Applying Stafford and Warr's reconceptualization of deterrence theory to drug driving: Can it predict those likely to offend?

In December 2007, random roadside drug testing commenced in Queensland, Australia. Subsequently, the aim of this study was to explore the preliminary impact of Queensland's drug driving legislation and enforcement techniques by applying Stafford and Warr's [Stafford, M.C., Warr, M., 1993. A reconceptualization of general and specific deterrence. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 30, 123-135] reconceptualization of deterrence theory. Completing a comprehensive drug driving questionnaire were 899 members of the public, university students, and individuals referred to a drug diversion program. Of note was that approximately a fifth of participants reported drug driving in the past six months. Additionally, the analysis indicated that punishment avoidance and vicarious punishment avoidance were predictors of the propensity to drug drive in the future. In contrast, there were indications that knowing of others apprehended for drug driving was not a sufficient deterrent. Sustained testing and publicity of the legislation and countermeasure appears needed to increase the deterrent impact for drug driving.     

Assessing specific deterrence effects of increased speeding penalties using four measures of recidivism

Traffic law enforcement sanctions can impact on road user behaviour through general and specific deterrence mechanisms. The manner in which specific deterrence can influence recidivist behaviour can be conceptualised in different ways. While any reduction in speeding will have road safety benefits, the ways in which a ‘reduction’ is determined deserves greater methodological attention and has implications for countermeasure evaluation more generally. The primary aim of this research was to assess the specific deterrent impact of penalty increases for speeding offences in Queensland, Australia, in 2003 on two cohorts of drivers detected for speeding prior to and after the penalty changes were investigated. Since the literature is relatively silent on how to assess recidivism in the speeding context, the secondary research aim was to contribute to the literature regarding ways to conceptualise and measure specific deterrence in the speeding context. We propose a novel way of operationalising four measures which reflect different ways in which a specific deterrence effect could be conceptualised: (1) the proportion of offenders who re-offended in the follow up period; (2) the overall frequency of re-offending in the follow up period; (3) the length of delay to re-offence among those who re-offended; and (4) the average number of re-offences during the follow up period among those who re-offended. Consistent with expectations, results suggested an absolute deterrent effect of penalty changes, as evidenced by significant reductions in the proportion of drivers who re-offended and the overall frequency of re-offending, although effect sizes were small. Contrary to expectations, however, there was no evidence of a marginal specific deterrent effect among those who re-offended, with a significant reduction in the length of time to re-offence and no significant change in the average number of offences committed. Additional exploratory analyses investigating potential influences of the severity of the index offence, offence history, and method of detection revealed mixed results. Access to additional data from various sources suggested that the main findings were not influenced by changes in speed enforcement activity, public awareness of penalty changes, or driving exposure during the study period. Study limitations and recommendations for future research are discussed with a view to promoting more extensive evaluations of penalty changes and better understanding of how such changes may impact on motorists’ perceptions of enforcement and sanctions, as well as on recidivist behaviour.     

Initial deterrent effects of the crackdown on drinking drivers in the state of Arizona

This paper reports the initial impact on motor vehicle crashes and casualties resulting from recent efforts to crackdown on drinking drivers in Arizona. Like similar efforts throughout the United States, Arizona lawmakers adopted tough, deterrence-based legislation as the state's chief response to heightened concern with the problem of alcohol-impaired driving. The impact of the new law was measured using interrupted time-series analysis of traffic data. The results indicated that the legal intervention had no deterrent effect. An examination of possible competing events suggested that significant deterrence of drinking and driving was achieved prior to introduction of the new law. Initiation of this effect was attributed to preexisting anti-drunk-driving publicity.     

