Economic impact of potential new industries in a four-state area

This note applies an input-output multiplier technique developed by Burford and Katz to analyzing the impact of potential high technology industries in a rural, four-state, thirteen county Midwestern region. By using the 1972 national input-output table coefficients and the Burford-Katz multiplier estimation formula, the estimated output impacts for fifty-one individual industries were calculated. The results indicate that within the four-state region, conventional industries would produce greater economic impacts than designated high-tech ones. This analysis could be performed rather easily for any other region in the U.S.     

Bestandsaufnahme Grundwasser nach der EU-Wasserrahmenrichtlinie im Koordinierungsraum Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster

Kurzfassung Die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie regelt den Schutz von Grund- und Oberflächengewässern und fordert eine nachhaltige Wassernutzung. Sie legt einen Zeitplan fest, um bis zum Jahr 2015 für alle Gewässer einen guten Zustand zu erreichen. Der erste Schritt ist eine Bestandsaufnahme der Gewässer. Für das Grundwasser besteht diese aus einer erstmaligen Beschreibung, einer weitergehenden Beschreibung und der Prüfung der Auswirkungen menschlicher Tätigkeit auf das Grundwasser. Die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie wird unabhängig von administrativen Grenzen innerhalb von hydrologischen Einzugsgebieten umgesetzt. Im deutschen Teil des Flusseinzugsgebietes der Elbe wurden 5 Koordinierungsräume gegründet. Der Koordinierungsraum Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster (MES) wird vorgestellt. Beispielhaft für die angewandten Methoden wird die Beurteilung diffuser Stoffeinträge in das Grundwasser bei der erstmaligen Beschreibung erläutert. Die Ergebnisse der Bestandsaufnahme Grundwasser im Koordinierungsraum MES werden präsentiert. Von 54 Grundwasserkörpern ist für 25 Körper aufgrund der Belastungen durch Punktquellen und diffuse Quellen, wegen des mengenmäßigen Zustands oder sonstiger anthropogener Einwirkungen die Zielerreichung nach der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie unklar/unwahrscheinlich.

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Status review groundwater for the Water Framework Directive in the coordination zone Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster

Abstract The Water Framework Directive (WFD) governs the protection of groundwater and surface water and promotes sustainable water use. It sets up a timetable to ensure that a good status of all waters will be achieved by 2015. The first step is a status review of the waters. For groundwater, this procedure is divided into an initial characterisation, a further characterisation and a review of the impacts of human activity on groundwater. The WFD is to be implemented independently of administrative boundaries within hydrological river basins. In the German part of the Elbe river basin district five coordination zones have been established. The Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster (MES) coordination zone is introduced. As an example for the applied methods, the assessment of the pressures of groundwater by diffuse sources (initial characterisation) will be explained. Then the outcome of the status review groundwater in the coordination zone MES will be presented: From the 54 individual bodies of groundwater 25 bodies will probably not achieve the environmental objectives of the WFD because of the pressures point sources, diffuse sources, quantitative status or other anthropogenic impacts.

     

Prefailure of Rock Soils under Dynamic Loading

The effect of loading and unloading regimes on the threshold of the appearance and number of cracks, which precede their avalanche propagation that accompanies complete failure of the soil, is established. It is demonstrated that the appearance of pioneer cracks contributes to an increase in ultimate deformations of the soil, corresponding to its failure and energy consumption of the deformation process.     

Experimental infrared-radiometric investigations of stress variations on a borehole face in a model of the soil mass

A procedure for, and results of experimental investigations performed to substantiate the effectiveness of the method of infrared (IR) radiation in diagnosing changes in the stress state of soils over time are presented. The construction of a large-scale bench is described for the alternating loading of a relatively large (of the order of 0.35 m³) volume of soil. Variations in the stress state over time in the near-face zone of a borehole, which is arranged in a model of the soil mass, are recorded using synchronous recordings of signals from an IR radiometer and load-cell strain gages. The elastic nature of stress variations on the face of the borehole in an unsaturated sandy soil is revealed during alternating-sign stress variations at infinity. It is indicated that data derived from noncontact IR measurements will make it possible to record accurately moments of jumpwise stress variations in the soil mass, and evaluate their intensity.Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 6, pp. 8–11, November–December, 2004.     

