黄河三门峡段水环境健康风险评价

基于水环境健康风险评价模式,选择1995年至2002年的水质监测资料,对黄河三门峡段进行了水环境健康风险评价。评价结果表明:非致癌物质由饮水途径所致健康危害的个人年风险以Pb为最大,NH3-N次之;化学致癌物质中As和Cd的最大个人年风险分别达到2.272×10-4a-1和3.173×10-5a-1。化学致癌物质对人体健康危害的个人年风险远远超过非致癌物质对人体健康危害的个人年风险,应作为风险决策管理的重点对象。     

考虑蓄水期弃水风险的水库长期发电调度方法

短期径流的大幅波动使得以平均径流为基础制定的水库长期调度方案面临较大弃水风险,是影响水库长期调度决策合理性的重要因素。本文考虑日尺度径流波动影响,提出一种蓄水期弃水风险量化方法,并建立了耦合弃水风险的水库长期发电调度模型。利用长系列日径流资料,结合风险最小蓄水规则,以不蓄弃水流量为指标量化蓄水期各月弃水风险;采用Copula函数构建月均入流与弃水风险的联合分布和条件概率分布,明晰了特定入流条件的风险置信区间;最后,将弃水风险以弃电损失函数融入优化模型,以获得更符合实际的长期调度方案。以澜沧江流域小湾水库为工程背景进行调度模拟分析,结果表明本文方法能够有效降低水库长期优化调度方案的弃水风险,有利于提高优化结果的可操作性,与传统方法相比,能够使多年平均弃水减少约4.76亿m³、发电量增加约1.15亿kW·h。     

深圳市降水变化特征及其未来变化情况预测

基于1998—2018年深圳市日降水资料,采用降水相对变率、集中度及集中期分析了月尺度、年尺度降水稳定性及其年内分配特征,运用Mann-Kendall非参数法和相关函数法对深圳市年降水量、降水稳定性和分配特征参数的变化趋势、突变特征及其未来降水变化特征进行分析与预估。结果表明:深圳市汛期降水稳定性比非汛期更好,年际降水分布稳定性较差,降水集中期为每年6—8月份,降水集中度处于0.23~0.72;降水量和降水分布特征参数均在2011—2013年发生突变,在发生突变后降水相对变率和集中度呈下降趋势,而年降水量和集中期呈上升趋势;深圳市未来降水序列变化趋势受过去变化特征的影响,其中未来年降水量有减少的趋势,降水集中程度逐渐增强,降水稳定性逐渐变差,年内降水分配均匀性变差,降水集中期持续向后推迟。研究成果为深圳市合理蓄水和用水提供科学依据,对水资源调度、利用以及防汛抗旱具有实际指导意义和重要的学术价值。     

Automated Mapping of Surface Water Temperature in the Great Lakes

A procedure for producing daily cloud-free maps of surface water temperature in the Great Lakes has been developed. It is based on satellite-derived AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) imagery from NOAA's CoastWatch program. The maps have a nominal resolution of 2.6 km and provide as complete as possible coverage of the Great Lakes on a daily basis by using previous imagery to estimate temperatures in cloud covered areas. Surface water temperature estimates derived from this procedure compare well with water temperatures measured at the eight NOAA weather buoys in the lakes. The mean difference between the buoy temperature and the satellite-derived temperature estimates is less than 0.5°C for all buoys. The root mean square differences range from 1.10 to 1.76°C.As one example of the possible applications of this product, the daily surface water temperature maps for 1992 to 1997 were analyzed to produce daily estimates of average surface water temperature for each lake. Results are compared to the long-term (28 year) mean annual cycle of average surface water temperatures. The average surface water temperatures vary from as much as 4°C below climatology in 1993 to 2 to 3°C above climatology in 1995. The new analysis procedure also provides a more realistic depiction of the spatial distribution of temperature in the springtime than the climatological maps.     

