Alternative mechanisms of increased eggshell hardness of avian brood parasites relative to host species

Obligate brood parasitic birds lay their eggs in nests of other species and parasite eggs typically have evolved greater structural strength relative to host eggs. Increased mechanical strength of the parasite eggshell is an adaptation that can interfere with puncture ejection behaviours of discriminating hosts. We investigated whether hardness of eggshells is related to differences between physical and chemical traits from three different races of the parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus, and their respective hosts. Using tools developed for materials science, we discovered a novel correlate of increased strength of parasite eggs: the common cuckoo''s egg exhibits a greater microhardness, especially in the inner region of the shell matrix, relative to its host and sympatric non-host species. We then tested predictions of four potential mechanisms of shell strength: (i) increased relative thickness overall, (ii) greater proportion of the structurally harder shell layers, (iii) higher concentration of inorganic components in the shell matrix, and (iv) elevated deposition of a high density compound, MgCO₃, in the shell matrix. We confirmed support only for hypothesis (i). Eggshell characteristics did not differ between parasite eggs sampled from different host nests in distant geographical sites, suggesting an evolutionarily shared microstructural mechanism of stronger parasite eggshells across diverse host-races of brood parasitic cuckoos.     

The dynamic influence of genetic variation on the susceptibility of sheep to gastrointestinal nematode infection.

The interaction between sheep and the nematode Teladorsagia circumcincta is one of the best understood of all host-parasite interactions. Following infection, there is considerable variation among lambs in the number of nematode eggs produced, the number of early fourth-stage larvae and the number of adult worms in the mucosa. These traits have a high variance to mean ratio (i.e. they are overdispersed or aggregated among hosts), they are skewed and approximately negative binomially distributed. The sources of overdispersion are differences among lambs in the ingestion of infective larvae and the immune response. Both forces can produce aggregation but their relative importance is unknown. The key components of variation can be identified by variance analysis. The sum of the average effects of polymorphic genes is known as additive genetic variation and this increases essentially from zero at one month of age to quite high values at six months of age. The major mechanism underlying genetic variation appears to be the differences among individuals in immune responses. Two of the major sources of variation in immune responses are differences in antigen recognition and differences in the type of cytokines produced. Genes that influence both these sources of variation are associated with differences in resistance to nematode infection. Therefore, much of the heterogeneity among animals in parasite transmission appears to be due to genetic variation in immune responsiveness.     

Prediction of human protein–protein interaction by a mixed Bayesian model and its application to exploring underlying cancer-related pathway crosstalk

Protein–protein interaction (PPI) prediction method has provided an opportunity for elucidating potential biological processes and disease mechanisms. We integrated eight features involving proteomic, genomic, phenotype and functional annotation datasets by a mixed model consisting of full connected Bayesian (FCB) model and naive Bayesian model to predict human PPIs, resulting in 40 447 PPIs which contain 2740 common PPIs with the human protein reference database (HPRD) by a likelihood ratio cutoff of 512. Then we applied them to exploring underlying pathway crosstalk where pathways were derived from the pathway interaction database. Two pathway crosstalk networks (PCNs) were constructed based on PPI sets. The PPI sets were derived from two different sources. One source was strictly the HPRD database while the other source was a combination of HPRD and PPIs predicted by our mixed Bayesian method. We demonstrated that PCNs based on the mixed PPI set showed much more underlying pathway interactions than the HPRD PPI set. Furthermore, we mapped cancer-causing mutated somatic genes to PPIs between significant pathway crosstalk pairs. We extracted highly connected clusters from over-represented subnetworks of PCNs, which were enriched for mutated gene interactions that acted as crosstalk links. Most of the pathways in top ranking clusters were shown to play important roles in cancer. The clusters themselves showed coherent function categories pertaining to cancer development.     

The evolutionary dynamics of within-generation immune priming in invertebrate hosts

While invertebrates lack the machinery necessary for ‘acquired immunity’, there is increasing empirical evidence that exposure to low levels of disease may ‘prime’ an invertebrate''s immune response, increasing its defence to subsequent exposure. Despite this increasing empirical data, there has been little theoretical attention paid to immune priming. Here, we investigate the evolution of immune priming, focusing on the role of the unique feedbacks generated by a newly developed susceptible–primed–infected epidemiological model. Contrasting our results with previous models on the evolution of acquired immunity, we highlight that there are important implications to the evolution of immunity through priming owing to these different epidemiological feedbacks. In particular, we find that in contrast to acquired immunity, priming is strongly selected for at high as well as intermediate pathogen virulence. We also find that priming may be greatest at either intermediate or high host lifespans depending on the severity of disease. Furthermore, hosts faced with more severe pathogens are more likely to evolve diversity in priming. Finally, we show when the evolution of priming leads to the exclusion of the pathogens or hosts experiencing population cycles. Overall the model acts as a baseline for understanding the evolution of priming in host–pathogen systems.     

