2012年我国石油化工行业进展及展望

综述了我国石化行业2012年在高油价和经济减速条件下取得的一系列进展。一是石化产业全年运行缓中趋稳,产值、产量和效益均有增长,但增幅同比下落。二是建设世界一流石化产业,原油加工量和乙烯产量继续保持世界第二,化学品生产总量可与美国比伯仲,合成树脂生产位列前茅,合成橡胶生产位列世界之首。三是产业转型与升级,现代煤化工顺利融入石油化工生产体系,石化介入生物质化工成功试产生物航空煤油,石化产品高端化升级取得新进展。四是石化技术进步,采用自主产权的技术建成一批工业化装置,包括柴油液相循环加氢装置、生产欧Ⅴ汽油的新一代S-Zorb装置、80万吨/年大乙烯装置、S-MTO装置、FCC再生烟气SCR脱硝装置等;自主开发的超重油轻质化技术、百万吨级芳烃联合装置技术、合成气制乙二醇成套技术已具备工业化条件,沸腾床重质渣油加氢等技术进入工业验证阶段,一批专用化学品和化工新材料在内的石化产品差异化生产技术正在加紧攻关。文章总结了高油价和低增速条件下中国特色石化运行模式所起的作用,包括炼油高油价下坚持降本增效,资源分配“保、压”得当;化工把控在役石化产能与调节产品结构,积极实施差异化战略来应对市场需求不振和同质化竞争。同时,也对2012年存在的问题进行了思考。分析了2013年情况,进入2013年,随着世界经济形势逐步向好,国际油价走势受美国经济数据提振保持高位振荡,我国宏观经济预计继续保持稳健发展,国内化工市场需求总体回暖,我国炼油产业预计仍处于景气周期。对2013年我国石化行业总体运行提出了趋稳向好的较乐观展望,同时预期在加快汽柴油质量升级、石化产品高端化升级、推进化工原料的煤炭替代、创建“煤油化”一体化新模式、加速向能源化工产业转型和建设世界一流石化建设等方面取得实质性的新进展。     

Surfactant raw material outlook for the eighties

Over the next decade, the surfactant industry should be able to secure an adequate supply of the raw materials necessary to provide its need for surfactant intermediates. Since the U.S. will continue to rely on foreign imports for marginal crude supplies, periodic disruptions in raw material supply are likely to occur. World crude prices are expected to rise more rapidly than the general U.S. inflation rate and surfactant feedstocks are expected to track world crude prices as a whole. Over the next few years, ethylene prices should increase faster than other surfactant feedstocks. This should occur as a result of natural gas price decontrol and improved ethylene profit margins. Otherwise, in the long term, the major driving force for all three synthetic feedstocks should be the price of world crude. Of course, short term perturbations, e.g., plant shutdowns and over-supply situations, may cause one feedstock or the other to increase at somewhat higher or somewhat lower rates for short periods of time. Natural oils may represent an interesting alternative to crude-oil-based alcohols. Longer term, average prices for natural oils should increase at lower rates than world crude oil. However, natural oil prices have historically been much more cyclic than crude prices and “natural” alcohol producers run the risk of being noncompetitive during tight supply/demand periods.     

2040年世界能源展望--埃克森美孚2016版预测报告简介

埃克森美孚公司2016年最新发布的《2040年世界能源展望》认为：2014–2040年（预测期）全球能源需求将增长26%,天然气将占增量的40%,2040年石油仍是第一大能源。北美洲在2020年前后将成为石油净出口地区。预测期内,全球运输部门的能源需求增长30%,主要来自非OECD国家;到2040年,电动车占全年新车销售比重将升至40%;车辆平均燃油消耗将从2014年的每百公里约9.41 L减少到2040年的约5.23 L。全球和中国的碳排放量预计在2030年前后达到峰值。     

The Use of Clays for the Hydrotreatment of Heavy Crude Oils

The increasing supply of heavy crude oils is a matter of serious concern for the petroleum industry. In order to satisfy the changing pattern of product demand, significant investments in refining conversion processes will be necessary to profitably utilize these heavy crude oils. Although the most efficient and economical solution to this problem will depend to a large extent on individual country and company situations, the most promising technologies will likely involve the conversion of vacuum bottom residual oils, asphalt from deasphalting processes, and superheavy crude oils into useful light and middle distillate products.     

