Transition to hydrogen-based transportation in China: Lessons learned from alternative fuel vehicle programs in the United States and China

This paper examines the experience of existing alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) programs in the US and China to provide insights into appropriate strategies for developing hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure in China. Although an increasing number of AFVs have been deployed in recent years, various factors have limited this progress, such as large sunk investments in conventional technologies, limited networks of refueling stations, the typically higher cost of AFVs, and the relatively low price of oil. Given these barriers, and additional barriers specific to hydrogen, a transition to hydrogen will be a slow process, and must be supported by both near- and long-term policies that have clear and measurable goals that take hydrogen beyond fleet applications into broader vehicle markets. Because a transition to hydrogen vehicles will not occur quickly, it is necessary for the government to have consistent and integrated transportation policies combining short- and long-term goals. These policies should draw upon resources from both governments and multinational companies to provide incentives for vehicle purchases, promote investment in infrastructure, and disseminate information to raise public awareness. Multinationals may find China to be an ideal testing ground for innovative hydrogen vehicles with appropriate incentive policies and programs.     

A review on the natural gas potential of Pakistan for the transition to a low-carbon future

Natural gas is the world’s fastest growing and widely used fossil fuel which can be targeted for transitioning to a low-carbon future. Pakistan was ranked at seventh position among the utmost harmfully affected countries by climate change. It is, therefore, important to develop an effective energy policy toward the reduction of greenhouse gases in the country. This study evaluates the Pakistan’s natural gas industry development by reviewing reserves, production, consumption, infrastructures, and natural gas agreements in place. The total proven natural gas reserve of Pakistan is estimated to be 0.5 Tcm by the end of 2016. There are many active fields in Pakistan among which Sui gas reservoir is the largest. Currently, Pakistan’s natural gas industry is well matured with average size reserves, production capacity, and advanced and organized infrastructure for transmission and distribution network. Therefore, natural gas can be used to feed different sectors of the country, to decrease the financial burden of importing oil, and to reduce CO₂ emissions. However, increasing the gap of demand–supply for natural gas in the future, declining the average gas reserves, and postponing the gas import may challenge the natural gas industry, climate, and performance of Pakistan’s economy. Thus, these concerns must be addressed to help the natural gas industry for an easy transition to a low-carbon future.     

The role of hydrogen in the transition from a petroleum economy to a low-carbon society

A radical decarbonization pathway for the Norwegian society towards 2050 is presented. The paper focuses on the role of hydrogen in the transition, when present Norwegian petroleum export is gradually phased out. The study is in line with EU initiatives to secure cooperation opportunities with neighbouring countries to establish an international hydrogen market. Three analytical perspectives are combined. The first uses energy models to investigate the role of hydrogen in an energy and power market perspective, without considering hydrogen export. The second, uses an economic equilibrium model to examine the potential role of hydrogen export in value creation. The third analysis is a socio-technical case study on the drivers and barriers for hydrogen production in Norway. Main conclusions are that access to renewable power and hydrogen are prerequisites for decarbonization of transport and industrial sectors in Norway, and that hydrogen is a key to maintain a high level of economic activity. Structural changes in the economy, impacts of new technologies, and key enablers and barriers in this transition are discussed.     

Decoupling urban transport from GHG emissions in Indian cities—A critical review and perspectives

How to sustain rapid economic and urban growth with minimised detriment to environment is a key challenge for sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries, which face constraints of technical and financial resources scarcity as well as dearth of infrastructure governance capacity. This paper attempts to address this question by investigating the driving forces of transport demand and relevant policy measures that facilitate mitigating GHG emissions in the urban transport sector in Indian cities based on a critical review of the literature. Our overview of existing literature and international experiences suggests that it is critical to improve urban governance in transport infrastructure quality and develop efficient public transport, coupled with integrated land use/transport planning as well as economic instruments. This will allow Indian cities to embark on a sustainable growth pathway by decoupling transport services demand of GHG emissions in the longer term. Appropriate policy instruments need to be selected to reconcile the imperatives of economic and urban growth, aspiration to higher quality of life, improvements in social welfare, urban transport-related energy consumption and GHG emissions mitigation target in Indian cities.     

