China Kicks off Fuel Oil Futures in Shanghai

China, the world's No. 2 oil consumer only after the United States, rolled out fuel oil futures for the first time in a decade on August 25, offering hedging tools to firms wincing at sky-high prices and paving the way for crude oil derivatives.     

中国建立天然气期货市场的必要性和可行性

天然气是近期内唯一可能大规模替代煤炭和石油的清洁能源。中国的天然气工业有着广阔的发展前景,而价格则是影响其发展的核心因素。为此,通过研究天然气工业发达国家的经验以及期货市场定价的特点,认识到了中国建立天然气期货市场的必要性:1期货市场发现的价格最接近理想的均衡价格;2期货市场可以发现连续的远期价格;3在合约到期日(交割日)期货价格与现货价格收敛趋同。基于中国天然气市场的现状及发展趋势,认为建立中国自己的天然气期货市场是可行的:1我国天然气现货市场参与者已经达到一定数量,进行期货交易的需求潜力巨大;2我国天然气管输和储备系统基本完善,交割条件已经具备;3国内期货市场快速发展,提供了管理经验和人才保障;4中国地理位置优越,有望成为东亚天然气定价和交割中心。因此中国应该尽快建立天然气期货市场,发现天然气市场价格。     

上海燃料油期货与现货的引导关系实证分析

以上海燃料油期货价格和黄埔现货市场价格为样本,通过实证的方法分析了燃料油期货和现货的关系,发现燃料油期货和现货之间存在协整关系。在误差修正模型基础上的引导关系检验,进一步发现燃料油期货不仅滞后引导现货,而且还即时引导现货,但是燃料油现货仅仅即时引导期货。     

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.     

中国天然气基准价格形成中的若干问题

由于和油价挂钩的天然气定价机制不能反映中国以及东亚地区其他国家天然气市场的基本面,包括中国在内的几个东亚地区的国家都在考虑建立自己的天然气基准价格。为此,分析了建立中国天然气基准价格应有的动力,厘清了交易枢纽的基本概念,并提出形成中国天然气基准价格的基本条件,即:①具备供买卖双方交易合同的交易所;②具备明确交割地的交易枢纽;③具有标准化的交易产品;④具备竞争性的市场环境包括足够数量的市场参与者。基于上述条件,分析了形成中国天然气基准价格的现状:①中国目前仅仅建立了功能不全的现货交易所,仍缺乏明确定义的交易枢纽,不具备形成天然气中国价格的必要条件;②多个重要骨干管网的交汇地,或者管输能力充足的主要市场,都有望在未来成为基准枢纽。最后针对形成中国天然气基准价格提出建议:天然气市场化改革形成竞争性的天然气市场是形成基准价格的前提,在当前改革仍旧不到位的环境下,有关部门可以从理顺现货和期货交易平台的关系、建立交易枢纽着手,先夯实基础。     

国际 LNG 市场价格走势分析

为弥补日益增加的天然气供需差额，我国特别是东南沿海地区已建、在建和已规划了数个LNG接收站，用于引进国外天然气资源，但是能否最终实现有保障的稳定供应，其最关键的因素还是LNG的市场价格问题。为此，简介了国际LNG定价机制的演变，分析了国际原油价格波动对国际LNG价格的影响，以及影响国际LNG价格变动新因素，如油气进口国的协调、LNG现货和期货贸易、管道天然气贸易的影响等。最后，从长、短期供、需关系的角度，分析了国际LNG市场价格走势。     

Prices back up, sulphur problems and French on strike

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices eased during May until fears of a winter heating oil shortage in the US caused middle distillate and crude oil prices to strengthen, pushing Brent back above $50 a barrel by early June, whilst in the US, WTI figures futures topped $55. Concerns about winter heating oil so early in the year gave rise to fears of even higher prices by autumn. Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, stated meanwhile that "most OPEC members" thought $50 a "fair price" for crude oil.     

完善我国石油定价机制的政策建议

我国实行的“与国际油价接轨”的石油定价机制,其最大的好处是有利于鼓励国内石油企业“走出去”,但无助于规避石油价格风险,也不能反应我国石油的供需关系,因此改革与完善现行的石油价格形成机制已势在必行:第一,打破国有企业的市场垄断,鼓励非国有经济进入石油生产领域;取消上下游领域和南北海陆地域的限制;全面开放上游和管道领域;鼓励社会资金进入石油流通领域。第二,建立市场形成价格的机制,国家由价格制订者转变为价格监管者。第三,协调各能源行业的发展,统一考虑其市场化改革进程。第四,用三大石油公司的部分国有股分红设立石油价格风险基金。第五,建立石油期货市场。     

