Public preferences for alternative electricity mixes in post-Fukushima Japan

Using representative household survey data from Japan after the Fukushima accident, we estimate peoples' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuels in electricity generation. We rely on random parameter econometric techniques to capture various degrees of heterogeneity between the respondents, and use detailed regional information to assess how WTP varies with the distance to both the nearest nuclear power plant and to Fukushima. Compared to fossil fuels, we find a positive WTP for renewable and a negative WTP for nuclear fuels. These effects, in absolute terms, increase with the proximity to Fukushima.     

Eliciting public support for greening the electricity mix using random parameter techniques

With its commitment to double the share of renewable fuels in electricity generation to at least 30% by 2020, the German government has embarked on a potentially costly policy course whose public support remains an open empirical question. Building on household survey data, in this paper we assess people's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for various fuel mixes in electricity generation, and capture preference heterogeneity among respondents using random parameter techniques. Based on our estimates, we trace out the locus that links the premia charged for specific electricity mixes with the fraction of people supporting the policy. Albeit people's WTP for a certain fuel mix in electricity generation is positively correlated to the renewable fuel share, our results imply that the current surcharge effectively exhausts the financial scope for subsidizing renewable fuels.     

Nuclear power,climate change and energy security: Exploring British public attitudes

Public attitudes towards nuclear power in the UK have historically been deeply divided, but as concern about climate change and energy security has exerted an increasing influence on British energy policy, nuclear power has been reframed as a low-carbon technology. Previous research has suggested that a significant proportion of people may ‘reluctantly accept’ nuclear power as a means of addressing the greater threat of climate change. Drawing on the results of a national British survey (n=1822), the current study found that attitudes towards nuclear remain divided, with only a minority expressing unconditional acceptance. In general, people who expressed greater concern about climate change and energy security and possessed higher environmental values were less likely to favour nuclear power. However, when nuclear power was given an explicit ‘reluctant acceptance’ framing – allowing people to express their dislike for nuclear power alongside their conditional support – concerns about climate change and energy security became positive predictors of support for nuclear power. These findings suggest that concern about climate change and energy security will only increase acceptance of nuclear power under limited circumstances—specifically once other (preferred) options have been exhausted.     

Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price.     

Do people put more value on electricity produced using waste-to-hydrogen? Findings from South Korea

South Korea is pushing for the waste-to-hydrogen (W2H) project to reduce greenhouse gases and utilize plastic and vinyl waste (PVW) while reducing environmental pollution from PVW. This research seeks to estimate additional willingness to pay (WTP) for electricity produced using W2H over that produced using traditional power sources, such as coal and nuclear. For the purpose of the estimation, a contingent valuation survey of 1000 people was performed employing the closed-ended one-and-one-half-bound question during November 2020. A spike model is utilized to reflect zero WTP values that a number of interviewees reported in the survey. Several factors affecting the additional WTP were also analyzed to derive implications. The average WTP was computed as KRW 27.7 (USD 0.025) per kWh with statistical significance, which reaches 26.4% of the electricity price. One more point to note is that 54.3% of the respondents stated a zero WTP as they thought that W2H is of no value to them or were worried that the W2H project could increase electricity bills.     

Fukushima's impact on the European power sector: The key role of CCS technologies

The accident in Fukushima, Japan, in March 2011 has reactivated the discussion on how to meet ambitious climate mitigation objectives as some European countries reconsider the contribution of nuclear power in their energy mix. This study evaluates the impact of nuclear power reduction in Europe on the electricity mix under carbon emission reduction scenarios while considering the availability of carbon capture and storage technological options (CCS). The potential cost of carbon reduction is also addressed using the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR. The results suggest that CCS technologies constitute an interesting option in a case of stringent climate targets and limited nuclear electricity. However, the unavailability of CCS technologies induces a significant increase in carbon marginal cost and energy system cost to achieve the climate policy.     