Life cycle cost analysis of a car,a city bus and an intercity bus powertrain for year 2005 and 2020

The international economy, in the beginning of the 20th century, is characterized by uncertainty about the supply and the price of oil. Together with the fast decrease of electrical propulsion component prices, it becomes more and more cost effective to develop vehicles with alternative powertrains. This paper focuses on two questions: Are alternative powertrains especially cost effective for specific applications?; How does an increased fossil fuel price influences the choose of powertrain? To assess these questions, a computer tool named THEPS, developed in a Ph.D. project, is used. Three applications and three scenarios are analysed. The applications, a car, a city bus and an intercity bus, are vehicles all assumed to operate in Sweden. One scenario represents year 2005, the other two year 2020. The two future scenarios are characterized by different fossil fuel prices. The study, presented in the paper, indicates that alternative powertrains can be competitive from a cost perspective, in some applications, already in year 2005. It is for example cost effective to equip a city bus, running in countries with a high fuel price, with a hybrid powertrain. The study also indicates that pure electric, hybrid and/or fuel cell cars will probably be a more cost effective choice than conventional cars in year 2020. Another indication is that it will not be clear which powertrain concept to choose. The reason is that many cost effective powertrain concepts will be offered. The best choice will depend on the application.     

Inserting renewable fuels and technologies for transport in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

This article describes three future scenarios for the potential reduction of CO₂ emissions and associated costs when biogenic ethanol blends and oxygenates are substituted for gasoline, and hybrid, flex fuel and fuel cell technologies are introduced in passenger automobiles (including pickups and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs)) in the densely populated Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), analyzed up to the year 2030. A reference (REF) scenario is constructed in which most automobiles are driven by internal combustion engines (ICE) fuelled by gasoline. In the first alternative scenario (ALT1), hybrid electric-ICE gasoline-fuelled cars are introduced in 2006. In the same year, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) is introduced as a replacement for methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) oxygenate for gasoline. In the second alternative scenario (ALT2), in addition to the changes introduced in ALT1, flex fuel ICE technology fuelled by E85 is introduced in 2008 and electric motor vehicles driven by direct ethanol fuel cells (DEFC) fuelled by E100 in 2013. A comparison between the reference and alternate scenarios shows that while the total number of vehicles is the same in each scenario, energy consumption decreases by 9% (ALT1) and 17% (ALT2), the total non-biogenic CO₂ emissions drop by 15% (ALT1) and 34% (ALT2), CO₂ mitigation cost is 140.14 $US1997/ton CO₂ (ALT2), and ALT1 has savings and is considered a “no regrets” scenario.     

A multi-source multi-product internal reforming fuel cell energy system as a stepping stone in the transition towards a more sustainable energy and transport sector

This paper explores the innovative concept of flexible poly-generation of hydrogen, power and heat using an internal reforming fuel cell. Flow sheet calculations show that total efficiency of the system in terms of hydrogen and power production can be increased significantly up to 90%. Furthermore by the coproduction of hydrogen, operation at double power density becomes feasible. The concept does not suffer from small demand in the beginning of the transition, because of its ability 1) to produce flexibly according to demand, 2) to continuously produce one or more valuable products also at low demand for one of the other products. The concept also overcomes one of the main hurdles of cogeneration namely that it requires heat driven operation in order to really obtain its high efficiency in practice. The flexible poly-generation concept is analyzed to be an important stepping stone in the transition towards a sustainable energy and transport sector.     

A systems approach to improving fleet policy compliance within the US Federal Government

To reduce dependence on foreign sources of energy, address climate change, and improve environmental quality, the US government has established a goal of reducing petroleum fuel use in its federal agencies. To this end, the government requires its agencies to purchase alternative fuel vehicles, use alternative fuel, and adopt other strategies to reduce petroleum consumption. Compliance with these requirements, while important, creates challenges for federal fleet managers who oversee large, geographically dispersed fleets. In this study, a group of 25 experienced federal fleet managers participated in a pilot study using a structured methodology for developing strategies to comply with fleet requirements while using agency resources as efficiently as possible. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to identify and quantify agency priorities in combination with a linear programming model to optimize the purchase of fleet vehicles. The method was successful in quantifying tradeoffs and decreasing the amount of time required to develop fleet management strategies. As such, it is recommended to federal agencies as a standard tool for the development of these strategies in the future.     

Prospects for hydrogen as a transport fuel

Early forecasts for hydrogen's role in transport usually proved over-optimistic, with several seeing hydrogen as an important transport fuel by year 2010 or even much earlier. Over the past century, vehicular passenger transport has experienced hypergrowth in terms of task, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. For a variety of reasons, future decades may well see a significantly reduced global passenger transport task, as well as a widespread phasing-out of internal combustion engine vehicles, especially in cities. In contrast, the global freight transport task is unlikely to decline much, and could even grow, so that freight transport will dominate total transport energy use. Even if the world does finally respond seriously to climate change, likely policies will not favour hydrogen for private passenger vehicles for many decades. Nevertheless, hydrogen has clear superiority over electric vehicles for heavy freight transport. Given this advantage, it may be desirable to promote hydrogen for freight well before large amounts of renewable hydrogen are available from surplus intermittent renewable energy electricity.     

