Measuring the social value of nuclear energy using contingent valuation methodology

As one of the promising energy sources for the next few decades, nuclear energy receives more attention than before as environmental issues become more important and the supply of fossil fuels becomes unstable. One of the reasons for this attention is based on the rapid innovation of nuclear technology which solves many of its technological constraints and safety issues. However, regardless of these rapid innovations, social acceptance for nuclear energy has been relatively low and unchanged. Consequently, the social perception has often been an obstacle to the development and execution of nuclear policy requiring enormous subsidies which are not based on the social value of nuclear energy. Therefore, in this study, we estimate the social value of nuclear energy-consumers’ willingness-to-pay for nuclear energy—using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) and suggest that the social value of nuclear energy increases approximately 68.5% with the provision of adequate information about nuclear energy to the public. Consequently, we suggest that the social acceptance management in nuclear policy development is important along with nuclear technology innovation.     

Effect of the Fukushima nuclear disaster on global public acceptance of nuclear energy

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has significantly changed public attitudes toward nuclear energy. It is important to understand how this change has occurred in different countries before the global community revises existing nuclear policies. This study examines the effect of the Fukushima disaster on public acceptance of nuclear energy in 42 countries. We find that the operational experience of nuclear power generation which has significantly affected positive public opinion about nuclear energy became considerably negative after the disaster, suggesting fundamental changes in public acceptance regardless of the level of acceptance before the disaster. In addition, contrary to our expectation, the proportion of nuclear power generation is positively and significantly related to public acceptance of nuclear energy after the Fukushima accident and government pressure on media content led to a greater decrease in the level of public acceptance after the accident. Nuclear energy policymakers should consider the varied factors affecting public acceptance of nuclear energy in each country depending on its historical, environmental, and geographical circumstances before they revise nuclear policy in response to the Fukushima accident.     

What determines urban households’ willingness to pay for CO2 emission reductions in Turkey: A contingent valuation survey

This paper explores Turkish urban households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for CO₂ emission reductions expected to result from improvements in power production. A face-to-face questionnaire, with a Contingent valuation (CV) module prepared using the double-bounded dichotomous choice elicitation framework, was administered to 2422 respondents representative of urban Turkey—a developing country with low but rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The determinants of WTP were identified by considering not only the impact of standard socio-economic factors but also the effects of environmental knowledge, attitudes and behaviour, the relevance of the identity of the collection agent (national versus international institutions) in terms of trust people have towards them, and the degree of perceived participation of others in the realization of the project. Our study confirms the existing literature in demonstrating that WTP figures reported by young and educated people that are active on environmental issues, and who also possess material security and environmental knowledge, are more likely to be high. However, their willingness to make contributions is hampered significantly by their belief that their fellow citizens will not contribute and the general lack of trust in institutions. Overall, this study may be taken as a call to eliminate governance-related uncertainties in climate change deals.     

Nuclear power,climate change and energy security: Exploring British public attitudes

Public attitudes towards nuclear power in the UK have historically been deeply divided, but as concern about climate change and energy security has exerted an increasing influence on British energy policy, nuclear power has been reframed as a low-carbon technology. Previous research has suggested that a significant proportion of people may ‘reluctantly accept’ nuclear power as a means of addressing the greater threat of climate change. Drawing on the results of a national British survey (n=1822), the current study found that attitudes towards nuclear remain divided, with only a minority expressing unconditional acceptance. In general, people who expressed greater concern about climate change and energy security and possessed higher environmental values were less likely to favour nuclear power. However, when nuclear power was given an explicit ‘reluctant acceptance’ framing – allowing people to express their dislike for nuclear power alongside their conditional support – concerns about climate change and energy security became positive predictors of support for nuclear power. These findings suggest that concern about climate change and energy security will only increase acceptance of nuclear power under limited circumstances—specifically once other (preferred) options have been exhausted.     

The role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes

The article aims to evaluate the potential role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. Seeking to achieve this target the analysis of possible energy sector development scenarios in Lithuania was performed and CO₂ emission projections for these scenarios were developed. The analysis of post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures was performed and the requirements of these possible climate change mitigation regimes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Lithuania were assessed. Based on these assessments the potential role of new nuclear power in Lithuania was identified under various future climate change mitigation regimes.     

The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000–2100).     

Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed.     

