Extended block diagram method for a multi-state system reliability assessment

The presented method extends the classical reliability block diagram method to a repairable multi-state system. It is very suitable for engineering applications since the procedure is well formalized and based on the natural decomposition of the entire multi-state system (the system is represented as a collection of its elements). Until now, the classical block diagram method did not provide the reliability assessment for the repairable multi-state system. The straightforward stochastic process methods are very difficult for engineering application in such cases due to the “dimension damnation”—huge number of system states. The suggested method is based on the combined random processes and the universal generating function technique and drastically reduces the number of states in the multi-state model.     

Redundancy analysis for repairable multi-state system by using combined stochastic processes methods and universal generating function technique

This paper discusses a type of redundancy that is typical in a multi-state system. It considers two interconnected multi-state systems where one multi-state system can satisfy its own stochastic demand and also can provide abundant resource (performance) to another system in order to improve the assisted system reliability. Traditional methods are usually not effective enough for reliability analysis for such multi-state systems because of the “dimensional curse” problem. This paper presents a new method for reliability evaluation for the repairable multi-state system considering such kind of redundancy. The proposed method is based on the combination of the universal generating function technique and random processes methods. The numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method.     

Importance and sensitivity analysis of multi-state systems using the universal generating function method

A method for the evaluation of element reliability importance in a multi-state system is proposed. The method is based on the universal generating function technique. It provides an effective importance analysis tool for complex series–parallel multi-state systems with a different physical nature of performance and takes into account a required performance (demand). The method is also extended for the sensitivity analysis of important multi-state system output performance measures: mean system performance and mean unsupplied demand during operating period. Numerical examples are given.     

Structure optimization of multi-state system with time redundancy

In this article, a multi-state system with time redundancy where each system element has its own operation time is considered. In addition, the system total task must be performed during the restricted time. The reliability optimization problem is treated as finding the minimal cost system structure subject to the reliability constraint. A method for reliability optimization for systems with time redundancy is proposed. This method is based on the universal generating function technique for the reliability index computation and on genetic algorithm for the optimization. It provides a solution for the optimization problem for the complex series–parallel system and for the system with bridge topology. Two types of systems will illustrate the approach: systems with ordinary hot reserve and systems with work sharing between elements connected in parallel. Numerical examples are also given.     

Reliability estimation and prediction of multi-state components and coherent systems

This paper discusses the multi-state coherent system composed of multi-state components. First, using the min cut sets or min path sets, we present our simulation algorithm, instead of the general structure function, to calculate the probability that the system is in a specified state. Second, we check the components per period, e.g. one check per year, to obtain the state sequences of all components. When the state sequences are Markovian chains, we can predict the reliability of the components in several periods, such as the probability that the components are in specified states. Also, we give two methods to compute the system reliability in a number of periods: one employs the states of the components in these periods, which can be predicted by the state transition probability matrixes of the components; the other uses the state transition probability matrix of the system obtained by the simulated states of the components.     

A universal generating function approach for the analysis of multi-state systems with dependent elements

The paper extends the universal generating function technique used for the analysis of multi-state systems to the case when the performance distributions of some elements depend on states of another element or group of elements.     

Approximate multi-state reliability expressions using a new machine learning technique

The machine-learning-based methodology, previously proposed by the authors for approximating binary reliability expressions, is now extended to develop a new algorithm, based on the procedure of Hamming Clustering, which is capable to deal with multi-state systems and any success criterion. The proposed technique is presented in details and verified on literature cases: experiment results show that the new algorithm yields excellent predictions.     

New insights on multi-state component criticality and importance

In this paper, new importance measures for multi-state systems with multi-state components are introduced and evaluated. These new measures complement and enhance current work done in the area of multi-state reliability. In general, importance measures are used to evaluate and rank the criticality of component or component states with respect to system reliability. The focus of the study is to provide intuitive and clear importance measures that can be used to enhance system reliability from two perspectives: (1) how a specific component affects multi-state system reliability and (2) how a particular component state or set of states affects multi-state system reliability. The first measure unsatisfied demand index, provides insight regarding a component or component state contribution to unsatisfied demand. The second measure multi-state failure frequency index, elaborates on an approach that quantifies the contribution of a particular component or component state to system failure. Finally, the multi-state redundancy importance identifies where to allocate component redundancy as to improve system reliability. The findings of this study indicate that both perspectives can be used to complement each other and as an effective tool to assess component criticality. Examples illustrate and compare the proposed measures with previous multi-state importance measures.     

