我国西部能源产业集群发展研究

本文简要阐述了西部能源产业集群发展机理,总结研究了产业集群形成的阶段和路径,在分析西部地区承接东部产业转移基础条件和需求的基础上,提出了西部能源产业集群发展的工作重点是:制订规划,选好承接点,完善产业体系,发挥企业的主体作用,创新体制机制,加强政策引导.     

西部可持续能源发展战略

为了合理利用西部地区能源资源,促进西部地区将资源优势转化为经济优势,实现能源-经济-环境的可持续发展,本文在综合分析西部地区社会经济和能源资源现状的基础上,立足西部,放眼全国,提出了西部地区可持续能源发展战略的主要内容。提出西部能源发展战略是全国能源发展战略的重要组成部分;能源资源优势转化为经济优势战略,各能源部门协调发展战略,能源生产和消费方式的跨越式发展战略等发展战略。     

A residential end-use energy consumption model for Canada

The residential sector is the third largest end-use energy consumer in Canada. With the increasing pressure on Canada to reduce its energy consumption and the associated carbon dioxide emissions, reducing energy consumption in the residential sector is very important. To quantitatively assess the impact of the large number of measures that can be adopted to reduce the residential energy consumption, a residential energy model for Canada (Canadian Residential Energy End-use Model—CREEM) was developed. This paper presents the model, the characteristics of the residential energy consumption in Canada, and impact of various energy consumption reduction scenarios. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.     

Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform

For a transitional economy such as China, some energy subsidies are reasonable, and sometimes even necessary for achieving social goals. However, with rising energy prices and environmental concerns, we see conflicts emerging between energy subsidies, energy demand/supply fundamentals and climate change considerations. Energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy use, efficiency and the choice of fuel source. This paper applies the price-gap approach to estimate China's energy subsidies. Results indicate that China's energy subsidies amounted to CNY 356.73 billion in 2007, equivalent to 1.43% of GDP. Subsidies for oil products consumption are the largest, followed by subsidies for the electricity and coal sectors. Furthermore, a CGE model is used to analyze the economic impacts of energy subsidy reforms. Our findings show that removing energy subsidies will result in a significant fall in energy demand and emissions, but will have negative impacts on macroeconomic variables. We conclude that offsetting policies could be adopted such that certain shares of these subsidies are reallocated to support other sustainable development measures, which could lead to reducing energy intensity and favoring the environment.     

MARKAL模型在北京中远期能源发展研究中的应用

MARKAL模型是一个综合能源系统优化模型,在满足给定的能源需求量和污染物排放量限制条件下,确定出使能源系统成本最小化的一次能源供应结构和用能技术结构。本文尝试将MARKAL模型应用于北京市中远期能源系统建设研究,根据北京市未来能源、经济、环境协调发展的要求,进行了几种可能的未来能源系统发展情景分析。研究结果表明,适当安排大气环境质量改善进程可以明显减少清洁能源系统建设成本,而且不影响大气环境质量改善的总体效果。     

Recent development of energy supply and demand in China,and energy sector prospects through 2030

Facing multiple pressures, including its commitment to energy efficiency improvement, the current worldwide recession, and global warming concerns, China is making great efforts to maintain its continuous economic growth and reduce pollutant emissions. Many policies to encourage investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy have been issued. This article provides insights into the latest development of energy production, energy consumption and energy strategic planning and policies in China, and also describes the analysis, carried out by the authors as part of the Asian Energy Security project using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) modeling tool, of the impacts of implementing new and expected energy and environmental policies.     

Technologies and policies for the transition to a sustainable energy system in china

The paper highlights the energy dilemma in China’s modernization process. It explores the technological and policy options for the transition to a sustainable energy system in China with Tsinghua University’s Low Carbon Energy Model (LCEM). China has already taken intensive efforts to promote research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies over the past five year. The policy actions cover binding energy conservation and environmental pollution control targets, economic incentives for sustainable energy, and public R&D supports. In order to achieve the sustainable energy system transformation eventually, however, China needs to take further actions such as strengthening R&D of radically innovative sustainable energy technologies and systems such as poly-generation, enhancing the domestic manufacturing capacity of sustainable energy technologies and systems, creating stronger economic incentives for research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies, and playing a leading role in international technology collaborations.     