国际原油价格涨落因素分析

强劲的需求、剩余产能的减少、炼油能力的不足及游资的炒作使国际油价目前仍处于高位。作者综合分析了促成国际原油价格上涨和下跌的各种因素,认为今年四季度到明年上半年国际原油价格仍将处于阶段性高位,徘徊在每桶60~70美元之间,大幅度高于或低于该价格区间的可能性都很小;但中期来看,国际原油价格将在未来几年回落到石油供需双方均可接受的一般均衡价格,大约在每桶40美元。     

Shanghai and Hong Kong Join Efforts for Oil Futures Exchanges

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) announced in midApril they will jointly introduce crude oil futures. The two exchanges will jointly develop an energy derivatives market that serves both Chinese and international investors,according to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed     

Review of China's Oil and Gas Policies in 2018

In 2018, the Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Oil and Gas System was implemented, and supporting measures were introduced one after another to promote the further expansion of the oil and gas market. The promotion of the competitive transfer of mining rights has continued, and Xinjiang has for the first time sold the exploration rights of five oil and gas exploration blocks through listing. The supervision of the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline networks has been strengthened, and oil and gas infrastructure will be opened to third parties. Market access for oil sales has been further relaxed, and restrictions on more than 30 foreign-funded chain gas stations requiring Chinese ownership have been lifted.The management system of oil and gas import and export has been improved, and non-state-owned trading enterprises in the free trade zone have for the first time been granted the right to import crude oil. The pricing mechanism of natural gas has been further improved; the price management of residential gas has been changed from the highest gate station price management to reference gate station price management so as to realize the connection between residential gas and nonresidential gas reference price levels. The promotion of the successful listing of Shanghai crude oil futures will promote the formation of Asian pricing power for crude oil and enhance China's influence on pricing in the international oil market. In addition, the state has issued the Opinions on Promoting the Coordinated and Stable Development of Natural Gas, which is conducive to solving the problems of the incomplete natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system, and unbalanced industrial development in China. Focusing on enhancing domestic oil and gas exploration and development,such fiscal and taxation support policies as shale gas tax cuts and the proposed extension of subsidy years have been introduced so as to slow down the excessive rise in oil and gas dependence on foreign countries, and enhance the ability to ensure national energy security.     

Oil and power industries targeted as war flares in Levant

More oil price records were set in July ( see 'The Month in Brief'). This time, the cause was the bombing of Lebanon by the Israeli airforce, following the abduction of two Israeli soldiers by Iranian-backed guerrillas from Hizbollah, operating from southern Lebanon. Brent and WTI futures both rose above $78 a barrel on fears that the fighting would spread to other Middle Eastern countries. Israeli aeroplanes bombed oil and electricity installations inside Lebanon, causing severe shortages. Rocket attacks by Hizbollah on the northern Israeli city of Haifa led to cuts in throughputs at a nearby refining and petrochemical complex.     

More price records, more Nigerian troubles and privatization woes

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices rose steadily during July, establishing new records in some instances. Dated BFOE went above $78.90/bbl for the first time, whilst on 1st August, September WTI futures hit a record $78.77/bbl after US crude oil inventories recorded a sharp drop. North Sea markets were affected by the shut-down of a gas pipeline which threatened production of more than 100,000 bpd of NGL. OPEC declined to come to the market's rescue by producing more oil, claiming that the high price levels were caused by geopolitical factors and shortages of refined products rather than insufficient supplies of crude. Demand for oil was boosted in Asia by the shut-down of Japan's largest nuclear power station.     

North Sea troubles, petrol riots in Iran and an American gorilla

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Trading in North Sea oil fell sharply following changes to the reporting of the price of Forties crude. On 7th June, 2007, the price-reporting service Platt's announced that it would no longer include Forties crude of less than 37.0° API or more than 0.6% sulphur in its price assessments. Oil companies complained that this was much too restrictive and trading fell amid fears that the market was becoming too narrowly based in terms of which crude grades were included. London's ICE futures exchange declared that it would not accept price assessments of Forties as narrowly defined by Platt's. In a further development, on 8th June, Ekofisk crude was added to the basket constituting the benchmark for dated North Sea crude, which now comprises Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk (BFOE). Problems are affecting benchmark crudes elsewhere. The Dubai Mercantile Exchange's Oman futures contract, which was launched on 1st June, has been slow to attract participants, as has Dubai futures contract launched by ICE on 21st May. Both need to attract much higher levels of trade if they are to be used as benchmarks for Persian Gulf sour crude.     