The contagious nature of imprisonment: an agent-based model to explain racial disparities in incarceration rates

We build an agent-based model of incarceration based on the susceptible–infected–suspectible (SIS) model of infectious disease propagation. Our central hypothesis is that the observed racial disparities in incarceration rates between Black and White Americans can be explained as the result of differential sentencing between the two demographic groups. We demonstrate that if incarceration can be spread through a social influence network, then even relatively small differences in sentencing can result in large disparities in incarceration rates. Controlling for effects of transmissibility, susceptibility and influence network structure, our model reproduces the observed large disparities in incarceration rates given the differences in sentence lengths for White and Black drug offenders in the USA without extensive parameter tuning. We further establish the suitability of the SIS model as applied to incarceration by demonstrating that the observed structural patterns of recidivism are an emergent property of the model. In fact, our model shows a remarkably close correspondence with California incarceration data. This work advances efforts to combine the theories and methods of epidemiology and criminology.     

Simultaneous reconstruction of evolutionary history and epidemiological dynamics from viral sequences with the birth–death SIR model

The evolution of RNA viruses, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus and influenza virus, occurs so rapidly that the viruses'' genomes contain information on past ecological dynamics. Hence, we develop a phylodynamic method that enables the joint estimation of epidemiological parameters and phylogenetic history. Based on a compartmental susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model, this method provides separate information on incidence and prevalence of infections. Detailed information on the interaction of host population dynamics and evolutionary history can inform decisions on how to contain or entirely avoid disease outbreaks. We apply our birth–death SIR method to two viral datasets. First, five HIV type 1 clusters sampled in the UK between 1999 and 2003 are analysed. The estimated basic reproduction ratios range from 1.9 to 3.2 among the clusters. All clusters show a decline in the growth rate of the local epidemic in the middle or end of the 1990s. The analysis of a hepatitis C virus genotype 2c dataset shows that the local epidemic in the Córdoban city Cruz del Eje originated around 1906 (median), coinciding with an immigration wave from Europe to central Argentina that dates from 1880 to 1920. The estimated time of epidemic peak is around 1970.     

Constraint-based network model of pathogen–immune system interactions

Pathogenic bacteria such as Bordetella bronchiseptica modulate host immune responses to enable their establishment and persistence; however, the immune response is generally successful in clearing these bacteria. Here, we model the dynamic outcome of the interplay between host immune components and B. bronchiseptica virulence factors. The model extends our previously published interaction network of B. bronchiseptica and includes the existing experimental information on the relative timing of IL10 and IFNγ activation in the form of qualitative inequalities. The current model improves the previous one in two directions: (i) by augmenting the network with new nodes with specific function in T helper cell differentiation and effector mechanisms and (ii) by using a dynamic approach that allows us to quantify node states and mechanisms revealed to be important from our previous model. The model makes predictions about the time scales of each process, the activity thresholds of each node and novel regulatory interactions. For example, the model predicts that the activity threshold of IL4 is higher than that of IL12 and that pro-inflammatory cytokines regulate the activity of Th2 cells. Some of these predictions are supported by the literature, and many can serve as targets of future experiments.     

An ecophysiological model of plant–pest interactions: the role of nutrient and water availability

Empirical studies have shown that particular irrigation/fertilization regimes can reduce pest populations in agroecosystems. This appears to promise that the ecological concept of bottom-up control can be applied to pest management. However, a conceptual framework is necessary to develop a mechanistic basis for empirical evidence. Here, we couple a mechanistic plant growth model with a pest population model. We demonstrate its utility by applying it to the peach–green aphid system. Aphids are herbivores which feed on the plant phloem, deplete plants’ resources and (potentially) transmit viral diseases. The model reproduces system properties observed in field studies and shows under which conditions the diametrically opposed plant vigour and plant stress hypotheses find support. We show that the effect of fertilization/irrigation on the pest population cannot be simply reduced as positive or negative. In fact, the magnitude and direction of any effect depend on the precise level of fertilization/irrigation and on the date of observation. We show that a new synthesis of experimental data can emerge by embedding a mechanistic plant growth model, widely studied in agronomy, in a consumer–resource modelling framework, widely studied in ecology. The future challenge is to use this insight to inform practical decision making by farmers and growers.     

