Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model — The case of Taiwan

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO₂ emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly.     

Renewable energy and policy options in an integrated ASEAN electricity market: Quantitative assessments and policy implications

Energy market integration (EMI) in the ASEAN region is a promising solution to relieve the current immobilization of its renewable energy resources and would serve the fast increasing demand for electricity in the region. EMI could be further extended with coordinated policies in carbon pricing, renewable energy portfolio standards (RPS), and feed-in-tariffs (FIT) in the ASEAN countries. Using a linear dynamic programming model, this study quantitatively assesses the impacts of EMI and the above-mentioned policies on the development of renewable energy in the power generation sector of the region, and the carbon emissions reduction achievable with these policies. According to our results, EMI is expected to significantly promote the adoption of renewable energy. Along with EMI, FIT appears to be more cost-effective than RPS and is recommended for the ASEAN region, albeit political barriers for policy coordination among the countries might be a practical concern. In addition, an RPS of 30% electricity from renewable sources by 2030, which is considered politically a “low-hanging fruit”, would achieve moderate improvements in carbon emissions reductions and renewable energy development, while incurring negligible increases in the total cost of electricity.     

Does a small difference make a difference? Impact of feed-in tariff on renewable power generation in China

This study investigates the effectiveness of regionally differentiated feed-in tariffs (FIT) for the development of renewable energy in China. By using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we estimate the impacts of regionally differentiated FITs on the outcome indicators of wind and solar power generation, such as utilization rate, installed capacity, power generation, and hours of operation. Our findings show that FIT implementation plays an important role in promoting renewable energy development. A small difference in the tariff rate leads to statistically significant differences in outcome indicators among regions. Our results suggest that regionally differentiated FITs might help mitigate the overproduction of wind electricity in regions with abundant wind resources but low electricity demand. In addition, we conclude that enlarged tariff gap among regions can lead to greater impact on increasing installations of renewable power generation facilities in resource-poor regions.     

Economic implications of thermal energy storage for concentrated solar thermal power

Solar energy is an attractive renewable energy source because the sun's energy is plentiful and carbon-free. However, solar energy is intermittent and not suitable for base load electricity generation without an energy backup system. Concentrated solar power (CSP) is unique among other renewable energy options because it can approach base load generation with molten salt thermal energy storage (TES). This paper describes the development of an engineering economic model that directly compares the performance, cost, and profit of a 110-MW parabolic trough CSP plant operating with a TES system, natural gas-fired backup system, and no backup system. Model results are presented for 0–12 h backup capacities with and without current U.S. subsidies. TES increased the annual capacity factor from around 30% with no backup to up to 55% with 12 h of storage when the solar field area was selected to provide the lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Using TES instead of a natural gas-fired heat transfer fluid heater (NG) increased total plant capital costs but decreased annual operation and maintenance costs. These three effects led to an increase in the LCOE for PT plants with TES and NG backup compared with no backup. LCOE increased with increasing backup capacity for plants with TES and NG backup. For small backup capacities (1–4 h), plants with TES had slightly lower LCOE values than plants with NG backup. For larger backup capacities (5–12 h), plants with TES had slightly higher LCOE values than plants with NG backup. At these costs, current U.S. federal tax incentives were not sufficient to make PT profitable in a market with variable electricity pricing. Current U.S. incentives combined with a fixed electricity price of $200/MWh made PT plants with larger backup capacities more profitable than PT plants with no backup or with smaller backup capacities. In the absence of incentives, a carbon price of $100–$160/tonne CO_2eq would be required for these PT plants to compete with new coal-fired power plants in the U.S. If the long-term goal is to increase renewable base load electricity generation, additional incentives are needed to encourage new CSP plants to use thermal energy storage in the U.S.     

Is the concept of ‘grid parity’ defined appropriately to evaluate the cost-competitiveness of renewable energy technologies?

The concept of ‘grid parity’ has emerged as a key indicator of the competitiveness of renewable electricity generation technologies. In this study, we firstly summarize the definition of the current levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based methodology for the concept and address its limitation in not taking into account the systematic changes in an electric power system. Secondly, we introduce a bottom-up energy system model based methodology to overcome the limitation. Lastly, we apply the methodology to a case study, the grid parity analysis of solar photovoltaic and onshore wind technologies in the Korean electric power system, to highlight the differences between the results obtained using both methodologies. The results of the study show three implications. First, even if the LCOE of onshore wind is already lower than that of natural gas technologies and the average price of grid electricity, the LCOE is required to be much lower to achieve cost-competitiveness in the electric power system. Second, different technologies might be required to have different LCOE levels to be cost-competitive in the same power system. Third, a policy or plan for the deployment of renewable energy technologies must be harmonized with other policies and plans within the same system.     