市场化转型中的成品油市场现状及2018年展望

2017年,在经济回暖拉动下,成品油消费有所改善,尤其是柴油消费增速由负转正.国内炼油能力增长主要来自于央企.炼油产业参与主体更为多元,市场活力不断增强,地方炼厂在进口原油使用权放开的政策利好下生产积极性持续高涨.油价回升、环保加严,天然气汽车、新能源汽车、煤制油和燃料乙醇等石油替代品发展均明显加快.同时,成品油市场化步伐稳步推进.展望2018年,宏观经济下行压力较大,加之汽车行业新政变化,不利于成品油市场需求增长.产能的增长将主要来自于大型地方炼厂.在国家深化成品油市场化改革的背景下,地方石油公司成立,原油政策保持宽松,成品油市场竞争加剧.     

国际油价2019年回顾及2020年展望

2019年中美贸易磋商进程曲折反复、全球宏观经济增长动能减弱,导致石油市场需求增速放缓、供应相对过剩,国际油价均值同比下跌。预计2020年石油需求增速略低于历史平均水平,非OPEC供应维持中高速增长,维也纳联盟坚持贯彻减产协议,使全球油市在面对潜在供应过剩压力和IMO船用燃料油新规冲击的同时,开启结构性再平衡之路。在中美贸易谈判继续艰难推进、全球经济稳中趋弱、美伊冲突未导致大规模石油供应中断的情况下,预计2020年布伦特均价较大概率为60~70美元/桶。     

我国原油贸易及其市场地位

2000—2004年我国石油需求年均增长率达8.1%,我国原油进口年均增长率达14.5%。2004年我国石油需求量比2003年增幅16.9%;原油进口量达1.23亿t,比上年增长34.7%,约占世界原油进口总量的5.8%。我国在世界原油贸易中的份额和地位也不断提高。未来我国面临的原油资源竞争将会日益加剧,加快建立我国石油安全供应风险管理体制意义将十分巨大。     

