环渤海低平原土壤盐化特征及基于DEM的Co-Kriging插值研究

针对环渤海低平原土壤盐化特征,通过选取0～20 cm深度内的127个代表性土样进行土壤全盐量测定,结合DEM,综合运用地质统计学方法与GIS技术研究土壤盐分的空间分布状况.结果表明,土壤盐分空间变异强度属于中等,土壤盐分单变量和交互变量的空间相关程度均属于中等,空间自相关距离分别为40.60 km 和135.60 km.环渤海低平原土壤盐分含量在不同高程上存在分布差异,并随着高程的降低土壤盐分含量呈增加的趋势.自内陆平原向东部滨海平原土壤盐分含量逐渐增加,盐分含量较高的地区出现在唐山-天津-沧州-东营-滨州一线.非盐化土以内陆平原为主,分布在保定-衡水-邢台-邯郸一线.通过协同克立格插值的均方根误差与普通克立格插值相比减少了0.29%,而预测值与实测值的相关系数提高了20.58%.     

平原水库渗流分析的边界单元法

新疆平原水库大都建立在无限深透水地基上,坝基渗漏易造成水库周边地区的土壤发生次生盐碱化。要防止土壤次生盐渍化,其重要举措就是采用防渗措施将水库周边地区的地下水位控制在"临界埋深"以下。用边界单元法建立渗流计算模型,通过调整水平铺盖防渗体的长度,可控制水库周边地区的地下水位,防止次生盐渍化的发生。     

焉耆盆地土壤次生盐渍化影响因素分析

采用灰色关联分析方法,对焉耆盆地土壤含盐量及相关影响因素的关系作了初步评价。结果表明:地下水蒸发量对土壤含盐量的影响最大,其次是地下水位埋深、潜水矿化度、灌区排水量、灌区引盐量、灌区引水量。根据焉耆盆地的实际情况,指出土壤次生盐渍化防治可从减少灌区引水量和降低地下水位入手。     

防-截-排系统对平原水库坝后地下水位的影响

针对干旱区平原水库渗漏引起的坝后土壤盐渍化问题及防治措施,以恰拉水库为例,基于非饱和渗流理论,运用ABAQUS有限元软件模拟水库在不同防渗措施与截排水系统的联合作用下对坝后地下水埋深的影响。结果表明:通过"上游防渗、下游截排"的形式可以有效的降低坝后农田地下水位,防治土壤发生次生盐渍化。相比无防渗和水平铺盖措施,垂直防渗措施结合截排水系统更能有效地将下游渗流稳定区的地下水位埋深控制在2.67 m,大于周边农田的"临界埋深"(2.45 m)。防渗措施与截水沟的联合作用重点解决了坝后渗漏水的"来源"问题,而排水系统不但可以保证截水沟控渗效果的持续性,还可以解决渗漏水的"去向"问题——坝后截排水系统与农田渠系的结合使坝后渗漏水用于农田灌溉,最终实现了坝后控渗、治理土壤盐渍化体系与农田灌溉体系相结合的理念。     

宁夏沙坡头灌区土壤盐渍化影响因素分析

基于宁夏第五次土壤盐渍化调查数据,以宁夏沙坡头灌区为对象,分析高位灌区对低位灌区土壤盐渍化的影响,系统阐述地下水埋深、矿化度与土壤盐渍化的关系,得出:1南山台子扬水灌区对低位灌区的影响范围为350~550m,由高位灌区前沿向低位灌区延伸,土壤盐渍化程度由重变轻;2根据地下水埋深与土壤盐化模型分析结果,春灌前地下水埋深越小,土壤盐分积累越快,含盐量越大;3地下水矿化度的大小影响土壤盐渍化的程度,矿化度越大,土壤盐渍化程度越重。     

河套平原次生盐渍化地区地下水动态调控模拟研究

在盐荒地野外水盐运移试验的基础上,建立了基于饱和-非饱和带的土壤水盐运移模型,以地下水埋深为调控关键因子,利用HYDRUS软件模拟了河套灌区荒地不同时段的不同控制地下水埋深条件下包气带水盐变化规律。通过模型反算,定量确定了不同时段防治盐渍化的地下水埋深临界值。模拟结果:在年内2~3次灌溉淋滤的条件下,3月-6月份(春融返盐期)控制地下水埋深大于2.4~2.7 m,7月初-9月初,控制地下水埋深大于1.8~2.1 m,9月中旬-11月中旬(秋浇积盐期),控制地下水埋深大于1.5~1.8 m,11月下旬-3月上旬(冬封期)控制地下水埋深大于2.0~2.3 m可使0~50 cm土层的全盐量基本小于0.2%,处于非盐渍化状态。研究结果可为河套平原次生盐渍化区水盐运移调控和盐渍化改良提供借鉴和依据,具有重要理论和应用意义。     