Effect of Loading Character on Analysis of Pile and Pile-Foundation Settlements

A mathematical model that makes it possible to model the behavior of pile/soil and pile-foundation/soil systems is presented. The model takes into account the viscoelastoplastic properties of the soil. Numerical analysis with use of this model has enabled us to examine characteristic features of the settlements of single piles and pile groups in soils possessing rheological properties. Settlement behavior over time is analyzed for various alternate schemes employed to increase the load on the foundation. Numerical and experimental results are compared.     

Dynamic forecasting of travel demand,residential location and land development

TheChicago Area Transportation/Land-Use Analysis System (CATLAS) is a large scale urban simulation model which synthesizes location rent analysis from urban economics with travel demand analysis from transportation planning. This paper describes the theoretical formulation, empirical estimation and policy application of CATLAS to the evaluation of CBD-oriented rapid transit projects in Chicago.     

The effect of aggregation on the output multipliers in input-output models

This paper compares the output multipliers of the 1967 National input output model (367 industries) with the multipliers of the aggregated version (81 industries). The results show that, generally, the set of industries in the full model that were aggregated together for the reduced model, display a wide range of output multiplier values. Therefore, the output multiplier of an aggregated industry may not be truly representative of any of the industries that were joined together. Finally we show how information for a particular firm or disaggregated industry can be incorporated in an aggregated input-output model to obtain a close estimate of the actual output multiplier for that firm or industry.     

The impact of Alaskan oil development on the Washington-Alaska trade

Washington State serves as a marketing and transportation center for Alaska trade. This study estimates, via a Location Quotient Input-Output model for Alaska, the impact Alaskan oil development will have on various economic sectors in both states. A From-To table and the existing Washington Input-Output table quantified the impacts on Washington.The Alaska oil development impact will result in a tripling of the Alaskan economy's output from 1972 to 1980. The largest impact in Alaska will be on the Service, Finance, Agriculture, Trade, and State and Local Government sectors. The impact on Washington will be felt in sectors of Transportation, Finance, Trade, and Agriculture resulting in an aggregate increase in the Washington economy of 10.6 percent if 50 percent of Alaska's import requirements are provided by Washington, and 5.3 percent if the import movement is 25 percent.Work was done under Regional project 0191, An Economic Analysis of present and potencial Trade Between Alaska Washington.     

Intermediate goods and the location of productive activity

This paper assesses the impact of the production and use of an intermediate good upon the location of productive activity in an economy consisting of two asymmetrically sized regions. The Nash equilibria of locations of an upstream and two downstream firms are completely defined in the the space of parameters transport cost and intensity of vertical linkages. While the relationship between transport cost and agglomeration is usually regarded as a decreasing one, the inclusion of an intermediate good can make it nonmonotonic.Received: September 2003/Accepted:01 March 2004The author wishes to thank the Editor of The Annals of Regional Science and three anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Regional labor force participation and the discouraged worker hypothesis: Some empirical evidence

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the economic determination of the regional labor supply. In explaining the regional level of labor force participation two models are compared: the unemployment model based on the discouraged worker hypothesis and the neoclassical model of labor force participation. It is shown that a migration model complements the neoclassical model and provides an alternative interpretation of the discouraged worker hypothesis, this reinterpretation provides an explanation for the failure of the unemployment model at the regional level when it is quite successful at the national level.     

Aquatische Kolloide I: Eine Übersichtsarbeit zur Definition, zu Systemen und zur Relevanz

Kurzfassung Kolloide sind Bestandteile aller aquatischen Systeme. Sie umfassen Feststoffe, deren Größe in zumindest einer Dimension zwischen 1 und 1.000 nm liegt. Sie können anorganischer (z. B. Tonteilchen, Karbonate oder Silikate) oder organischer (z. B. Ruß oder höhermolekulare organische Verbindungen wie Huminstoffe) Natur sein. Auch Bakterien, Viren, Sporen und Algen in diesem Größenbereich können zu den Kolloiden gerechnet werden (häufig als Bio-Kolloide bezeichnet). Kolloide können den Transport von (Schad-)stoffen im Untergrund und in Oberflächengewässern beeinflussen, insbesondere von Spurenelementen und hydrophoben organischen Verbindungen, oder zu unerwünschten Effekten wie Porenraumreduktion (Clogging) führen. Für die Hygiene des Trinkwassers ist das Verhalten von Bakterien, Viren und Sporen (den Bio-Kolloiden) von besonderer Bedeutung. Bisher ist das Verhalten von Kolloiden nur unzureichend verstanden. Dieser Artikel soll einen Beitrag zu dem Verständnis des physikalischen Verhaltens der Kolloide, deren Vorkommen in der aquatischen Umwelt sowie Relevanz in Form einer Übersichtsarbeit leisten.