Algorithm for estimating reliability confidence bounds of multi-state systems

The paper suggests an effective approach for the estimation of reliability confidence bounds based on component reliability and uncertainty data for multi-state systems with binary-capacitated components. The approach presented is based on the implementation of the universal generating function technique. When compared with a pure Monte Carlo simulation approach, the universal generating function (UGF)-based approach is proven to be more effective due to a more precise reliability estimation and a considerably lower computational effort. Examples are given throughout the paper to illustrate the suggested approach.     

Structure optimization of multi-state system with two failure modes

When systems with two failure modes (STFM) are considered, introducing redundant elements may either increase or decrease system reliability. Therefore the problem of system structure optimization arises. In this paper we consider systems consisting of elements characterized by different reliability and nominal performance rates. Such systems are multi-state because they can have different levels of output performance depending on the combination of elements available at the moment. The algorithm that determines the structure of multi-state STFM, which maximizes system reliability and/or expected performance is presented. In this algorithm, system elements are chosen from a list of available equipment. Reliability is defined as the probability of satisfaction of given constraints imposed on system performance in both modes.The procedure developed to solve this problem is based on the use of a universal moment generating function (UMGF) for the fast evaluation of multi-state system reliability and a genetic algorithm for optimization. Basic UMGF technique operators are developed for two different types of systems, based, respectively, on transmitting capacity and on processing time. Examples of the optimization of series–parallel structures of both types are presented.     

A multi-state Markov model for a short-term reliability analysis of a power generating unit

This paper presents a multi-state Markov model for a coal power generating unit. The paper proposes a technique for the estimation of transition intensities (rates) between the various generating capacity levels of the unit based on field observation. The technique can be applied to such units where output generating capacity is uniformly distributed. In order to estimate the transition intensities a special Markov chain embedded in the observed capacity process was defined. By using this technique, all transition intensities can be estimated from the observed realization of the unit generating capacity stochastic process. The proposed multi-state Markov model was used to calculate important reliability indices such as the Forced Outage Rate (FOR), the Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) to consumers, etc. These indices were found for short-time periods (about 100 h). It was shown that these indices are sensibly different from those calculated for a long-term range. Such Markov models could be very useful for power system security analysis and short-term operating decisions.     

ARM嵌入式系统综述

概述ARM的发展历史,介绍ARM系列处理器的种类、功能和特性,并介绍ARM嵌入式系统的硬件结构和现在应用广泛的多种常用嵌入式操作系统。     

Reliability evaluation of multi-state weighted -out-of- systems

The k-out-of-n systems have been extensively studied in recent years. A binary weighted k-out-of-n model has also been reported in the literature. In this paper, we first compare two approaches for reliability evaluation of binary weighted k-out-of-n systems. We then provide two models of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n system models. Recursive algorithms are presented for reliability evaluation of these new models. The universal generating function approach is also used for reliability evaluation of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems.     

A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the availability assessment of multi-state systems with operational dependencies

This paper deals with multi-state systems (MSS), whose performance can settle on different levels, e.g. 100%, 80%, 50% of the nominal capacity, depending on the operative conditions of the constitutive multi-state elements. Examples are manufacturing, production, power generation and gas and oil transportation systems. Often in practice, MSS are such that operational dependencies exist between the system state and the state of its components. For example, in a production line of nodal series structure, with no buffers between the nodes, if one of the nodes throughput changes (e.g. switches from 100% to 50% due to a deterministic or stochastic transition of one of its components), the other nodes must be reconfigured (i.e. their components must deterministically change their states) so as to provide the same throughput.In this paper, we present a Monte Carlo simulation technique which allows modelling the complex dynamics of multi-state components subject to operational dependencies with the system overall state. A correlation method is tailored to model the automatic change of state of the relevant components following a change in one of the system nodes. The proposed technique is verified on a simple case study of literature.     

Block diagram method for analyzing multi-state systems with uncovered failures

The paper suggests a modification of the generalized reliability block diagram (RBD) method for evaluating reliability and performance indices of multi-state systems with uncovered failures. Such systems (or their subsystems) can fail to perform their task in the case of undetected failure of any one of their elements. Examples of this effect can be found in computing systems, electrical power distribution networks, pipe lines carrying dangerous materials etc. The suggested method based on a universal generating function technique allows performance distribution of complex multi-state series-parallel system with uncovered failures to be obtained using a straightforward recursive procedure. Illustrative examples are presented.     