土壤水盐空间变异性指示克立格阈值及其与有关函数的关系

本文以内蒙古河套灌区土壤水盐空间变异性为案例,分析了指示克立格(IK)法阈值与指示概率函数和指示变异函数的关系。探讨了指示阈值的选择原则。认为从提高概率预测精度考虑,水分指示阈值应选择低于中位数的偏小阈值;盐分指示阈值应选择高于中位数的偏大阈值。通过单阈值IK法与普通克立格(OK)法、反距离加权平均法的估计效果比较,发现单阈值IK法可用于具有一定风险条件下的区域性土壤水盐空间插值,该法无需处理特异值,可直接进行估计,估值效果明显优于传统反距离加权平均法,对OK法的平滑效应也有一定改进。     

盘山灌区土壤盐渍化分异特征及其主控因素分析

盘山灌区曾是退海之地，过境几条河流夹带泥沙入海沉积形成复杂的土壤分布，土壤盐渍化程度偏高，对区域生态和经济的良性发展构成严重影响。本研究采样分析了盘山灌区土壤盐渍化程度和分布特征，并进一步探讨其成因类型及主控因素。结果表明：灌区内发生次生盐渍化的样点占比达到50.8%,其中东南部及北部特别是林家站干渠和双西绕总干渠盐渍化较重，盐分以SO4·Cl-Na和SO4-Na为主，整体呈斑块状分布特征；浅层地下水埋深3.24m,属微咸水，TDS含量较高为2.80g/L,致使高TDS的直接原因包括强烈的蒸散浓缩、冬季压盐、长期地表漫灌引起地下水位抬升等，而冲击平原土壤盐渍化的主控因素有强烈潜水蒸发引起养分上升、浅层地下水位抬升以及较高的地下水盐度。     

黄河三角洲地区冬小麦微咸水灌溉制度模拟

合理开发浅埋区地下微咸水用于灌溉不仅可以解决水资源短缺的问题,而且可以通过降低地下水位减轻土壤次生盐碱化,改善作物生长的水土环境。选择淡水资源紧缺、地下水埋深浅、土壤水盐运动剧烈的黄河三角洲地区,基于FEFLOW软件建立了引黄灌区的水流与溶质运移数值模拟模型,并应用率定和验证后的模型对多种微咸水(矿化度为2~5 g/L)灌溉方案进行模拟,综合考虑地下水位临界深度和冬小麦生育期耐盐极限,确立了较优的微咸水灌溉制度,包括一次性灌足关键微咸水、微咸水与淡水混合灌溉、微咸水与淡水轮流灌溉三种灌溉方式。     

塔里木河下游土壤盐分空间变异规律研究

针对目前干旱区广泛存在的土壤盐渍化问题,以塔里木河下游流域为研究区,基于经典统计学和地统计学相结合的方法,研究不同层次土壤盐分的空间变异特征。同时利用研究区典型断面的2000-2011年期间地下水埋深和矿化度数据,探讨土壤盐分的影响因素及其变化规律。结果表明:研究区土壤盐分普遍较高表聚作用明显且存在着空间上的相关性,在垂直方向上呈现自上而下逐渐递减的趋势,在水平方向上表现出整体条带状,局部斑块状格局的变异特征。地下水埋深和矿化度是影响土壤盐分分布的主要因素,土壤全盐量与两者存在良好的指数函数关系,根据地下水埋深和矿化度的年际变化间接反馈出研究区土壤盐分的变化趋势,从而为研究区的土壤盐渍化防治及区域水盐运动调控提供理论基础和科学依据。     

区域浅层地下水硝酸盐含量评价的指示克立格法

在进行区域水土资源特性的分析中经常会发现一些特异值，用普通克立格法来求解，通常是不稳健的。为此，本文引入了地统计学方法中的指示克立格法，详细介绍了其基本原理和计算方法。通过对华北冲击平原区曲周县667km2的139个点的浅层地下水井取样分析，发现硝酸盐含量中存在有特异值，应用指示克立格法对其进行了分析，并绘制了硝酸盐含量的分布图及其含量超过最大允许值的概率图。这为区域水土资源利用的风险性评价提供了一种新的方法，同时也为区域水土资源质量的决策管理提供了指导。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的地表水地下水耦合模拟模型不确定分析

