Achieving 60% CO2 reductions within the UK energy system—Implications for the electricity generation sector

This paper explores how investment in the UK electricity generation sector can contribute to the UK goal of reducing CO₂ emissions with 60% by the year 2050 relative to the 1990 emissions. Considering likely development of the transportation sector and industry over the period, i.e. a continued demand growth and dependency on fossil fuels and electricity, the analysis shows that this implies CO₂ emission reductions of up to 90% by 2050 for the electricity sector. Emphasis is put on limitations imposed by the present system, described by a detailed database of existing power plants, together with meeting targets on renewable electricity generation (RES) including assumptions on gas acting as backup technology for intermittent RES. In particular, it is investigated to what extent new fossil fuelled and nuclear power is required to meet the year 2050 demand as specified by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP). In addition, the number of sites required for centralized electricity generation (large power plants) is compared with the present number of sites. A simulation model was developed for the analysis. The model applies the UK national targets on RES, taken from Renewable Obligation (RO) for 2010 and 2020 and potentials given by RCEP for 2050, and assumed technical lifetimes of the power plants of the existing system and thus, links this system with targets for the years 2010, 2020 and 2050.     

Learning from experience? The development of the Renewables Obligation in England and Wales 2002–2010

The UK has enviable renewable resources, both onshore (wind) and offshore (wind, wave and tidal) (The Offshore Valuation Group, 2010). The government has had policy mechanisms in place since 1990 to encourage these resources to be developed. The current mechanism, the Renewables Obligation (RO), was specifically designed to emphasise competition and therefore to fit in with the UK’s overall strategic approach to energy policy. However, as yet, it has not delivered the capacity that it was designed to do, and as a result the UK faces a difficult challenge in attempting to meet European-wide renewable energy targets for 2020, as well as longer term decarbonisation targets. This paper explores some of the major reasons why the RO has performed so poorly to date and considers the prospects for improvement up to 2020. It concludes that the strategic emphasis on competition in the support mechanisms has played a key role in limiting renewables development, but that the mechanism has changed significantly since it was introduced. However, these changes, together with proposals for electricity market reform, still do not address important elements of risk in comparison with a standard Feed In Tariff.     

英国可再生能源义务政策最新进展及对我国的启示

从90年代的非化石燃料义务政策到2002年以来的可再生能源义务政策,英国一直致力于通过市场配额机制推动可再生能源发展。但由于政策机制设计复杂,不确定性较大,以及罚金返还导致的市场投机等问题,无法拉动足够投资保障可再生能源快速发展。2011年,结合碳减排目标,英国政府计划推出一揽子电力市场改革方案(EMR),其重点之一是可再生能源义务逐步向差价合约固定电价政策转移。本文通过综述英国可再生能源义务政策演变历程,解析评价可再生能源证书市场运行机制和实施效果,并介绍英国电力市场改革方向,以及对我国的启示。     

Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain

In this paper, different electricity demand scenarios for Spain are presented. Population, income per capita, energy intensity and the contribution of electricity to the total energy demand have been taken into account in the calculations. Technological role of different generation technologies, i.e. coal, nuclear, renewable, combined cycle (CC), combined heat and power (CHP) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), are examined in the form of scenarios up to 2050. Nine future scenarios corresponding to three electrical demands and three options for new capacity: minimum cost of electricity, minimum CO₂ emissions and a criterion with a compromise between CO₂ and cost (CO₂-cost criterion) have been proposed. Calculations show reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2030, reaching a maximum CO₂ emission reduction of 90% in 2050 in an efficiency scenario with CCS and renewables. The contribution of CCS from 2030 is important with percentage values of electricity production around 22–28% in 2050. The cost of electricity (COE) increases up to 25% in 2030, and then this value remains approximately constant or decreases slightly.     

Stuck between a ROC and a hard place? Barriers to the take up of green energy in the UK

This paper examines the UK mechanisms for ensuring future investment in renewable energy through consumer adoption of green energy tariffs and the Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) system. Using a national survey and focus groups the stated willingness by UK customers to pay a premium for renewable or green energy and actual take up of such tariffs is assessed. Substantial differences between willingness to pay for and the adoption of green energy tariffs are reported. This disparity is linked to a range of factors including consumer confusion, lack of supply, complexities of constructing ‘green source’ tariffs under the ROC system and a lack of customer trust. It is concluded that the re-definition of the green energy market in favour of ‘green source’ tariffs, greater direct compliance with the Renewable Obligation by addressing supply constraints, and efforts in providing clearer information and choices for consumers via a compulsory green energy accreditation scheme are required if willing consumers’ are to contribute to investment in renewable energy.     