Willingness to pay for green electricity in Korea: A contingent valuation study

Green electricity is energy that is generated from renewable energy sources such as solar power, wind power, small-scale hydroelectric power, tidal power, and biomass power. These sources mostly do not produce pollutants and are considered environmentally friendly. However, considering the current state of technology, they are more costly. Government should take visible actions to compensate for the increased production costs. This paper attempts to apply a contingent valuation (CV) method to obtain at least a preliminary evaluation of the benefits that ensue from the introduction of the policy that raises the percentage of green electricity consumption from 0.2% of the total electricity supply to 7% by 2011. Overall, the CV survey was successful in eliciting the willingness to pay (WTP) for green electricity considering that the CV method operated within respondents’ abilities to answer and the WTP estimates were statistically significant. The monthly mean WTP estimates from parametric and non-parametric methods were KRW 1681 (USD 1.8) and KRW 2072 (USD 2.2), respectively. The estimates of the annual benefits to relevant residents amounted to KRW 150.5 billion (USD 157.5 million) and KRW 185.6 billion (USD 194.2 million), respectively.     

Supplier choice and WTP for electricity attributes in an emerging market: The role of perceived past experience,environmental concern and energy saving behavior

This study analyzes customers' preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for certain service attributes in an electricity supplier choice context. Specifically, a stated preference choice experiment is conducted in the Canary Islands' residential market where limited competition exists. Preferences for different electricity suppliers and three level-of-service attributes are investigated, namely, supply reliability, share of renewable energies and availability of a complementary energy audit service. The results might be interpreted as an indication of different aspects new firms need to consider if they plan to enter in the market. There is an opportunity for new companies to establish in the market, though evidence of brand loyalty to the current company and/or significant switching costs are also found, especially in the case of older people. Regarding the estimated WTP, several results should be highlighted. First, customers who have experienced more serious outages in the past tend to show a higher WTP to reduce the outage frequency. Second, highly-educated respondents, those who state a great concern for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and those who carry out energy saving actions in their homes exhibit a larger WTP for renewable energies. This empirical evidence provides useful information for authorities responsible for energy policy design.     

Australia: Approaching an energy crossroads

This paper considers energy policy in Australia in the context of its considerable energy resources, climate change and a recent change in government. It examines the possible paths that future energy use and policy in Australia could take, including published projections based largely on a “business as usual” approach and projections based on a dramatic shift towards more efficient use of energy and renewable energy technologies. It also considers the various factors affecting future policy direction, including energy security, the advocacy in Australia for establishing nuclear electricity generation and other parts of the nuclear fuel-cycle, responses to climate change, and carbon sequestration. It concludes that while the Australian Government is currently reluctant to move away from a dependence on coal, and unlikely to adopt nuclear energy generation, a low-emissions future without waiting for the deployment of carbon capture and storage and without resorting to nuclear power is within reach. However, in the face of strong pressure from interest groups associated with energy intensive industry, making the necessary innovations will require further growth of community concern about climate change, and the development of greater understanding of the feasibility of employing low carbon-emissions options.     

Comparative assessment of future power generation technologies based on carbon price development

The long-term assessment of new electricity generation was performed for various long-run policy scenarios taking into account two main criteria: private costs and external GHG emission costs. Such policy oriented power generation technologies assessment based on carbon price and private costs of technologies can provide information on the most attractive future electricity generation technologies taking into account climate change mitigation targets and GHG emission reduction commitments for world regions.Analysis of life cycle GHG emissions and private costs of the main future electricity generation technologies performed in this paper indicated that biomass technologies except large scale straw combustion technologies followed by nuclear have the lowest life cycle GHG emission. Biomass IGCC with CO₂ capture has even negative life cycle GHG emissions. The cheapest future electricity generation technologies in terms of private costs in long-term perspective are: nuclear and hard coal technologies followed by large scale biomass combustion and biomass CHPs. The most expensive technologies in terms of private costs are: oil and natural gas technologies. As the electricity generation technologies having the lowest life cycle GHG emissions are not the cheapest one in terms of private costs the ranking of technologies in terms of competitiveness highly depend on the carbon price implied by various policy scenarios integrating specific GHG emission reduction commitments taken by countries and climate change mitigation targets.     