Time and dose-dependent risk of pneumococcal pneumonia following influenza: a model for within-host interaction between influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae

A significant fraction of seasonal and in particular pandemic influenza deaths are attributed to secondary bacterial infections. In animal models, influenza virus predisposes hosts to severe infection with both Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. Despite its importance, the mechanistic nature of the interaction between influenza and pneumococci, its dependence on the timing and sequence of infections as well as the clinical and epidemiological consequences remain unclear. We explore an immune-mediated model of the viral–bacterial interaction that quantifies the timing and the intensity of the interaction. Taking advantage of the wealth of knowledge gained from animal models, and the quantitative understanding of the kinetics of pathogen-specific immunological dynamics, we formulate a mathematical model for immune-mediated interaction between influenza virus and S. pneumoniae in the lungs. We use the model to examine the pathogenic effect of inoculum size and timing of pneumococcal invasion relative to influenza infection, as well as the efficacy of antivirals in preventing severe pneumococcal disease. We find that our model is able to capture the key features of the interaction observed in animal experiments. The model predicts that introduction of pneumococcal bacteria during a 4–6 day window following influenza infection results in invasive pneumonia at significantly lower inoculum size than in hosts not infected with influenza. Furthermore, we find that antiviral treatment administered later than 4 days after influenza infection was not able to prevent invasive pneumococcal disease. This work provides a quantitative framework to study interactions between influenza and pneumococci and has the potential to accurately quantify the interactions. Such quantitative understanding can form a basis for effective clinical care, public health policies and pandemic preparedness.     

Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London

We present a new statistical approach to analyse epidemic time-series data. A major difficulty for inference is that (i) the latent transmission process is partially observed and (ii) observed quantities are further aggregated temporally. We develop a data augmentation strategy to tackle these problems and introduce a diffusion process that mimics the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic process, but that is more tractable analytically. While methods based on discrete-time models require epidemic and data collection processes to have similar time scales, our approach, based on a continuous-time model, is free of such constraint. Using simulated data, we found that all parameters of the SIR model, including the generation time, were estimated accurately if the observation interval was less than 2.5 times the generation time of the disease. Previous discrete-time TSIR models have been unable to estimate generation times, given that they assume the generation time is equal to the observation interval. However, we were unable to estimate the generation time of measles accurately from historical data. This indicates that simple models assuming homogenous mixing (even with age structure) of the type which are standard in mathematical epidemiology miss key features of epidemics in large populations.     

Synergy of cell–cell repulsion and vacuolation in a computational model of lumen formation

A key step in blood vessel development (angiogenesis) is lumen formation: the hollowing of vessels for blood perfusion. Two alternative lumen formation mechanisms are suggested to function in different types of blood vessels. The vacuolation mechanism is suggested for lumen formation in small vessels by coalescence of intracellular vacuoles, a view that was extended to extracellular lumen formation by exocytosis of vacuoles. The cell–cell repulsion mechanism is suggested to initiate extracellular lumen formation in large vessels by active repulsion of adjacent cells, and active cell shape changes extend the lumen. We used an agent-based computer model, based on the cellular Potts model, to compare and study both mechanisms separately and combined. An extensive sensitivity analysis shows that each of the mechanisms on its own can produce lumens in a narrow region of parameter space. However, combining both mechanisms makes lumen formation much more robust to the values of the parameters, suggesting that the mechanisms may work synergistically and operate in parallel, rather than in different vessel types.     

Surfactancy in a tadpole model of proteins

We model the environment of eukaryotic nuclei by representing macromolecules by only their entropic properties, with globular molecules represented by spherical colloids and flexible molecules by polymers. We put particular focus on proteins with both globular and intrinsically disordered regions, which we represent with ‘tadpole’ constructed by grafting single polymers and colloids together. In Monte Carlo simulations, we find these tadpoles support phase separation via depletion flocculation, and demonstrate several surfactant behaviours, including being found preferentially at interfaces and forming micelles in single phase solution. Furthermore, the model parameters can be tuned to give a tadpole a preference for either bulk phase. However, we find entropy too weak to drive these behaviours by itself at likely biological concentrations.     

