Reliability and cost optimization of electronic devices considering the component failure rate uncertainty

The objective of this paper is to present an efficient computational methodology to obtain the optimal system structure of electronic devices by using either a single or a multiobjective optimization approach, while considering the constraints on reliability and cost. The component failure rate uncertainty is taken under consideration and it is modeled with two alternative probability distribution functions. The Latin hypercube sampling method is used to simulate the probability distributions. An optimization approach was developed using the simulated annealing algorithm because of its flexibility to be applied in various system types with several constraints and its efficiency in computational time. This optimization approach can handle efficiently either the single or the multiobjective optimization modeling of the system design. The developed methodology was applied to a power electronic device and the results were compared with the results of the complete enumeration of the solution space. The stochastic nature of the best solutions for the single objective optimization modeling of the system design was sampled extensively and the robustness of the developed optimization approach was demonstrated.     

Reliability optimization of complex systems using modified random‐to‐pattern search (MRPS) algorithm

The modified random‐to‐pattern search (MRPS) algorithm, developed by the authors for global optimization, is applied to find the global optimum of system cost of a complex system subject to constraints on system reliability. The global optimum solutions obtained by MRPS are compared with those obtained by employing gradient techniques as well as random search‐based methods from the literature to solve the same problems. Results clearly indicate that the proposed MRPS algorithm is more robust and efficient in overcoming difficulties associated with local optima and the need for a starting solution vector. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization of machining datum selection and machining tolerance allocation with genetic algorithms

In machining process planning, selection of machining datum and allocation of machining tolerances are crucial as they directly affect the part quality and machining efficiency. This study explores the feasibility to build a mathematical model for computer aided process planning (CAPP) to find the optimal machining datum set and machining tolerances simultaneously for rotational parts. Tolerance chart and an efficient dimension chain tracing method are utilized to establish the relationship between machining datums and tolerances. A mixed-discrete nonlinear optimization model is formulated with the manufacturing cost as the objective function and blueprint tolerances and machine tool capabilities as constraints. A directed random search method, genetic algorithm (GA), is used to find optimum solutions. The computational results indicate that the proposed methodology is capable and robust in finding the optimal machining datum set and tolerances. The proposed model and solution procedure can be used as a building block for computer automated process planning.     

An efficient approach for reliability-based topology optimization

This article presents an efficient approach for reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) in which the computational effort involved in solving the RBTO problem is equivalent to that of solving a deterministic topology optimization (DTO) problem. The methodology presented is built upon the bidirectional evolutionary structural optimization (BESO) method used for solving the deterministic optimization problem. The proposed method is suitable for linear elastic problems with independent and normally distributed loads, subjected to deflection and reliability constraints. The linear relationship between the deflection and stiffness matrices along with the principle of superposition are exploited to handle reliability constraints to develop an efficient algorithm for solving RBTO problems. Four example problems with various random variables and single or multiple applied loads are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach in solving RBTO problems. The major contribution of this article comes from the improved efficiency of the proposed algorithm when measured in terms of the computational effort involved in the finite element analysis runs required to compute the optimum solution. For the examples presented with a single applied load, it is shown that the CPU time required in computing the optimum solution for the RBTO problem is 15–30% less than the time required to solve the DTO problems. The improved computational efficiency allows for incorporation of reliability considerations in topology optimization without an increase in the computational time needed to solve the DTO problem.     