An application of Stafford and Warr's reconceptualisation of deterrence to a group of recidivist drink drivers

Recent revisions of deterrence theory have highlighted the powerful effects of personal and vicarious punishment avoidance on criminal activity. The present paper reports on an application of Stafford and Warr's [Stafford, M.C., Warr, M., 1993. A reconceptualization of general and specific deterrence. J. Res. Crime Delinq. 30 (2), 123-135] reconceptualisation of deterrence theory to a group of recidivist drink drivers to explain their self-reported offending behaviours. The analysis indicated that punishment avoidance exerted the greatest influence on self-reported offending behaviours, although perceptions of arrest certainty and severity also appear associated with drink driving offences. In contrast, vicarious exposure to others who have been punished or avoided punishment was not associated with further drink driving behaviours. The results suggest that recidivist drink drivers are not heavily influenced by vicarious experiences, and that past behaviour is an efficient predictor of future behaviour. The findings have direct implications for the reconceptualisation and application of deterrence models to elucidate offending behaviours.     

Evaluation of red light camera enforcement in Oxnard, California

Red light cameras are increasingly being used to supplement police efforts to enforce against noncompliance with traffic signals--a substantial contributing factor in urban motor vehicle crashes. Camera enforcement is intended to modify driver behavior through both general deterrence and punishment of individual violators. A before/after quasi-experimental design with controls was employed to evaluate the influence of a red light camera enforcement program on red light violation rates in the city of Oxnard, CA. A total of 14 intersections (nine camera sites, three non-camera sites, and two control sites) were studied. Overall, the red light violation rate was reduced approximately 42% several months after the enforcement program began. Increases in driver compliance with red lights were not limited to the camera-equipped intersections but spilled over to nonequipped intersections as well. Results of public opinion surveys conducted approximately 6 weeks before, 6 weeks after, and 6 months after the camera enforcement program began indicated that nearly 80% of Oxnard residents support using red light cameras as a supplement to police efforts to enforce traffic signal laws.     

Fatal motorcycle accidents and helmet laws in Peninsular Malaysia

The objectives of this research are to determine the effect of helmet laws on fatalities associated with motor cycle accidents in Peninsular Malaysia. The prevalence of accidents and deaths occurring in the 10 groups of states of the Peninsula between 1973 and 1979 is analyzed. Differences in rates, especially the deaths/accidents, from before to after the introduction of the helmet law are emphasized. The rates accidents/1000 registrations and deaths/10,000 registrations decreased in almost all of the states after the law was introduced. There was not a uniform reduction in the rate of deaths/100 accidents after introduction of the law in individual states. However, a weighted linear regression shows that the effect of the introduction of the helmet law on deaths/accidents was significant. An odds ratio of 0.70 is the estimated risk of deaths associated with motorcycle accident after introduction of the helmet law compared with no helmet law. The 30 per cent estimated reduction in fatalities in Malaysia is similar in magnitude to that reported in the U.S.A. It is estimated that in 1979 the number of fatalities in Peninsular Malaysia was about 140 lower than could be expected without the helmet law.     

Traffic safety and the switch to a primary seat belt law: the California experience

This study explores whether the change of an existing seat belt law from secondary to primary enforcement enhances traffic safety. In particular, we examine traffic fatalities and injuries in California from 1988 to 1997. During the first half of this period, California law provided for secondary enforcement of its mandatory seat belt law, but in 1993 it upgraded the law to primary enforcement. Controlling for the number of motor vehicle collisions, a Box–Tiao intervention analysis of the time series is used to compare the monthly fatalities and injuries before and after the change in the enforcement provision. The results show that California experienced an improvement in traffic safety in terms of a significant reduction in injuries, but the change in enforcement provision had no statistically significant impact on fatalities.     

The impact on alcohol-related collisions of the partial decriminalization of impaired driving in British Columbia,Canada

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of administrative sanctions introduced as part of a new law for drinking drivers in British Columbia, Canada. The new law, known as immediate roadside prohibitions (IRP), aimed to increase the efficiency of police and courts for processing drinking drivers, thereby increasing the certainty of their being apprehended and punished. However, in order to maintain these efficiencies, sanctions under this new law largely replaced laws under the Criminal Code of Canada for Driving While Impaired (DWI) by alcohol, which had more severe penalties but lower certainty of punishment. We examined whether the intervention was related to abrupt significant declines in three types of alcohol-related collisions (i.e. fatalities, injuries or property damage only) compared to the same type of collisions without alcohol involvement.