林芝市饮用水水源地健康风险评价

为掌握林芝市饮用水源地水质安全现状,对其境内7个县级以上饮用水源地水样进行检测和分析,通过综合水质标识指数法评价了各水源地水质现状,运用健康风险评价模型评价了各水源水的健康风险。结果表明:林芝市水源地水质总体良好,能满足地表水源地保护区水质功能区II类标准(镉除外),各水源地水体中重金属和氮盐指标经饮水途径对人体造成健康危害的总风险8. 88×10-5～1. 12×10-4a-1之间,均超过了国际放射防护委员会推荐值5. 0×10-5a-1,主要风险因子为致癌物Cd。各水源地致癌物质风险值远高于非致癌物质,该地区人们所面临的致癌风险以镉为主,这需引起水源地管理部门的重视,其余非致癌物风险低于最大可接受限制,对人体健康几乎不构成危害,适合作为饮水水源.。     

Simulating Future Groundwater Recharge in Coastal and Inland Catchments

Groundwater is a primary source of drinking water in the Mediterranean, however, climate variability in conjunction with mismanagement renders it vulnerable to depletion. Spatiotemporal studies of groundwater recharge are the basis to develop strategies against this phenomenon. In this study, groundwater recharge was spatiotemporally quantified using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in one coastal and one inland hydrological basin in Greece. A double calibration/validation (CV) procedure using streamflow data and MODIS ET was conducted for the inland basin of Mouriki, whereas only ET values were used in the coastal basin of Anthemountas. Calibration and simulation recharge were accurate in both sites according to statistical indicators and previous studies. In Mouriki basin, mean recharge and runoff were estimated as 16% and 9%, respectively. In Anthemountas basin recharge to the shallow aquifer and surface runoff were estimated as 12% and 16%, respectively. According to the predicted RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, significant variations in groundwater recharge are predicted in the coastal zone for the period 2020–2040 with average annual recharges decreasing by 30% (RCP 4.5) and 25% (RCP 8.5). Variations in groundwater recharge in the inland catchment of Mouriki were insignificant for the simulated period. Anthemountas basin was characterized by higher runoff rates. Groundwater management in coastal aquifers should include detailed monitoring of hydrological parameters, reinforced groundwater recharge during winter and reduced groundwater abstraction during summer depending on the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater recharge.

     

Biofilms, thermophilic amoebae and Legionella pneumophila--a quantitative risk assessment for distributed water.

A simplistic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) based on the maximum risk curve (r = 1) was developed for Legionella within a water distribution system. Both biofilms and a thermophilic isolate of acanthamoebae were shown to increase the resistance of Legionella to conventional thermal disinfection by between one and two logs respectively. The level of risk presented to consumers was shown to exceed the USEPA 10(-4) benchmark in many cases tested. This was caused, in part, by the sensitivity of the risk model but also through a lack of reliable dose-response data for Legionella. Not withstanding this, the current study provided comparative information on the efficacy of conventional disinfection against Legionella. Combined chlorine was shown to reduce the risk of infection by as much as 1-log when compared to free chlorine, although thermal disinfection provided the most effective means of risk reduction. Biofilm detachment and the interaction of Legionella with acanthamoebae were two important ecological factors that significantly increased the risk of legionellosis, and thus should be further considered in the refinement of QMRA models.     

长江和清江洪水遭遇风险分析

目前常用的洪水遭遇风险分析方法尚局限于简单的统计计算，无法对百年一遇或千年一遇等设计洪水的遭遇风险进行定量估算。本文引入混合von Mises分布拟合长江上游与清江年最大洪水发生时间的双峰特征（夏汛和秋汛），应用Copula函数分别构造了两江年最大洪水发生时间及年最大洪水发生时间与其量级之间的联合分布，分析研究了两江年最大洪水发生时间及发生量级遭遇的风险特征，并定量估算了汛期每日遭遇的风险率。     

Possible Regional Probability Distribution Type of Canadian Annual Streamflow by L-moments

For effective planning, design, and management of water resources engineering, the probability distribution of annual streamflow is necessary. The method of L-moments is applied to identify the probability distribution type of annual streamflow in different climatic regions of Canada. In the Pacific and southern British Columbia mountains (regions 1 and 2), the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution fits the observations best with the 3-parameter lognormal (LN3) and log Pearson type III (LP3) as potential candidates. In Yukon and northern British Columbia (region 3), the LN3 distribution corresponds to observations best with the LP3 and P3 as potential candidates. In the northwestern forest (region 5), the LP3 distribution matches observations best with the P3 and GEV as potential candidates. In Arctic Tundra (region 10), the 3-parameter Weibull (W3) is the best one with the LN3 and P3 as potential candidates. The P3 distribution provides a best-fit to observations in the Prairies (region 4), northeastern forest (region 6), great Lakes and St. Lawrence (region 7), Atlantic (region 8), and Mackenzie (region 9) with the LN3, LP3, and GEV as potential candidates.     

