成品油再添地板价——专访国家发展和改革委员会价格监测中心高级经济师、经济学博士刘满平

正"地板价"的设定,将使国内成品油定价机制再次处于形同虚设的状态。2016年1月13日,国家发改委宣布执行新成品油定价机制,首次设立国际原油"地板价",即当国际原油价格低于每桶40美元(含)时,按原油价格每桶40美元、正常加工利润率计算成品油价格,国内成品油价格不再下调。     

成品油再添地板价——专访国家发展和改革委员会价格监测中心高级经济师、经济学博士刘满平

2016年1月13日,国家发改委宣布执行新成品油定价机制,首次设立国际原油“地板价”,即当国际原油价格低于每桶40美元（含）时,按原油价格每桶40美元、正常加工利润率计算成品油价格,同内成品油价格不再下调。     

世界银行上调明年原油价格预期 能源价格或上涨25%

正世界银行2016年10月20日发布的最新一期《大宗商品市场前景》季度报告显示,考虑到石油输出国组织(欧佩克)达成减产协议,2017年国际原油价格有望回升至平均每桶55美元,高于该机构7月份预测的平均每桶53美元。报告预计,2016年国际原油平均价格为每桶43美元,与7月份的预测持平。     

俄减与不减产之间

过去的一年,国际原油价格大玩一把"过山车"游戏,从每桶147美元高位跌至40美元以下.从业内分析人士和媒体的分析判断,要想扭转油价继续下滑的局面,在目前全球经济走势疲软的局势下,要想力求原油价格企稳,似乎只有寻求产油大国在限制原油生产上做文章.     

经济数据影响油价石油金融属性增强

据《中国经济网》分析报道：近期国际油价高位震荡,纽约商品交易所原油价格曾一度攀升至每桶75美元,又迅速下跌到每桶70美元以下。截至9月1日当天收盘,纽约商品交易所10月份交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1．91美元,收于每桶68．05美元。     

中石化巨亏考验成品油定价机制

饱受高油价之苦的人们终于看到了油价下调的些许希望，这对国内宏观经济调控而言，也显然是一大利好。今年6月，顶着CPI高企带来的通胀压力，国内汽油、柴油价格每吨分别上调了1000元，这是国内成品油最近的一次调价，当时国际原油价格位于每桶136美元的高位。从136美元至90美元左右，三个月内国际油价下跌了约1／3。在此情况下，下调国内成品油价格理由充分。     

专家预测今年上半年石化行业盈利稳定

据业内专家预测,今年上半年国内石化行业将处于比较稳定的盈利状态。 2003年,整个石化行业面临的局势错综复杂。国际原油市场随着局势的变化预计将出现剧烈的波动。2002年底,国际原油市场期货价格一度突破每桶30美元,目前仍然维持在28美元附     

2012年国际原油价格走势分析及2013年预测

回顾了2012年国际原油价格走势,分析了国际原油价格的主要影响因素,对2013年国际原油价格走势进行了预测。2012年,国际原油价格受世界经济低迷、地缘政治等因素影响,全年高位大幅震荡。2013年,基于国际原油供给宽松及库存相对稳定,将抑制原油价格大幅上升。预计2013年WTI原油价格为85~105美元/桶,布伦特原油价格为105~120美元/桶。     

2007年国际原油价格下限为50-55美元

2007年初以来，国际原油价格大幅下跌。目前纽约市场原油期货价格已经跌至每桶53美元，那么，今年原油市场还会维持牛市吗？ 2006年均价66美元 回顾2006年，2006年国际市场原油价格基本运行于每桶60-80美元区间内，年均价超过66美元，比2005年均价高出了近10美元。     

油价走势要看经济

10月13日,NYMEX 11月原油期货收高1.34美元,报每桶83.01美元,上涨1.64%.ICE11月布兰特原油期货上涨1.14美元,报每桶84.64美元.针对近期国际原油价格的波动,<国际金融报>认为"油价走势要看经济",并进一步分析--     

