Proposal for territorial distribution of the EU 2020 political renewable energy goal

This article first analyses the situation of indicators related to renewable energies in the reference year (2005) used by the European Union (EU) for its goal of a 20% share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy in 2020. Nonlinear distribution of dynamic targets is suggested for increasing the energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy. This methodology is then applied to European Union member countries, the NUTS0 territorial aggregation level according to the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), in the year 2020. Weighting was done based on share of energy from non-renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy, energy from non-renewable sources per capita, energy from non-renewable sources per GDP and GDP per capita in the EU-27 scenario. Finally, a multicriteria formula was applied to weight the variables used in this study.     

Methodology proposal for territorial distribution of greenhouse gas reduction percentages in the EU according to the strategic energy policy goal

A 20% reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020 is one of the main objectives of the European Union (EU) energy policy. However, this overall objective does not specify how it should be distributed among the Member States, according to each one’s particular characteristics. Consequently, in this article a non-linear distribution methodology with dynamic objective targets for reducing GHG emissions is proposed. The goal of this methodology is to promote debate over the weighting of these overall objectives, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. First, an analysis is conducted of the situation of greenhouse gas emissions in the reference year (1990) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing them by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1990 to 2007. Then, the methodology proposed was applied for the year 2020 on two territorial aggregation levels following the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), in the EU-15 and EU-27 member countries and on a regional level in 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities and Cities (NUTS-2). Weighting is done based on CO₂ intensity, GHG emissions per capita and GHG emissions per GDP. Finally, several recommendations are provided for the formulation of energy policies.     

A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU‐15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO₂ emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO₂ emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO₂ emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ‘weighted’ decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards a common renewable future: The System-GMM approach to assess the convergence in renewable energy consumption of EU countries

This paper investigates whether the contribution of renewable energy sources to primary energy consumption is characterized by a convergence process across core European Union (EU) countries over the period from 1990 to 2014. The System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology is employed for 5-year span panel data of 14 EU members. The findings indicate strong evidence for both the absolute (unconditional) and conditional convergence of renewables' share in primary energy consumption across EU-14 countries. Moreover, the control variables, namely CO₂ emissions per GDP, FDI inward stock and electricity prices contribute to the speed of convergence. Hence, the (implicit) rate of conditional convergence is higher than that of absolute convergence. The empirical evidence suggests that the energy mixes of core EU members have a tendency to become similar in the long-run as the shares of RES in primary energy consumption converge to the average level. Nonetheless, it does not necessarily imply that this average would be 20% target, which is to be achieved by 2020 according to EU directive 2009/28/EC.     

Five years left – How are the EU member states contributing to the 20% target for EU's renewable energy consumption; the role of woody biomass

The European Union has set ambitious targets of raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources from 20% by 2020 to 27% by 2030. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of woody biomass in renewable energy as gross final energy consumption in the European Union (the EU-28). The paper identifies leading and lagging countries in biomass development by focusing on their current biomass use and forecasts future perspectives. The research compares and evaluates the role of biomass in renewable energy in the EU-28 focusing on countries' potential resources and policy support. The study shows that all countries are making efforts to reach the 20% target in 2020 and exhibit a trend of increasing renewable energy as gross final energy consumption towards the new target of 2030. Solid biomass plays an important role in reaching the EU's renewable energy targets. The majority of the EU-28 countries are close to reaching their national renewable energy targets and show a very attractive biomass development. Unless energy consumption decreases however, some member states will face serious problems in reaching their renewable energy target in 2020. Following our analysis, the largest problems occur in those MS having a relative high-energy consumption pattern: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. It is unlikely that they can comply with expected renewable energy demand, unless they mobilize more woody biomass from their available domestic potential (France, Germany) or considerably increase their woody biomass imports (mostly wood pellets) from elsewhere (United Kingdom).     

Assessment of wood fuel use for energy generation in Lithuania

The paper investigates possibilities to use solid biomass (wood) resources. It provides detailed analysis on distribution of Lithuanian wood resources and evaluates possibilities to develop the use of above resources for heat and power generation. European Union as well as Lithuanian legislation declares promotion measures for wood as fuel for energy generation. Legal documents suggest implementation via subsidizing of raw material for production of wood chips for boiler-houses and adopting specific promotion program for the use of forestry biomass for boiler-houses according to which the difference between price and costs should be subsidized for producers of such raw material.Directive 2009/28/EB obligates separate countries to develop National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP), which would provide specific promotion schemes and target indicators for each year (up to year 2020). According to this Directive the EU RES share in final energy consumption should reach 20%, and for Lithuanian this share should be no less than 23%, while district heating systems should use no less than 70%. At present the total capacity of wood-chip-fueled boilers reached above 476.1 MW. No series obstacles can be seen for extension of wood fuel use. The renewable energy compromise 18.1% of primary energy annual gross inland consumption and cut of the CO₂ emissions about 6% compared with the level on 1990. According to the Kyoto Protocol Lithuania must reduced green gas emissions 8% in the period 2008–2012. These goals can be realised by increasing of the use of biomass as fuel for the energy production.     

