Spatial variation of emissions impacts due to renewable energy siting decisions in the Western U.S. under high-renewable penetration scenarios

One of the policy goals motivating programs to increase renewable energy investment is that renewable electric generation will help reduce emissions of CO₂ as well as emissions of conventional pollutants (e.g., SO₂ and NO_x). As a policy instrument, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) encourage investments in wind, solar and other generation sources with the goal of reducing air emissions from electricity production. Increased electricity production from wind turbines is expected to displace electricity production from fossil-fired plants, thus reducing overall system emissions. We analyze the emissions impacts of incremental investments in utility-scale wind power, on the order of 1 GW beyond RPS goals, in the Western United States using a utility-scale generation dispatch model that incorporates the impacts of transmission constraints. We find that wind investment in some locations leads to slight increases in overall emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x. The location of wind farms influences the environmental impact by changing the utilization of transmission assets, which affects the overall utilization of power generation sources and thus system-level emissions. Our results suggest that renewable energy policy beyond RPS targets should be carefully crafted to ensure consistency with environmental goals.     

The renewable energy,CO2 emissions,and economic growth: VAR model

This paper provides an empirical analysis of CO₂ emissions and economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and energy consumption over the period 1975–2014 in Germany. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models. The unit root and cointegration tests show that the long-run relationship between CO₂ emissions and its determinants. The empirical results show that the findings do not support the environmental Kuznets curve between real GDP and CO₂ emissions. To estimate the shocks of renewable energy consumptions, the study applies the dynamic test of Impulse Response Function (IRF) under the VAR method. The increasing portion of renewable energy consumption in electricity generation would have no impacts on the environment. However, the hikes of renewable energy sources would incur more cost to electricity producers and shrivel up the growth of economies through the expansionary effect of industry’s consumption and private capital spending in the Germany’s economy.     

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in seven Asia-Pacific and North American countries: A decomposition analysis

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method of complete decomposition is used to examine the role of three factors (electricity production, electricity generation structure and energy intensity of electricity generation) affecting the evolution of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in seven countries. These seven countries together generated 58% of global electricity and they are responsible for more than two-thirds of global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in 2005. The analysis shows production effect as the major factor responsible for rise in CO₂ emissions during the period 1990–2005. The generation structure effect also contributed in CO₂ emissions increase, although at a slower rate. In contrary, the energy intensity effect is responsible for modest reduction in CO₂ emissions during this period. Over the 2005–2030 period, production effect remains the key factor responsible for increase in emissions and energy intensity effect is responsible for decrease in emissions. Unlike in the past, generation structure effect contributes significant decrease in emissions. However, the degree of influence of these factors affecting changes in CO₂ emissions vary from country to country. The analysis also shows that there is a potential of efficiency improvement of fossil-fuel-fired power plants and its associated co-benefits among these countries.     

Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO₂ emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input–output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO₂ emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO₂ emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO₂ abatement.     

Examining the driving forces for improving China’s CO2 emission intensity using the decomposing method

This paper examines the driving forces for reducing China’s CO₂ emission intensity between 1998 and 2008, utilizing the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) technique. By first grouping the CO₂ emissions into two categories, those arising from activities related to the electric power industry and those from other sources, emission intensity is further broken down into the effects of the CO₂ emission coefficient, energy intensity of power generation, power generation and consumption ratio, electricity intensity of the gross domestic product (GDP), provincial structural change, and the energy intensity of the GDP for other activities. The decomposition results show that improvements in the energy intensity of power generation, electricity intensity of GDP, and energy intensity of GDP for other activities were mainly responsible for the success in reducing China’s CO₂ emission intensity and that activities related to the electric power industry played a key role. It is also revealed that performance varied significantly at the individual province level. The provinces with higher emission levels contributed the most to China’s improvements in CO₂ emission intensity.     

Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios

As a response to the twin challenges of climate change mitigation and energy security, the UK government has set a groundbreaking target of reducing the UK’s economy-wide carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. A second key UK energy policy is to increase the share of final energy consumption from renewables sources to 15% by 2020, as part of the wider EU Renewable Directive. The UK’s principle mechanisms to meet this renewable target are the Renewable Obligation (RO) in the electricity sector, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), and most recently the Renewable Heat Programme (RHP) for buildings. This study quantifies a range of policies, energy pathways, and sectoral trade-offs when combining mid- and long-term UK renewables and CO₂ reduction policies. Stringent renewable policies are the binding constraints through 2020. Furthermore, the interactions between RO, RTFO, and RHP policies drive trade-offs between low carbon electricity, bio-fuels, high efficiency natural gas, and demand reductions as well as resulting 2020 welfare costs. In the longer term, CO₂ reduction constraints drive the costs and characteristics of the UK energy system through 2050.     

Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain

In this paper, different electricity demand scenarios for Spain are presented. Population, income per capita, energy intensity and the contribution of electricity to the total energy demand have been taken into account in the calculations. Technological role of different generation technologies, i.e. coal, nuclear, renewable, combined cycle (CC), combined heat and power (CHP) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), are examined in the form of scenarios up to 2050. Nine future scenarios corresponding to three electrical demands and three options for new capacity: minimum cost of electricity, minimum CO₂ emissions and a criterion with a compromise between CO₂ and cost (CO₂-cost criterion) have been proposed. Calculations show reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2030, reaching a maximum CO₂ emission reduction of 90% in 2050 in an efficiency scenario with CCS and renewables. The contribution of CCS from 2030 is important with percentage values of electricity production around 22–28% in 2050. The cost of electricity (COE) increases up to 25% in 2030, and then this value remains approximately constant or decreases slightly.     

Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005–2007) and the second phase (2008–2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO₂-emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO₂-emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO₂-emission prices over €15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies).     

Environmental degradation,economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia

This paper tests for the short and long-run relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and energy consumption, using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) by employing both the aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption data in Malaysia for the period 1980–2009. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and Johansen–Juselius maximum likelihood approach were used to test the cointegration relationship; and the Granger causality test, based on the vector error correction model (VECM), to test for causality. The study does not support an inverted U-shaped relationship (EKC) when aggregated energy consumption data was used. When data was disaggregated based on different energy sources such as oil, coal, gas and electricity, the study does show evidences of the EKC hypothesis. The long-run Granger causality test shows that there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, with coal, gas, electricity and oil consumption. This suggests that decreasing energy consumption such as coal, gas, electricity and oil appears to be an effective way to control CO₂ emissions but simultaneously will hinder economic growth. Thus suitable policies related to the efficient consumption of energy resources and consumption of renewable sources are required.     

Development forecast of renewable energy power generation in China and its influence on the GHG control strategy of the country

CO₂ emissions of the electricity supply sector in China account for about half of the total volume in the country. Thus, reducing CO₂ emissions in China’s electricity supply sector will contribute significantly to the efforts of greenhouse gas (GHG) control in the country and the rest of the world. This paper introduces the development status of renewable energy and other main CO₂ mitigation options in power generation in China and makes a preliminary prediction of the development of renewable energy in the country for future decades. Besides, based on the situation in China, the paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of CO₂ mitigation costs, mitigation potential, and fossil energy conversation capacity of renewable energy and other mitigation options, through which the influence of renewable energy on the mitigation strategy of China is analyzed.     

Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic,environment, and adequacy of energy sources

This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for a long-term generation mix in Indonesia. The objective of this work is to assess the economic, environment, and adequacy of local energy sources. The model includes two competing objective functions to seek the lowest cost of generation and the lowest CO₂ emissions while considering technology diffusion. The scenarios include the use of fossil reserves with or without the constraints of the reserve to production ratio and exports. The results indicate that Indonesia should develop all renewable energy and requires imported coal and natural gas. If all fossil resources were upgraded to reserves, electricity demand in 2050 could be met by domestic energy sources. The maximum share of renewable energy that can be achieved in 2050 is 33% with and 80% without technology diffusion. The least cost optimization produces lower generation costs than the least CO₂ emissions, as well as the combined scenario. Total CO₂ emissions in 2050 are five to six times as large as current emissions. The least CO₂ emissions scenario can reduce almost half of the CO₂ emissions of the least cost scenario by 2050. The proposed multi-objective optimization model leads some optimal solutions for a more sustainable electricity system.     

Effects of nuclear power plant shutdowns on electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions after the Tohoku Earthquake

This study analyzes how the substitution of fossil fuels for nuclear power due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the Tohoku Earthquake affects electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. Results indicate that Japan generated 4.3 million metric tons (or 0.3%, with a 95% confidence interval) of additional CO₂ emissions in 2011 following the earthquake. The increase in CO₂ emissions stemmed from the combined effects of decreased electricity consumption due to energy conservation efforts and the substitution of fossil fuels for nuclear power following the Tohoku Earthquake. Results also show considerable spatial variation in the impacts of the earthquake on net CO₂ emissions. A majority of the prefectures (40 of 47 prefectures, or 85%) were predicted to experience higher CO₂ emissions after the Tohoku Earthquake while the remaining (7 prefectures) were predicted to experience lower CO₂ emissions. Our findings suggest that Japan and countries under similar risks may want to reformulate energy policy by emphasizing utilization of diverse power and energy sources, including more renewable energy production and electricity conservation. The policy reform should also consider spatial variation in the combined effects of reduced reliance on nuclear power and increased CO₂ conversion factors.     

Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading

This paper presents a model-based approach, which allows to determine the optimised structure and operation of the EU-15 electricity supply under different political and economic framework conditions, with a focus on the integration of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E) in the EU-15 countries. The approach is designed to take into account the characteristics of power production from both renewable and conventional sources, including the technological and economic characteristics of existing plants as well as those of future capacity expansion options. Beyond that, fuel supply structures are modelled, as well as the international markets for power and CO₂-certificates with their restrictions. Thus, a profound evaluation of the exploitation of mid-term renewable potentials and an assessment of the market penetration of the various renewable power generation technologies under the (normative) premise of a cost-optimised evolution of the power system becomes possible. Results show that a promotion of renewable energies reduces the scarcity of CO₂-emission allowances and thus lowers marginal costs of CO₂ reduction up to 30% in 2030. Despite the higher overall costs, a diversification of the energy resource base by RES-E use is observed, as primarily natural gas and nuclear fuels are replaced.     