The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming

Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower overall environmental impacts. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) as well as biofuels technologies have been accelerating rapidly during the past decades, both in technology performance and cost-competitiveness — and they are increasingly gaining market share. These technology options offer many positive attributes, but also have unique cost/benefit trade-offs, such as land-use competition for bioresources and variability for wind and solar electric generation technologies. This paper presents a brief summary of status, recent progress, some technological highlights for RETs and biofuels, and an analysis of critical issues that must be addressed for RETs to meet a greater share of the global energy requirements and lower GHG emissions.     

Future nuclear energy policy—the West German enquete commission

The fast breeder prototype SNR 300, under construction, was repeatedly one focus of the nuclear energy debate in West Germany. As part of a political bargaining process the parliamentary enquete commission ‘Future nuclear energy policy’ was established consisting of members of parliament and scientific experts. It was to propose recommendations on how to deal with the fast breeder reactor in the future. But also, in a wider context, it was to assess the pros and cons of different energy policy options and to find a viable way out of the nuclear stalemate. Jobst Conrad describes the genesis, working process, recommendations, procedures and political context of the commission and discusses its significance for and probable impacts on the energy controversy.     

The socio-political economy of nuclear energy in China and India

This article investigates forms of social, political, and economic organization conducive to nuclear power expansion. We begin by developing a theoretical framework of nuclear socio-political economy based primarily upon the evolution of nuclear energy in France. This framework posits that (1) strong state involvement in guiding economic development, (2) centralization of national energy planning, (3) campaigns to link technological progress to a national revitalization, (4) influence of technocratic ideology on policy decisions, (5) subordination of challenges to political authority, and (6) low levels of civic activism are influential factors in supporting development of nuclear power. Accordingly, we seek to verify the causal properties of these six catalysts for nuclear power expansion in two nations – India and China – that are on the brink of becoming major nuclear powers. We validate our framework by confirming the presence of the six catalysts during the initial nuclear power developmental periods in each country. We also apply our framework as a predictive tool by considering how present conditions in the two nations will impact nuclear power development trends. We conclude by highlighting the emergence of a potential seventh catalyst – the influence of greenhouse gas emission abatement policy on nuclear power development.     

Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO₂-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.     

U.S. state policies for renewable energy: Context and effectiveness

Over the past decade, state policies on renewable energy have been on the rise in the U.S., providing states with various options for encouraging the generation of renewable electricity. Two promising policies, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Mandatory Green Power Option (MGPO), have been implemented in many states but the evidence about their effectiveness is mixed. In this paper, we argue that recognizing the natural, social, and policy context under which MGPO and RPS are adopted is necessary in order to measure their true effectiveness. This is because the context rather than the policy might lead to positive outcomes and there is the possibility for sample bias. When controlling for the context in which the policies are implemented, we find that RPS has a negative impact on investments in renewable capacity. However, we find that investor-owned utilities seem to respond more positively to RPS mandates than publicly owned utilities. By contrast, MGPO appears to have a significant effect on installed renewable capacity for all utilities regardless of the context in which it is implemented.     

Estimation of potential impact of climate change on the heating energy use of existing houses

This paper presents a method for the estimation of potential impact of climate change on the heating energy use of existing houses. The proposed method is based on the house energy signature that is developed from historical energy use data. The method can be applied to any individual house, by using the utility bills from the owner, or can be used by utility companies, which have databases of recorded energy use for large number of houses. The second case can lead to accurate estimates of potential impact of climate change within a city, a province or a country. A case study of a house in Montreal (Canada) is presented, and the results obtained with different sampling rates of data are discussed. The method is also applied to a sample of 11 existing houses, and the results show the reduction of heating energy use between 7.9% and 16.9% due to climate change between the present period (1961–1990) and the future period (2040–2069).     

Communication on energy An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, ‘Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025’ notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting.     

An assessment of Turkey’s nuclear energy policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience

Nuclear energy, which was once considered as the fuel of future and was abandoned after Chernobyl accident, has emerged recently in developed and developing countries as an option to combat climate change, to secure supply and to achieve sustainable development. Turkey, a developing country where most of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels and which has energy security problems, has adopted a new legislation giving financial incentives for nuclear power plant construction, along with a tender in 2008. However, the tender ended in a stalemate after the Council of State’s decision in November 2009. An evaluation of Turkey’s nuclear policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience gives us an explanation as to why Turkey failed in the last tender. Basically it was due to lack of a long term nuclear energy policy that comprehends social, economical, technical and political aspects of nuclear energy. Thus, it is argued that Turkey can benefit from nuclear energy if it formulates a comprehensive nuclear energy plan clearly interwoven with its economic development plans, establishes a proper legal framework and has domestic industry participation in nuclear technology development.     