Methods

An interrupted time series design, with a non-equivalent control was used, testing for an intervention effect. Monthly rates of the three types of collisions with and without alcohol involvement were calculated for the 15-year period before and the 1-year period after implementation of the new law. ARIMA time series analysis was conducted controlling for trend effects, seasonality, autocorrelation, and collisions without alcohol.

Results

Significant average declines (p < 0.05) in alcohol-related collisions were found as follows: 40.4% for fatal collisions, 23.4% for injury collisions and 19.5% for property damage only collisions. No significant effects were found for any of the three comparable non-alcohol-related types of collisions.

Conclusions

These results suggest that provincial law of administrative sanctions for drinking drivers and associated publicity was more effective for minimizing alcohol-related collisions than laws under the Canadian Criminal Code.     

Patterns of safety belt usage following introduction of a safety belt wearing law

The paper reviews the process of enacting a safety belt wearing law in Israel, and studies the impact it has had on belt usage and on casualty reductions. Safety belt legislation in Israel had several unique features in that, on the one hand, all passenger vehicles were retrofitted with safety belts, but, on the other hand, it exempted drivers and front-seat passengers of pre-1969 model vehicles from the compulsory use of belts. Also, the legislation applied only to the use of belts on interurban roads. Repeated counts of safety belt usage, before and after the implementation of the law, provided strong evidence for the efficacy of the legislative act as such. Usage rates rose from an average of 6% to upward of 70%. There was a marked carryover effect of the law on belt wearing rates on urban roads and on the use by drivers of pre-1969 model cars. However, this effect diminished with time. Results of a questionnaire survey provided further evidence for the general acceptance of the law by the public. Only a small minority of drivers completely rejected the use of safety belts. A comparison with data from other countries shows that the impact of a compulsory safety belt wearing law on safety belt usage and on casualty reduction is a universal phenomenon. This fact should encourage researchers, legislators and adminstrators in jurisdictions which are still deliberating the value of mandatory safety belt legislation. On the basis of the trends in fatalities and casualties to car drivers and passengers on urban roads during the two and one-half year period following the introduction of the seat belt law, it is estimated that a reduction of 42% in car fatalities and 44% in car passengers occurred on interurban roads during those two and one-half years. The corresponding reductions in casualties were 18% and eight percent respectively.     

Motorcyclist fatalities and the repeal of mandatory helmet wearing laws

Previous studies had estimated that repeal of mandatory helmet wearing laws resulted in increases in the number of fatalities ranging from nearly 40% to essentially zero. This study was performed to determine more definitively the influence on motorcyclist fatalities of these repeals. After repeal, motorcyclist fatalities increased more in the states which repealed their laws than in those which did not in 24 cases out of 26, with the 95% confidence interval for the average effect being 25 +/- 6%. It is therefore concluded that repeals of mandatory helmet wearing laws for motorcyclists were followed by substantial increases in motorcyclist fatalities.     

Road safety impact of Ontario street racing and stunt driving law

Objective

The purpose of this study was to conduct a process and outcome evaluation of the deterrent impact of Ontario's street racing and stunt driving legislation which came into effect on September 30, 2007, on collision casualties defined as injuries and fatalities. It was hypothesized that because males, especially young ones, are much more likely to engage in speeding, street racing and stunt driving, the new law would have more impact in reducing speeding-related collision casualties in males when compared to females.

Methods

Interrupted time series analysis with ARIMA modelling was applied to the monthly speeding-related collision casualties in Ontario for the period of January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2010, separately for young male drivers 16–25 years of age (primary intervention group), mature male drivers 26–65 years of age (secondary intervention group), young female drivers 16–25 years of age (primary comparison group) and mature female drivers 26–65 years of age (secondary comparison group). A covariate adjustment using non-speeding casualties was included.