赣江流域非一致性条件下设计洪水估计

赣江流域年最大日径流量在过去60a呈现出显著的变异特征,以此为样本序列,选用广义极值(GEV)分布来对其进行拟合,并基于五种气候模式输出结果对未来设计洪水的变化情况进行分析。所选协变量包括时间t、洪水前N日降水量和下垫面信息。相关关系分析表明,N=10时降水与洪水关系最为密切,但流域内土地利用类型仅呈现出微弱的变化趋势。模拟结果表明,洪水序列服从Weibull分布,其中形状参数ξ=-0.169、尺度参数σ=2 078.9、位置参数μ=65.1c+437.1。非一致性条件下的设计洪水值与传统方法计算的设计值存在很大区别,设计洪水值在1994年要偏大4 000m~3/s以上,其面临的洪水风险要远超普通年份。未来的设计洪水在低、中、高三种排放情景下均呈现出上升趋势,峰值出现于2040年前后,较1994年估计值偏大1 000～2500 m~3/s。     

九江市水资源量及其变化趋势分析

水文部门积累了长系列的水文资料,2008年完成了1956-2000年江西省水资源调查评价工作.本文在此基础上,结合近15年水资源调查评价工作,分析了1956-2015年九江市降水的年内分配、年际变化及空间分布特征,进而阐述了九江市60年水资源量的特征和年际变化规律,采用线性趋势回归检验法,利用SPSS软件对九江市水资源量的变化趋势进行分析.结果表明:九江市水资源量由于受到降水时空分布特征的影响,其年际变化较大;历年水资源总量有增加趋势,但趋势不明显.     

三峡库区干支流水体交换特征初步研究——以朱衣河为例

通过对三峡库区中部典型支流朱衣河与干流界面水动力参数、河口流场强度与特征的分析,计算了干支流水体交换通量,进而探讨水库运行各个时期干支流水体交换情况及其对库区水环境的影响。结果表明,朱衣河河口水体具有双向流动特性,水库运行各个时期干支流交界面进出水体分布不同,流速差异显著;不同季节与水库运行期河口流场相应表现出上下分层、左右分布,以及进出流量差异显著等特征;尽管朱衣河河口净流量较小（全年大部分时期小于100 m3/s）,然而双向水流结构的存在致使水体有效交换量相对显著（约为净流量的5～10倍）。根据朱衣河实测数据及相关资料,初步推算了库区干流水体参与干支流水体交换的比例,得出全年平均交换率为204 %,1月份最高,达343 %。     

Assessment of microbial infection risks posed by ingestion of water during domestic water use and full-contact recreation in a mid-southern African region.

A customised Water-related Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (WRQMRA) process was used to determine risk of infection to water ingested by users in the south-eastern Free State, South Africa. The WRQMRA consisted of an observed-adverse-effect-level approach (OAELA) and a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The OAELA was based on the occurrence of E. coli in the study waters to determine the possible risk of infection and the QMRA probable risk of infection by salmonellae. The WRQMRA was applied to recreational surface resource waters as well as waters from an unprotected spring and waters from the treated municipal supply that were stored in containers for domestic purposes. E. coli numbers were measured against expected infection levels expressed in water quality guidelines, while Salmonella counts were calculated to give the probable infection risk (Pi). Ingestion was based on intake volumes compiled for the various water uses. E. coli occurred in numbers <10(6) in the surface waters, while the untreated spring and treated supply water contained E. coli of <10(2) and <10(1) respectively. Salmonella occurred in numbers of <10(3) in recreational waters, and <10(-1) in water used for domestic purposes. A single exposure to the mean (as well as 95th percentile) risk was calculated using a beta-Poisson dose-response model at ingestion volumes of 100 mL (for full-contact recreation) and 1,318 mL (for domestic water use). Both the OAELA and the QMRA approaches indicated a risk of infection to recreational and domestic water users, even for a single exposure event, with the OAELA either over- or under-estimating the risk of infection for singular exposure events. This indicated that this method, used on its own, could not reliably predict a realistic risk of infection. It is recommended that the full WRQMRA process be used, and further developed to address several uncertainties that became evident during this study.     

