Between fragmented authoritarianism and policy coordination: Creating a Chinese market for wind energy

The Chinese grid-connected wind energy sector has undergone a number of fundamental changes during its 20 years of existence. The scope of this article is to track the reforms of the energy bureaucracy and its policy approach on the one hand and changes in wind energy installations on the other. By comparing three historically distinct phases of wind energy in China it is shown how policy reforms have changed largely from a state of “fragmented authoritarianism” towards policy coordination. In the initial phase (1986–1993), wind energy was expanding very slowly with disjointed policy making and in the incremental phase (1994–1999), the energy authorities were in dispute over the strategy and launched conflicting policy initiatives with poor results in wind energy output. The latest coordinated phase (2000–2006), however, developed a coherent renewable energy agenda and policy regime for the wind power sector. It is found that this phase with coordinated market regulations and incentives has helped give birth to a take-off in Chinese wind energy installations and substantial cost reductions, although the latter is threatening the profitability of wind farms. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should continue, and improve, the coordination of regulations and incentives.     

The rise of community wind power in Japan: Enhanced acceptance through social innovation

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the socio-economic dynamics that are brought about by renewable energy technologies. We call this dynamic “Social Innovation” as it changes the rules of risk–benefit distribution and the roles of social actors. For this purpose, we take up a typical case in Japan, community wind power in which the initial cost is funded by the investment of citizens. Through this case study, we examine how the citizens’ initiative can affect the social acceptance of renewable energy as well as social change. Based on interviews with those involved in these projects, we analyze the interests of the various actors involved in community wind power projects in a framework of “actor network theory”, which enables us to understand the detail of each actor's position. This study also involved a quantitative survey of investors. The case study clarified that there was a remarkable difference in the interests of the main actors in the community wind power projects, the networks are complex and actors share various interests such as economic interests and a sense of social commitment, participation and contribution. These incentives are also clarified in quantitative data. However, the variety of incentives differs in each project.     

“Planning”, “siting” and the local acceptance of wind power: Some lessons from the French case

After some years of trifling development under a system of public tenders (1995–2000), French politicians progressively changed the national policy framework for feed-in tariffs (December 2000) and wind power development zones (July 2005). The new policy framework has triggered a beginning of takeoff in wind power capacity. The paper examines French wind power development in the light of two key dimensions and concepts related to wind power policy: “planning” and “siting” (Part 1). We particularly focus on the recent French legislative debate, which led to the adoption of the new policy framework (Part 2). The French case shows that the recourse to planning tools was not tailor-made for siting issues but resulted from a political fight over the decentralization of energy policy. The policy outcome, which we call “flexible decentralized planning”, is both interesting and ambiguous. It is interesting in that it develops interfaces between planning tools and siting institutions. It is ambiguous in that it is potentially very hierarchical: the final decision power is left in State-planners’ hands, making it unpredictable the extent to which room will genuinely be provided for siting processes to take place.     

Braking wind in Australia: A critical evaluation of the renewable energy target

This paper provides a critical evaluation of Australia’s new Renewable Energy Target (RET) program with respect to its capacity to support wind power development. Four structural flaws associated with the RET which undermine its effectiveness as a catalyst for technological change in the electricity sector are discussed: (i) the inclusion of waste coal mine gas (WCMG) as an eligible fuel source which acts as an indirect coal industry subsidy, (ii) program duration which is too short and ill-structured, (iii) a multiplier that is well-intended to support small-scale renewable technologies but which creates “phantom capacity”, and (iv) the capped target of 45,000 GWh which will stymie long-term wind power market investment. The paper concludes with recommendations which stress the importance of passing effective Carbon Pollution Renewable Scheme (CPRS) legislation to offset the weaknesses associated with the RET. If an effective CPRS cannot be implemented, the paper recommends that amendments be made to the RET to (i) remove WCMG from the list of approved alternative energy sources, and (ii) extend the RET targets to reach 120,000 GWh by 2030.     

Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewables, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development.     

Do state renewable portfolio standards promote in-state renewable generation?

Several US states have passed renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies in order to encourage investment in renewable energy technologies. Existing research on their effectiveness has either employed a cross-sectional approach or has ignored heterogeneity among RPS policies. In this paper, we introduce a new measure for the stringency of an RPS that explicitly accounts for some RPS design features that may have a significant impact on the strength of an RPS. We also investigate the impacts of renewable portfolio standards on in-state renewable electricity development using panel data and our new measure of RPS stringency, and compare the results with those when alternative measures are used. Using our new measure, the results suggest that RPS policies have had a significant and positive effect on in-state renewable energy development, a finding which is masked when design differences among RPS policies are ignored. We also find that another important design feature – allowing “free trade” of REC’s – can significantly weaken the impact of an RPS. These results should prove instructive to policy makers, whether considering the development of a federal-level RPS or the development or redesign of a state-level RPS.     

