One-minute global irradiance probability density distributions conditioned to the optical air mass

Knowledge of the temporal variability of the solar irradiance is important to study solar energy systems involving thermal and photovoltaic processes. The differences between hourly and instantaneous values of the clearness index considerably affect the utilizability of photovoltaic systems. In this work, we analyzed the probability density distributions of one-minute values of global irradiance, conditioned to the optical air mass, considering those as an approximation to the instantaneous distributions. The study reveals that the bimodality that characterizes these distributions increases with optical air mass. We propose the use of a functional form based on Boltzmann's statistics in order to describe these distributions. This function can be used for the generation of synthetic radiation data. Expressing the distribution as a sum of two functions provides an appropriate modeling of the bimodality feature that can be associated with the existence of two levels of irradiation corresponding to two extreme atmospheric situations, cloudless and cloudy conditions.     

Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: Application to solar thermal power plants energy production planning

Due to strong increase of solar power generation, the predictions of incoming solar energy are acquiring more importance. Photovoltaic and solar thermal are the main sources of electricity generation from solar energy. In the case of solar thermal energy plants with storage energy system, its management and operation need reliable predictions of solar irradiance with the same temporal resolution as the temporal capacity of the back-up system. These plants can work like a conventional power plant and compete in the energy stock market avoiding intermittence in electricity production.This work presents a comparisons of statistical models based on time series applied to predict half daily values of global solar irradiance with a temporal horizon of 3 days. Half daily values consist of accumulated hourly global solar irradiance from solar raise to solar noon and from noon until dawn for each day. The dataset of ground solar radiation used belongs to stations of Spanish National Weather Service (AEMet). The models tested are autoregressive, neural networks and fuzzy logic models. Due to the fact that half daily solar irradiance time series is non-stationary, it has been necessary to transform it to two new stationary variables (clearness index and lost component) which are used as input of the predictive models. Improvement in terms of RMSD of the models essayed is compared against the model based on persistence. The validation process shows that all models essayed improve persistence. The best approach to forecast half daily values of solar irradiance is neural network models with lost component as input, except Lerida station where models based on clearness index have less uncertainty because this magnitude has a linear behaviour and it is easier to simulate by models.     

A new approach for predicting vertical global solar irradiance

Solar irradiance, particularly on vertical surfaces, plays a major role in determining the thermal and energy performance of a building. It is important to the design and analysis of both active solar systems and passive solar buildings. Many mathematical models are mainly developed to predict the sky-diffuse irradiance on inclined surfaces from the measured horizontal diffuse component. This paper presents an approach to estimate the vertical global irradiance based on direct beam and ground-reflected components which can be accurately determined. Hourly data recorded from January 1996 to December 1998 in Hong Kong were used for the model development. The performance of the proposed model and two well-known anisotropic inclined surface models (Muneer and Perez) was evaluated against data measured in 1999. Statistical analysis indicated that the proposed model gives reasonably good agreement with measured data for all vertical planes. Although the new model has been found less effective than the Perez model, its simplicity nature provides buildings designers a convenient and reliable alternative in the estimation of vertical solar irradiance.     

Fluctuations in instantaneous clearness index: Analysis and statistics

Solar radiation is characterized by short fluctuations introduced by passing clouds. An analysis of these fluctuations with regard to solar energy applications should focus on the instantaneous clearness index. Its probability distribution for a given mean clearness index is, as a first approximation, independent from the season and partly also from the site. This is verified for four annual datasets from three different sites.An analysis of fluctuations in solar radiation must focus on their amplitude, persistence, and frequency of occurrence rather than their location in time. The Fourier analysis cannot satisfactorily provide this information since time series of the instantaneous clearness index exhibit no periodicity. Instead, a localized spectral analysis based on wavelet bases rather than on periodic-ones has been applied. This analysis allows the decomposition of the fluctuating clearness index signal into a set of orthonormal subsignals. Each of them represents one specific scale of persistence of the fluctuation.The annual mean square values of all subsignals have been analysed, permitting the allocation of the signal’s power content to the different scales of persistence of a fluctuation. These annual mean values agree well for the different datasets, indicating the existence of statistically significant mean square values of the fluctuations as a function of their persistence.The analysis offers a valuable tool for the estimation of power flow fluctuations introduced by direct solar energy systems. With further elaboration it may be applied by power system operators for network planning in distribution grids with a high density of embedded generation.     