南水北调中线水源区氮磷面源污染负荷计算

近几十年来,南水北调中线水源区农业面源污染问题日益凸显。选取丹江口库区代表性监测断面进行水质和富营养化分析,并利用输出系数法计算分析水源区面源污染情况。分析结论为:丹江口库区水质基本良好,但总氮浓度超标,目前富营养化程度不高,尚处于中营养状态;2014年南水北调中线水源区总氮年输出量为13.53万t,总磷年输出量为0.63万t,其中畜禽养殖业对总氮年输出量的贡献率最高,农村生活对总磷年输出量的贡献率最高;按照行政区划分析,总氮年输出量最高的市为十堰市,总磷年输出量最高的市为汉中市;南阳市是水源区单位面积污染负荷强度最高的市;平原丘陵区单位面积面源污染负荷强度最高,面源污染负荷强度随着海拔的上升明显降低。通过计算水源区不同区域面源污染情况,可以摸清中线水源区面源污染总量及分布特征,为水源区的水质保护和管理提供支撑。     

黄土中降雨入渗规律的现场监测研究

已有许多人工降雨试验确定的黄土入渗深度有限,一般很少超过4m,由此认为降雨难以通过正常渗流途径到达地下水位;而是通过裂隙、落水洞等通道灌入深部补给地下水的。然而调查发现,这种入水通道仅在黄土塬边的卸荷区常见,塬的中部很少。为了了解黄土地区地表水以何种方式补给地下水,在甘肃正宁县建立了一个监测站,通过在一深度为10 m的探井井壁上埋设土壤水分计,对天然降雨入渗条件下不同深度黄土层的体积含水率变化情况进行了为期一年的连续监测,同时采用雨量计记录其间的日降雨量。结果表明：2 m以内的浅部土层,土壤水分具有周年的背景变化趋势,该趋势和蒸发量的变化趋势吻合。当日降雨量小于18mm/d时,水分仅在表层循环,对地表以下（>20cm）的含水率几乎没有影响。当日降雨量大于18mm/d时,才会引起土壤含水率骤增,降雨量越大,土壤含水率增幅越大,影响深度越大,随着深度增加,增幅减小,时间上渐有滞后。观测点黄土的浸润带约为2m,2m以下的非饱和黄土中,水分以非饱和渗流或水汽形式迁移,水汽迁移量很小,但不可忽视,当遇到透水性差的古土壤层时,会在其顶部富集,长期作用则可能形成软弱带,诱发黄土滑坡。     

Modelling the length of microbiological protection zones around phreatic sandy aquifers in The Netherlands.

The aim of the current study was to calculate the size of protection zones around (sub)oxic and anoxic sandy aquifers without confining layers using a virus infection and transport model. The maximum allowable virus infection risk was 10(-4)/person/year at the 95% confidence level. Model results demonstrated that phreatic (sub)oxic sandy aquifers in The Netherlands required protection areas with a residence time of 43-117 d to ensure that the maximum virus infection risk would not be exceeded. This was 0.7-2 x the current guideline of 60d. In contrast, phreatic anoxic sandy aquifers without confining layers needed protection zones of 555-898d to stay below the maximum virus infection risk, 9.5-15 x the current guideline. A sensitivity analysis of the model demonstrated that the calculated protection zone was most sensitive for virus inactivation rate and collision efficiency. Values of both parameters were predicted from values obtained from previously published field and laboratory studies. At present, as it is unknown if these values can also be used at other locations, model results should be interpreted with care.     

