quantitative). These speculations are supported by a series of three behavioral experiments.     

The Causal and Explanatory Role of Information Stored in Connectionist Networks

In this paper I defend the propriety of explaining the behavior of distributed connectionist networks by appeal to selected data stored therein. In particular, I argue that if there is a problem with such explanations, it is a consequence of the fact that information storage in networks is superpositional, and not because it is distributed. I then develop a ``proto-account' of causation for networks, based on an account of Andy Clark's, that shows even superpositionality does not undermine information-based explanation. Finally, I argue that the resulting explanations are genuinely informative and not vacuous.     

消费需求升级背景下的产业融合研究——以电子信息产业为例

本文从需求方的角度,重新思考了电子信息产业的融合动因及表现形式,说明以前对产业融合动因的认识如经济的全球化、政府放松管制及技术进步,归根结底都源自消费需求的升级。产业融合所导致的产业发展变化同时又对产业边界的认识及垄断与竞争的界定提出了新的问题。特别对于转型时期的中国,虽然不少企业在面临产业融合的趋势时作出了积极的应对,但政府管制的思路及对电子信息产业的调控政策还应作出相应的转变和调整。     

供电企业信息作业风险评估研究

在深入研究事故致因理论、事故风险管理和供电企业生产作业风险管理的基础上,提出了供电企业信息作业风险评估的模型和方法。有助于供电企业建立一套基于风险管理的信息作业指导书,为信息运维人员提供安全作业操作规范,减少安全事故的发生。     

Automatic threshold estimation for data matching applications

Several advanced data management applications, such as data integration, data deduplication, and similarity querying rely on the application of similarity functions. A similarity function requires the definition of a threshold value in order to decide whether two different data instances match, i.e., if they represent the same real world object. In this context, threshold definition is a central problem. This paper proposes a method for estimating the quality of a similarity function. Quality is measured in terms of recall and precision calculated at several different thresholds. Based on the results of the proposed estimation process and the requirements of a specific application, a user is able to choose a suitable threshold value. The estimation process is based on a clustering phase performed over a data collection (or a sample thereof) and requires no human intervention since the choice of similarity threshold is based on the silhouette coefficient, which is an internal quality measure for clusters. An extensive set of experiments on artificial and real datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results of the experiments show that in most cases the estimation error was below 10% in terms of precision and recall.     

On Refinement-Closed Security Properties and Nondeterministic Compositions

Refinement-closed security properties allow the verification of systems for all possible implementations. Some systems, however, have refinements that do not represent possible implementations. In particular, real instantiations of abstract systems comprising security-critical components surrounded by maximally hostile unrefined components are often characterised only by compositions of refinements of the abstract system's components, rather than all refinements of the abstract system. In this case, refinement-closed security properties that examine multiple behaviours of a system at once can be falsely violated by the presence of inconsistent pairs of behaviour arising from different, incompatible refinements of the system's components.We show how to weaken a class of such properties, which includes both information flow and causation properties, to allow them to be applied to these sorts of abstract systems. The weakened properties ignore all pairs of inconsistent behaviour that would have violated the original property from which they are derived. We also show how to adapt existing automated tests for these properties to allow them to be used to test for their weakened counterparts instead. This enables greater flexibility in the application of these sorts of properties to compositions of nondeterministic components.     

Is There Life After the Death of the Computational Theory of Mind?

In this paper, I explore the implications of Fodor’s attacks on the Computational Theory of Mind (CTM), which get their most recent airing in The Mind Doesn’t Work That Way. I argue that if Fodor is right that the CTM founders on the global nature of abductive inference, then several of the philosophical views about the mind that he has championed over the years founder as well. I focus on Fodor’s accounts of mental causation, psychological explanation, and intentionality.     

解约束多目标优化问题的一种鲁棒的进化算法

将约束条件与目标函数融合在一起,对有约束的多目标优化问题(MOP)建立了一种新的偏序关系,引入了约束占优的定义,并证明了在新的偏序关系意义下的Pareto最优集就是满足约束条件的Pareto最优集,从而在对种群中的个体进行评估或排序时,并不需要特别去关心个体是否可行,避免了罚函数选择参数的困难,尝试应用有限Markov链的有关理论证明了此进化算法的收敛性,用较复杂的Benchmark函数进行了大量的数值实验,测试结果表明新算法在解集分布的均匀性、多样性以及快速收敛性均较理想。     

基于核函数的软件定义网络DDoS实时安全系统

针对软件定义网络中DDoS攻击的检测准确率与延迟较长的问题,提出了一种基于核函数的软件定义网络DDoS实时安全系统。首先,每个周期提取软件定义网络的报文头信息,并组织成矩阵形式;其次,采用马氏距离分析相邻特征向量的显著变化,设计了两个核函数综合评估攻击行为的流量;最终,采用谱聚类技术与协方差统计信息自动地定位攻击者。基于真实软件定义网络进行了实验,结果显示该安全系统实现了较高的检测准确率,并且实现了理想的处理时间。     

Guaranteed roll-off in a class of high-gain feedback design problems

A number of synthesis problems associated with (almost) disturbance decoupling by state or measurement feedback is considered. Starting from a mathematical definition of the notion of high-frequency roll-off, known results on the solvability of these problems are generalized to the situation in which we require their solvability together with a certain guaranteed roll-off between disturbance and control. The conditions are formulated in terms of the solvability and approximate solvability of certain matrix equations in rational functions.