Transition to hydrogen-based transportation in China: Lessons learned from alternative fuel vehicle programs in the United States and China

This paper examines the experience of existing alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) programs in the US and China to provide insights into appropriate strategies for developing hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure in China. Although an increasing number of AFVs have been deployed in recent years, various factors have limited this progress, such as large sunk investments in conventional technologies, limited networks of refueling stations, the typically higher cost of AFVs, and the relatively low price of oil. Given these barriers, and additional barriers specific to hydrogen, a transition to hydrogen will be a slow process, and must be supported by both near- and long-term policies that have clear and measurable goals that take hydrogen beyond fleet applications into broader vehicle markets. Because a transition to hydrogen vehicles will not occur quickly, it is necessary for the government to have consistent and integrated transportation policies combining short- and long-term goals. These policies should draw upon resources from both governments and multinational companies to provide incentives for vehicle purchases, promote investment in infrastructure, and disseminate information to raise public awareness. Multinationals may find China to be an ideal testing ground for innovative hydrogen vehicles with appropriate incentive policies and programs.     

The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and Executive Order 13149: Proposed compliance strategies and process improvements for federal agencies

Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), 75 percent of Light Duty Vehicle acquisitions by federal agencies must be Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). EPAct's intent was to reduce United States reliance on oil imports, with federal agencies assuming a leadership role in acquiring AFVs and using alternative fuel in those AFVs. Executive Order (E.O.) 13149, issued in 2000, required federal agencies to reduce petroleum consumption 20 percent relative to a 1999 baseline and use alternative fuels the majority of the time in their AFVs by 2005. Most federal agencies met the EPAct 75 percent acquisition requirement in 2004, however, most will not achieve the petroleum reduction and alternative fuel use requirements. Frequently, federal agencies acquire the relatively expensive AFVs and then fuel those vehicles with gasoline. Besides wasting taxpayer dollars, this approach does not meet the intent of EPAct. It was surmised that federal agencies lack an objective, quantitative methodology for AFV acquisitions and Executive Order 13149 compliance. Several types of optimization models were constructed, using the United States Navy as a test case, for models focusing on EPAct and/or E.O. 13149 compliance. Results of a tiered set of models indicate there are efficiencies that federal agencies could take advantage of when developing EPAct and E.O. 13149 compliance strategies that are not currently being exploited.     

Life cycle cost analysis of a car,a city bus and an intercity bus powertrain for year 2005 and 2020

The international economy, in the beginning of the 20th century, is characterized by uncertainty about the supply and the price of oil. Together with the fast decrease of electrical propulsion component prices, it becomes more and more cost effective to develop vehicles with alternative powertrains. This paper focuses on two questions: Are alternative powertrains especially cost effective for specific applications?; How does an increased fossil fuel price influences the choose of powertrain? To assess these questions, a computer tool named THEPS, developed in a Ph.D. project, is used. Three applications and three scenarios are analysed. The applications, a car, a city bus and an intercity bus, are vehicles all assumed to operate in Sweden. One scenario represents year 2005, the other two year 2020. The two future scenarios are characterized by different fossil fuel prices. The study, presented in the paper, indicates that alternative powertrains can be competitive from a cost perspective, in some applications, already in year 2005. It is for example cost effective to equip a city bus, running in countries with a high fuel price, with a hybrid powertrain. The study also indicates that pure electric, hybrid and/or fuel cell cars will probably be a more cost effective choice than conventional cars in year 2020. Another indication is that it will not be clear which powertrain concept to choose. The reason is that many cost effective powertrain concepts will be offered. The best choice will depend on the application.     

A systems approach to improving fleet policy compliance within the US Federal Government

To reduce dependence on foreign sources of energy, address climate change, and improve environmental quality, the US government has established a goal of reducing petroleum fuel use in its federal agencies. To this end, the government requires its agencies to purchase alternative fuel vehicles, use alternative fuel, and adopt other strategies to reduce petroleum consumption. Compliance with these requirements, while important, creates challenges for federal fleet managers who oversee large, geographically dispersed fleets. In this study, a group of 25 experienced federal fleet managers participated in a pilot study using a structured methodology for developing strategies to comply with fleet requirements while using agency resources as efficiently as possible. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to identify and quantify agency priorities in combination with a linear programming model to optimize the purchase of fleet vehicles. The method was successful in quantifying tradeoffs and decreasing the amount of time required to develop fleet management strategies. As such, it is recommended to federal agencies as a standard tool for the development of these strategies in the future.     

Life cycle cost analysis of alternative vehicles and fuels in Thailand

High crude oil prices and pollution problems have drawn attention to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels for the transportation sector. The question is: What are the benefits/costs of these technologies for society? To answer this question in a quantitative way, a web-based model (http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com) has been developed to calculate the societal life cycle costs, the consumer life cycle costs and the tax for different vehicle technologies. By comparing these costs it is possible to draw conclusions about the social benefit and the related tax structure. The model should help to guide decisions toward optimality, which refers to maximum social benefit. The model was applied to the case of Thailand. The life cycle cost of 13 different alternative vehicle technologies in Thailand have been calculated and the tax structure analyzed.     

