The synergy of learning organisations and flexible information technology

The switch from the Command-and-Control to Learning Organisation paradigm in the area of organisational theory is well understood. It is less well appreciated that learning organisations cannot operate effectively if supported by centralised data processing systems. The paper argues that there is a need for synergy between organisational structures and organisational information systems. Learning must be supported by the so-called new information technology. To obtain desired synergy it is necessary to design organisations and organisational information systems concurrently.     

A Bayesian information criterion for portfolio selection

The mean-variance theory of Markowitz (1952) indicates that large investment portfolios naturally provide better risk diversification than small ones. However, due to parameter estimation errors, one may find ambiguous results in practice. Hence, it is essential to identify relevant stocks to alleviate the impact of estimation error in portfolio selection. To this end, we propose a linkage condition to link the relevant and irrelevant stock returns via their conditional regression relationship. Subsequently, we obtain a BIC selection criterion that enables us to identify relevant stocks consistently. Numerical studies indicate that BIC outperforms commonly used portfolio strategies in the literature.     

一类部分信息下带有劳动力收入的最优投资消费问题

最优投资消费问题属于一类典型的随机最优控制问题. 劳动力收入可通过影响期望效用从而影响投资消 费策略的制定. 本文首次在股票收益率和劳动力收入均为不可观测过程情形下, 研究了一类部分信息下的最优投资 消费问题. 首先综合运用Kalman滤波和非线性滤波, 得到了Zakai方程的显式解, 将部分信息下的随机最优控制问题 转化为完备信息下的随机最优控制问题. 其次通过求解HJB方程以及证明验证定理, 得到了该类最优投资消费问题 的最优策略以及值函数的显式表达. 最后采用真实市场数据进行仿真, 对比经典完备信息模型与本文部分信息模型 所得最优策略的差异, 验证了本文所得最优策略在有效利用市场信息方面的优越性.     

The impact of information technology on information asymmetry

While much research has been undertaken on the impact and consequences of information systems on direct users of the systems and on their organizations, comparatively little recent work has addressed the impact on users of the information. For instance, accounting is the most widespread quantitative information system in use and one which has been profoundly affected by information technology (IT). Yet, existing studies of the impact of IT on accounting focus only on accountants themselves and internal financial reporting and they ignore external users of accounting information. As a first step toward a broader perspective, this paper empirically examines the effect of IT use on the information asymmetry (IA) between managers and external users by contrasting the role of IT in internal and external reporting. The paper suggests that IA has been aggravated, and IT use has played a role in this exacerbation. The implication is that the effect of IT use in accounting is not confined to accountants and individual organizations but extends to external stakeholders.     

基于多Agent和网格技术的煤炭企业项目组合信息管理平台研究

为了解决煤炭企业项目组合各参与方信息平台的异构问题,提出了一种基于多Agent和网格技术的煤炭企业项目组合信息管理平台,给出了该平台的框架、各Agent实体的功能设计及平台运行流程。该平台采用网格技术实现了各异构平台的集成,使得项目组合各参与方可协作工作,并采用多Agent系统将网格环境融合到各异构平台中,实现了各参与方信息平台的统一配置和管理。该平台在某煤炭企业的应用验证了其有效性。     

基于随机基准的动态均值-方差投资组合选择

在不完全市场下, 研究基于随机基准的动态均值-方差投资组合选择问题. 该问题也可以理解为一个跟踪误差动态投资组合问题, 并将之转化为一个等价的考虑风险调整的期望相对收益最大化问题. 利用随机动态规划方法, 给出了最优投资策略和有效前沿的显式表达式. 最后通过实证分析表明了不完全市场和完全市场下最优投资策略和有效前沿的变化, 并对相关结论进行了经济解释.