The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and Executive Order 13149: Proposed compliance strategies and process improvements for federal agencies

Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), 75 percent of Light Duty Vehicle acquisitions by federal agencies must be Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). EPAct's intent was to reduce United States reliance on oil imports, with federal agencies assuming a leadership role in acquiring AFVs and using alternative fuel in those AFVs. Executive Order (E.O.) 13149, issued in 2000, required federal agencies to reduce petroleum consumption 20 percent relative to a 1999 baseline and use alternative fuels the majority of the time in their AFVs by 2005. Most federal agencies met the EPAct 75 percent acquisition requirement in 2004, however, most will not achieve the petroleum reduction and alternative fuel use requirements. Frequently, federal agencies acquire the relatively expensive AFVs and then fuel those vehicles with gasoline. Besides wasting taxpayer dollars, this approach does not meet the intent of EPAct. It was surmised that federal agencies lack an objective, quantitative methodology for AFV acquisitions and Executive Order 13149 compliance. Several types of optimization models were constructed, using the United States Navy as a test case, for models focusing on EPAct and/or E.O. 13149 compliance. Results of a tiered set of models indicate there are efficiencies that federal agencies could take advantage of when developing EPAct and E.O. 13149 compliance strategies that are not currently being exploited.     

China in the transition to a low-carbon economy

China, from its own perspective cannot afford to and, from an international perspective, is not allowed to continue on the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. Instead, China needs to transform its economy to effectively address concern about a range of environmental problems from burning fossil fuels and steeply rising oil import and international pressure on it to exhibit greater ambition in fighting global climate change. This paper first discusses China’s own efforts towards energy saving and pollutants cutting, the widespread use of renewable energy and participation in clean development mechanism, and puts carbon reductions of China’s unilateral actions into perspective. Given that that transition to a low carbon economy cannot take place overnight, the paper then discusses China’s policies on promoting the use of clean coal technologies and nuclear power. Based on these discussions, the paper provides some recommendations on issues related to energy conservation and pollution control, wind power, nuclear power and clean coal technologies and articulates a roadmap for China regarding its climate commitments to 2050.     

Life cycle cost analysis of alternative vehicles and fuels in Thailand

High crude oil prices and pollution problems have drawn attention to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels for the transportation sector. The question is: What are the benefits/costs of these technologies for society? To answer this question in a quantitative way, a web-based model (http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com) has been developed to calculate the societal life cycle costs, the consumer life cycle costs and the tax for different vehicle technologies. By comparing these costs it is possible to draw conclusions about the social benefit and the related tax structure. The model should help to guide decisions toward optimality, which refers to maximum social benefit. The model was applied to the case of Thailand. The life cycle cost of 13 different alternative vehicle technologies in Thailand have been calculated and the tax structure analyzed.     

Energy access and transition to cleaner cooking fuels and technologies in Sri Lanka: Issues and policy limitations

Easy energy access is a trigger for human, social, and economic development. A research project was undertaken in Sri Lanka to broaden the understanding of human dimension of energy access and technologies. A questionnaire survey, covering 2269 households, gathered data on socio-economic contexts and issues influencing a transition towards clean cooking facilities. The findings reveal that the transition is impeded by four factors: the lack of motivation and the pressure for switching over to cleaner facilities, the lack of modern energy technology options, the financial risks, and the lack of financing and other support. The paper describes the delicate two-way interrelation between women earning wages and the transitions to cleaner cooking fuels and technologies. The findings suggest the need for a policy framework involving the stakeholders, financing and standardised technologies. To make a change it is proposed to introduce a national, integrated policy incorporating financing and energy governance.     