A review of the IEA/NEA Projected Costs of Electricity – 2015 edition

The IEA/NEA recently issued their eighth edition of the Study on the “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity” – 2015 edition. The Study is mainly concerned with calculating the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE). The LCOE calculations are based on a levelised average life time cost approach using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The analysis was this year, and for the first time, performed using three discount rates (3%, 7%, and 10%). The LCOE can serve as a tool for calculating the cost of different generation technologies. However the Study's usefulness is affected by its narrow base of a limited set of countries that are not necessarily representative. It ignored the negative role of subsidies and did not provide a methodology for selective application of the discount rates and costing of carbon. The global power generation scene is changing. Generation growth in OECD countries has become very limited; simultaneously there is rapid growth of varying renewables (VRE) generation which needs special criteria for assessing its system cost. All this demands a rethinking of the application and usefulness of the LCOE in future generation planning.     

Assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed-in tariffs in European Union countries

In the last two decades, feed-in tariffs (FIT) have emerged as one of the most popular policies for supporting renewable electricity (RES-E) generation. A few studies have assessed the effectiveness of RES-E policies, but most ignore policy design features and market characteristics (e.g. electricity price and production cost) that influence policy strength. We employ 1992–2008 panel data to conduct the first econometric analysis of the effectiveness of FIT policies in promoting solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind power development in 26 European Union countries. We develop a new indicator for FIT strength that captures variability in tariff size, contract duration, digression rate, and electricity price and production cost to estimate the resulting return on investment. We regress this indicator on added RES-E capacity using a fixed effects specification and find that FIT policies have driven solar PV development in the EU. However, this effect is overstated without controlling for country characteristics and is concealed without accounting for policy design. We do not find robust evidence that FIT policies have driven wind power development. Overall, we show that the interaction of policy design, electricity price, and electricity production cost is a more important determinant of RES-E development than policy enactment alone.     

Techno-econo-environmental optimal operation of grid-wind-solar electricity generation with hydrogen storage system for domestic scale,case study in Chad

The rapidly growing of population in the developing countries and their lack of access to electricity, especially in the remote or rural areas, is causing huge challenges for on energy production. Energy is an enabler and a reliable energy supply is critical to sustainable socio-economic development for any nation. Most of Chad's people live in villages with no particular power supply system. Exploiting renewable energies is the only means of fostering development and improving people's welfare. This paper attempts at proposing an energy profile and storage model for Chad in vast remote towns. The paper addresses the key energy gap that is hindering on the development of such systems, it models and assess the potential on electricity generation and using hydrogen as surplus power storage system. A techno-econo-environmental survey on a solar-wind hybrid system in 25 towns in Chad is undertaken using NASA data and HOMER Software. Several hybrid scenarios of energy production and storage is analyzed. The results showed that in the electricity generation scenario, the average total NPC for the studied stations was $ 48164 and the average LCOE was $0.573. The lowest LCOE was related to Aouzou station with 0.507 $/kWh and the highest LCOE was obtained for Bol station with 0.604 $/kWh. In the simultaneous electricity and hydrogen generation scenario, the cheapest hydrogen ($4.695/kg) was produced in the “Grid” scenario, which was the same for all of the stations, with a total NPC of $2413770. The most expensive hydrogen ($4.707/kg) was generated in the “Grid-Wind” scenario and Bol stations with a total NPC of $2420186. The paper develops cost effective models for all hybrid systems combination for both electricity and hydrogen generation across Chad. These findings could help policy makers, investors and other developmental agencies make informed choices on energy access for sustainable development for rural communities in Sub Saharan Africa.     

What drives renewable energy development?

This viewpoint reviews renewable energy development in 14 markets that differ in market structure (restructured vs. not restructured), use of feed-in-tariff (FIT) (yes vs. no), transmission planning (anticipatory vs. reactive), and transmission interconnection cost allocated to a renewable generator (high vs. low). We find that market restructuring is not a primary driver of renewable energy development. Renewable generation has the highest percent of total installed capacity in markets that use a FIT, employ anticipatory transmission planning, and have loads or end-users paying for most, if not all, of the transmission interconnection costs. In contrast, renewable developers have been less successful in markets that do not use a FIT, employ reactive transmission planning, and have generators paying for most, if not all, of the transmission interconnection costs. While these policies can lead to higher penetration of renewable energy in the short run, their high cost to ratepayers can threaten the economic sustainability of renewable energy in the long-run.     