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Aquatic Colloids: Definition and Relevance—a Review

Abstract Colloids are abundant in all natural aquatic environments. The size of colloids ranges between 1 and 1,000 nm, at least in one dimension. They can consist of inorganic material (e. g. clay, carbonates, silicates), organic material (e. g. soot or high-molecular-mass organic carbon), and bio-colloids (e. g. bacteria, viruses, spores, algae). Colloids may influence the transport and fate of contaminants, especially trace elements and hydrophobic organic substances. They may also cause a pore space reduction. In particular, drinking water quality can be adversely affected by the transport and relocation of bio-colloids; however, the behaviour of colloids is not fully understood. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the physical properties of colloids, their occurrence in natural aquatic systems, and their relevance.

     

Smoke Control in Hospitals

Full scale fire tests have been carried out in order to study the influence of different ventilating principles on the time point of fire detection and the smoke filling of a four-bed room. Using conventional mechanical ventilating systems as smoke exhaust systems the time difference left for evacuation of the fire room can be positively influenced. With the conventional ventilating system operating there is a significant difference between time points of detection of the ionization and optical smoke detectors, for both flaming and smoldering fire. Using the low momentum displacement ventilation this difference is reduced, resulting in possibilities for the ionization smoke detector to be optimized for both flaming and smoldering fires. Reference: Øystein Meland and Eimund Skåret, Smoke Control in Hospitals,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 1, February 1986, p. 33.     

The effect of social networks and concentrated poverty on black and hispanic youth unemployment

This paper examines empirically the effect of spatially concentrated poverty on minority youth employment and the role of access in youth labor markets. A model, in which information about jobs travels through social networks, links labor market outcomes and residential concentration of poverty. The empirical work uses U.S. Census employment data for the largest MSAs, in 1970 and 1980. The key findings are that, although concentration appears to have had no effect on black youth unemployment in 1970, the results for 1980 support concentration effects on unemployment for both black and hispanic youth. These effects are sizeable on average, and quite large in some cities.     

Improvement of methods of determining design values of soils' strength characteristics on the basis of statistical processing of them

This article considers the question of statistical processing of test data on single-plane shear strength for computing the design values of strength parameters and c. It is noted that the procedure of State All-Union Standard 20522-75 does not fully take into account the peculiarities of test data, and the recommendations for constructing confidence boundaries for and c are incorrect. A conclusion is drawn about the need to improve the State All-Union Standard in effect.Scientific Research Institute of Foundations and Underground Structures. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 6, pp. 7–10, November–December, 1993.     

Thirty years with spatial and intertemporal economics

In this paper the practical origin and development of the spatial and intertemporal price equilibrium (SIPE) models are chronologically followed around the personal life of the author. The fact that both the Marshallian (quantity) formulation and the Walrasian (price) formulation have been with the Takayama-Judge models in the primal-dual (purified-duality) relationship from the outset is pointed out. Historical use and abuse of large scale models in the past two decades, closely related to the SIPE models, are discussed. The author acknowledges recent developments of methodologies by younger generation researchers in this field and concludes that along with the recent development of high-powered computers and softwares, there will be a number of interesting and relevant SIPE model applications in the near future.This paper was first read at an international conference on Trade, Knowledge and the Network Economy, in Mallacoota, Victoria, Australia, and was revised to present for the workshop entitled Advances in Spatial Equilibrium Modeling held at the new Tinbergen Institute in Amsterdam, Netherlands on January 24–25, 1994.The author would like to express his gratitude to Professors Martin Beckmann, Peter Nijkamp, Dr. John R. Roy and an anonymous referee for their numerous comments and advice in revising this paper. Any remaining omissions and commissions are my own.This paper was presented in draft form at an International Workshop on Trade, Knowledge and the Network Economy, held in December 1992 in Mallacoota, Australia.     