Uncertainty in land-use change and forestry sector mitigation options for global warming: Plantation silviculture versus avoided deforestation

How land-use change and forestry sector options can be used to mitigate global warming will depend on a variety of pending decisions regarding interpretation of the Kyoto Protocol, including treatment of uncertainty. In tropical forest countries, the allocation of effort between plantation silviculture and reduction of deforestation would be influenced by the stringency of requirements regarding certainty. Slowing deforestation offers much greater potential benefits, but the certainty associated with these is much lower than in the case of plantations. In the Brazilian case, deforestation avoidance could produce carbon benefits worth 6–45 times as much as the destructive ranching and logging uses to which the forest is now being converted. Capturing the potential value of carbon benefits from avoided deforestation will depend on increasing our understanding of the deforestation process and consequent ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with the effects of deforestation-avoidance measures. It will also depend on whether carbon credits are defined in terms of a maximum level of uncertainty.     

Climate sensitivity of marine energy

Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed—as a proxy for wider climate change—influence wind and wave energy production and economics.     

The implications of the historical decline in US energy intensity for long-run CO2 emission projections

This paper analyzes the influence of the long-run decline in US energy intensity on projections of energy use and carbon emissions to the year 2050. We build on our own recent work which decomposes changes in the aggregate US energy–GDP ratio into shifts in sectoral composition (structural change) and adjustments in the energy demand of individual industries (intensity change), and identifies the impact on the latter of price-induced substitution of variable inputs, shifts in the composition of capital and embodied and disembodied technical progress. We employ a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy to analyze the implications of these findings for future energy use and carbon emissions. Comparison of the simulation results against projections of historical trends in GDP, energy use and emissions reveals that the range of values for the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) conventionally used in CGE models is consistent with the effects of structural changes at the sub-sector level, rather than disembodied technological change. Even so, our results suggest that US emissions may well grow faster in the future than in the recent past.     

Renewable energy policy in Turkey with the new legal regulations

Since the energy crises in the 1970’s, public and private decision makers are considering how to achieve a sustainable transition from fossil fuel based energy to sustainable and clean energies - namely renewable energies. Combined with the improvement of energy efficiency and the rational use of energy, renewable energy can provide everything fossil fuels currently offer in terms of heating and cooling, electricity generation and transportation. Renewable energy technologies posses many long term benefits including energy security, job creation, business opportunities, sustainable development and prevention of global warming.Turkey’s population is growing at an annual rate of 1.04%. If Turkey uses only traditional energy sources, it simply will not have enough energy capacity for its population. Renewable energy sources have the potential to make a large contribution to Turkey’s sustainable and independent energy future.Turkey aims to utilize its energy potential, including from renewable sources in a cost-effective manner. Turkey targets the share of renewable resources in electricity generation to be at least 30% by 2023 has in its 2009 Electricity Market and Security of Supply Strategy. Positive achievements have been obtained in renewable energy development and manufacturing in Turkey over the past decade. The renewable energy related legislation has been intensified. To meet its 30% target, the current promotion mechanism for renewable sources of electricity relies on feed-in tariffs for different renewable energy sources. Large hydropower is already competitive to conventional fossil-based electricity, so feed-in tariffs in the new RE Law are set to facilitate expanding the deployment of other, less mature renewable energy technologies.     

Application of nuclear energy for environmentally friendly hydrogen generation

It is universally admitted that hydrogen is one of the best energy media and its demand will increase greatly in the near future. However, little hydrogen exists naturally, so that how to generate hydrogen without bringing forth much CO₂${}_2$ will be very important research subject. Hydrogen generation from water using nuclear energy is one of the solutions for this problem. Especially, the high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) has a possibility to generate hydrogen economically compared with other types of nuclear reactors. As for long-lived radioactive waste to be generated by nuclear reactors, it is expected to significantly reduce its burden to the human environment by applying transmutation technologies. This report describes the feature of the hydrogen generation with HTGR and the development of the accelerator-driven subcritical system to reduce radioactive waste ongoing at JAEA.