Simultaneous single-loop multimaterial and multijoint topology optimization

As the aerospace and automotive industries continue to strive for efficient lightweight structures, topology optimization (TO) has become an important tool in this design process. However, one ever-present criticism of TO, and especially of multimaterial (MM) optimization, is that neither method can produce structures that are practical to manufacture. Optimal joint design is one of the main requirements for manufacturability. This article proposes a new density-based methodology for performing simultaneous MMTO and multijoint TO. This algorithm can simultaneously determine the optimum selection and placement of structural materials, as well as the optimum selection and placement of joints at material interfaces. In order to achieve this, a new solid isotropic material with penalization-based interpolation scheme is proposed. A process for identifying dissimilar material interfaces based on spatial gradients is also discussed. The capabilities of the algorithm are demonstrated using four case studies. Through these case studies, the coupling between the optimal structural material design and the optimal joint design is investigated. Total joint cost is considered as both an objective and a constraint in the optimization problem statement. Using the biobjective problem statement, the tradeoff between total joint cost and structural compliance is explored. Finally, a method for enforcing tooling accessibility constraints in joint design is presented.     

Structural reliability optimization using an efficient safety index calculation procedure

The objective of this paper is to conduct reliability-based structural optimization in a multidisciplinary environment. An efficient reliability analysis is developed by expanding the limit functions in terms of intermediate design variables. The design constraints are approximated using multivariate splines in searching for the optimum. The reduction in computational cost realized in safety index calculation and optimization are demonstrated through several structural problems. This paper presents safety index computation, analytical sensitivity analysis of reliability constraints and optimization using truss, frame and plate examples.     

An efficient analytical Bayesian method for reliability and system response updating based on Laplace and inverse first-order reliability computations

This paper presents an efficient analytical Bayesian method for reliability and system response updating without using simulations. The method includes additional information such as measurement data via Bayesian modeling to reduce estimation uncertainties. Laplace approximation method is used to evaluate Bayesian posterior distributions analytically. An efficient algorithm based on inverse first-order reliability method is developed to evaluate system responses given a reliability index or confidence interval. Since the proposed method involves no simulations such as Monte Carlo or Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, the overall computational efficiency improves significantly, particularly for problems with complicated performance functions. A practical fatigue crack propagation problem with experimental data, and a structural scale example are presented for methodology demonstration. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method are compared with traditional simulation-based methods.     

Reliability based design optimization using response surfaces in application to multidisciplinary systems

Traditionally, reliability based design optimization (RBDO) is formulated as a nested optimization problem. For these problems the objective is to minimize a cost function while satisfying the reliability constraints. The reliability constraints are usually formulated as constraints on the probability of failure corresponding to each of the failure modes or a single constraint on the system probability of failure. The probability of failure is usually estimated by performing a reliability analysis. The difficulty in evaluating reliability constraints comes from the fact that modern reliability analysis methods are themselves formulated as an optimization problem. Solving such nested optimization problems is extremely expensive for large scale multidisciplinary systems which are likewise computationally intensive. In this research, a framework for performing reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization using approximations is developed. Response surface approximations (RSA) of the limit state functions are used to estimate the probability of failure. An outer loop is incorporated to ensure that the approximate RBDO converges to the actual most probable point of failure. The framework is compared with the exact RBDO procedure. In the proposed methodology, RSAs are employed to significantly reduce the computational expense associated with traditional RBDO. The proposed approach is implemented in application to multidisciplinary test problems, and the computational savings and benefits are discussed.     

Probabilistic optimal design of laminates using improved particle swarm optimization

A new approach to the particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed for the solution of non-linear optimization problems with constraints, and is applied to the reliability-based optimum design of laminated composites. Special mutation-interference operators are introduced to increase swarm variety and improve the convergence performance of the algorithm. The reliability-based optimum design of laminated composites is modelled and solved using the improved PSO. The maximization of structural reliability and the minimization of total weight of laminates are analysed. The stacking sequence optimization is implemented in the improved PSO by using a special coding technique. Examples show that the improved PSO has high convergence and good stability and is efficient in dealing with the probabilistic optimal design of composite structures.     