地方落实“十一五”节能目标难点和对策的调查

我国在“十一五”规划纲要中提出“十一五”末万元GDP能耗下降20％左右的目标,各省、市、自治区正在积极落实这一目标。山东、江苏、山西省3省既有能源消费大省,也有能源生产大省,可作为沿海能源匮乏省份和内陆能源资源丰富省份的代表。调研表明,3个省已经着手开展能耗指标分解、节能保障机制的建立、能源消费监测等基础性工作,但同时普遍存在着追求高GDP增长速度,缺乏调整结构的有效手段等问题,制约“十一五”节能目标的实现。解析山东、江苏、山西落实节能降耗的举措、经验及其遇到的问题,对全国乃至其他地区开展节能降耗工作具有借鉴意义。本文就一些共性问题进行了归纳和总结,并提出了相关对策建议。     

Using strong sustainability to optimize electricity generation fuel mixes

This work represents a contribution to the field of sustainable electricity system design by using an optimization tool to specify the final mix composition, subject to the constraints of: emissions that are within the biocapacity of the region; a diverse and robust electricity supply system; and supply that at least meets current demand. The 25-country European Union (EU-25) is used as a case study. All the goals, save diversity, can be met by re-structuring the current fuel mix, thus maintaining current consumption levels. The diversity target is only met when consumption is reduced by 10–15% and the constraint on maximum material throughput is relaxed. Re-structuring the mix and reducing consumption is insufficient to achieve a sustainable EU carbon footprint. However, the solution proposed singlehandedly allows the EU to meet its Kyoto emissions target as well as its 2007 policy of a reduction of 20% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.     

EEC energy policy and the UK: The Birmingham energy model

This paper examines the implications of the EEC common energy policy for the UK energy sector as represented by a long-term programming model. The model suggests that the UK will be a substantial net exporter of energy in 1985 and will therefore make an important contribution towards the EEC's efforts to meet its import dependency target of 50% or less of gross inland consumption. Furthermore, the UK energy sector could operate within the 1985 EEC energy policy constraints with relatively low extra cost up to the year 2020 (the end of the period covered by the model). The main effect of the constraints would be to bring forward the production of synthetic gas and oil from coal.     

Greenhouse gas emission reduction perspectives in the Baltic States in frames of EU energy and climate policy

The goal of this paper is to estimate the perspectives of the Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on meeting the new European Union climate commitments, i.e., to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% to the year 2020 in comparison with 1990. This ambitious target could be reached based on other EU climate and energy package commitments: increase of the share of renewables and improvement of energy efficiency as tools for fulfilling the GHG emissions reduction target.The paper gives an overview on the current situation and future plans of the Baltic States in the field of energy efficiency, consumption of renewables and reduction of GHG emissions.     

Formulating a modern energy companies’ environment in the EU accession member states through a decision support methodology

One of the current energy policy's goals in the European Union (EU) is the exchange of knowledge and experience between the EU-15 member states and the new as well as the candidate countries in issues regarding the development of Renewable Energy Sources and the promotion of Energy Efficiency (EE). Nowadays, the liberalization of energy markets and the deterioration of the climate, in combination with the non-stop crude oil price increase, have had a decisive influence on the development of the above sectors. In addition, one of the most important elements for the renewable energy and EE development is the enhancement of energy producers by renewable energy and Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), respectively. These companies’ success is based on the formulation of a modern environment in each EU member state. However, the environment in the new and candidate member states is less mature than the environment in the EU-15 member states, as it is still in its development phase. In this context, the main aim of this paper is to present a “multi-dimensional” decision support methodology for the formulation of modern energy companies’ operational environment in the 13 new and candidate member states of the EU.     

Future projection of the energy dependency of Turkey using artificial neural network

Energy dependency (ED) implies the extent to which an economy relies upon imports in order to meet its energy needs. The ED is calculated as net imports divided by the sum of gross inland energy consumption plus bunkers. This study aims at obtaining numerical equations to estimate of Turkey's energy dependency based on basic energy indicators and sectoral energy consumption by using artificial neural network (ANN) technique. It seeks to contribute to the strategies necessary to preserve the supply–demand balance of Turkey. For this purpose, two different models were used to train the ANN approach. In Model 1, main energy indicators such as total production of primary energy per capita, total gross electricity generation per capita and final energy consumption per capita were used in the input layer of the ANN while sectoral energy consumption per capita was used in Model 2.The ED was in the output layer for both models. Different models were employed to estimate the ED with a high confidence for future projections. The R² values of ED were found to be 0.999 for both models. In accordance with the analysis results, ED is expected to increase from 72% to 82% within 14 years of period. Consequently, the utilization of renewable energy sources and nuclear energy is strictly recommended to ensure the ED stability in Turkey.     

Assessment of China's energy-saving and emission-reduction accomplishments and opportunities during the 11th Five Year Plan

From 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). With a dramatic reversal of this historic relationship, energy intensity increased 5% per year during 2002–2005. China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) set a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010. This paper assesses selected policies and programs that China has instituted to fulfill the national goal, finding that China made substantial progress and many of the energy-efficiency programs appear to be on track to meet – or in some cases exceed – their energy-saving targets. Most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program will meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program has become very robust. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure, are failing. It is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals.     