2013年我国石油化工行业进展回顾与展望

综述了我国石化行业2013年在高油价和经济减速条件下取得的一系列进展。一是全年石化行业运行态势平稳向好,石化产业主营业务收入实现两位数增加,炼油平稳,乙烯向好,经济效益明显改善,石化产业实现利润大幅增加。二是2013年石化生产取得良好业绩,原油加工量达到4.786亿吨,同比增加3.3%;生产成品油2.96亿吨,同比增长4.4%;乙烯产量1623万吨,增长8.5%,丙烯产量为1460万吨,年均增速11%;生产合成树脂5837万吨,增长11%;生产合成橡胶409万吨,增长6.3%,生产合成纤维3739万吨,同比增长7.1%;生产化肥7154万吨,同比增长4.9%。三是建设世界一流石化产业取得新进展,原油加工能力保持世界第二,乙烯生产保持世界第二,芳烃产业链位列世界一流,三大合成材料生产位列前茅,大型炼油乙烯一体化装置首次实现“四年一修”。四是产业转型与产品升级取得新进展,现代煤化工顺利融入石油化工生产体系,国产生物航空煤油获得适航通行证。五是石化技术进步取得新进展,200万吨/年高能效（SHEER）加氢成套技术开发获得成功,200 万吨/年液相循环加氢装置生产出总硫含量为3mg/kg的精制柴油,第二代S-Zorb技术开发成功,将建成15套装置,首次采用拥有我国全部自主知识产权的乙烯技术建成的武汉石化80万吨/年大乙烯装置顺利投产,乙烯关键装备丙烯制冷压缩机组和CBL-R裂解炉双双取得突破,开发自主产权60万吨/年大型联合芳烃技术取得成功并在海南建成装置,节能二代苯乙烯技术开发成功,首套12万吨/年装置在巴陵石化运行,茂金属气相法耐热聚乙烯（PE-RT）管材料实现了工业生产并通过产品认证,我国首套3万吨/年溴化丁基橡胶生产装置在中国石化北京燕山分公司建成,甲醇制芳烃流化床技术万吨级工业试验取得成功。六是高油价下石化产业降本增效模式取得新进展,我国石化产业采取降本增效措施,改进原油资源获取机制初见成效,调整装置结构,提高加工较低成本原油的能力,开展炼油全流程优化工程,提高渣油使用价值,渣油加工按效益分配,加大化工轻油的非油替代力度,降低乙烯原料成本。同时,也对2013年存在的问题进行了思考,包括我国炼油产业显现产能过剩,需要爱护和坚持行之有效的中国特色石化运行模式,消除尾气排放、治理雾霾天气仍存软肋,页岩气重振美国石化产业对我国的启示以及PX 焦虑事件折射出石化科普的重要及企业的责任。 文章还分析了进入2014年,世界经济形势逐步缓慢向好,国际油价走势受美国经济数据提振保持高位振荡,我国经济将持续稳步发展,预计国内生产总值增速与上年持平或略低,产业结构不断调整,城市化进程进一步加快,这些宏观因素为包括成品油、乙烯、丙烯、芳烃、合成树脂、合成橡胶在内的石化产品提供广阔的发展空间,同时也催促石化产业加快向能源化工的转型进程。我国石化产业在2014年的实际运行中,将依托这些重要基础,遵循着重本质安全、重视节能减排、推行绿色低碳、加快结构调整的理念;继续创新运用行之有效的高油价下石化产业降本增效模式和经验,持续攻坚克难,克服产能过剩,决胜市场竞争,在不断提高经济效益方面取得新业绩;在发挥企业技术创新主体作用、产品结构向基础加高端转变方面取得新进展;在践行可持续发展、加快原料结构向能源化工转变方面取得新突破。总之,石化产业2014年呈更加积极复苏态势几成定局,石化产业必将继续为我国经济社会发展做出支柱产业应有的贡献。     

Möglichkeiten der Verwendung von Pflanzenöl als Kraftstoff für Dieselmotoren

Potential of Vegetable Oil as a Fuel for Diesel Engines Vegetable oils seem, not only under agricultural aspects, to be an alternative fuel because of their properties similar to Diesel fuel. For such renewable resources there exists principally an almost closed and also fast CO₂-cycle. For the time being rape oil methyl ester which will not be competitive from the economical point of view in a medium term range is predominantly used in small scale projects. The less expensive raw rape oil can only be used in special Diesel engines which was the result of special investigations carried out on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology. There are only small advantages in the emission of air pollutants of vegetable oil engines at the place of operation. Because of the limited availability of vegetable oils there is only a limited potential for the substitution of Diesel fuel. Under long term aspects such bio fuels can contribute, however, to a substitution of the limited crude oil resources.     

当前原油供需两弱格局下油价走势预判及我国应对策略

自2016年OPEC+首次承诺集体减产以来,全球原油市场的扰动因素更多地来自于供给端,各产油国的产能管理和协调措施成为影响油价走势的主要决定因素,在一定程度上缓冲了全球经济复苏缓慢背景下能源需求增长疲软对油市的冲击,对国际原油价格走势起到"稳定器"的作用。2020年3月OPEC+联盟减产协议破裂以及沙特增产降价开启了全球原油供给端增产战和价格战,4月中旬OPEC+虽勉强达成减产协议,但减产力度远不及预期,协议的后续执行仍存变数,这也意味着主要产油国产能管理近乎失效。而此次全球范围内新冠疫情扩散背景下原油市场面临的不仅是供给端"稳定器"失效,需求端的萎缩以及未来进一步的利空预期也带来巨大的下行压力,国际原油市场未来总体将呈现供需两弱格局,加之当前中东地缘政治乱局,未来原油价格将加快进入剧烈震荡的下行区间。     