敏感价格区间内中间基减压蜡油加工方案对比

在50~100 USD/bbl(1 bbl≈0.133 t,以布伦特原油为基准)的国际原油价格下,对中间基沙特轻质原油 沙特重质原油(沙轻-沙重)的混合原油减压蜡油的不同加工方案进行了模拟研究,考察了流化催化裂化(FCC)、催化裂解(TMP)、催化柴油加氢-催化裂解(加氢 催化裂解,HTMP)和加氢裂化(HCR)对CO2排放、柴/汽比、基本化工原料和高价值产品收率等技术指标的影响,并进行了经济效益对比分析。结果表明：当原油价格处于中低价位(＜80 USD/bbl)时,采用产物分布中丙烯和高辛烷值汽油的收率之和高达60%的加氢-催化裂解方案可以降低柴/汽比,实现最短的资金回收周期;对于炼化一体化项目,采用加氢裂化方案可以获得最高的基本化工原料和高价值产品收率,当原油价格在中高价格(＞80 USD/bbl)范围内,采用HCR方案可以提高装置的经济效益和抗油价波动能力。     

Nymex entertains; Iraq, Nigeria, Kenya and Gaza disappoint

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
After a series of false starts when WTI traded above $100/bbl but failed to remain there ( see 'The Month in Brief', February 2007 ), front-month WTI futures settled above $100 for the first time ever, on 19th February, at a price of $100.01/bbl. The new record was prompted by a continuing fall in the value of the US dollar and rising tensions in Nigeria ( see below). Other records followed. The following day, prompt WTI futures reached $101.32 in day-trading before easing by the close.     

Price records, violence and dollar weakness (the usual mix)

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices went to new record levels in mid-March as traders contemplated the usual mix of violence in Iraq and Nigeria along with a falling US dollar, allied in this instance with a rise in the gold price above $1,000 an ounce and the paradoxical combination of fears of a world recession and high demand for oil products. The result was WTI front-month futures at an intra-day high of $111.80/bbl on 17th March, following a record $110.30/bbl in the cash market for prompt barrels set four days earlier. The 13th of March also saw Dated North Sea at a record $108.93/bbl, with prompt Brent some $2/bbl above this level. OPEC's price-basket also rose above $100/bbl for the first time. Many product prices also moved into record territory, including an intra-day high of $3.22/gall for Nymex spot heating oil on 14th March. The increases proved too much in the end and crude markets were back below $100/bbl by the end of the month.     

Markets panic, crude goes above $80, more trouble in Nigeria

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The capture of two Israeli soldiers by Iranian-backed Hizbollah guerrillas operating out of Lebanon flared-up into a full-scale military confrontation, with Israeli attacks on Lebanon's energy infrastructure ( see 'Looking Ahead'). Oil traders, fearing a wider Middle Eastern conflagration, bid-up the price of crude oil to new record levels. Prompt WTI futures hit $78.40/bbl on 14th July and three days later, prompt IPE Brent went to a record $78.18/bbl. The outer months rose even higher, with March, April and May WTI all above $80/bbl. Iran tried to dampen the markets by saying it would not use the oil weapon in support of its Hizbollah allies, and prices eventually eased. The seaborne trade in oil in the Eastern Mediterranean was disrupted by the closure of ports in Israel and Lebanon and a rise in insurance premiums for voyages to ports nearby. Outside the Levant, markets remained well-supplied with oil.     

More price records, more Nigerian troubles and privatization woes

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices rose steadily during July, establishing new records in some instances. Dated BFOE went above $78.90/bbl for the first time, whilst on 1st August, September WTI futures hit a record $78.77/bbl after US crude oil inventories recorded a sharp drop. North Sea markets were affected by the shut-down of a gas pipeline which threatened production of more than 100,000 bpd of NGL. OPEC declined to come to the market's rescue by producing more oil, claiming that the high price levels were caused by geopolitical factors and shortages of refined products rather than insufficient supplies of crude. Demand for oil was boosted in Asia by the shut-down of Japan's largest nuclear power station.     