Reliability optimization using multiobjective ant colony system approaches

The multiobjective ant colony system (ACS) meta-heuristic has been developed to provide solutions for the reliability optimization problem of series-parallel systems. This type of problems involves selection of components with multiple choices and redundancy levels that produce maximum benefits, and is subject to the cost and weight constraints at the system level. These are very common and realistic problems encountered in conceptual design of many engineering systems. It is becoming increasingly important to develop efficient solutions to these problems because many mechanical and electrical systems are becoming more complex, even as development schedules get shorter and reliability requirements become very stringent. The multiobjective ACS algorithm offers distinct advantages to these problems compared with alternative optimization methods, and can be applied to a more diverse problem domain with respect to the type or size of the problems. Through the combination of probabilistic search, multiobjective formulation of local moves and the dynamic penalty method, the multiobjective ACSRAP, allows us to obtain an optimal design solution very frequently and more quickly than with some other heuristic approaches. The proposed algorithm was successfully applied to an engineering design problem of gearbox with multiple stages.     

Application of Bayesian Methods for Age‐Dependent Reliability Analysis

In this article, the authors present a general methodology for age‐dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing components, structures and systems. The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference—its ability to incorporate prior information and on ideas that ageing can be thought of as age‐dependent change of beliefs about reliability parameters (mainly failure rate), when change of belief occurs not only because new failure data or other information becomes available with time but also because it continuously changes due to the flow of time and the evolution of beliefs. The main objective of this article is to present a clear way of how practitioners can apply Bayesian methods to deal with risk and reliability analysis considering ageing phenomena. The methodology describes step‐by‐step failure rate analysis of ageing components: from the Bayesian model building to its verification and generalization with Bayesian model averaging, which as the authors suggest in this article, could serve as an alternative for various goodness‐of‐fit assessment tools and as a universal tool to cope with various sources of uncertainty. The proposed methodology is able to deal with sparse and rare failure events, as is the case in electrical components, piping systems and various other systems with high reliability. In a case study of electrical instrumentation and control components, the proposed methodology was applied to analyse age‐dependent failure rates together with the treatment of uncertainty due to age‐dependent model selection. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Harmony search algorithm: application to the redundancy optimization problem

The redundancy optimization problem is a well known NP-hard problem which involves the selection of elements and redundancy levels to maximize system performance, given different system-level constraints. This article presents an efficient algorithm based on the harmony search algorithm (HSA) to solve this optimization problem. The HSA is a new nature-inspired algorithm which mimics the improvization process of music players. Two kinds of problems are considered in testing the proposed algorithm, with the first limited to the binary series–parallel system, where the problem consists of a selection of elements and redundancy levels used to maximize the system reliability given various system-level constraints; the second problem for its part concerns the multi-state series–parallel systems with performance levels ranging from perfect operation to complete failure, and in which identical redundant elements are included in order to achieve a desirable level of availability. Numerical results for test problems from previous research are reported and compared. The results of HSA showed that this algorithm could provide very good solutions when compared to those obtained through other approaches.     

Homotopy methods for constraint relaxation in unilevel reliability based design optimization

In reliability based design optimization, a methodology for finding optimized designs characterized with a low probability of failure the main objective is to minimize a merit function while satisfying the reliability constraints. Traditionally, these have been formulated as a double-loop (nested) optimization problem, which is computationally intensive. A new efficient unilevel formulation for reliability based design optimization was developed by the authors in earlier studies, where the lower-level optimization was replaced by its corresponding first-order Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) necessary optimality conditions at the upper-level optimization and imposed as equality constraints. But as most commercial optimizers are usually numerically unreliable when applied to problems accompanied by many equality constraints, an optimization framework for reliability based design using the unilevel formulation is developed here. Homotopy methods are used for constraint relaxation and to obtain a relaxed feasible design and heuristic scheme is employed to update the homotopy parameter.     