我国炼油工业“十三五”回顾与“十四五”发展趋势展望

“十三五”期间,全球炼油工业整体处于金融危机以来较好水平。国内炼油工业上下游全产业链市场化改革、转型发展取得显著成就。综合生产力水平提升,多元供应格局完成,油品质量升级完成。宏观及产业环境变化导致成品油消费增速拐点到来,市场化竞争加速零售经营业态升级。疫情催化下,“十四五”全球炼油工业或将面临新世纪以来最艰难时期。全球石油需求恢复至少需要2年以上时间,炼油过剩产能维持在500万桶/日以上,炼油业步入整合时代。国内炼油业全产业链市场化改革进入深水期,基本形成上游资源多主体多渠道供应、中间统一管网高效集输、下游销售市场充分竞争的油气市场体系。炼油工业进入提质增效、转型升级和高质量发展阶段。成品油需求达峰,炼油结构加快减油增化调整。     

Conjugated linoleic acids and conjugated vegetable oils: From nutraceutical to bio‐polymer

Recent interest from academia, nutritionists, the chemical as well as the feed and food industry in conjugated linoleic acids (CLAs) and conjugated vegetable oils has grown spectacularly. CLA isomers, either in their natural or synthetic forms, have not only been associated with diverse health and physiological effects, but they are also interesting renewable compounds in the production of industrial products such as paints, glues, and polymers, due to their very reactive conjugated double bond system. Due to the depletion of the world crude oil reserves and the increasing trend to use renewable feedstock in the chemical industry, it is to be expected that the use of conjugated fatty acids and oils will continue to grow in the near future. As high amounts of CLAs and conjugated vegetable oils will be needed and natural resources are limited, efficient production processes are urgently needed. An efficient process for the production of CLA from methyl linoleate, using the Wilkinson catalyst, is described by Behr et al. in this issue of European Journal of Lipid Science and Technology.     

聚烯烃树脂的生产状况与需求预测

原油加工是石油和化工行业的龙头和核心,过去、现在与未来都会是国家工业发展的重点。因其直接形成了炼油、初级形态通用合成树脂、塑料加工、建材、农膜等生产领域一条密切关联、多层次、跨行业的聚烯烃产业链,故而我国炼油工业的结构调整、原料生产、加工水平和效率的提升,还有全球原油价格的变化、国内陆续新、改、扩建若干个世界级聚烯烃生产装置所带来的供给总量的剧增,以及下游巨大市场需求的拉动,都将直接影响整个产业链的供求、项目投资和进出口走势。     

Iodine values of acidulated coconut oil soapstock

Summary Analyses and comparisons of a number of representative samples have shown that acidulated coconut oil soapstock may have an iodine value as much as 100% greater than that of the corresponding refined oil without any contamination being involved. Exactly what the spread between any given soapstock and oil will be apparently depends on the free fatty acid content of the original crude oil and the relative efficiency of the refining process. It was found that, for coconut soapstocks produced by standard laboratory refining tests, the relation between free fatty acid content and iodine value spread can be represented by the formula I.V. Spread=9.5–759 FFA. The efficiency of the refining process affects results insofar as it reduces the entrainment of neutral oil. Removing all of the neutral oil from four laboratory-produced soapstocks prior to acidulation raised the iodine value approximately two units in all cases. The practical significance of these results is obvious. A refiner processing high grade crude coconut oil of 9.5, iodine value by a highly efficient refining procedure cannot be expected to produce an acidulated soapstock of less than about 18.0 in iodine value. With higher free fatty acid crude oil and less efficient refining procedures lower iodine values are possible, but since soapstock is of minor economic value compared to refined oil, the trend will always be toward better grade crude oils and more efficient refining processes.     