     

基于战略对应的IT项目组合选择模型

把信息技术项目当作组合来管理可以通过平衡风险和收益来促进企业目标和IT应用的结合,但由于决策信息的不确定性和IT项目目标与企业战略的难以对应,企业面临IT项目组合选择的挑战。构建基于战略对应的IT项目组合选择模型,其中模糊集和模糊层次分析法用来刻画不确定信息和评估IT项目风险、成本及收益,关键成功因素法用来提高IT项目与企业战略的对应,并建立模糊0－1整数规划。利用定性可能性理论把模糊组合选择模型转化为一般可求解的整数规划形式,最后用一个案例说明模型的用法。     

基于自回归移动平均反转的在线投资组合选择

针对现有均值反转类策略未充分考虑噪声数据、单周期假设和数据的非平稳性等问题，提出了一种基于多周期的高效的在线自回归移动平均反转（OLAR）算法。首先，利用自回归移动平均算法得到了股价预测模型，并经过合理的假设将其转化为自回归模型；然后，结合损失函数和正则项构造出了目标函数，并利用损失函数的二阶信息得到了参数的闭式解；接着，利用在线被动攻击（PA）算法得到了投资组合的闭式更新。理论分析和实验仿真结果表明，与鲁棒中位数反转（RMR）相比，OLAR在NYSE（O）、NYSE（N）、道琼斯工业指数（DJIA）和MSCI数据集上的累积收益分别提高了455.6%，221.5%，11.2%和50.3%；同时，统计检验结果表明，OLAR的表现并不是由随机因素造成的。此外，与RMR和在线滑动平均反转（OLMAR）等算法相比，OLAR获得了最大的年化收益率、夏普比率和Calmar比率；最后，OLAR的运行时间与RMR和OLMAR基本相同，因此也适合大规模的实时应用。     

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts’ estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts’ estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

A fuzzy-decision-tree approach for manufacturing technology selection exploiting experience-based information

Manufacturing technology selection is traditionally a human-driven approach where the trade-off of alternative manufacturing investments is steered by a group of experts. The problem is a semi-structured and subjective-based decision practice influenced by the experience and intuitive feeling of the decision-makers involved. This paper presents a distinct experience-based decision support system that uses factual information of historical decisions to calculate confidence factors for the successful adoption of potential technologies for a given set of requirements. A fuzzy-decision-tree algorithm is applied to provide a more objective approach given the evidence of previous manufacturing technology implementation cases. The model uses the information relationship of key technology decision variables, project requirements of an implemented technology case and the success outcome of a project to support decision problems. An empirical study was conducted at an aircraft manufacturer to support their technology decision for a typical medium complexity assembly investment project. The experimental analysis demonstrated encouraging results and practical viability of the approach.     

基于风险价值约束的动态均值-方差投资组合的研究

研究了基于风险价值约束的动态均值-方差项目投资组合的数学模型,该模型是控制带约束的随机线性二次型（LQ）控制问题.在讨论该随机LQ控制问题的解之后,给出投资组合动态数学模型对应的随机哈密顿-雅克比-贝尔曼方程的解,得出了有效边界和最佳策略,讨论了风险价值约束的影响.最后,针对某油田勘探开发项目的实际情况,应用上述结论求出该实例的解,并讨论了风险价值约束发挥的作用.     

The philosophical view of information and information technology

Various approaches to the definition of the concept “information,” viz., mathematical-physical, semantic, pragmatic, hermeneutic-existential, and angeletic, are considered. The relevance of the study of the history of philosophy in terms of information technology (IT) is noted. Two contradictory views of information technology, that is, engineering and anthropocentric, are addressed. The future promising lines in IT philosophy are considered.     

信息技术对管理沟通的影响

随着现代化企业管理制度的不断革新,企业的管理者逐渐对信息交流以及员工间的信息沟通给予了高度重视。在信息技术的高度发展下,管理者与员工间的沟通更为便捷、高效,达到的沟通效果也是更加令人满意。文中首先对信息技术及其重要性进行分析,然后,探索信息技术的不断改进对管理沟通的重要促进作用。     

The synergy effect in the natural technologies of an organism

This paper studies the modified mathematical model of the natural technologies of an organism. The synergy effect caused by damaging the basic system components of an organism is explored at the qualitative level. Finally, we introduce a certain measure of organism’s integral degradation; the measure serves for obtaining some quantitative estimates of the synergy effect.     

Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects

Global competition of markets has forced firms to invest in targeted R&D projects so that resources can be focused on successful outcomes. A number of options are encountered to select the most appropriate projects in an R&D project portfolio selection problem. The selection is complicated by many factors, such as uncertainty, interdependences between projects, risk and long lead time, that are difficult to measure. Our main concern is how to deal with the uncertainty and interdependences in project portfolio selection when evaluating or estimating future cash flows. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-objective programming approach to facilitate decision making in the selection of R&D projects. Here, we present a fuzzy tri-objective R&D portfolio selection problem which maximizes the outcome and minimizes the cost and risk involved in the problem under the constraints on resources, budget, interdependences, outcome, projects occurring only once, and discuss how our methodology can be used to make decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment. A case study is provided to illustrate the proposed method where the solution is done by genetic algorithm (GA) as well as by multiple objective genetic algorithm (MOGA).     

A portfolio selection model with borrowing constraint based on possibility theory

Compared with the conventional probabilistic mean-variance methodology, fuzzy number can better describe an uncertain environment with vagueness and ambiguity. In this paper, the portfolio selection model with borrowing constraint is proposed by means of possibilistic mean, possibilistic variance, and possibilistic covariance under the assumption that the returns of assets are fuzzy numbers. And a quadratic programming model with inequality constraints is presented when the returns of assets are trapezoid fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, Lemke algorithm is utilized to solve the model. Finally, a numerical example of the portfolio selection problem is given to illustrate our proposed effective means and variances. The results of the numerical example also show that the investor can make different decisions according to different requirements for the values of expected returns. And the efficient portfolio frontier of the model with borrowing constraints can be easily obtained.     

A fuzzy portfolio selection method based on possibilistic mean and variance

This paper deals with the portfolio selection problem when the returns of assets obey LR-type possibility distributions and there exist the limits on holdings. A new possibilistic mean–variance model to portfolio selection is proposed based on the definitions of the possibilistic return and possibilistic risk, which can better integrate an uncertain decision environment with vagueness and ambiguity. This possibilistic mean–variance model can be regarded as extensions of conventional probabilistic mean–variance methodology and previous possibilistic approaches since it contains less parameter and has a more extensive application. A numerical example of a possibilistic fuzzy portfolio selection problem is given to illustrate our proposed effective means and approaches. This project was supported by NCET (No.06-0749) and The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70571024).     

The process of introducing information technology

Abstract

This paper outlines the strategies adopted by the psychologists and ergonomists of the HUSAT Research Group to help organizations learn about information technology and systematically review and plan its organizational ramifications. An essential point is that it is not enough to understand the technology; effective implementation demands the ability to establish organizational needs and to choose a form of technology which will meet them.

The paper examines three ways of designing systems. Firstly, a technology-led approach which leads to 'fire fighting' when the negative organizational effects become apparent. A second method has tried to compensate for this by involving users in the design process. Unfortunately by the time the users have come to terms with their new task and are able to make a contribution, the system has usually been designed.

The third method of design expressly seeks to give users the time and opportunity to learn how to contribute to design, by making the design process evolutionary; i.e. by building slowly from small systems to large ones and retaining the flexibility to change. Within this concept user learning and adaptation is promoted by pilot systems, user design exercises, user support and evaluation procedures. It is only by these methods that users can be given the confidence and knowledge to exploit the potential of the new technology.     

计算机信息技术的应用初探

近几年的数字科技发展的非常快,计算机更是走进行千家万户,人们的生活越来越离不开它,计算机信息为适合社会的不断发展,技术的发展也成为当前科技的发展重心,而且由于社会的需求,也为计算机技术发展提供了一个广大的空间.在此文中,主要对计算机信息向哪个方向发展,以及其在现实中的应用做了系统的研究和分析.