Spatial Pattern Characterization and Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China

Consecutive extreme rainfall events, especially those having unfavourable spatio-temporal patterns, always trigger large floods. This paper aims to examine, through the multivariate hydrological frequency analysis, the probability of the synchronous occurrence of rainfall extremes in the Pearl River basin. The copula method together with the stationarity and independence tests, which are crucial to the valid use of statistical methods in regional frequency analyses, were applied in the study. The obtained results indicate that: (1) major precipitation events of the annual maximum 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day rainfall recorded at 42 stations are the flat looking series and variables are independent, (2) the marginal distribution of all extreme rainfall variables in four homogeneous hydrologic regions fits the log-normal probability distribution and most of their joint distribution fits the Gumbel-Hougaard distribution, (3) on that basis the contour maps of the joint distribution of annual maximum 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day rainfall between different regions are drawn and the probability of the synchronous occurrence of the extreme rainfalls in different regions are estimated. These findings have great practical value for the regional water resources and flood risk management and are important in exploration of the spatial patterns of rainfall extremes in the Pearl River basin in order to reveal the underlying linkages between precipitation and floods from a broader geographical perspective.     

Photocatalytic inactivation of Flavobacterium and E. coli in water by a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) fed with suspended/immobilised TiO2 medium

A photocatalytic continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) was built at laboratory scale to inactivate two environmental bacteria strains (Flavobacterium and E. coli) in tap water. Several parameters were found to impact reactor efficiency. Bacterial initial concentration is an important factor in inactivation rate. After 30 minutes of irradiation at 10(8)-10(9) CFU mL(-1) starting concentration, a >5 log reduction was achieved while at 10(4)-10(6) CFU mL(-1) only a 2 log reduction was observed. Water hardness and pH have an important influence on the photocatalytic inactivation process. Soft water, with low Ca(+2) and Mg(+2) at low pH approximately 5.3 resulted in increased inactivation of Flavobacterium reaching >6 orders of magnitude reduction. E. coli and Flavobacterium at pH 5 were inactivated by 3 logs more as compared to pH 7 under similar conditions. pH below TiO2 isoelectric point (approximately 5.6) supports better contact between bacteria and anatase particles resulting in superior inactivation. TiO2 powder suspension was compared with immobilised powder in sol-gel coated glass beads in order to exclude the need for particles separation from the treated water. TiO2 suspension was more effective by 3 orders of magnitude when compared to coated glass beads. An interesting observation was found between the two bacterial strains based on their hydrophobicity/hydrophilicity balance. The more hydrophobic Flavobacterium compared to E. coli was inactivated photocatalytically by >3 logs more then E. coli in the first 30 minutes of irradiation interval. The results indicate the importance of the parameters involved in the contact between TiO2 particles and microorganisms that govern the successful inactivation rate in CSTR.     

洞庭湖出入湖氮磷通量特征及滞留效应研究

采用2013—2017年洞庭湖主要出入湖断面水质、水量监测数据,估算洞庭湖经由“四水”（湘江、资水、沅江、澧水）和长江“三口”（松滋口、太平口、藕池口）入湖及城陵矶出湖氮、磷通量,分析其时空变化特征及滞留效应。结果表明：时间上,2013—2016年“四水”“三口”年均入湖氮、磷通量总体呈增加趋势,但2017年受入湖水质改善、水量减小的同步影响,相比2016年入湖氮、磷通量分别减小了19.93%、23.14%,受水情影响,入湖氮、磷通量在年内分配不均,70%以上集中在4—9月;空间上,入湖氮、磷通量主要来源于“四水”水系,分别占78.48%和71.77%,其中湘江和沅江的贡献较大。“四水”受点、面源污染的综合作用,而“三口”的面源污染是其主要污染来源。此外,洞庭湖氮、磷滞留率很低,藻类浓度不高,但湖区氮、磷浓度（1.73、0.075 mg/L）仍远高于湖泊藻类暴发的临界值（0.20、0.02 mg/L）。为降低湖泊水华的发生风险,关键是保持湖泊的连通性,警惕长江“三口”区域总磷风险,并兼顾湖滨区污染物控制。     

基于水量平衡的长江上游地区气象水文要素时空变化特征分析

基于1980—2019年长江上游地区的逐月气温、降水数据,采用一元线性回归、F趋势检验、水量平衡分析、质心识别等方法,揭示了长江上游地区近40 a来气象水文要素的时空分布特征和变化规律.研究结果表明:①长江上游地区年均气温、年均降水量和年均蒸发量的空间分布均呈现由东南向西北逐渐降低的趋势,年均土壤蓄水变化量有着较大的空...