Lessons for effective renewable electricity policy from Denmark,Germany and the United Kingdom

Renewable electricity development has taken different paths across countries, underpinned by different policy frameworks. Although there has been a convergence to two main mechanisms, the feed-in tariff (FIT) and the renewable portfolio standard (RPS), much debate remains focused on the effectiveness of each for meeting multiple objectives, especially energy security, CO₂ reduction and economic development. Although most countries share these objectives, their choice of policy varies, explained largely by national context. Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom stand out as lead countries based on their experiences with the FIT and RPS and provide important lessons for other nations. The evidence from these three, as examined in this paper, suggests that policy design and commitment are key factors for success. Denmark and Germany have 10 years of experience with FITs and are world leaders in the field of renewable energy (RE) development. They are closest to meeting their RE targets and have been able to achieve several other objectives, especially industrial development and job creation, and in the case of Germany, CO₂ emission reductions. Although other factors have been important in determining policy choice and implementation in these countries, the particular design features of the FIT allow it to address the needs of the sector.     

More competition: Threat or chance for financing renewable electricity?

The paper examines how increased competition in electricity markets may reshape the future electricity generation portfolio and its potential impact on the renewable energy (RE) within the energy mix. The present analysis, which is based on modelling investor behaviour with a time horizon up to 2030, considers the economic aspects and conditions for this development with a particular focus on the photovoltaics. These aspects include pure financial/investment factors, such as the expected returns in the sector, subsidisation of certain RE resources and other policies focusing on the energy sector (liberalisation, environmental policies and security of supply considerations). The results suggest that policies aiming at the expansion of renewable energy technologies and strengthening the competition in the electricity markets have mutually reinforcing effects. More competition can reduce the financial burden of the existing renewable support schemes and consequently help to achieve the already established RE targets.     

Economic analysis of solar energy development in North Africa

The economic analysis of solar energy development is the basis of promoting the solar energy planning in north Africa and realizing the clean energy power transmission among continents. In this paper, the cost development trend of photovoltaic(PV) power and concentrating solar power(CSP) generation is analyzed, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of solar power generation is forecasted. Then, taking the development of Tunisian solar energy as an example in the context of transcontinental transmission, PV power with energy storage and PV-CSP power generation are given as two kinds of development plan respectively. The installed capacity configurations of the two schemes are given with production simulation method, and comprehensive LCOE are calculated. The studies show that based on the LCOE forecast value, the LCOE of PV-CSP combined power generation will decrease when the annual utilization hours of transmission channel is increased. It can be chosen as one of important mode of the North Africa solar energy development.     

Incorporating externalities into a full cost approach to electric power generation life-cycle costing

This study presents a full cost approach to determine the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 14 electricity generation technologies. It encompasses costs incurred at all stages of the fuel cycle, including those that are traditionally omitted from economic evaluations of generation technologies. Incorporating these “externalities” increases the likelihood of developing the most economical and sustainable power resource from a societal perspective. The following externalities are included in this analysis: damage from air pollution, energy security, transmission and distribution costs, and other environmental impacts. Incorporating externalities has a large impact on the LCOE and the relative attractiveness of electricity generation options. Results indicate that clean and efficient generation technologies are the most attractive when all options are examined using a full cost, levelized approach.     

Network externality perspective of feed-in-tariffs (FIT) instruments—Some observations and suggestions

Existing energy policy frameworks revolving around the acceleration of deployment¹ of renewable energy technology can be broadly classified as the quantity vs. price approach. With this brief viewpoint, this paper suggests another perspective of viewing these instruments in terms of a more fundamental basis: whether the deployment in capacity is in terms of a cost minimization approach or a network externality approach. We suggest that the generic price or feed in tariff (FIT) approach in subsidizing renewable electricity generation and associated income would create a bandwagon or self-propagation effect among users rendering the renewable energy technology spreads like a software or information technology. Our objective is to raise awareness of this technology dynamics oriented perspective in renewable deployment supplementing the conventional installation subsidies perspective. We hope that it would inspire more empirical works and studies relating to the policy implications of this viewpoint.     