Additional renewable energy growth through small-scale community orientated energy policies

This paper summarises the energy policies that the UK Government has enacted in order to achieve its renewable targets by 2010. Current policies are designed primarily to support large-scale renewable projects through Renewable Obligation Certificates, Levy Exemption Certificates and capital grant schemes. Non-profit domestic and non-profit community renewable projects are also eligible for grant support. First-hand experience of privately owned renewable projects indicate that existing renewable policy is insufficient in its support of both small-scale and community-based profit oriented renewable energy (RE) schemes. Primary and secondary survey information suggests that people living in regions where RE will be situated may generally be inclined to support broader uses of renewables in these regions. Small-scale renewables can make a significant cumulative contribution to the RE mix. The results reported in this paper support the contention that the Government could go further towards approaching its targets through rural-focused changes to its energy incentive programmes.     

英国可再生能源义务法令介绍及实施效果分析

英国是采用可再生能源配额制度来促进可再生能源发展的国家之一。本文介绍了从2002年开始实施的英国可再生能源义务法令产生的背景、配额制度的主要特点和实施效果,对制度的优缺点进行了分析,说明配额制度的实施需要完善的电力市场机制做保障,它是有利于低成本的可再生能源技术的应用和有利于大企业发展的政策,但也存在增加融资难度、不公平竞争等问题。本文最后总结了该法令和配额制度对我国可再生能源政策制定的借鉴意义。     

The UK Renewable Energy programme

The UK Government has supported a programme on Renewable Energy since 1975. In 1988 progress was reviewed and this led to some redirection of the programme with greater emphasis on the commercial development of renewables, as published in Energy Paper 55.The climate in which Renewable Energy operates has been influenced recently by a number of factors including privatisation of the UK electricity supply industry, when the Government introduced the New Fossil Fuel Obligation and publication of the Government's 1990 White Paper on the Environment which noted that the Government is working towards a figure of new renewable energy generating capacity of 1000 MW by 2000.The paper aims to give an overview of the present state of development of the renewable technologies in the UK and to discuss some of the factors - technical and non-technical - which will affect their likely future development.     

An over painted oriental arts: Evaluation of the development of the Chinese renewable energy market using the wind power market as a model

China is now the largest CO₂ polluter in the world. However, the renewable energy policies in China are controversial and one can easily draw the wrong conclusions that Chinese renewable energy development has taken off from a surface assessment of the policies. By investigating and summarizing the first-hand experiences of participation in the Chinese renewable market (mainly wind farm development) in the past five years, this paper provides another dimension of policy analysis and independent review of the current issues facing the market. An investigation of policy changes and consequences clearly demonstrates the transformation of the Chinese renewable market. The domestic manufacturing quality and unprofessional design of wind farms made most developers’ financial returns unrealistic in the wind market. Despite the difficulties and inconsistency in the system, China is tackling environmental issues seriously and heading in the right direction. With centrally controlled management, the Chinese strategies do not have to be justified financially. It is envisioned by the authors that re-organizing over 70 existing Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is unavoidable. Establishment of an internal renewable market, such as Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) system in the UK whose effectiveness is another subject of debate, would be an effective means by which the Chinese government in their post-2012 strategy could make the wind market more financially viable.     

UK RE Policy : More questions than answers?

The UK renewable energy sector is riddled with questions — many of them still remain unanswered. How is the UK going to meet its 10% renewable energy target? Are the various policies, that have recently been announced, going to be enough to achieve this target? What is the interaction between these different policies and will they work in tandem to develop this sector? What of the Renewables Obligation, Climate Change Levy and New Electricity Trading Arrangement? Do their effects support, hinder or simply cancel each other out? And what of green electricity? Is it going to be a passing phase - a product that will soon cease to exist for domestic customers as non-domestic interests clamour to buy existing ‘stocks’ to avoid the Climate Change Levy? Is the Climate Change Levy a means for the supply industry to meet its 10% renewables obligation as they have a market to offset the cost? And what approach is the electricity supply industry taking to the combination of policies they are having to face imminently? These are some of the many questions and confusions surrounding the UK's renewable energy market. In this article, Judith Lipp, researcher at the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute, attempts to make sense of this minefield of questions and uncertainties.     

Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

A model for the development of a power production system in Greece,Part I: Where RES do not meet EU targets

This paper studies the electricity production system of the Greek Interconnected Electric Production System using a model created with the software package WASP-IV. The period of study is from 2009 to 2030. It consists of three scenarios using three different criteria: energy, environmental and economic. The three scenarios are the business as usual, the lignite and the natural gas. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is carried out for the annual growth rate of electricity consumption and load demand. The paper examines how the three criteria change, when there are no other energy sources beyond those already in use (lignite, oil, natural gas, biomass, solar, wind and hydropower) with no CO₂ capture policies and with the electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources not to reach the targets of the European Union for 2020. In a second paper, three other scenarios examine production with the Renewable Energy Sources to reach the targets of the European Union for 2020.     

Model‐based approach for planning renewable energy transition in a resource‐constrained electricity system—A case study from India

Globally, electricity systems are going through transitions. The contributions from renewable energy‐based power generation, both in installed capacity and electricity generation, are moving from marginal to the mainstream. India is not an exception; it is aggressively pursuing this transition by fixing steep targets for renewable capacity additions. While the cost of renewable energy sources is expected to fast reach grid parity, the policy interventions play a critical role in ramping up the efforts to support the proposed investments in renewable capacity and renewable electricity generation. In this respect, this research attempts to analyze the effectiveness of renewable energy policies such as Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and Renewable Energy Certificate mechanisms in tapping the renewable energy potential in India. We propose a mixed‐integer linear programming model‐based approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the above interventions in the Indian context. The model is developed and validated as a low carbon electricity planning tool to optimally meet the dynamic electricity demand and RPO targets as well as to manage the unmet total electricity demand and RPO targets. The Karnataka state electricity system (a state in south India) is chosen as a case study. The results suggest that Karnataka Electricity System is moving toward a sustainable renewable energy future even without any support from nonsolar Renewable Energy Certificate policy. However, policy interventions are critical for optimally utilizing the solar generation capacity.     

Governance and legitimacy aspects of the UK biofuel carbon and sustainability reporting system

Biofuel policy has become highly contentious in Europe. In this paper we discuss the governance and legitimacy aspects of the carbon and sustainability system of the UK Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), both before and after implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive. RTFO certification is of a meta-type, being built upon existing certification and labelling schemes, each of which are more or less contested by NGOs. Despite the RTFO being based on these non-state initiatives, so far the concerns of environment and development NGOs and others have not been given serious expression in regulatory terms. Indeed, biofuel policy development in the UK has arguably been unduly non-responsive to critical opinion, given the limited scientific base on biofuel impacts and the reliance of RTFO sustainability certification on non-state actors and schemes. Drawing on documentary evidence, interviews and three sets of literatures – co-production of regulation; post-normal science; and legitimacy of non-state certification and labelling processes – we suggest that until concerned voices are given a stronger expression in UK and EC biofuel policy development, the policy cannot yet be said to have achieved a wide social mandate.     

The role of energy efficiency in reducing Scottish and UK CO2 emissions

In 2003, the UK government launched its long-anticipated White Paper on energy, the centrepieces of which were ambitious targets for the production of electricity from renewable technologies and the long-term aspiration of a 60% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In the White Paper it was recognised that such a dramatic reduction in emissions will require significant changes in the way in which energy is produced and used. However there has been a general failure to recognise the fact that in order to meet emissions targets, the UK will have to significantly reduce its energy consumption; this is not helped by the general misconception in the UK that reductions in CO₂ emissions will occur simply by increasing the production of electricity from renewable sources.

Specifically, this paper highlights the current trends in renewables deployment and energy demand, with a specific focus on Scotland, where the authorities have set more ambitious renewables targets than the rest of the UK. As will be demonstrated in this paper, without energy demand reduction, the deployment of renewables alone will not be sufficient to curtail growth in UK CO₂ emissions. This is illustrated using a case study of the Scottish housing sector; whilst this case study is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance. The paper will also address the magnitude of energy savings required to bring about a reduction in emissions and assesses the status of the policies and technologies that could help bring such reductions about.     

Grid-connected renewables,storage and the UK electricity market

This article is mainly a counterpoint to an article by Swift-Hook in the journal of Renewable Energy titled “Grid-connected intermittent renewables are the last to be stored”. It also describes the four main distinct UK markets where electrical energy and services are traded, in order to provide a context for the discussion of renewable energy and energy storage in the UK electricity system. In Swift-Hook’s article it was argued that “grid-connected intermittent renewables like wind energy will never be stored unless nothing else is available” and that “storage is counter-productive for fuel saving”. We, however, find evidence that “grid-connected intermittent renewables” have been, and will continue to be stored when it suits the “UK market” to do so. Furthermore, Swift-Hook’s article neglects the potential wider benefits that storage offers to UK energy policy’s goals, in terms of reduced emissions (when used in conjunction with renewables) and enhanced security of supply.     

Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic,environment, and adequacy of energy sources

This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for a long-term generation mix in Indonesia. The objective of this work is to assess the economic, environment, and adequacy of local energy sources. The model includes two competing objective functions to seek the lowest cost of generation and the lowest CO₂ emissions while considering technology diffusion. The scenarios include the use of fossil reserves with or without the constraints of the reserve to production ratio and exports. The results indicate that Indonesia should develop all renewable energy and requires imported coal and natural gas. If all fossil resources were upgraded to reserves, electricity demand in 2050 could be met by domestic energy sources. The maximum share of renewable energy that can be achieved in 2050 is 33% with and 80% without technology diffusion. The least cost optimization produces lower generation costs than the least CO₂ emissions, as well as the combined scenario. Total CO₂ emissions in 2050 are five to six times as large as current emissions. The least CO₂ emissions scenario can reduce almost half of the CO₂ emissions of the least cost scenario by 2050. The proposed multi-objective optimization model leads some optimal solutions for a more sustainable electricity system.     

Bioenergy production and use in Italy: Recent developments,perspectives and potential

The renewable energy policies in the European Union have already led to a significant progress; the energy mix should further change until 2020. Italy is planning to meet the 2020 targets on renewable energies also thanks to a relevant paradigm shift in renewable energy exploitation. Indeed, in 2005 the sector where RES were more present in Italy was electricity production with 203 PJ of renewable origin, while in the heating and cooling sector renewable energy penetration was limited to 80 PJ. On the contrary, in 2020 heating and cooling is expected to absorb the highest amount of renewable energy (438 PJ) with renewable electricity expected to count for 356 PJ. Bioenergy, a renewable energy resource particularly suitable for electricity, heating & cooling and in transport, will be at the core of this sectorial shift in renewable energy production and use and is expected to become the dominant form of RES before 2020. The paper makes a detailed analysis of the recent developments and expected evolution of the Italian energy mix in next decade. It provides an overview of the Italian bioenergy sector in comparison with other Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and with leading countries in the European Union with a special focus on the production, exploitation and potentials on the basis of the analysis of the Italian National Renewable Action Plan.     

Spatial variation of emissions impacts due to renewable energy siting decisions in the Western U.S. under high-renewable penetration scenarios

One of the policy goals motivating programs to increase renewable energy investment is that renewable electric generation will help reduce emissions of CO₂ as well as emissions of conventional pollutants (e.g., SO₂ and NO_x). As a policy instrument, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) encourage investments in wind, solar and other generation sources with the goal of reducing air emissions from electricity production. Increased electricity production from wind turbines is expected to displace electricity production from fossil-fired plants, thus reducing overall system emissions. We analyze the emissions impacts of incremental investments in utility-scale wind power, on the order of 1 GW beyond RPS goals, in the Western United States using a utility-scale generation dispatch model that incorporates the impacts of transmission constraints. We find that wind investment in some locations leads to slight increases in overall emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x. The location of wind farms influences the environmental impact by changing the utilization of transmission assets, which affects the overall utilization of power generation sources and thus system-level emissions. Our results suggest that renewable energy policy beyond RPS targets should be carefully crafted to ensure consistency with environmental goals.     

The potential for renewable energy in industrial applications

To date, insufficient attention has been paid to the potential of renewable energy resources in industrial applications. Our analysis suggests that up to 21% of final energy demand and feedstock-use in the manufacturing industry sector could be of renewable origin by 2050, a five-fold increase over current levels in absolute terms. This estimate is considerably higher than other recent global scenario studies. In addition, if a 50% share of renewables in power generation is assumed, the share of direct and indirect renewable energy use rises to 31% in 2050. Our analysis further suggests that bioenergy and biofeedstocks can constitute three-quarters of the direct renewables use in this sector by 2050. The remainder is roughly evenly divided between solar heating and heat pumps. The potential for solar cooling is considered to be limited.While low-temperature solar process heat can reach cost-effectiveness today in locations with good insolation, some bioenergy applications will require a CO₂ price even on the longer term. Biomass feedstock for synthetic organic materials will require a CO₂ price up to USD 100/t CO₂, or even more if embodied carbon is not considered properly in CO₂ accounts. Future fossil fuel prices and bioenergy prices in addition to the development of feedstock commodity markets for biomass will be critical. Decision makers are recommended to pay more attention to the potential for renewables in industry. Finally, we propose the development of a detailed technology roadmap to explore this potential further and discuss key issues that need to be elaborated in such a framework.