2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析

在工业化和现代化的进程中,无论是总量还是人均,我国能源和电力消费都将快速增长,且用电量的增速更快于能源消费。我国低碳经济的发展应以不断降低碳排放强度为目标,从优化产业结构和优化能源消费结构2方面同时着手实施,情景分析表明,我国2020年碳排放强度有望比2007年降低33%～37%。     

Situation of Turkey's energy indicators among the EU member states

As a candidate country for EU accession, Turkey should make significant future plans about strategy of consumption and production of basic energy sources. The main goal of this study is determination of energy indicators situation for Turkey—to allow us to draw up a good energy policy for the future using the method of multiple variables data analysis. Basic energy and economic indicators, such as gross generation, installed capacity, net energy consumption per person, import, export, consumption of coal, lignite, fuel oil, natural gas and hydroelectricity are used in the analysis. Energy indicators used in the analysis are taken from the EUROSTAT and Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). Results of analysis show that Turkey's most important goal for the future is to produce proper energy policies.     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。     

City size and energy conservation: Do large cities in China consume more energy?

Although the nexus between urbanization and energy consumption has been widely discussed at the macro level or in specific areas such as in relation to residents and transport, how the expansion of city size affects energy consumption in the process of urbanization is still unknown. Clarifying this impact mechanism is necessary for China to achieve its energy conservation goals. In this context, based on a systematic theoretical elaboration, this study constructs an econometric model of the nexus between city size and energy use and performs a series of robust empirical analyses through the endogenous control of instrumental variables. The results show that the current expansion of China's city size tends to positively affect energy consumption; however, as city size continues to expand, energy consumption will exceed the critical value and change from increasing to decreasing. In this process, it is easier to achieve a decline in energy intensity than a decline in per capita energy consumption. Cities with a population exceeding 1 million in their urban districts are more conducive to reducing energy use. Compared with the expansion of urban built-up areas, an increasing population agglomeration can more effectively promote the decline of urban energy consumption. This study provides policy makers with new ideas about urban planning and energy conservation.     

Impact of energy policy instruments on the estimated level of underlying energy efficiency in the EU residential sector

The promotion of energy efficiency is seen as one of the top priorities of EU energy policy (EC, 2010). In order to design and implement effective energy policy instruments, it is necessary to have information on energy demand price and income elasticities in addition to sound indicators of energy efficiency. This research combines the approaches taken in energy demand modelling and frontier analysis in order to econometrically estimate the level of energy efficiency for the residential sector in the EU-27 member states for the period 1996 to 2009. The estimates for the energy efficiency confirm that the EU residential sector indeed holds a relatively high potential for energy savings from reduced inefficiency. Therefore, despite the common objective to decrease ‘wasteful’ energy consumption, considerable variation in energy efficiency between the EU member states is established. Furthermore, an attempt is made to evaluate the impact of energy-efficiency measures undertaken in the EU residential sector by introducing an additional set of variables into the model and the results suggest that financial incentives and energy performance standards play an important role in promoting energy efficiency improvements, whereas informative measures do not have a significant impact.     

Assessment of long-term sustainable end-use energy demand in Romania*

Romania is the 10th largest economy in EU-28 and also one of the fastest growing economies in the region. An end-use energy demand model is developed for Romania to assess energy requirement by sector and by end-use for 2015–2050 period. Industry would surpass residential sector as the largest final energy-consuming sector from 2035 onwards. Services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption. Despite expected decline in country’s population, demand for electricity would grow in the future driven by increased household income and expanded services sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, Romania’s per capita electricity consumption would be about half of the EU-28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in industry, space heating in the residential and services, and road passenger travel in transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. Improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system exhibits the highest potential of energy saving.     

Electric energy restructuring in the European Union: Integration,subsidiarity and the challenge of harmonization

In 1996, the European Union (EU) instituted Directive 96/92/EC that aims to establish a competitive, secure and transparent EU-wide internal electric energy market. The process of electricity market restructuring in the EU is being guided primarily by the principle of subsidiarity. As an organizational concept, the principle of subsidiarity allows Member States to establish their own implementation strategies and methods as a means of achieving the EU-mandated goal of electric energy restructuring. Historically, the structure of the electric energy industry in place among the Member States exhibited widely disparate organizational and functional characteristics with regard to ownership, control and regulation. Under these varied and contrasting political and economic conditions, the goal of a EU-wide harmonized electric energy market becomes very challenging. In this paper, I describe the policy mechanisms and the market conditions mandated by the EU directive aimed at liberalizing the electric energy market. I then assess the role of political culture, historical resource endowment and geographical conditions in the utility restructuring strategies of some key Member States and its effects on the overall goals of a harmonized internal electric energy market. Finally, I argue that European electric energy restructuring must be understood within the context of the political and economic milieu that spawned the individual Member States’ electric energy industry.