欧洲天然气交易枢纽发展经验及其对中国的启示

我国一直在推进天然气中国价格的建立,先后设立了两个天然气交易所,同时不断开放天然气市场。为了给中国天然气交易枢纽建设提供借鉴和参照,研究并总结了欧洲天然气交易枢纽发展的成功经验。结果表明:①欧洲天然气交易枢纽建设成功的经验包括市场自由化、竞争性的市场、管网的无歧视第三方接入、对居于主导地位企业行为的改革和管制等方面;②另外一些影响因素也非常重要,如国内天然气生产能力、贸易传统、多元化的供应以及市场供应过剩等;③政府推动政策法规变革、监管市场、改革自身的管理模式,在欧洲天然气枢纽的建设中也发挥了重要的作用。结论认为:①相对于欧洲而言,中国面临着既有利也有弊的条件,多源供应、国内生产能力、需求量增长等都是有利的因素,而市场化水平不高、基础设施薄弱、长协合同为主、一体化经营以及供应紧张等则是不利因素;②今后中国的工作重点应该是推进市场自由化、解绑行业以及推动第三方接入;③从微观方面来说,要通过建立交易枢纽、加强管网建设以及统筹发展期货现货市场等措施,在形成交易、期现货市场、价格报告机构和长期合同定价机制转型等方面夯实基础。     

Markets panic, crude goes above $80, more trouble in Nigeria

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The capture of two Israeli soldiers by Iranian-backed Hizbollah guerrillas operating out of Lebanon flared-up into a full-scale military confrontation, with Israeli attacks on Lebanon's energy infrastructure ( see 'Looking Ahead'). Oil traders, fearing a wider Middle Eastern conflagration, bid-up the price of crude oil to new record levels. Prompt WTI futures hit $78.40/bbl on 14th July and three days later, prompt IPE Brent went to a record $78.18/bbl. The outer months rose even higher, with March, April and May WTI all above $80/bbl. Iran tried to dampen the markets by saying it would not use the oil weapon in support of its Hizbollah allies, and prices eventually eased. The seaborne trade in oil in the Eastern Mediterranean was disrupted by the closure of ports in Israel and Lebanon and a rise in insurance premiums for voyages to ports nearby. Outside the Levant, markets remained well-supplied with oil.     

乙烯生产过程建模及控制和优化技术综述

结合国内乙烯生产的现状,对国内外在乙烯生产过程建模、控制和优化技术方面的研究及应用情况进行了综述,还讨论了乙烯过程控制技术发展趋势和应用前景。     

FERC Sees Generally Low Prices,Good Availability in 2016

Natural gas and electric spot and futures prices are lower than last year, consistent with expectations that energy markets are well‐positioned to manage potential challenges this winter. The US natural gas market is well‐supplied, with ample production and storage. Record‐breaking production continues despite lower rig counts, increased exports, and the collapse of oil prices. New natural gas pipeline expansions and projects to reverse flows on some pipelines will also provide more transportation capacity from producing to market areas this winter, though no capacity additions have been made in New England.     

用混凝剂处理油田污水的应用现状及展望

油田的污水主要含有大量悬浮物质、钻井液添加剂,并且呈碱性的钻井污水和含有油的采油污水,它们的处理不同于其他工业污水。所用的混凝剂要求絮凝能力更强,速度更快,产生的絮凝体体积小,在不同酸碱性的污水中同样有效等特点。为此,油田环保工作者研究开发和使用了适合油田污水处理用的混凝剂,现就这类混凝剂开发应用现状作一介绍,对它们存在的问题及今后的发展进行了评述。     

OPEC quotas unchanged, Nigeria won't sell crude and Iran can't

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices approached record levels as fears grew of a cut in production by OPEC. Partly in response to such fears, OPEC's ministers agreed in Vienna on 31st January to leave output quotas unchanged at 28 (for details of individual country quotas, see GER 'Latest Developments', July 2005). Prices fell on OPEC's decision, but futures prices for the outer months of Brent and WTI remained firm on continuing concerns of tight supplies. Market fears were primarily concentrated on Nigeria and Iran. In Nigeria, a series of incidents, including sabotage to oil installations and the killing of oil workers, led to the interruption of exports ( see 'Focus'). There were further fears of an interruption to Iranian oil exports as a result of the growing tension over Iran's nuclear programme. US President, George W Bush increased the tension when, in his State of the Union Message, he called the government there repressive. He also called on the US to make itself less dependent on Middle Eastern oil ( see GER 'Latest Developments'). Iran was reported to have assured the rest of OPEC that there would be no interruption to its oil exports as part of its dispute with the US and others; but many traders remained nervous. Some oil ministers added to market fears by calling for OPEC to cut production in support of oil prices at the cartel's next meeting, which is due on 8th March. For all the fears of oil shortages, Iran was forced to place 19of oil in storage, having failed to sell it on the international market.