Energy consumption and related CO2 emissions in five Latin American countries: Changes from 1990 to 2006 and perspectives

This study examines the primary energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela during the period 1990-2006. It also reviews important reforms in the energy sector of these countries as well as the promotion of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy sources (RES). Using a decomposition analysis, results indicate that even though significant reductions in energy intensity have been achieved in Colombia, Mexico and in a lesser extent in Brazil and Argentina, the reduction of CO₂ emissions in these countries has not been significant due to an increased dependence on fossil fuels in their energy mix. Although the Latin American region has an important experience in the promotion of EE programs and renewable sources, the energy agenda of the examined countries focused mostly on the energy reforms during the analyzed period. The policy review suggests that further governmental support and strong public policies towards a more sustainable energy path are required to encourage a low carbon future in the region.     

Status of thermal power generation in India—Perspectives on capacity,generation and carbon dioxide emissions

India’s reliance on fossil-fuel based electricity generation has aggravated the problem of high carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, primarily coal, in the country’s energy sector. The objective of this paper is to analyze thermal power generation in India for a four-year period and determine the net generation from thermal power stations and the total and specific CO₂ emissions. The installed generating capacity, net generation and CO₂ emissions figures for the plants have been compared and large generators, large emitters, fuel types and also plant vintage have been identified. Specific emissions and dates of commissioning of plants have been taken into account for assessing whether specific plants need to be modernized. The focus is to find out areas and stations which are contributing more to the total emissions from all thermal power generating stations in the country and identify the overall trends that are emerging.     

Temporal CO2 emissions associated with electricity generation: Case study of Singapore

Studying temporal patterns in emissions associated with electricity generation is increasingly important. On the supply side, there is interest in integrating renewable energy sources (solar, wind), which are known to vary daily and hourly. On the demand side, the concept of demand response is driving a need to better understand the impact of peak versus off-peak loading, with the objective of maximizing efficiency. In this study, we examine the case of electric power generation in Singapore, and aim to assess the half-hourly variation in associated average carbon dioxide emissions. Given the country’s serious push for clean energy solutions and a possibility of adopting carbon trading in the future, we feel the need to address the currently existing gap in research on daily CO₂ emissions patterns. By associating representative electricity generation data with the characterized fleet of power plants, half-hourly emissions are found to range between 415 and 455 kg CO₂ per MW h. Marginal emission factors show a fluctuating daily pattern between 390 and 800 kg CO₂/MW h. Policy makers able to work with real generation data can use this approach to understand the carbon footprint of short-term supply and demand interventions.     

CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria

Algeria is one of the most important CO₂ emitters among developing countries and the third among African countries. It pledged to curb carbon emissions by at least 7% by 2030. However, complying with this target may be a difficult task without compromising economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in Algeria, taking into account energy use, electricity consumption, exports and imports. The validity of the EKC hypothesis, throughout the period from 1970 to 2010, is tested by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model extended to introduce the break points. Results confirm the EKC for Algeria. Nevertheless, the turning point is reached for a very high GDP per capita value, indicating that economic growth in Algeria will continue to increase emissions. Results also indicate that an increase in energy use and electricity consumption increase CO₂ emissions, and that exports and imports affect them negatively and positively, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to promote renewable energies and energy efficiency policies. Regulatory reforms are needed to facilitate foreign investments with which to carry out these policies. Likewise, it may be appropriate to decrease subsides in energy prices to encourage energy efficiency.     

Electricity generation:: regulatory mechanisms to incentive renewable alternative energy sources in Brazil

The dissemination of renewable alternative energy sources for electricity generation has always being done through regulatory mechanisms, created and managed by the government of each country. Since these sources are more costly to generate, they have received incentives in response to worldwide environmental concerns, above all with regard to the reduction of CO₂ emissions. In Brazil, the electricity generation from renewable alternative sources is experiencing a new phase of growth. Until a short time ago, environmental appeal was the strongest incentive to these sources in Brazil but it was insufficient to attain its objective. With the electricity crisis and the rationing imposed in 2001, another important factor gained awareness: the need to diversify energy sources. Within this context, this work has the objective of analyzing the regulatory mechanisms recently developed to stimulate electricity generation from renewable alternative energy sources in Brazil by following the experience of other countries such as the United States, United Kingdom and Germany.     

Renewable energy policy performance in reducing CO2 emissions

The growth of fossil fuel power production and the consequent increase in the level of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have set off an alarm signal worldwide. Different policies have been implemented to incentivize the development of renewable energy sources with the goal of reducing CO₂ emissions. Notwithstanding the different policies contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the incentives provided for renewable energy, a relevant question is which of these is the most efficient. However, within the context of oligopolistic competition, the answer is very sensitive to the operation of the system. In particular, significant changes in the results can be observed when considering or ignoring reserve constraints.