Forecasting the transport energy demand based on PLSR method in China

Transportation sector accounts for a major share of energy consumption in China, especially the petroleum products, which experienced rapid increases in energy demand. The purpose of this study is to forecast transport energy demand for 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on partial least square regression (PLSR) method under two scenarios. Transport energy demand is analyzed for the period of 1990–2006 based on gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization rate, passenger-turnover and freight-turnover. This method suggests that transport energy demand for 2020 will reach to a level of around 433.13 Mtce and 468.26 Mtce, respectively. Those figures are very close to the estimation obtained by Energy Research Institute of China. Thus this study provides an effective tool, which can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques for the transport energy demand.     

Price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand during urbanization: An empirical analysis based on the household-level survey data in China

Urbanization, one of the most obvious characteristics of economic growth in China, has an apparent “lock-in effect” on residential energy consumption pattern. It is expected that residential sector would become a major force that drives China's energy consumption after urbanization process. We estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand using data from China's Residential Energy Consumption Survey (CRECS) that covers households at different income levels and from different regional and social groups. Empirical results from the Almost Ideal Demand System model are in accordance with the basic expectations: the demands for electricity, natural gas and transport fuels are inelastic in the residential sector due to the unreasonable pricing mechanism. We further investigate the sensitivities of different income groups to prices of the three types of energy. Policy simulations indicate that rationalizing energy pricing mechanism is an important guarantee for energy sustainable development during urbanization. Finally, we put forward suggestions on energy pricing reform in the residential sector based on characteristics of China's undergoing urbanization process and the current energy consumption situations.     

Insights for global energy interconnection from China renewable energy development

Vigorously developing global renewable energy such as wind energy, solar energy, and hydropower and realizing global clean resource sharing are paramount driving forces for building the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI). With the help of a comparative analysis of renewable energy development and global renewable energy development scenarios, this paper expounds on the similarities between China1 and global renewable energy development. Based on the analysis of renewable energy development and the status of global renewable energy development in China, this paper summarizes the relevant experience and problems of renewable energy development in China. According to these problems, this paper also puts forward the corresponding solutions and measures, that is, to promote the healthy and steady development of renewable energy in China through the source-network-load-storage and market coordination. Finally, by analyzing the development requirements and current foundation of GEI, insights and suggestions are proposed for the future development of renewable energy for the GEI construction.     

Spatial development of hydrogen economy in a low-carbon UK energy system

Hydrogen technologies and infrastructures might play a significant role in meeting ambitious climate and energy policy goals of the UK Government. Nonetheless, studies on hydrogen are either limited in scope in that they do not take into account the relationships with the wider energy system drivers and constraints or do not consider how a hydrogen network might develop geographically. This paper presents a framework where a spatially explicit hydrogen module is embedded in the UK MARKAL Energy System model to explore energy system trade-offs for the production, delivery and use of hydrogen at the sub-national level. A set of illustrative scenarios highlight the competitiveness of hydrogen related infrastructures and technologies as well as imported liquid hydrogen against a stringent emissions reduction target; the effect of emissions reduction trajectory on the development of hydrogen network; the intense resource competition between low carbon hydrogen production and electricity generation, and the importance of economies of scale in hydrogen supply and distribution.     

Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions.     

Economic and environmental gains of China's fossil energy subsidies reform: A rebound effect case study with EIMO model

Energy consumption and efficiency emerged as the hottest topic in the context of China's sustainable development. Energy subsidies and “rebound effect” were closely related to this topic while few combinative studies on them with a focus on China. This paper employed a co-thinking approach, focusing on how the energy subsidies reform could mitigate the rebound effect in China, and how to achieve an “economic and environmental gains” that reduced pecuniary spending, improved the distorted energy market and reduced energy consumption simultaneously. Firstly, with price-gap approach we calculated the total energy subsidies scale of China in 2007, which amounted to582.0 billion CNY; then we detected and identified rebound effect of China energy consumption with the features. Furthermore, based on China 2007 monetary input–output table and energy flow analysis, we compiled a hybrid physical energy input and monetary output model (EIMO) to simulate the mitigation effect of subsidies reform. Results showed that removing energy subsidies would decrease ultimate demand of different economy sectors and reduce the accumulatively physical consumption of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity by 17.74, 13.47, 3.64 and 15.82 million tce, respectively. Finally we discussed relevant policy issues on China's energy subsidies reform in depth.     