Diffuse solar radiation estimates from sunshine hours and clearness index for Karachi, Pakistan

Correlations for the estimation of monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation as a function of the sunshine hours and clearness index have been obtained from Karachi. Generally, two types of correlations are used: (a) diffuse radiation as a function of relative sunshine hours and extraterrestrial radiation, and (b) diffuse radiation as a function of global and extraterrestrial radiation. These correlations are mostly first- and second-order polynomials in the sunshine hours and clearness index, indicating the presence of the diffuse solar radiation component. The diffuse solar radiation shows a peak value during the monsoon months of July–August. The diffuse to global ratio is found to be 0.32 from the analysis, and the diffuse to extraterrestrial radiation ratio is nearly 0.19 throughout the year. Among the established relations, Iqbal and Stanhill overestimate the radiation value, while Liu and Jordan underestimate it.     

The sun’s total and spectral irradiance for solar energy applications and solar radiation models

Using the most recent composite time series of total solar irradiance spaceborne measurements, a solar constant value of 1366.1 W m⁻² is confirmed, and simple quadratic expressions are proposed to predict its daily value from the Zurich sunspot number, the MgII index, or the 10.7 cm radio flux index. Whenever these three indices are available on a daily basis (since 1978), it is possible to predict the sun’s irradiance within 0.1% on average, as accurately as current measurements.Based on this value of the solar constant, an improved approximation of the extraterrestrial solar spectrum from 0 to 1000 μm is proposed. It is obtained by dividing the spectrum into nine bands and selecting representative (and recent) spectra, as well as appropriate scaling coefficients for each band. Comparisons with frequently used spectra are discussed, confirming previous findings of the literature.This synthetic and composite spectrum is proposed at 0.5-nm intervals in the UV (280–400 nm), 1-nm intervals between 0–280 and 400–1705 nm, 5-nm intervals between 1705 and 4000 nm, and progressively larger intervals beyond 4 μm, for a total of 2460 wavelengths.     

Classification of daily solar radiation distributions using a mixture of Dirichlet distributions

In order to characterize the fluctuating nature of solar radiation in tropical climate, we classify daily distributions of the clearness index k_t by estimating a finite mixture of Dirichlet distributions without assuming any parametric hypothesis on these daily distributions. The method is applied to solar radiation measurements performed in Guadeloupe (16°2N, 61W) where important fluctuations can be observed even within a period of a few minutes. The results exhibit four distinct classes of distributions corresponding to different types of days. The sequence of such classes can be of interest for future weather prediction.     

Measurement of solar energy radiation in Abu Dhabi,UAE

This paper presents data on measurement of actual solar radiation in Abu Dhabi (24.43°N, 54.45°E). Global solar radiation and surface temperatures were measured and analyzed for one complete year. High resolution, real-time solar radiation and other meteorological data were collected and processed. Daily and monthly average solar radiation values were calculated from the one-minute average recorded values. The highest daily and monthly mean solar radiation values were 369 and 290 W/m², respectively. The highest one-minute average daily solar radiation was 1041 W/m². Yearly average daily energy input was 18.48 MJ/m²/day. Besides the global solar radiation, the daily and monthly average clearness indexes along with temperature variations are discussed. When possible, global solar energy radiation and some meteorological data are compared with corresponding data in other Arab state capitals. The data collected indicate that Abu Dhabi has a strong potential for solar energy capture.     

Global solar radiation measurements in Maceió, Brazil

This work focuses on the variability of the global solar radiation over the area of Maceió (9°40′S, 35°42′W, 127 m), located in Northeastern State of Alagoas, Brazil, during the1997–1999 period. Solar radiation variability was evaluated on 5 min, hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal scales. The results showed that the maximum values of the hourly global solar irradiation, , in the dry (September–February) and rainy (March–August) seasons were 3.18 and 2.50 MJ m⁻², respectively. The peaks of the hourly average, , for both periods were 2.79 MJ m⁻² and the daily average of the global solar irradiation, , was 19.89 MJ m⁻². The daily clearness index, , was found to be 0.53 (rainy period) and 0.59 (dry period). In clear, partially cloudy (the most frequent) and overcast days, the daily averages of global solar irradiation were 25.20, 19.00 and 8.00 MJ m⁻², respectively. On an annual scale the global solar irradiation changed from 15.00 MJ m⁻² by August to 24.04 MJ m⁻² by November.     

Global solar radiation estimation from measurements of visibility and air temperature extremes

Solar radiation is the main source of energy for the survival of life and its associated activities. It is important to know accurate solar radiation value in areas such as agricultural activities, solar energy systems, heating, and meteorology. In this study, we present a model for the estimation of solar radiation value with other meteorological parameters in cases where solar radiation cannot be measured or not available. This model is based on the relationship between solar radiation and measured air temperature and visibility extremes. As is known, the incident global solar radiation is attenuated by clouds, aerosols, ozone layer, water vapor, etc.. In the model, the attenuation of the solar radiation is expressed by dew point temperature, visibility, and the maximum and minimum air temperatures. Dew-point temperature refers to the effect of water vapor on solar radiation, air temperature extremes are used to signify cloudiness. Visibility also gives the effect on the attenuation of solar radiation by air pollutants and aerosols in the model. The model was applied to the data taken from meteorological stations in Turkey. Error analysis was performed and compared with the models in the literature and satisfactory results were obtained.