为分析参数的不确定性对地表水地下水耦合模拟模型输出结果的影响,本文运用Monte Carlo方法对地表水地下水耦合模拟模型进行不确定性分析,并根据不确定性分析结果进行生态恶化风险评估。以石头口门水库上游饮马河汇水流域为例,建立地表水地下水耦合模拟模型,并运用HydroGeosphere(HGS)软件求解。利用局部灵敏度分析方法甄选出耦合模拟模型中灵敏度较高的参数,作为随机变量。最后,运用Monte Carlo方法对耦合模拟模型进行不确定性分析。为了减少不确定性分析过程中的计算负荷,应用Kriging方法,建立耦合模拟模型的替代模型。结果表明:地表水地下水耦合模拟模型中灵敏度较高的参数为渗透系数、孔隙度和曼宁粗糙系数,其中渗透系数的变化不仅对耦合模型中地下水水位产生影响,也对地表水流量产生影响;Kriging替代模型可以在保证一定精度的条件下大幅度减少计算负荷;风险评估结果表明,在当前的水资源开发利用条件状态下,研究区地下水生态环境恶化风险的概率为6%,地表水生态环境恶化风险概率为15%。     

Statistical tools for thermal regime characterization at segment river scale: Case study of the Ste‐Marguerite River

Suitable thermal fish habitats are constrained by both maximum and minimum temperature tolerances. A multivariate and geostatistical approach was developed to estimate stream thermal characteristics at the river segment scale. Data from 22 temperature‐monitoring stations during summer 2007 were used to estimate monthly maximum temperature as well as thermal characteristics such as the number of events, the cumulative degree–days and the associated duration over specific temperature thresholds of 19 and 21°C. The probability of exceeding these temperature thresholds has also been interpolated. The methodology relies on the construction of a multivariate space using physiographic and hydrological characteristics of gauging stations as inputs in a canonical correlation analysis (CCA). A geostatistical interpolation technique, ordinary kriging, was subsequently used to perform interpolation in the physiographical space constructed using CCA. Results from this study were obtained for thermal characteristics estimated into two different interpolation spaces: (1) a 7 metrics space, and (2) an 8 metrics space. Cross‐validation technique has been performed and satisfactory results were obtained. Kriging thermal characteristics (magnitude and duration) into the 7 metric space for a 19°C threshold exceedance leads to best results with Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) ranging between 9.66 and 15.08%. The study shows that kriging in a multivariate space is a promising tool for water resources managers, especially in cases where risk mapping for lethal or sub‐lethal temperature thresholds may be required for a specific fish species. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of a reservoir on fish assemblages of small tributaries of the Corumbá river,Brazil

Fish community surveys were conducted in five tributaries of the Corumbá River before and after damming. Electrofishing samples were collected monthly in the pre‐impoundment period (March 1996 to August 1996) and 15 in the post‐impoundment period (September 1996 to February 1999). A self‐organizing map (SOM, an Artificial Neural Network algorithm) was used to represent the patterns of fish assemblages. Samples collected in both the pre‐ and post‐impoundment periods were randomly dispersed on the SOM, and, therefore, a clear and significant pattern of separation between samples collected during these two time periods was not found. Mean and maximum water depth, which is correlated with ground water level, did not significantly separate the pre‐ and post‐impoundment samples. However, we found significant differences between the two periods for water temperature, pH, conductivity, DO and current velocity, but abundances of fish species (summarized in the clusters identified by the SOM) did not differ significantly. Instead, the validity of the clusters distinguished by the SOM was confirmed by significant differences in some biotic variables: species richness, equitability and log transformed total abundance. Indicator species values identified the most preferred cluster (and respective complex of environmental factors) for a given species. Only one cluster did not contain any significant species indicator values, but it was dominated by samples from the Furnas Stream, which was the only effluent that could be entered by fish from the main river channel after the damming owing to its location below the dam, which has no fish ladder. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure of endemic fish assemblages in the upper Yangtze River Basin

This study focused on characterizing the endemic fish assemblages in the upper Yangtze River Basin and identifying the relative influences of catchment land‐cover variables on observed fish patterns in order to suggest a conservation strategy. A model based on a self‐organizing map was applied to determine endemic fish assemblages along the river network, based on presence/absence data for 124 endemic species. Five fish assemblages (Ia, Ib, IIa, IIb1, IIb2) were described. These assemblages varied significantly in terms of individual species patterns as well as species richness. Indicator species were identified for each class of community (0, 3, 9, 27, 0 species for cluster Ia, Ib, IIa, IIb1, IIb2, respectively). Structure of the endemic fish assemblages in the upper Yangtze River was highly correlated with local topographic and geomorphic characteristics. Simultaneously, the catchment land cover features also reflected out this endemic fish distribution structure. Among 18 land‐cover types, alpine and sub‐alpine meadow, together with farmland, were revealed to be the most important factors both in discriminating the endemic fish assemblages and in correlating species distributions by using discriminant analysis and co‐inertia analysis. Finally, in order to preserve the rare and endemic fish in the upper Yangtze River, reserve networks, rather than a single national nature reserve, should be established. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国流域降水数据的空间插值方法评估