不同原油价格下重油加工工艺路线的选择

在35～100 美元/bbl(1 bbl≈159 L)的国际油价下,针对阿曼原油、沙中原油、伊重原油、塔河原油的不同重油加工工艺路线(如浆态床渣油加氢、沸腾床渣油加氢、固定床渣油加氢、渣油焦化、溶剂脱沥青组合等)进行了经济效益分析,结果表明：在所研究的价格体系内,浆态床渣油加氢技术的经济效益均明显优于沸腾床渣油加氢技术;对于较劣质原油（如伊重原油）,在原油价格高于80 美元/bbl时,采用浆态床渣油加氢技术的经济效益超过常规原油固定床渣油加氢技术,随着浆态床渣油加氢技术的逐步完善与加工成本的降低,该技术在应对特别劣质的原料时具有很好的市场应用前景;在原油价格高于35 美元/bbl时溶剂脱沥青组合技术的经济效益优于渣油焦化技术,对于缺少氢源、延迟焦化装置原料性质较好的企业,当原油价格低于55 美元/bbl时,溶剂脱沥青组合技术有较好的市场应用前景;针对常规原油,当原油价格为45～80 美元/bbl时,推荐采用固定床渣油加氢技术。     

More price records, Iraq's exports rise and the US probes mogas prices

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
More oil price records were set as refiners worried about supply and inventory levels and other buyers took advantage of a falling US dollar to stock-up on oil and other commodities. October WTI briefly touched $84.10/bbl on 20th September. The US benchmark gained more than most crudes on fears of disruption to oil production in the US Gulf with the arrival of Hurricane Humberto. Some 1.3 mn bpd of production was temporarily shut-in as a precaution, though in the end there was no damage to offshore installations. North Sea crudes rose sharply the following week, pushing IPE Brent into record territory on 28th September, when the London benchmark rose above $81.00/bbl . The new records came despite a decision by OPEC on 11th September to increase its output by 500,000 bpd between August and November. The November target is 27.25 mn bpd, compared with February 2007's level of 25.80bpd. Iraq and Angola are outside the quota system, though Angola is set to join it in the near future.     

Bombs, hurricanes and more chaos in Iraq

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The oil market's roller-coaster continued into July with rising prices for US gasoline ahead of the 4th July holiday and a jump in prices for WTI on fears of hurricane damage to US Gulf production. August Nymex gasoline settled at a record $1.8056/gall on the 7th July as figures were released showing US demand at record weekly levels. On the same date, a series of fatal terrorist bomb attacks in London propelled IPE Brent to its highest-ever level of $60.70/bbl whilst, in Asia, Dubai traded at an all-time high of $55.80/bbl. The market's strength rapidly proved to be evanescent. Within hours of the London bombings, Brent had given up $5.00/bbl. Crude oil and gasoline prices eased in subsequent days and middle distillate lost some of its recent strength relative to gasoline as US stock figures showed a steady improvement in inventory levels. Volatility returned towards the end of the month on worries about gasoline shortages in both the US and Europe and more price records fell on 1st August on news of the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. WTI gained $1.00 on the day, settling at a record $61.57/bbl on Nymex, having been even higher during the day's trading, at $62.30/bbl. On the IPE in London, Brent rose to its highest-ever intra-day level of $60.98/bbl, before settling slightly lower. Some product prices also went into previously uncharted territory: notably jet fuel in North West Europe, which went above $600/t.     

利用ARIMA模型预测2007年油价走势

运用Box-Jenkins方法，以2003年初至2006年末的WTI原油月平均价格数据为基础，借助统计分析软件，构建了ARIMA预测模型。利用该预测模型对2007年度的WTI油价走势进行了分析和预测，预测结果以预测值、预测下限和上限的区间数据形式表现出来。预测结果显示，2007年的WTI油价将继续维持高位运行状态，运行区间为60—70美元，桶，价格运行表现出受季节影响较为明显的特征。     

Record prices

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications ( see 'Focus', March 2006 ) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state.