Abbreviations H: Daily total global solar radiation, units of MJ ? m^?2 ? day^?1; H₀: Extraterrestrial solar radiation, units of MJ ? m^?2 ? day^?1; H_m: Measured daily total global solar radiation, units of MJ ? m^?2 ? day^?1; H_c: Calculated daily total global solar radiation, units of MJ ? m^?2 ? day^?1; T_min: Daily minimum temperature, units of °C; T_max: Daily maximum temperature, units of °C; RH: T_dew: Relative humidity, units of %rh; Dew-point temperature, units of °C     

New equations for the calculation of the horizon brightness irradiance in the model of Perez

In this technical note authors propose new expressions to calculate the diffuse irradiance coming from the horizon brightness band on a tilted plane. As in the model of Perez, it is assumed that the radiance from this band is a constant. New expressions are more exact than previous ones as they eliminate some of the simplifications considered in the model of Perez. For small slope angles new expressions give irradiance values up to 32.98% higher than with the cited model. Notwithstanding, when slope angle increases obtained differences sharply decrease at the beginning and this decrease becomes practically linear from about 40° on.     

Calculation of the horizon brightness irradiance in the model of Perez using the unit-sphere method

The present technical note describes a computer tool for determining the horizon brightness diffuse irradiance on a tilted plane in the model of Perez. The applied procedure considers the configuration factor concept, which is calculated using the unit-sphere method. The results obtained with this procedure, which is more exact than the one followed by Perez, are compared with the ones obtained with Perez's proposal. It may be observed that for small angles of inclination differences are up to 36%, and that said differences decrease when the angle of inclination increases. For angles higher than 77.15°, differences become lower than 1%. It may be concluded that the described procedure, together with the computer tool for implementing it, is adequate for determining the horizon brightness irradiance on a tilted plane, once the radiance of this area of the sky dome is known.     

Recent improvements of the Meteorological Radiation Model for solar irradiance estimates under all-sky conditions

This study presents the recent improvements of the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM v6) against previous model versions for more accurate estimates of the solar radiation components, i.e. global, diffuse and direct. The MRM v6 follows a different approach for the simulation of the atmospheric conditions by selecting the most appropriate aerosol model (desert, urban, maritime or continental), and usage of look-up tables for the spectral variation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA). Furthermore, the MRM v6 uses hourly data of sunshine duration in order to achieve better simulations under cloudy skies. The results show that the MRM v6 improves the estimates of the measured global, diffuse and direct solar irradiances at Athens, Greece since the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) becomes 13.7%, 40.8% and 24.2%, respectively, against 18.0%, 44.5% and 34.1% for the MRM v5. A decrease is also found in Mean Bias Error (MBE), especially for the diffuse (from 26.2% to 19.5%) and direct (from −9.0% to −2.4%) irradiances, indicating that the inclusion of the aerosol properties in MRM v6 significantly improves the estimations. The MRM simulations are very satisfactory on monthly basis indicating that the model is suitable for solar energy applications.     

Analysis of experimental data on diffuse solar radiation in Athens,Greece, for building applications

Proper design and performance prediction of solar energy systems requires accurate information on the availability of solar radiation. The diffuse-to-total radiation correlation, originally developed by Liu and Jordan, has been extensively used as the technique and provided excellent results, although it was latitude dependent and not universally applicable. Thus, diffuse fraction correlations of this type have been developed by few other authors and for different location. This paper presents an analysis of hourly diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface. Hourly pyranometer data from Athens, Greece, are used to establish relationships between the diffuse fraction and the clearness index k _T for hourly and daily values. The results of the proposed equations are then compared with earlier equations. For the urban conditions of Athens the developed correlation fit to the empirical data.     