Who formulates renewable-energy policy? A Swedish example

A broad participation by stakeholders and an extensive reliance on expert advice are often seen as preconditions for a legitimate and successfully implemented renewable energy policy. However, we have lacked systematic data for testing this argument. This article’s contribution is to examine the actors who take part in the making of Swedish energy policy with the help of data on the composition of various committees of inquiry over the last twenty years (1988–2009). Swedish renewable energy policy is often characterised with words like “pioneering” and “forerunner”, suggesting that the policy-making process in this area engages many different experts and stakeholders. Our data give only some support to this argument. Results point to a noteworthy predominance of politicians, civil servants, and representatives of state agencies within the policy-process. Producers of uranium and fossils based energy have been engaged more often than producers of renewable energy. Experts have played a prominent role, but this is mostly due to the participation of expert bureaucrats rather than of scientists. The study suggests that a better understanding of the making of energy policy, both in Sweden and elsewhere, requires greater attention to the networks and role of various state employees.     

Current status of research on optimum sizing of stand-alone hybrid solar–wind power generation systems

Solar and wind energy systems are omnipresent, freely available, environmental friendly, and they are considered as promising power generating sources due to their availability and topological advantages for local power generations. Hybrid solar–wind energy systems, uses two renewable energy sources, allow improving the system efficiency and power reliability and reduce the energy storage requirements for stand-alone applications. The hybrid solar–wind systems are becoming popular in remote area power generation applications due to advancements in renewable energy technologies and substantial rise in prices of petroleum products. This paper is to review the current state of the simulation, optimization and control technologies for the stand-alone hybrid solar–wind energy systems with battery storage. It is found that continued research and development effort in this area is still needed for improving the systems’ performance, establishing techniques for accurately predicting their output and reliably integrating them with other renewable or conventional power generation sources.     

A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies.     

An investigation on the impacts of regulatory interventions on wind power expansion in generation planning

Large integration of intermittent wind generation in power system has necessitated the inclusion of more innovative and sophisticated approaches in power system investment planning. This paper presents a novel framework on the basis of a combination of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) algorithm and game theory to study the impacts of different regulatory interventions to promote wind power investment in generation expansion planning. In this study, regulatory policies include Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) incentive, quota and tradable green certificate. The intermittent nature and uncertainties of wind power generation will cause the investors encounter risk in their investment decisions. To overcome this problem, a novel model has been derived to study the regulatory impacts on wind generation expansion planning. In our approach, the probabilistic nature of wind generation is modeled. The model can calculate optimal investment strategies, in which the wind power uncertainty is included. This framework is implemented on a test system to illustrate the working of the proposed approach. The result shows that FITs are the most effective policy to encourage the rapid and sustained deployment of wind power. FITs can significantly reduce the risks of investing in renewable energy technologies and thus create conditions conducive to rapid market growth.     

Geographic proximity to coal plants and U.S. public support for extending the Production Tax Credit

The Production Tax Credit (PTC) is an important policy instrument through which the federal government promotes renewable energy development in the United States. However, the efficacy of the PTC is hampered by repeated expirations and short-term extensions, and by the general uncertainty surrounding its future status. We examine the factors driving variation in public support for the extension of the PTC using a nationally representative, internet-based survey. Americans living near a coal-fired power plant are significantly more likely to support extending the PTC than are their peers who are more insulated from the externalities of burning coal. The evidence for this dynamic was strongest and most statistically significant among subjects experimentally primed to think about the adverse health effects of burning coal. Raising awareness of the public health ramifications of generating electricity from fossil fuels holds the potential to increase support for renewable energy policies among those living in proximity to coal plants, even in a highly politicized policy debate.     

Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme

This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black–Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R&D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: “Baseline” corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. “Accelerated” strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R&D and the advantages of accelerated development path.     

Decarbonising power generation in China—Is the answer blowing in the wind?

This paper examines the current situation of wind industry development, evaluates the potentials of GHG mitigation and identifies the key determinants of scaling up wind power deployment in China. China has doubled its wind capacity every year for the past 4 years, the total installed capacity reached 12 Gigawatts (GW) and surpassed the 10-GW target 2 years ahead of schedule in the national plan for renewable energy development [38], [71], [87],and would reach 100–120 GW by 2020 according to the government’s new energy plan. It may become the biggest wind power generation and wind turbines manufacturing country of the world in the next years if the abundant wind resources and enormous domestic market can be harnessed with appropriate policies and efficient technology. The recent positive move in vigorous development of wind power in China implies that the total installed capacity will far exceed the targets of the government’s 2007 renewable energy plan. However, the prosperous Chinese wind market has also revealed some worrisome signals and weakness [28], [58], such as low capacity factor and frequent outage of wind farms, inadequate grid infrastructure, long distance transmission, low quality of turbines, adverse price bidding, nepotism in wind farm developer selection process and regulatory uncertainty and policy inconsistency which all conspire to hinder effective power generation in the massively new installed wind capacities. A coherent policy framework is required for creating enabling environment for accelerating wind energy penetration and state-of-art technology deployment in the country. It is argued that institutional, financial and technical capacity will need to be cemented to exploit the huge potentials of wind resources to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity in China in the coming decades with minimised environmental implications.     

Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms’ investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5–10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16–37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty.     

Pros and cons of exposing renewables to electricity market risks—A comparison of the market integration approaches in Germany,Spain, and the UK

The article examines how renewable electricity (RES-E) producers are integrated into the electricity market under the support legislations and regulatory frameworks of Germany, Spain, and the UK. Focus is on wind power, which faces the highest market integration challenge of all RES-E. The analysis shows that the three countries follow contrasting approaches of exposing RES-E producers to the market risks of forward electricity markets, balancing markets and system planning requirements. Risk exposure is highest in the UK and lowest in Germany. From a policy maker's perspective, there is a trade-off between a “high risk” and a “low risk” approach. When RES-E face high market risks, a higher level of financial support is required to stimulate RES-E development than in a low risk environment, but the exposure to market risks may also give an incentive to make efficient use of the respective market, thus limiting the indirect costs to society. The special characteristics of wind energy, however, put natural limits to the response of wind power plants to market prices and locational price signals and will increasingly influence electricity markets and grid infrastructure. These interdependencies should be recognised in the design of RES-E policies and market regulations.     

Preliminary evaluation of the Section 1603 treasury grant program for renewable power projects in the United States

This article evaluates the first year of the Section 1603 Treasury cash grant program, which enables renewable power projects in the US to elect cash grants in lieu of the federal tax credits that are otherwise available. To date, the program has been heavily subscribed, particularly by wind power projects, which had received 86% of the nearly $2.6 billion in grants that had been disbursed as of March 1, 2010. As of that date, 6.2 GW of the 10 GW of new wind capacity installed in the US in 2009 had applied for grants in lieu of production tax credits. Roughly 2.4 GW of this wind capacity may not have otherwise been built in 2009 in the absence of the grant program; this 2.4 GW may have supported approximately 51,600 short-term full-time-equivalent (FTE) gross job-years in the US during the construction phase of these wind projects, and 3860 long-term FTE gross jobs during the operational phase. The program’s popularity stems from the significant economic value that it provides to renewable power projects, relative to the otherwise available tax credits. Although grants reward investment rather than efficient performance, this evaluation finds no evidence at this time of either widespread “gold-plating” or performance problems.     

Spatial variation of emissions impacts due to renewable energy siting decisions in the Western U.S. under high-renewable penetration scenarios

One of the policy goals motivating programs to increase renewable energy investment is that renewable electric generation will help reduce emissions of CO₂ as well as emissions of conventional pollutants (e.g., SO₂ and NO_x). As a policy instrument, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) encourage investments in wind, solar and other generation sources with the goal of reducing air emissions from electricity production. Increased electricity production from wind turbines is expected to displace electricity production from fossil-fired plants, thus reducing overall system emissions. We analyze the emissions impacts of incremental investments in utility-scale wind power, on the order of 1 GW beyond RPS goals, in the Western United States using a utility-scale generation dispatch model that incorporates the impacts of transmission constraints. We find that wind investment in some locations leads to slight increases in overall emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x. The location of wind farms influences the environmental impact by changing the utilization of transmission assets, which affects the overall utilization of power generation sources and thus system-level emissions. Our results suggest that renewable energy policy beyond RPS targets should be carefully crafted to ensure consistency with environmental goals.     

The renewable energy targets of the Maghreb countries: Impact on electricity supply and conventional power markets

Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, the three countries of the North African Maghreb region, are showing increased efforts to integrate renewable electricity into their power markets. Like many other countries, they have pronounced renewable energy targets, defining future shares of “green” electricity in their national generation mixes. The individual national targets are relatively varied, reflecting the different availability of renewable resources in each country, but also the different political ambitions for renewable electricity in the Maghreb states. Open questions remain regarding the targets’ economic impact on the power markets. Our article addresses this issue by applying a linear electricity market optimization model to the North African countries. Assuming a competitive, regional electricity market in the Maghreb, the model minimizes dispatch and investment costs and simulates the impact of the renewable energy targets on the conventional generation system until 2025. Special emphasis is put on investment decisions and overall system costs.     

Valuing a wind farm construction: A contingent valuation study in Greece

Our analysis is based on data from a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation study implemented to elicit public attitudes towards renewable energy generation and their willingness to pay for the construction of a wind farm in the area of Messanagros in the island of Rhodes, Greece. Results indicate that there are significant positive values deriving from the proposed project. Respondents report a mean willingness to pay a premium in their bi-monthly electric bills of €8.86 for the sole purpose of the construction of the wind farm. The estimated economic benefits to the local population are weighed against the investment cost in a cost–benefit analysis to inform policy making and implications for EU energy policy are provided.