Integration of computation and testing for reliability estimation

This paper develops a methodology to integrate reliability testing and computational reliability analysis for product development. The presence of information uncertainty such as statistical uncertainty and modeling error is incorporated. The integration of testing and computation leads to a more cost-efficient estimation of failure probability and life distribution than the tests-only approach currently followed by the industry. A Bayesian procedure is proposed to quantify the modeling uncertainty using random parameters, including the uncertainty in mechanical and statistical model selection and the uncertainty in distribution parameters. An adaptive method is developed to determine the number of tests needed to achieve a desired confidence level in the reliability estimates, by combining prior computational prediction and test data. Two kinds of tests — failure probability estimation and life estimation — are considered. The prior distribution and confidence interval of failure probability in both cases are estimated using computational reliability methods, and are updated using the results of tests performed during the product development phase.     

基于差异演化算法和多属性决策的机电系统可靠性多目标优化设计

针对机电系统可靠性设计问题,以可靠性和费用(或体积等)最优为目标建立可靠性设计的多目标优化模型．提出了自适应多目标差异演化算法,该算法提出了自适应缩放因子和混沌交叉率,采用改进的快速排序方法构造Pareto最优解,采用NSGA-II的拥挤操作对档案文件进行消减．采用自适应多目标差异演化算法获得多目标问题的Pareto最优解,利用TOPSIS方法对Pareto最优解进行多属性决策．实际工程结果表明：自适应多目标差异演化算法调节参数更少,且求得的Pareto最优解分布均匀;采用基于TOPSIS的多属性决策方法得到的结果合理可行．     

Multi-objective genetic algorithm for solving N-version program design problem

N-version programming (NVP) is a programming approach for constructing fault tolerant software systems. Generally, an optimization model utilized in NVP selects the optimal set of versions for each module to maximize the system reliability and to constrain the total cost to remain within a given budget. In such a model, while the number of versions included in the obtained solution is generally reduced, the budget restriction may be so rigid that it may fail to find the optimal solution. In order to ameliorate this problem, this paper proposes a novel bi-objective optimization model that maximizes the system reliability and minimizes the system total cost for designing N-version software systems. When solving multi-objective optimization problem, it is crucial to find Pareto solutions. It is, however, not easy to obtain them. In this paper, we propose a novel bi-objective optimization model that obtains many Pareto solutions efficiently.We formulate the optimal design problem of NVP as a bi-objective 0–1 nonlinear integer programming problem. In order to overcome this problem, we propose a Multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA), which is a powerful, though time-consuming, method to solve multi-objective optimization problems. When implementing genetic algorithm (GA), the use of an appropriate genetic representation scheme is one of the most important issues to obtain good performance. We employ random-key representation in our MOGA to find many Pareto solutions spaced as evenly as possible along the Pareto frontier. To pursue improve further performance, we introduce elitism, the Pareto-insertion and the Pareto-deletion operations based on distance between Pareto solutions in the selection process.The proposed MOGA obtains many Pareto solutions along the Pareto frontier evenly. The user of the MOGA can select the best compromise solution among the candidates by controlling the balance between the system reliability and the total cost.     

离散变量结构优化设计的最优综合效能法

针对结构优化问题的位移约束,引入关键约束的界约参数,提出了结构位移统一约束的缩减形式,从而简化了结构优化模型。根据离散变量结构优化问题的特点,提出了效能系数的概念,它衡量设计变量在离散邻域范围内变化对目标函数与约束函数值的影响,并研究了基于效能系数取值分类的四种主要调整方式。根据结构应力和位移约束的影响区域属性,以综合效能最大化为引导,提出了求解离散变量结构优化问题的最优综合效能法。算例结果显示该算法具有良好的优化效率,可求得问题的最优解或获得历史上的最优记录。     

An engineering design methodology with multistage Bayesian surrogates and optimal sampling