Hypercars: Speeding the transition to solar hydrogen

A discontinuous transformation now underway in automotive technology may accelerate the transition to transportation powered by solar hydrogen. Even using internal-combustion engines, ultralight, ultraslippery, advanced-composite, hybrid-electric “hypercars” can be severalfold lighter and lower-drag than present steel cars; many times more efficient; and over two orders of magnitude cleaner; yet equally safe, sporty, comfortable, durable, beautiful and (probably) affordable. The required design integration is technically and culturally difficult. Yet important manufacturing advantages permit a free-market commercialization strategy impelled not by government mandates or subsidies but by manufacturers' quest for competitive advantage and customers' desire for superior cars.Proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are promising even for heavy and high-drag hybrid cars because they can convert hydrogen into traction severalfold more efficiently than today's drivelines convert gasoline. But hypercars would need significantly fewer kilowatts of power, and could therefore adopt PEMFCs earlier—before their specific cost, mass, and volume mature. The resulting high production volumes could quickly cut PEMFCs' costs enough to displace a significant portion of thermal power stations, either in stationary applications or by plugging in parked hypercars. This potential break-though for PEMFCs is one new stimuli to early emergence both of distributed electric utilities and of hydrogen fuel as a major output of renewable energy sources.     

ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies

Energy models are considered as valuable tools to assess the impact of various energy and environment policies. The ACROPOLIS initiative, supported by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency, used up to 15 energy models to simulate and evaluate selected policy measures and instruments and then compare their impacts on energy systems essentially in terms of costs of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction and energy technology choice. Four case studies are formulated considering policies and measures on renewable portfolio schemes and internationally tradable green certificates, emissions trading and global GHG abatement target, energy efficiency standards and internalisation of external costs. The main focus of the project is on the electricity sector. From a large set of quantified results, ACROPOLIS provides an international scientific consensus, on some key issues, which could be useful in assessing and designing energy and environment policies at the world, European and national/regional levels. It concludes that the Kyoto targets (and their continuation beyond 2010 in specific scenarios) could be achieved at a cost around 1% of GDP through global emissions trading, indicating also that this flexibility mechanism is a more cost-effective instrument for GHG mitigation than meeting the goal domestically without trade. It demonstrates that internalising external costs through a price increase reduces local pollutants (SO_x, NO_x, and others) and it produces other benefits such as triggering the penetration of clean technologies in addition to the curbing of CO₂ emissions.     

Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50–80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here—light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no “silver bullet” strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.     

Comparative economic and environmental benefits of ownership of both new and used light duty hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Japan

We present a novel study of the differential total costs of ownership and marginal cost of life cycle emissions abatement for owners of both new and used light duty fuel cell and internal combustion engine vehicles in Japan. We find the emergence of used FCVs in the fleet significantly improves the economic and emissions savings over ICEVs. The cumulative life cycle GHG emissions reductions rapidly increase when FCVs exceed 55%–70% of total LDVs. Life cycle emissions in the vehicle fleet increase 40% if hydrogen is produced from SMR with CCS rather than from solar or wind based electrolysis. Fuel cell cost and electrolyser efficiency are key factors in achieving benefits. Finally, if the early time growth of FCVs to 2030 can be maintained near 50% the government 2050 emissions reduction target of 80% reduction from a 2013 base can be achieved.     

Government policy and the development of electric vehicles in Japan

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role that the Japanese Government has played in the development of alternatives to conventional vehicles, the effect of government programmes, and the importance of technical flexibility in government support schemes. The focus is on battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles.     

Integration of large-scale hydrogen storages in a low-carbon electricity generation system

This study investigates the overall feasibility of large energy storages with hydrogen as energy carrier onsite with a pre-combustion carbon capture and storage coal gasification plant and assesses the general impacts of such a backup installation on an electricity generation system with high wind power portion. The developed system plant configuration consists of four main units namely the gasification unit, main power unit, backup power unit including hydrogen storage and ancillary power unit. Findings show that integrating a backup storage in solid or gaseous hydrogen storage configuration allows to store excessive energy under high renewable power output or low demand and to make use of the stored energy to compensate low renewable output or high power demand. The study concludes that the developed system configuration reaches much higher load factors and efficiency levels than a plant configuration without backup storage, which simply increases its power unit capacity to meet the electricity demand. Also from an economical point of view, the suggested system configurations are capable to achieve lower electricity generation costs.     

The development of low-carbon vehicles in China

Reducing CO₂ emissions from vehicles in China is crucial and will significantly alleviate the environmental burden of the Earth. Some promising technologies that make possible low-carbon vehicles are reviewed in this work, including electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, hybrid vehicles, biofuels vehicles, other alternative fuel vehicles, and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles with improvement. In the short term, expanding the use of mature technologies in conventional gasoline or diesel vehicles is the most realistic, effective, and timely solution for China to meeting the urgent challenges of energy saving and greenhouse gas reduction; while in the long run biofuel is a promising candidate due to their renewability and carbon neutrality. The blueprint of low-carbon vehicles for China depends on three aspects: breakthroughs in technology, awareness of public, and government guidance.