全球催化剂工业动向

介绍了在全球范围内催化剂工业的现状,包括市场需求及经营形势。由于美国及其他国家环保法规日趋严格迫使炼油工业采用清洁燃料催化剂,导致炼油催化剂需求量上升,聚烯烃催化剂工业获得较大发展,炼油催化剂技术推陈出新。特种化学品产品催化剂和精细化工领域的催化剂工业将面临挑战。     

2015年中国石油和化工行业经济运行回顾与2016年展望

2015年我国经济下行压力加大,石油和化工行业基本实现了行业经济的平稳运行。全行业主营业务收入13.14万亿元,同比下降6.1%;利润总额6484.9亿元,同比下降18.2%。2015年行业生产增长结构优化,企业转型升级和产品结构调整加快,能源效率继续提高,行业整体效益回升企稳。尽管如此,当前行业经济运行仍不稳定,下行压力依然很大,部分行业产能过剩,企业成本高位运行,税负加重,各行业投资疲软等。2016年,随着原油等价格触底企稳和全球经济温和复苏,预计石油和化工市场总体仍将稳中趋升。     

Tallöl-Fraktionierung als Beispiel der Optimierung konventioneller Füllkörperkolonnen

Fractionation of Tall Oil as an Example of Optimization of Conventional Packed Columns The present communication records a simple calculation for optimization of packed columns in an example of layout of columns for fractional distillation of crude tall oil into the main products, i.e. fatty acids and resin acids. This calculation requires, apart from knowledge on the temperatures stability of the material, only the HETP value, which is the height of chosen packing material equivalent to one theoretical plate. An arrangement of three columns is necessary for complete separation of crude tall oil in continuous manner. In the example shown, calculation of the first column for a capacity of 20 000 t per year is given.     

Zu den Veränderungen von Rapsöl und Leinöl während der Verarbeitung

Changes of rapeseed and linseed oil during processing During processing of crude oil in a large oil mill, three samples each of rapeseed and linseed were investigated at each processing stage, i.e. press oil, solvent-extracted oil, mixed oil, and degummed/caustic refined oil. In the case of rapeseed also bleached and desodorized oils (230°C; 3.0 mbar for 2 h) were investigated. Rapeseed and linseed oil showing the typical major fatty acids contained less than 1% trans-isomeric fatty acids (trans fatty acids = TFA). Linseed oil had a similar TFA-concentration as rapeseed oil, and the concentrations did not change during the processing stages up to degummed/caustic refined oil, and were also unchanged in the bleached rapeseed oil. Desodorization of rapeseed oil, however, trebled the TFA concentration to 0.58%. The detected tocopherol patterns were typical of rapeseed and linseed oils. There was no difference between mixed oil and degummed/caustic refined oil in the total concentration of tocopherols. Neither had bleaching any effect. Rapeseed oil desodorization diminished total tocopherol concentration by 12% from 740 mg/kg to 650 mg/kg. Due to degumming/caustic refining the phosphorus concentration of both oils decreased to less than a tenth compared to mixed oil. Other elements determined in degummed/caustic refined rapeseed oil were not detectable (manganese < 0.02 mg/kg, iron < 0.4 mg/kg, copper < 0.02 mg/kg, lead < 10 μg/kg) or only as traces zink 0.1 mg/kg, cadmium 2 μg/kg). In linseed oil, which initially showed a higher trace compounds concentration, a significant decrease was found by degumming/caustic refining. Iron could not be detected. There were traces of zinc, manganese, copper, lead, and cadmium. There was no difference between the acid values of rapeseed and linseed crude oil. Acid value decreased drastically already during the degumming/caustic refining stage. The crude linseed oils had a higher peroxide value, anisidine value and diene value than the corresponding crude rapeseed oils. With peroxide values of ≤ 0.1 mEq O₂/kg found in almost all investigated rapeseed oils, no effect of refining could be detected. The anisidine value showed an increase after bleaching. Desodorization trebled the diene value.     

我国石化产业现状及资源供求分析

阐述了我国石化产业现状和发展趋势，分析了石化产业资源的供求情况，如原油、天然气及煤炭供求现状及需求预测，介绍了石化技术的发展动态。