Common supply failures in linear multi-state sliding window systems

This paper considers a linear multi-state sliding window system (SWS) that consists of n linearly ordered multi-state elements. Each element can have different states: from complete failure to perfect functioning. A performance rate is associated with each state. The system fails if the sum of the performance rates of any r consecutive elements is lower than demand w. Different groups of elements (common supply groups (CSGs)) share some common resources. Failures in the resource supply system (common supply failures (CSF)) result in the simultaneous outage of several elements belonging to corresponding groups. Different groups of elements are affected by different CSF.This paper presents an algorithm for evaluating the reliability of SWS that is the subject of CSF. It also introduces the CSG reliability importance measure and suggests an algorithm for its estimation. Further, it formulates a problem of optimal element distribution among CSGs and presents a method for solving it.An illustrative example shows the application of the suggested algorithms.     

An evaluation of the multi-state node networks reliability using the traditional binary-state networks reliability algorithm

A system where the components and system itself are allowed to have a number of performance levels is called the Multi-state system (MSS). A multi-state node network (MNN) is a generalization of the MSS without satisfying the flow conservation law. Evaluating the MNN reliability arises at the design and exploitation stage of many types of technical systems. Up to now, the known existing methods can only evaluate a special MNN reliability called the multi-state node acyclic network (MNAN) in which no cyclic is allowed. However, no method exists for evaluating the general MNN reliability. The main purpose of this article is to show first that each MNN reliability can be solved using any the traditional binary-state networks (TBSN) reliability algorithm with a special code for the state probability. A simple heuristic SDP algorithm based on minimal cuts (MC) for estimating the MNN reliability is presented as an example to show how the TBSN reliability algorithm is revised to solve the MNN reliability problem. To the author's knowledge, this study is the first to discuss the relationships between MNN and TBSN and also the first to present methods to solve the exact and approximated MNN reliability. One example is illustrated to show how the exact MNN reliability is obtained using the proposed algorithm.     

Optimal series–parallel topology of multi-state system with two failure modes

In this paper, an algorithm for optimal allocation of multi-state elements (MEs) in acyclic transmission networks (ATNs) is suggested. The ATNs consist of a number of positions (nodes) in which MEs capable of receiving and sending a signal are allocated. Each network has a root position where the signal source is located, a number of leaf positions that can only receive a signal, and a number of intermediate positions containing MEs capable of transmitting the received signal to some other nodes. Each ME that is located in a nonleaf node can have different states determined by a set of nodes receiving the signal directly from this ME. The probability of each state is assumed to be known for each ME. The ATN reliability is defined as the probability that a signal from the root node is transmitted to each leaf node.The optimal distribution of MEs with different characteristics among ATN positions provides the greatest possible ATN reliability. The suggested algorithm is based on using a universal generating function technique for network reliability evaluation. A genetic algorithm is used as the optimization tool. Illustrative examples are presented.     

Generalised importance measures for multi-state elements based on performance level restrictions

In this paper we consider some commonly used importance measures in a generalised version proposed by some of the authors for application to multi-state systems constituted by multi-state elements. Physically, these measures characterize the importance for a multi-state element of achieving a given level of performance and their definitions entail evaluating the system availability and/or performance when the functioning of the element of interest is restricted in performance.With reference to a predefined threshold of element performance, two different types of restrictions are considered. The first one limits the elements' reachable states to those corresponding to performances either larger or not larger than the threshold level. The second one allows the element to visit all its states but limits its performance to values larger or not larger than the performance threshold.An approach based on the universal generating function technique is proposed for the evaluation of the introduced importance measures. A numerical application is provided in order to highlight the informative content of the introduced measures.     

Fault-tolerant embedded system design and optimization considering reliability estimation uncertainty

In this paper, we model embedded system design and optimization, considering component redundancy and uncertainty in the component reliability estimates. The systems being studied consist of software embedded in associated hardware components. Very often, component reliability values are not known exactly. Therefore, for reliability analysis studies and system optimization, it is meaningful to consider component reliability estimates as random variables with associated estimation uncertainty. In this new research, the system design process is formulated as a multiple-objective optimization problem to maximize an estimate of system reliability, and also, to minimize the variance of the reliability estimate. The two objectives are combined by penalizing the variance for prospective solutions. The two most common fault-tolerant embedded system architectures, N-Version Programming and Recovery Block, are considered as strategies to improve system reliability by providing system redundancy. Four distinct models are presented to demonstrate the proposed optimization techniques with or without redundancy. For many design problems, multiple functionally equivalent software versions have failure correlation even if they have been independently developed. The failure correlation may result from faults in the software specification, faults from a voting algorithm, and/or related faults from any two software versions. Our approach considers this correlation in formulating practical optimization models. Genetic algorithms with a dynamic penalty function are applied in solving this optimization problem, and reasonable and interesting results are obtained and discussed.