中型生物质气化发电CDM项目案例分析

以广东省生物质气化发电技术应用为清洁发展机制(CDM)项目案例,基于3个基准线,应用增量成本分析方法,计算了中型生物质气化发电作为CDM项目的单位碳减排成本,并对其进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,CDM项目的单位碳减排成本在10-36美元/tCO2之间,且年处理生物质量为0.99-2.97万t时能实现年CO2减排量在1705-6038 tCO2/a之间。     

Comparative economic and environmental benefits of ownership of both new and used light duty hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Japan

We present a novel study of the differential total costs of ownership and marginal cost of life cycle emissions abatement for owners of both new and used light duty fuel cell and internal combustion engine vehicles in Japan. We find the emergence of used FCVs in the fleet significantly improves the economic and emissions savings over ICEVs. The cumulative life cycle GHG emissions reductions rapidly increase when FCVs exceed 55%–70% of total LDVs. Life cycle emissions in the vehicle fleet increase 40% if hydrogen is produced from SMR with CCS rather than from solar or wind based electrolysis. Fuel cell cost and electrolyser efficiency are key factors in achieving benefits. Finally, if the early time growth of FCVs to 2030 can be maintained near 50% the government 2050 emissions reduction target of 80% reduction from a 2013 base can be achieved.     

Government policy and the development of electric vehicles in Japan

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role that the Japanese Government has played in the development of alternatives to conventional vehicles, the effect of government programmes, and the importance of technical flexibility in government support schemes. The focus is on battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles.     

Design and implementation of carbon cap and dividend policies

An important concept in discussions of carbon management policies is cap and dividend, where some fraction of the revenues of an auction on emission allowances is returned to citizens on an equal per capita basis. This policy tool has some important features; it emphasizes the fact that the atmosphere is a common property resource, and it is a highly transparent measure that can be effectively used to protect the income of low-income individuals. In this paper we examine this policy in the California context, and focus on the costs and impacts of a cap and dividend scheme when applied to carbon emissions associated with electricity, natural gas and transportation services. We find that cap and dividend can effectively be used to address the economic impacts of carbon management policies, making them progressive for the lowest-income members of society. We find that the majority of households receive positive net benefits from the policy even with the government retaining half of the auction revenue. If auction revenues are instead dedicated only to low-income households, the majority of low-income households can be fully compensated even with the state government retaining upwards of 90% of auction revenues for other purposes.     

Decoupling urban transport from GHG emissions in Indian cities—A critical review and perspectives

How to sustain rapid economic and urban growth with minimised detriment to environment is a key challenge for sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries, which face constraints of technical and financial resources scarcity as well as dearth of infrastructure governance capacity. This paper attempts to address this question by investigating the driving forces of transport demand and relevant policy measures that facilitate mitigating GHG emissions in the urban transport sector in Indian cities based on a critical review of the literature. Our overview of existing literature and international experiences suggests that it is critical to improve urban governance in transport infrastructure quality and develop efficient public transport, coupled with integrated land use/transport planning as well as economic instruments. This will allow Indian cities to embark on a sustainable growth pathway by decoupling transport services demand of GHG emissions in the longer term. Appropriate policy instruments need to be selected to reconcile the imperatives of economic and urban growth, aspiration to higher quality of life, improvements in social welfare, urban transport-related energy consumption and GHG emissions mitigation target in Indian cities.     

城市生活垃圾焚烧发电CDM项目案例分析

本文分析评价了我国城市生活垃圾的产生量、资源量、国内外垃圾焚烧技术应用状况、制约我国城市生活垃圾焚烧技术应用的主要因素以及垃圾焚烧发电技术应用潜力。本研究以城市生活垃圾焚烧发电技术为案例,基于三个基准线,应用增量成本分析方法,计算了垃圾焚烧发电作为CDM(清洁发展机制)项目的单位碳减排成本并对其进行了敏感性分析,提出城市生活垃圾焚烧发电技术应作为我国与发达国家进行CDM项目合作的优先技术领域。     

ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies

Energy models are considered as valuable tools to assess the impact of various energy and environment policies. The ACROPOLIS initiative, supported by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency, used up to 15 energy models to simulate and evaluate selected policy measures and instruments and then compare their impacts on energy systems essentially in terms of costs of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction and energy technology choice. Four case studies are formulated considering policies and measures on renewable portfolio schemes and internationally tradable green certificates, emissions trading and global GHG abatement target, energy efficiency standards and internalisation of external costs. The main focus of the project is on the electricity sector. From a large set of quantified results, ACROPOLIS provides an international scientific consensus, on some key issues, which could be useful in assessing and designing energy and environment policies at the world, European and national/regional levels. It concludes that the Kyoto targets (and their continuation beyond 2010 in specific scenarios) could be achieved at a cost around 1% of GDP through global emissions trading, indicating also that this flexibility mechanism is a more cost-effective instrument for GHG mitigation than meeting the goal domestically without trade. It demonstrates that internalising external costs through a price increase reduces local pollutants (SO_x, NO_x, and others) and it produces other benefits such as triggering the penetration of clean technologies in addition to the curbing of CO₂ emissions.     