Static probing of soils using the “equilibrated probe”

Experience gained with the probing of soils using an equilibrated-probe mechanism, which makes it possible to measure the soils resistance to penetration of the probe at low rates of displacements comparable to the rate of displacement of a pile and plate during static tests is outlined. Results are presented for field investigations and design characteristics obtained from probing data and derived from plate and pile tests. Basic trends in continued research are noted for expansion of practical application of the method proposed.Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 6, pp. 12–15, November–December, 2004.     

On growth and dispersal of populations

In his unpublished MA thesis of 1921, the young Hotelling invented an ingenious model of population growth and diffusion. The contribution remained widely unknown until Waldo Tobler and Alan Wilson edited it as an article in 1978. Not even then did it trigger off any outburst of contributions. Meanwhile, in 1951, Skellam invented exactly the same model for non-human populations. Unlike in economics, it was a great success in ecology. In a recent contribution Skellam is named Father of Ecological Diffusion and more than a thousand articles on the subject are listed. There were many attempts at solving the equation, but none were quite successful. The Hotelling and Skellam models both assumed a given saturation population that nature could support. In 1985 the present author suggested that an explicit production function be introduced in the Hotelling model, as man produces his own means of subsistence. Moreover it was proposed that diffusion be related to spatial differences in per capita productivity, rather than to those in population density. The present contribution is a rejoinder. It is shown that the stationary solutions to the original Hotelling model are periodic and dip into negative populations, whereas this is avoided by the modified model suggested. It can thus be used to show how agglomerative structures may evolve.     

Feasibility of Face Surcharging during Deep Settlement-Free Tunneling in Dense Urban Settings

A procedure is proposed for the computational modeling of the driving of a deep tunnel by a tunnel-boring machine (TBM) with an active surcharge on the face, which is realized in the GEO-MIGG program. Basic factors affecting the stress-strain state (SSS) of the soil bed-TBM- buildings and structures of the urban setting system are demonstrated in a trial example. The feasibility of using the proposed procedure is confirmed by comparing results of computational modeling of a practical example of tunneling for the third transportation beltway around Moscow in the area of Lefortovo using a TBM manufactured by the German firm Herrenknecht with data derived from field observations.     

Ways to increase the economical effectiveness of foundations for agricultural buildings with three-hinged bents

Conclusions 1. The failure of a sandy foundation bed under a rigid embedded reinforced-concrete foundation (h/b0.5) with a flat, rough lower surface is three-dimensional in nature when the loads are inclined at =20–40° to the vertical.2. Plane shear is not observed when the load is inclined at an angle = and the eccentricity e0 ( is the angle of the soil's internal friction as determined on a shear apparatus in accordance with GOST 12248–66).3. The settlements and lateral displacements of an embedded foundation (h/b>0.5) in the limiting state are 2–3 times larger than those of the nonembedded foundation; lateral displacements exceed the limiting values established for farm buildings [2], or approach them.4. For angles =20–40°, eccentricity of the inclined load in the direction opposite to the horizontal component, but not less than r_C (r_C is the core radius of the section) effects an increase in the ultimate load as compared to a central positioning of the resultant. Additional experiments and theoretical studies are required to investigate the role of positive and negative eccentricity on the bearing capacity of the foundation bed.5. For loads inclined at angles =35–40° and a relative foundation embedment 0.5h/b1, computation in accordance with SNiP II-15-74 yields considerably lower bearing capacity than computation from experimental data.6. The studies that we conducted are used to develop a more economical method of computing and designing foundations for farm buildings under an inclined loading, which is employed in practice [2].B. E. Vedeneev All-Union Scientific-Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering. Central Scientific-Research Institute of Experimental Design and Planning for Rural Construction. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 4, pp. 3–6, July–August, 1979.     

Location choice when price is also a decision variable

One of the fundamental contributions of Hotelling's classic Stability in Competition paper is the focus on the interaction of the price and location choice variables. In most of the subsequent research in this area, the price dimension has been assumed away. In this paper the jointness of the two decisions is reintroduced and the results for N firms in a linear market are compared to the parametric price equilibria developed by Lerner and Singer and Eaton and Lipsey. Their conclusions are found to be valid for the N-2 interior firms in the more general model. But what has been lost because of the equal price assumption is the actions of the two exterior firms who exploit their uniqueness by charging higher prices to their captive buyers. A simulation of the dynamics of the price and location choice process confirms the analytically defined equilibria.