Impact of energy efficiency upgrade retrofits on the residential energy consumption in Canada

The impact of various energy efficiency upgrade scenarios on the annual energy consumption of the Canadian housing stock is assessed using the Canadian Residential Energy End‐use Model (CREEM). The energy efficiency upgrade scenarios that are considered include major retrofits, such as the improvement of the house envelope by adding insulation, and the replacement of the existing heating system and appliances by higher efficiency units, as well as minor retrofits, such as lighting fixture, thermostat, showerhead and aerator upgrades that reduce energy consumption. The economic feasibility of each upgrade was assessed using the indicator ‘energy savings per dollar investment’. The results indicate that the energy savings potential of the retrofits is rather small, resulting in savings of 0–8 per cent of the total energy consumption of the Canadian housing stock. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Although China became the world's largest CO₂ emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios – Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement – were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO₂ emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.     

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48–0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41–0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort.     

Black Sea wave energy atlas from 13 years hindcasted wave data

The present study aims to evaluate the wave energy potential of the Black Sea. Wave properties were calculated using 3rd generation Spectral Wave Model for years 1996–2009 by using wind data from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The wave model was calibrated using the wave measurements conducted at five different stations. Wave power atlas displaying time – averaged wave power for entire Black Sea was generated. Also wave power roses and wave power distribution tables in means of periods and heights for different regions were presented. Wave energy found to be decreasing along the coast from west to east. It was found that the most energetic region is the South Western part of the sea. The eastern part of the Black Sea is the least energetic in means of wave power. It was concluded that the most promising location is the Thracian shores of Turkey, especially west side of Istanbul. Beside this, other promising locations in the Black Sea Basin were also evaluated. Annual wave energies (kWh/m) for different regions were presented in this study.     

Study on sustainable development of rural household energy in northern China

The status of rural household energy consumption plays an important role in farmers’ daily life, especially in developing countries or regions. Here, we review the evolution of the rural household energy consumption structure in northern China from 1996 to 2005. Studies indicate that the proportion of straw, firewood, and coal consumption in total energy consumption have remained at 88.8–91.0%, whereas the proportion of high-quality commercial energy and modern renewable energy is still very low. The main challenges for the sustainable development of rural household energy supply are an unreasonable energy consumption structure, low-energy efficiency, serious environmental degradation, a large gap in energy supply among regions, and difficulty in developing renewable energy. We suggest some countermeasures to overcome the obstacles involved in the sustainable development of rural household energy in northern China, from energy sources to sociopolitical policies.     

Metafroniter energy efficiency with CO2 emissions and its convergence analysis for China

This paper measures the energy efficiency performance with carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 30 provinces in China during the period of 1997–2011 using a meta-frontier framework with the improved directional distance function (DDF). We construct a new environmental production possibility set by combining the super-efficiency and sequential data envelopment analysis (DEA) models to avoid “discriminating power problem” and “technical regress” when evaluating efficiency by DDF. Then, it is used in a meta-frontier framework to reflect the technology heterogeneities across east, central and west China. The results indicate that eastern China achieved the highest progress inefficiency relative to the metafrontier, followed by western and the central China. By focusing on technology gaps, we offer some suggestions for the different groups based on group-frontier and meta-frontier analyses. The inefficiency can be attributed to managerial failure for eastern and western China, and technological differences for central China. The convergence analysis shows that energy and CO₂ emission governance will produce negative effects on economic growth, and it is suitable and acceptable to introduce rigorous environmental measures in eastern China.