降水量的空间分布信息在水资源管理、旱涝灾害预测和可持续发展等研究领域具有重要价值。以中国1 915个气象站在1981～2010年间的平均降水量观测数据为基础,选取了反距离权重法(IDW)、径向基函数法(RBF)、全局多项式法(GPI)、局部多项式法(LPI)、普通克里金法(Ordinary Kriging)、简单克里金法(Simple Kriging)、泛克里金法(Universal Kriging)以及经验贝叶斯克里金法(EBK)8种空间内插方法进行评估。研究依据DEM数据的流域分析结果,对我国三大流域的降水量进行区域插值,同时采用交叉验证方法,对中国范围整体插值精度以及分区后三大流域的插值精度分别进行了验证。结果表明:对全国范围内采用经验贝叶斯克里金插值法取得了较好的效果;三大流域中,对黄河流域采用泛克里金法最优,对长江流域采用普通克里金法最优,珠江流域采用径向基函数法最优。最后以流域内的城市为例进行验证,结果表明各流域的最优空间插值方法具备有效性和指导价值。     

非平稳区域化变量克立格插值方法的比较

为了减少非平稳区域化变量的插值计算的工作量,以中国中东部地区59站1960~2000年的年平均降水量为数据源,采用普通克立格法与泛克立格法两种方法对降雨量进行空间插值,对其插值结果进行比较。结果表明,两者的插值结果非常相似,且前者的插值精度略优于后者。认为在无需详细了解变量的空间变异性情况,而只进行空间插值研究时,用普通克立格法代替泛克立格法进行非平稳区域化变量的空间插值具有计算简单、无需确定漂移等优点,同时可以取得较好的插值效果。     

Effects of Raingauge Distribution on Estimation Accuracy of Areal Rainfall

Rainfall analysis is important to managing water resources. Mean rainfall is usually used to calculate the spatial rainfall status of a region and is the input into various rainfall-runoff models. However, this method relies on an adequate raingauge network. This study identifies the effects of raingauge distribution based on estimation results of areal rainfall using the Thiessen polygon and block Kriging methods. Twelve rainfall events with complete data from 14 raingauges were selected to complete the goal of this study. The block Kriging method in this study uses a dimensionless semivariogram to obtain hourly semivariograms based on a standardized rainfall depth. The power semivariogram model was used to describe the temporal-spatial variation of rainfall. The analytical process in this study uses raingauge weight and rainfall volume as evaluation criteria. All raingauges were in turn removed from the original raingauge network. The effects of removing each raingauge were compared with computations using all raingauges. Comparison results indicate that (1) the block Kriging method can accurately describe rainfall processes in terms of the spatiotemporal structure of a semivariogram. (2) the block Kriging method is better than the Thiessen polygon method at obtaining exact mean rainfall, and (3) the effects of different raingauge distributions on a mean hyetograph warrant further investigation.     

空间插值气象数据在Shuttleworth-Wallace潜在蒸散发模型中的应用

基于Kriging空间插值气象数据、IGBP土地覆盖和AVHRR NDVI数据,利用Shuttleworth-Wallace模型估算韩江流域2000—2006年的潜在蒸散发(PET)。结果表明:流域PET空间分布呈显著的非均匀性,其值在496.6~1741.8 mm/a范围内变化,标准差为165.9 mm/a,主要受区域的气候和植被类型影响;PET随气候的变化和植被的生长呈季节性变化;低分辨率的输入数据会使PET模拟结果在相同尺度的范围内被一定程度地均化;气象站点密度对PET的计算结果有影响,Kriging插值气象数据的站点密度远大于CRU数据,两种数据计算的PET结果的空间分布和季节变化的对比显示,前者计算的PET精度高于后者。     

考虑土层边界不确定性的边坡稳定性概率分析

目前,边坡稳定性的概率分析多数只考虑了单层土质边坡中的土体参数空间变异性,而忽略了多层土质边坡中土层边界不确定的影响。为此,提出了同时考虑这两类因素的边坡概率分析方法,利用随机有限元法和克里金插值方法同时表征了土体参数空间变异性和土层边界不确定性并考虑了静力触探测试对土层边界不确定性的约束。以某二维边坡为例,对比分析了仅考虑土体参数空间变异性和同时考虑两类因素的情况。结果表明,土层边界不确定性的影响在边坡稳定性分析中不可忽视。详细分析了边界深度变异系数、边界深度相关长度、静力触探布置密度对边坡稳定性的具体影响,并指出静力触探布置的合理密度与边界深度相关长度息息相关。因此,在设计边坡时能否获取边界深度相关长度的信息,是优化设计费用的关键。