Results

A significant intervention effect was found for young male drivers with, on average, 58 fewer collision casualties per month, but not for mature male drivers, when non-speeding casualties were controlled for. No corresponding effect was observed in either comparison (females) group.

Conclusion

These findings indicate a reduction in speeding-related casualties among young males of 58 fewer casualties per month subsequent to the introduction of Ontario's street racing and stunt driving legislation and suggest the presence of a general deterrent effect.     

Seat belt utilization in Saudi Arabia and its impact on road accident injuries

Most industrialized countries and many developing countries have passed laws that require the use of seat belts in motor vehicles. It is widely believed that seat belt use is an effective way to reduce road accident fatalities and injuries. Saudi Arabia joined these countries when it enacted a similar law on 5 December 2000 making seat belt use compulsory for all drivers and front-seat passengers. This study measures seat belt use rate and its impact on the number of road accident injuries during the first few months that followed the enactment of the law. It also investigates drivers' behaviour and personal characteristics and their relationship with using seat belts by using a questionnaire specially prepared for this purpose. Results show that seat belt use rate in two Riyadh suburbs were 33% and 87%, respectively, for drivers and 4% and 41%, respectively, for front-seat passengers (FSP's). Such belt use rates are considered low yet encouraging when compared with use rates before enacting the law. Results also show that there was a significant drop in certain types of injuries due to traffic accidents after the enactment of the seat belt law. Questionnaire results show that certain personal characteristics were correlated with seat belt use rate. Finally, implications of these findings in terms of future plans for improving traffic safety are discussed.     

Impact of BAC limit reduction on different population segments: a Poisson fixed effect analysis

Over the past few decades, several countries enacted the reduction of the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit, often alongside the administrative license revocation or suspension, to battle drinking-and-driving behavior. Several researchers investigated the effectiveness of these policies by applying different analysis procedures, while assuming population homogeneity in responding to these laws.

The present analysis focuses on the evaluation of the impact of BAC limit reduction on different population segments. Poisson regression models, adapted to account for possible observation dependence over time and state specific effects, are estimated to measure the reduction of the number of alcohol-related accidents and fatalities for single-vehicle accidents in 22 U.S. jurisdictions over a period of 15 years starting in 1990.

Model estimates demonstrate that, for alcohol-related single-vehicle crashes, (i) BAC laws are more effective in terms of reduction of number of casualties rather than number of accidents, (ii) women and elderly population exhibit higher law compliance with respect to men and to young adult and adult population, respectively, and (iii) the presence of passengers in the vehicle enhances the sense of responsibility of the driver.     

Preventing cannabis users from driving under the influence of cannabis

Face-to-face, structured interviews were conducted with 320 recent cannabis users in New South Wales, Australia to assess the likely deterrent effects of (a) increasing the certainty of apprehension for driving under the influence of cannabis (DUIC) and (b) doubling the severity of penalties for DUIC. Participants were presented with a drug-driving scenario and asked to indicate their likelihood of driving given that scenario. The perceived risk of apprehension and severity of punishment were manipulated in each scenario to create four different certainty/severity conditions and participants were randomly allocated to one of these four groups. A subsidiary aim was to assess the likely impact of providing factual information about the accident risk associated with DUIC. Recent drug drivers who felt at low risk of accident when DUIC were asked to rate their willingness to drive if convinced that it was dangerous. The results suggested that increasing the certainty but not severity of punishment would produce reductions in cannabis-intoxicated driving among recent cannabis users. Providing factual information about the risks associated with DUIC would appear to have little impact on drug-driving rates among this population.     