The political economy of international green certificate markets

This paper analyzes the political economy of establishing bilateral trade in green certificate markets as one step towards harmonization of European green electricity support systems. We outline some of the economic principles of an integrated bilateral green certificates market, and then discuss a number of issues that are deemed to be critical for the effectiveness, stability and legitimacy of such a market. By drawing on some of the lessons of the fairly recent intentions to integrate a future green certificate market in Norway with the existing Swedish one, we highlight, exemplify and discuss some critical policy implementation and design issues. These include, for instance, the system's connection to climate policy targets, the role of other support schemes and the definition of what green electricity technologies should be included. Furthermore, the establishment of an international market presumes that the benefits of renewable power (e.g., its impacts on the environment, diversification of the power mix, self-sufficiency, etc.) are approached and valued from an international perspective rather than from a national one, thus implying lesser emphasis on, for instance, employment and regional development impacts. A bilateral green certificate system thus faces a number of important policy challenges, but at the same time it could provide important institutional learning effects that can be useful for future attempts aiming at achieving greater policy integration in the European renewable energy sector.     

美国核能辩论现状与政策趋向分析

美国国内在是否利用核能发电这个问题上一直存在争议,拥核派和反核派的分歧主要是在核电成本是否高、核能是否安全以及核能是否属于清洁能源等方面。受日本核危机影响,美国核能辩论的重点转向核能安全,主要围绕核电站抵御自然灾害的能力、核废料储存、是否应该新建核电站以及延长现有核电站运营期限等问题展开。由于历次重大核事故后,新建核电站成本势必上升,加之美国各州新建核电站积极性不高,国际大环境也不利于拥核派,同时核能面临化石能源和可再生能源的激烈竞争,因此短期内美国核能开发步伐势必会放慢。但是从长期看,核能仍将是美国能源战略的重点之一,究其原因,发展核能是美国能源安全与经济发展的需要,也是应对气候变化的需要,另外,拥核派的积极游说和公关行动、反核派内部立场出现分化以及日本核危机的长期影响有限等也都是其原因之一。我国是世界上在建核反应堆数量最多的国家,但是围绕核能的公开辩论却很少,这不利于我国核能的开发。核能的辩论过程,也是核能知识普及的过程,只有对核能有深入全面的认识,才能减少对核能非理性的恐惧。我国绝不能因为一次核事故而改变战略方向,而应在吸取教训的基础上,在保证绝对安全的前提下,继续发展核能。     

福岛核危机后日本新能源格局的转变及其影响与启示

日本新能源的发展趋势会对全球的能源变革产生巨大作用。从第一次石油危机至今,日本的新能源无论是总量还是在能源结构中所占的份额都有了质的飞跃,这不仅是因为新能源的技术和设备有了长足进步,更重要的是来自日本政府能源政策的支持,但2011年的福岛核危机将彻底改变日本的能源格局。日本政府宣布将中止核电发展计划,可再生能源将成为下一步能源发展战略的核心。然而日本的规模化可再生能源过程也面临着如何弥补核电站退役后的电力缺口、国土面积狭小、电网网架薄弱以及因电价过高导致的巨额补贴费用等诸多困难。与此同时也给日本带来了新的发展机遇,可再生能源将成为日本经济新的增长点。日本核危机使全球核能遭遇低潮期,而可再生能源将迎来新的发展机遇,这有可能催生第三次产业革命。同时也认识到,能源来源的过于单一化使得能源风险加剧,需要建立健全的、快速的能源应急机制,加大国际间能源合作,突破能源技术壁垒。此次日本核危机促使中国反思自身的核电发展策略。中国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,当前应抓住这一发展机遇,加大产品技术含量,切勿盲目扩大生产规模,同时拓展非主流型可再生能源生产设备市场。政府要把握整体布局,避免出现区域性生产"过度"。     