Spatial heterogeneity enhances and modulates excitability in a mathematical model of the myometrium

The muscular layer of the uterus (myometrium) undergoes profound changes in global excitability prior to parturition. Here, a mathematical model of the myocyte network is developed to investigate the hypothesis that spatial heterogeneity is essential to the transition from local to global excitation which the myometrium undergoes just prior to birth. Each myometrial smooth muscle cell is represented by an element with FitzHugh–Nagumo dynamics. The cells are coupled through resistors that represent gap junctions. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by means of stochastic variation in coupling strengths, with parameters derived from physiological data. Numerical simulations indicate that even modest increases in the heterogeneity of the system can amplify the ability of locally applied stimuli to elicit global excitation. Moreover, in networks driven by a pacemaker cell, global oscillations of excitation are impeded in fully connected and strongly coupled networks. The ability of a locally stimulated cell or pacemaker cell to excite the network is shown to be strongly dependent on the local spatial correlation structure of the couplings. In summary, spatial heterogeneity is a key factor in enhancing and modulating global excitability.     

A dose and time response Markov model for the in-host dynamics of infection with intracellular bacteria following inhalation: with application to Francisella tularensis

In a novel approach, the standard birth–death process is extended to incorporate a fundamental mechanism undergone by intracellular bacteria, phagocytosis. The model accounts for stochastic interaction between bacteria and cells of the immune system and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection of individual hosts within a population. Model output is the dose–response relation and the dose-dependent distribution of time until response, where response is the onset of symptoms. The model is thereafter parametrized with respect to the highly virulent Schu S4 strain of Francisella tularensis, in the first such study to consider a biologically plausible mathematical model for early human infection with this bacterium. Results indicate a median infectious dose of about 23 organisms, which is higher than previously thought, and an average incubation period of between 3 and 7 days depending on dose. The distribution of incubation periods is right-skewed up to about 100 organisms and symmetric for larger doses. Moreover, there are some interesting parallels to the hypotheses of some of the classical dose–response models, such as independent action (single-hit model) and individual effective dose (probit model). The findings of this study support experimental evidence and postulations from other investigations that response is, in fact, influenced by both in-host and between-host variability.     

Analytical model for instantaneous lift and shape deformation of an insect-scale flapping wing in hover

In the analysis of flexible flapping wings of insects, the aerodynamic outcome depends on the combined structural dynamics and unsteady fluid physics. Because the wing shape and hence the resulting effective angle of attack are a priori unknown, predicting aerodynamic performance is challenging. Here, we show that a coupled aerodynamics/structural dynamics model can be established for hovering, based on a linear beam equation with the Morison equation to account for both added mass and aerodynamic damping effects. Lift strongly depends on the instantaneous angle of attack, resulting from passive pitch associated with wing deformation. We show that both instantaneous wing deformation and lift can be predicted in a much simplified framework. Moreover, our analysis suggests that resulting wing kinematics can be explained by the interplay between acceleration-related and aerodynamic damping forces. Interestingly, while both forces combine to create a high angle of attack resulting in high lift around the midstroke, they offset each other for phase control at the end of the stroke.     

The biological seal of the implant–soft tissue interface evaluated in a tissue-engineered oral mucosal model

For dental implants, it is vital that an initial soft tissue seal is achieved as this helps to stabilize and preserve the peri-implant tissues during the restorative stages following placement. The study of the implant–soft tissue interface is usually undertaken in animal models. We have developed an in vitro three-dimensional tissue-engineered oral mucosal model (3D OMM), which lends itself to the study of the implant–soft tissue interface as it has been shown that cells from the three-dimensional OMM attach onto titanium (Ti) surfaces forming a biological seal (BS). This study compares the quality of the BS achieved using the three-dimensional OMM for four types of Ti surfaces: polished, machined, sandblasted and anodized (TiUnite). The BS was evaluated quantitatively by permeability and cell attachment tests. Tritiated water (HTO) was used as the tracing agent for the permeability test. At the end of the permeability test, the Ti discs were removed from the three-dimensional OMM and an Alamar Blue assay was used for the measurement of residual cells attached to the Ti discs. The penetration of the HTO through the BS for the four types of Ti surfaces was not significantly different, and there was no significant difference in the viability of residual cells that attached to the Ti surfaces. The BS of the tissue-engineered oral mucosa around the four types of Ti surface topographies was not significantly different.