Should traffic enforcement be unpredictable? The case of red light cameras in Edmonton

Red light cameras are installed in many jurisdictions around the world to improve road safety by discouraging red light running behaviour at signalized intersections. In many jurisdictions, a smaller number of cameras are rotated among a larger number of locations to increase the effectiveness of the red light camera programs. This study outlines some arguments for deciding the best deployment strategy that can be used to rotate these cameras, focusing on the deterrent effects of enforcement and punishment on driver behaviour. A simple on-road experiment is then conducted to determine the effectiveness of three different rotation schemes. Our results suggest that not moving the cameras and keeping enforcement predictable yields a lower average violation rate than moving the cameras around and making enforcement uncertain.     

The effectiveness of alcohol control policies on alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the United States

Multiple alcohol control policies have been enacted since the early 1980s to keep drunk drivers off the roads and to prevent more alcohol-related traffic fatalities. In this paper, we analyze nine traffic policies to determine the extent to which each policy contributes to effective alcohol-related fatality prevention. Compared with the existing literature, this paper addresses a more comprehensive set of traffic policies. In addition, we used a panel GLS model that holds regional effects and state-specific time effects constant to analyze their impact on alcohol-related fatalities with two distinct rates: alcohol-related traffic deaths per capita and alcohol-related traffic deaths per total traffic deaths. While per capita alcohol-related traffic deaths is used more often in other studies, alcohol-related traffic deaths per total traffic deaths better reflects the impact of policies on deterring drunk driving. In addition, regional analyses were conducted to determine the policies that are more effective in certain regions. The findings of this study suggest that zero tolerance laws and increased beer taxes are the most effective policies in reducing alcohol-related fatalities in all regions.     

Preliminary estimates of the effects of mandatory seat belt use laws

Analyses of motor vehicle fatality counts in New York and several comparison states for the years 1980 through 1985 indicate that New York's seat belt use law reduced fatalities by about nine percent during the first nine months of the law. This estimate is preliminary, and the estimated long-term effect of the law could change as more sophisticated analyses are applied to the data and as belt use changes (it had declined to less than 50 percent over most of the state by the end of the first year of the law). In addition, New York's law is one of the strongest in terms of enforceability, and the effect may be smaller in states with weaker laws. However, the estimated effect in New York is consistent with the experience of other countries with seat belt use laws.     

The relationship of alcohol safety laws to drinking drivers in fatal crashes

This paper presents an analysis of the relationships between the passage of key alcohol safety laws and the number of drinking drivers in fatal crashes. The study evaluated three major alcohol safety laws--administrative license revocation laws, 0.10 illegal per se, and 0.08 illegal per se laws--on the proportion of drinking drivers in fatal crashes. Drivers aged 21 and older in fatal crashes at two BAC levels--0.01-0.09 and 0.10 or greater--were considered separately. Drivers under age 21 were not included because they are affected by the Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) law. This study used data on drinking drivers in fatal crashes from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) covering 16 years (1982-1997) for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Also included in the study were such variables as per capita alcohol consumption and annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which could affect the number of alcohol-related crashes. The results indicate that each of the three laws had a significant relationship to the downward trend in alcohol-related fatal crashes in the United States over that period. This paper points out that this long-term trend is not the product of a single law. Instead, it is the result of the growing impact of several laws over time plus the affect of some factors not included in the model tested (such as the increasing use of sobriety checkpoints and the media's attention to the drinking-and-driving problem).     

Al_2O_3/B_4C的致密化机制

初始晶粒尺寸为0.33μm和7.0μm的Al2O3/14%B4C粉末在不同温度烧结,并模拟计算陶瓷粉末烧结过程。通过对比实验结果和计算结果,找出影响材料致密化的机制,讨论晶粒尺寸对扩散机制的影响,并估算出致密化激活能。在实验烧结温度范围内,界面反应被认为是影响Al2O3/B4C粉末致密化过程的主要因素。Al2O3/14%B4C陶瓷的致密化激活能是1820±60KJ.mol-1,这结果很大程度上支持界面反应致密化机制。