Evaluation of decomposition models of various complexity to estimate the direct solar irradiance over Belgium

Solar energy production is directly correlated to the amount of radiation received at a given location. Appropriate information on solar resources is therefore very important for designing and sizing solar energy systems. Concentrated solar power projects and photovoltaic tracking systems rely predominantly on direct normal irradiance (DNI). However, the availability of DNI measurements from surface observation stations has proven to be spatially too sparse to quantify solar resources at most potential sites. Satellite data can be used to calculate estimates of direct solar radiation where ground measurements do not exist. Performance of decomposition models of various complexity have been evaluated against one year of in situ observations recorded on the roof of the radiometric tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle, Brussels. Models were first evaluated on a hourly and sub-hourly basis using measurements of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) as input. Second, the best performing ground-based decomposition models were used to extract the direct component of the global radiation retrieved from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images. Results were then compared to direct beam estimations provided by satellite-based diffuse fraction models and evaluated against direct solar radiation data measured at Uccle. Our analysis indicates that valuable DNI estimation can be derived from MSG images over Belgium regardless of the satellite retrieved GHI accuracy. Moreover, the DNI retrieval from MSG data can be implemented on an operational basis.     

Systematic error in the measurement of very high solar irradiance

The measurement of very high solar irradiance is required in an increasingly wide variety of technical applications. There is really only one commercial supplier of heat flux sensors that can be used for this purpose. These gages are calibrated using a black body as the radiant source. A systematic error has been detected when these heat flux sensors are later used to measure the irradiance from concentrated solar radiation; in this case, the calibration constants obtained for these gages in the laboratory must be systematically corrected.     

Estimation of horizontal diffuse solar radiation with measured daily data in China

Three most widely used diffuse radiation models are calibrated using the daily data between January 1 1994 and December 31 1998 from 16 stations all over China. The second-degree polynomial relationship between R_D/R_G and n/N (Iqbal model) is suitable for diffuse radiation estimation in China. The averaged correlation coefficient R² is 0.84 and the maximum value is 0.93 at the 16 stations, and the Iqbal model works better in the eastern part of China than in the west. The A.A. El-Sebaii model could not be used to estimate diffused radiation accurately in China, with an averaged R²=0.47. The Liu and Jordan model could also be used for diffuse radiation estimation in China, and the averaged value of R² and parameter X₀ is 0.81 and 0.233, respectively. There is an evident linear relationship among the parameters X₀, a and b of the Liu and Jordan model.     

A simple approach to the synthetic generation of solar irradiance time series with high temporal resolution

Modeling the performance of some concentrating solar systems for thermal power plants may require high temporal resolution irradiance as input, in order to account for the impact of the cloud transient effects. This work proposes a simple method of generating synthetic irradiance of 10-min intervals from the hourly mean values. Boundary conditions are imposed to preserve the expected behavior under clear sky situations. The procedure consists basically on adding a random fluctuation, which characteristic amplitude depends on the sky conditions, to the hourly interpolated values. The assessment of the method with ground data have shown to main aspects to remark: daily and monthly means from the synthetic data are below 5% of root mean squared deviation compared to the original time series; despite the noticeable uncertainty in the 10-min synthetic irradiance values, the dynamic behavior of the fluctuations is comparable to the original data.     

Analysing consequence of solar irradiance on amorphous silicon solar cell in variable underwater environments

Harvesting underwater Solar energy using photovoltaic (PV) technology leads to an innovative approach to utilize it in monitoring various underwater sensors, devices, or other autonomous systems using modern-day power electronics. Another huge advantage of placing PV cells underwater comes from the fact that the water itself can provide cooling and cleaning for the cells. Such advantages come with many challenges and constraints due to the underwater spectral change and decrease in Solar radiation with an increase in water depth. In this work, an experimental set-up has been realized to create an underwater environment and further characterized in the indoor environment using the Solar simulator. Moreover, the transfer of Solar radiation through water and the performance of amorphous silicon Solar cell underwater up to 0.2 m has been analysed in changing underwater environments. This investigation shows a better understanding of solar radiation underwater and the amorphous silicon solar cell underwater at shallow depths with considering the water depth up to 0.2 m, salinity 3.5%, total dissolved salts, and other impurities affecting the solar radiation and the performance of amorphous silicon Solar cell in underwater conditions. In addition to that, the maximum power output P_max of amorphous silicon Solar cell is 0.0367 W at 0.2 m in the case of DI water. In contrast, in real seawater and artificial seawater with 3.5% salinity, it shows 0.0337 W and 0.0327 W, respectively.     

Global, direct and diffuse solar irradiance in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The regression coefficient of the well-known Angstrom correlation are determined for Riyadh city (the capital of Saudi Arabia) longitude 46° 14′E 24°55′N The relationship of the daily and monthly variation of the fraction of the diffuse solar irradiation to extrateresstrial and the clearness index are obtained. The variation of the values of the average daily global solar radiation against the month of the year is reported. The value of K_n defined as the ratio of direct normal Insolation, H_bn measured in Riyadh to direct normal solar extraterrestrial radiation with the K_T and K_d were obtained. The daily diffused ratio and the daily clearness index are shown as a function of the month of the year.