Alternative fuel buses currently in use in China: Life-cycle fossil energy use,GHG emissions and policy recommendations

The Chinese government has enacted policies to promote alternative vehicle fuels (AVFs) and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), including city bus fleets. The life cycle (LC), energy savings (ES) and GHG reduction (GR) profiles of AVFs/AFVs are critical to those policy decisions. The well-to-wheels module of the Tsinghua-CA3EM model is employed to investigate actual performance data. Compared with conventional buses, AFVs offer differences in performance in terms of both ES and GR. Only half of the AFVs analyzed demonstrate dual benefits. However, all non-oil/gas pathways can substitute oil/gas with coal. Current policies seek to promote technology improvements and market creation initiatives within the guiding framework of national-level diversification and district-level uniformity. Combined with their actual LC behavior and in keeping with near- and long-term strategies, integrated policies should seek to (1) apply hybrid electric technology to diesel buses; (2) encourage NG/LPG buses in gas-abundant cities; (3) promote commercialize electric buses or plug-in capable vehicles through battery technology innovation; (4) support fuel cell buses and hydrogen technology R&D for future potential applications; and (5) conduct further research on boosting vehicle fuel efficiency, applying low-carbon transportation technologies, and addressing all resultant implications of coal-based transportation solutions to human health and natural resources.     

Inserting renewable fuels and technologies for transport in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

This article describes three future scenarios for the potential reduction of CO₂ emissions and associated costs when biogenic ethanol blends and oxygenates are substituted for gasoline, and hybrid, flex fuel and fuel cell technologies are introduced in passenger automobiles (including pickups and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs)) in the densely populated Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), analyzed up to the year 2030. A reference (REF) scenario is constructed in which most automobiles are driven by internal combustion engines (ICE) fuelled by gasoline. In the first alternative scenario (ALT1), hybrid electric-ICE gasoline-fuelled cars are introduced in 2006. In the same year, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) is introduced as a replacement for methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) oxygenate for gasoline. In the second alternative scenario (ALT2), in addition to the changes introduced in ALT1, flex fuel ICE technology fuelled by E85 is introduced in 2008 and electric motor vehicles driven by direct ethanol fuel cells (DEFC) fuelled by E100 in 2013. A comparison between the reference and alternate scenarios shows that while the total number of vehicles is the same in each scenario, energy consumption decreases by 9% (ALT1) and 17% (ALT2), the total non-biogenic CO₂ emissions drop by 15% (ALT1) and 34% (ALT2), CO₂ mitigation cost is 140.14 $US1997/ton CO₂ (ALT2), and ALT1 has savings and is considered a “no regrets” scenario.     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures.

This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO₂ mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka.     

Understanding developing country stances on post-2012 climate change negotiations: Comparative analysis of Brazil,China, India,Mexico, and South Africa

An essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board. This paper proposes and applies the two-level interest-based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the “Plus Five” countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa) on international climate negotiations. This study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub-factors as per capita income, energy endowment, and economic structure, while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs, sea-level rise, climate-related natural disasters, and others. The paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the Plus Five are likely to adopt. The paper suggests that the “Basic Four” (the Plus Five excluding Mexico), particularly China and India, are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than Mexico, which has the highest mitigation capability among all five. The Basic Four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities, suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries.     

国内车用发动机代用燃料研究综述

综合介绍了国内有关天然气、液化石油气、乳化柴油这几种车用发动机代用燃料的研究情况;并认为以压缩天然气作为代用燃料的车用发动机将在大、中城市得到推广。     

Comparative assessment of future motor vehicles under various climate change mitigation scenarios

The aim of comparative assessment of future road transport technologies is to find the cheapest motor vehicles in terms of private and external Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission costs under various international climate change mitigation scenarios in 2020 and 2050. The comparative assessment of the main road transport technologies ranging from conventional vehicles to hybrid electric vehicles was performed. The main indicators for comparative future motor vehicles assessment are: private costs and life cycle external costs of GHG emissions. The obtained ranking of road transport technologies allows to identify the most perspective future motor vehicles taking into account international climate change mitigation constraints and to promote these road technologies by policy tools. The cheapest road transport technologies in 2020 and 2050 are: the main results presented in this paper were obtained during EU financed Framework 7 project “PLANETS” dealing with probabilistic long-term assessment of new energy technology scenarios.