英国电力改革20年引发的思考

1990年4月开始的英国电力体制改革是按照新自由主义理论来设计的,其主要内容是:所有权从国家向私人投资者转变;雇员向继承企业的转移;引入竞争性市场;形成独立管制系统。世界银行1992年政策报告介绍了美、英等国的电力体制改革经验之后,对发展中国家的电力改革提出了5项原则规定,这些规定实际上要求发展中国家按照美、英等国的电力体制改革模式进行改革。对于中国电力体制改革是否应采用英美的单一购买机制模式存在着争议。美国加州2000年采用单一购买机制模式进行的电力改革酿成了电力危机。英国经调查研究,决定从2001年3月起用新电力交易制度替代强制电力库,形成了英国电力体制改革的第二波。这使人们认识到,在英国已被认为不可行的单一购买机制不能继续照抄照搬。最近20年,世界能源发生了变化。英国原来发起的竞争性电力体制改革只能适应以化石能源发电为主的市场,为了应对气候变化,要实行节能减排,发展低碳能源发电,为此英国正在酝酿第三波新的电力体制改革。回顾英国20年的电力体制改革,我们应思考:为什么英国在20年里不断地调查研究,不断地创新电力体制改革模式?而我们在这20年里只是跟着英国亦步亦趋,不能创新电力体制改革模式呢?     

Assessment of Korean customers’ willingness to pay with RPS

To increase the use of renewable energy, the Korean government will introduce the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) in 2012. The RPS places responsibility for extra renewable energy costs on the consumers and allows price competition among different renewable sources. Accordingly, this study analyzes through the contingent valuation (CV) the willingness of Korean households to pay more for electricity generated by wind, photovoltaic (PV), and hydropower. Our empirical results show that, although the willingness to pay (or WTP) was highest for wind power and lowest for hydropower, the differences in WTP among the renewable sources were statistically insignificant. This suggests that Korean consumers prefer a renewable portfolio that minimizes power supply costs.The average WTP for all three energy types was KRW 1562.7 (USD 1.350) per month per household, which was approximately 3.7% of the average monthly electricity bill in 2010. This amount represents only 58.2% of what the Korean government allocated in its budget to the new and renewable energy dissemination program in 2010. Thus, our results imply that the promotion of the new and renewable energy dissemination program may be difficult only with the WTP for electricity generated from renewable sources. Specifically, the mean WTP will not support the set-aside dissemination capacity for PV after 2014.     

Long term climate change mitigation goals under the nuclear phase out policy: The Swiss energy system transition

The Swiss electricity system is dominated by low-carbon hydro and nuclear generation. The Government's decision to phase-out nuclear energy exacerbates Switzerland's climate change mitigation goals. Response to this challenge requires systemic changes to the energy system, which is generally a long-term, uncertain and systemic process, affected by technology choices across the entire energy system. A comprehensive Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) with high temporal detail has been developed for the analysis of plausible low-carbon energy pathways focusing on uncertainties related to policy (climate change mitigation and acceptability of new centralised electricity generation) and international fuel prices. Increasing electrification of end-uses is seen across the scenarios, resulting in continuous growth in electricity demands. The electrification of heating and e-mobility substitute direct use of fossil fuels in end-use sectors and contribute to a significant carbon dioxide emission (CO₂) reduction. Centralised gas power plants and renewables become key source of electricity supply. Given the phaseout of nuclear generation, clear policy signals are required to ensure capacity is built to achieve a low-carbon energy system. At the same time, it is also essential to ensure consistency between the electricity sector and end-use energy policies. For the long-term carbon reduction target, some non-cost-effective conservation measures are important early in the period because they are available only at the time of building renovation.     

Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy

This paper uses a real options approach (ROA) for analysing the effects of government climate policy uncertainty on private investors’ decision-making in the power sector. It presents an analysis undertaken by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that implements ROA within a dynamic programming approach for technology investment choice. Case studies for gas, coal and nuclear power investment are undertaken with the model. Illustrative results from the model indicate four broad conclusions: i) climate change policy risks can become large if there is only a short time between a future climate policy event such as post-2012 and the time when the investment decision is being made; ii) the way in which CO₂ and fuel price variations feed through to electricity price variations is an important determinant of the overall investment risk that companies will face; iii) investment risks vary according to the technology being considered, with nuclear power appearing to be particularly exposed to fuel and CO₂ price risks under various assumptions; and iv) the government will be able to reduce investors' risks by implementing long-term (say 10 years) rather than short-term (say 5 years) climate change policy frameworks. Contributions of this study include: (1) having created a step function with stochastic volume of jump at a particular time to simulate carbon price shock under a particular climate policy event; (2) quantifying the implicit risk premium of carbon price uncertainty to investors in new capacity; (3) evaluating carbon price risk alongside energy price risk in investment decision-making; and (4) demonstrating ROA to be a useful tool to quantify the impacts of climate change policy uncertainty on power investment.     

Consumers' willingness to pay for green electricity: A meta-analysis of the literature

At present, electricity generated from power plants using renewable sources costs more than electricity generated from power plants using conventional fuels. Consumers bear these expenses directly or indirectly through higher prices for renewable energy or taxes. The number of studies published over the last few years focusing on people's preferences for renewables has increased steadily, making it more and more difficult to identify key explanatory factors that determine people's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for renewables. We present results of a meta-regression on valuation of consumer preferences for a larger share of renewable energy in their electricity mix. Our meta-regression results reveal a number of important factors that explain the differences in WTP values for renewable energy. Different valuation methods show widely different values, with choice experiments producing the highest estimates. Our results further indicate that consumers' WTP for green electricity differs by source, with hydropower being the least valued. Variables that are often omitted from primary valuation studies are important in explaining differences in values. These variables describe individual and household characteristics as well as information on the type of power plant that will be replaced by renewables. Further, the marginal effect of a survey conducted in the US is pronounced. We also assess the potential for using the results for out-of-sample value transfer and find a median error of 21%.     

Nuclear power in open energy markets: A case study of Turkey

For many decades, like many developed countries, Turkey has controlled her electricity sector as a state-owned monopoly. However, faced with rapid electricity demand growth, Turkey started to consider nuclear option. The present paper aims at evaluating both the present status of nuclear power in general and its implications for Turkish energy market in particular. After examining existing nuclear power technology and providing a brief overview of nuclear power economics; it focuses on the repercussions of nuclear power for Turkish energy market. The paper concludes that, in the short run, it may be considered to keep nuclear power within Turkish energy mix because it is an important carbon-free source of power that can potentially make a significant contribution to both Turkey's future electricity supply and efforts to strengthen Turkey's security of supply. However, in the long term, nuclear power should be retained in Turkey only if it has a lower cost than competing technologies.     

Nucs down in Germany—Prices up in Europe?

Current legislation on power production from nuclear energy in Germany defines certain remaining quantities of permitted electricity production for nuclear power plants. These quantities are defined for each nuclear power plant and are measured in TWh. In the discussion about climate protection and market trend of electricity prices, it is regularly stated by policy makers that the nuclear phase-out will result in an increase in electricity prices and CO₂ emissions. As a consequence a revision is proposed, especially from the Liberals (FDP) and Conservatives (CDU). The following article discusses this issue analysing the different options investors and operators under different scenarios have. It shows firstly that both emissions and power prices can indeed increase, and secondly that the mere discussion about potentially reversing the phasing-out decision can lead to an increase in electricity prices as investment behaviour may change based on expectations regarding future regulation. I conclude that – ceteris paribus – the nuclear phase-out is likely to result in an increase in CO₂ emissions and prices.