This paper presents an adaptive, surrogate-based, engineering design methodology for the efficient use of numerical simulations of physical models. These surrogates are nonlinear regression models fitted with data obtained from deterministic numerical simulations using optimal sampling. A multistage Bayesian procedure is followed in the formulation of surrogates to support the evolutionary nature of engineering design. Information from computer simulations of different levels of accuracy and detail is integrated, updating surrogates sequentially to improve their accuracy. Data-adaptive optimal sampling is conducted by minimizing the sum of the eigenvalues of the prior covariance matrix. Metrics to quantify prediction errors are proposed and tested to evaluate surrogate accuracy given cost and time constraints. The proposed methodology is tested with a known analytical function to illustrate accuracy and cost tradeoffs. This methodology is then applied to the thermal design of embedded electronic packages with five design parameters. Temperature distributions of embedded electronic chip configurations are calculated using spectral element direct numerical simulations. Surrogates, built from 30 simulations in two stages, are used to predict responses of new design combinations and to minimize the maximum chip temperature.     

Performance optimization of multidisciplinary mechanical systems subject to uncertainties

This paper presents a methodology to solve a new class of stochastic optimization problems for multidisciplinary systems (multidisciplinary stochastic optimization or MSO) wherein the objective is to maximize system mechanical performance (e.g. aerodynamic efficiency) while satisfying reliability-based constraints (e.g. structural safety). Multidisciplinary problems require a different solution approach than those solved in earlier research in reliability-based structural optimization (single discipline) wherein the goal is usually to minimize weight (or cost) for a structural configuration subject to a limiting probability of failure or to minimize probability of failure subject to a limiting weight (or cost). For the problems solved herein, the objective is to maximize performance over the range of operating conditions, while satisfying constraints that ensure safe and reliable operation. Because the objective is performance based and because the constraints are reliability based, the random variables used in the objective must model variability in operating conditions, while the random variables used in the constraints must model uncertainty in extreme values (to ensure safety). Thus, the problem must be formulated to treat these two different types of variables at the same time, including the case when the same physical quantity (e.g. a particular load) appears in both the objective function and the constraints. In addition, the problem must be formulated to treat multiple load cases, which can again require modeling the same physical quantity with different random variables. Deterministic multidisciplinary optimization (MDO) problems have advanced to the stage where they are now commonly formulated with multiple load cases and multiple disciplines governing the objective and constraints. This advancement has enabled MDO to solve more realistic problems of much more practical interest. The formulation used herein solves stochastic optimization problems that are posed in this same way, enabling similar practical benefits but, in addition, producing optimum designs that are more robust than the deterministic optimum designs (since uncertainties are accounted for during the optimization process). The methodology has been implemented in the form of a baseline MSO shell that executes on both a massively parallel computer and a network of workstations. The MSO shell is demonstrated herein by a stochastic shape optimization of an axial compressor blade involving fully coupled aero-structural analysis.     

基于细菌觅食和蚁群算法的工艺路线优化

针对工艺路线规划中满足多重约束的最优方案选择问题,提出一种细菌觅食和蚁群优化（bacteria foraging ant colony optimization,BFACO）算法。首先,将工艺路线规划转化为对加工元顺序的优化问题,构造满足多种工艺准则的加工元拓扑优先顺序图,并构建了在缩短加工周期、提高加工质量和降低加工成本目标下的最低加工资源更换成本的目标函数;其次,设计加工元序列与加工资源两个搜索阶段的蚁群搜索,拓扑优先顺序图可弥补加工元序列搜索阶段信息素匮乏的缺点,而在加工资源搜索阶段引入细菌觅食优化算法的复制与趋向操作,可使加工元在多个可选加工资源的情况下获得加工资源更换成本最低的加工序列;最后,基于细菌觅食与蚁群算法的融合优化,完成多个加工元序列的信息素积累并输出最优解,解决蚁群算法局部收敛且计算速度慢的问题。将BFACO算法应用于实例并与其他优化算法的优化结果进行对比,结果显示BFACO算法在工艺路线优化方面较其他优化算法具有较高的计算效率,验证了BFACO算法的可行性与有效性。研究表明,BFACO算法可有效应用于同时考虑工艺约束与加工资源更换成本的工艺规划,为实际生产提供高效且灵活的工艺路线的优化选择。