The future of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme in Europe: The case of photovoltaics

The key objective of this study is the examination of the regulatory and policy framework of the feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme, specifically its effect on both the electricity pricing as well as the local and European renewable energy sources (RES) market, and accordingly the definition of its feasibility as a scheme for the further development and promotion of renewable energy technologies (RETs). This work discusses the FiT scheme implementation for photovoltaics (PVs) in four case study countries - Denmark, Germany, Cyprus, and Spain. A model describing the conditions under which a FiT scheme is led to collapse is also introduced and a parametric analysis towards revealing the sensitivity of the different parameters affecting it, is delivered. The study concludes with significant policy implications that should be considered for future implementation of the scheme. For the prevention of the collapse of the scheme, the tariff's value ought to be determined by each country's government based on a set of influencing factors including the operational, capital and investment costs of each RET, the standard cost of renewable energy (RE) generation and the avoidance cost, which would be regularly reviewed depending on the excess of the annual capacity.     

Feed-in tariff structure development for photovoltaic electricity and the associated benefits for the Kingdom of Bahrain

In this study, the feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme was considered to facilitate an effective introduction of renewable energy in the Kingdom of Bahrain. An economic model was developed for the estimation of feasible FIT rates for photovoltaic (PV) electricity on a residential scale. The calculations of FIT rates were based mainly on the local solar radiation, the cost of a grid-connected PV system, the operation and maintenance cost, and the provided financial support. The net present value and internal rate of return methods were selected for model evaluation with the guide of simple payback period to determine the cost of energy and feasible FIT rates under several scenarios involving different capital rebate percentages, loan down payment percentages, and PV system costs. Moreover, to capitalise on the FIT benefits, its impact on the stakeholders beyond the households was investigated in terms of natural gas savings, emissions cutback, job creation, and PV-electricity contribution towards the energy demand growth. The study recommended the introduction of the FIT scheme in the Kingdom of Bahrain due to its considerable benefits through a setup where each household would purchase the PV system through a loan, with the government and the electricity customers sharing the FIT cost.     

Levelized cost of storage — Introducing novel metrics

The increasing share of variable renewable generation capacity leads to a growing interest in electricity storage technologies and a summarizing cost metric to analyze the economic viability of such electricity storage units. For conventional generation technologies, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a well-known metric. In the context of electricity storage however, such LCOE-like metrics are only limitedly applicable as the finite energy storage capacity can limit the charge and discharge scheduling decisions of the storage operator. In addition, the “fuel”, i.e., charged electricity, and “generated electricity”, i.e., discharged electricity, is one and the same commodity which provides the opportunity to use an adapted levelized cost metric. This work analyzes three different levelized cost metrics and their application to electricity storage units used for electric energy arbitrage. The strengths and shortcomings of these storage cost metrics are analyzed in order to determine how they can be applied correctly. This analysis results in the following recommendations. First, it is recommended to use a levelized cost metric in combination with an analysis of a representative price profile upon which the storage operator will act. This allows a more accurate estimation of the number of charging and discharging hours and the associated charging cost and discharging revenue, given the energy storage capacity constraints of the storage unit. Second, when a number of different representative price profiles, hence with different charging costs, is available, it is recommended to use a cost metric which is independent of the charging cost as this single metric can be compared to each price profile, thereby facilitating the interpretation of the results. The results and conclusions from this work provide a framework on how to use levelized cost metrics in the context of electricity storage. Such metrics may help policy makers and investors in prioritizing energy storage investment decisions.     

Does electricity price matter for innovation in renewable energy technologies in China?

Though the development of renewable energy is rapid, innovation in renewable energy technologies is relatively weak due to the late commencement of renewable energy in China. In addition, renewable energy is mainly introduced into the supply mix of electricity generation, which increases the costs of electricity generation. Higher electricity price will make renewable energy more competitive and call forth renewable energy technological innovation. Based on FMOLS and DOLS models, as well as PMG model, this paper investigates the induced long and short run effects of electricity price, funding support, and economic growth on innovation in renewable energy technologies at the provincial level in China during the period 2006–2016. The Conclusions drawn were: (1) R&D expenditure and economic growth have positive impacts on innovation in renewable energy technologies in the long and short run; (2) Electricity price only has a long run effect on patenting in renewable energy technologies; (3) In the long run, a 1% increase in electricity price can lead to a 0.7825%–1.0952% increase in the patent counts of renewable energy technologies; (4) Electricity pricing system in China does not play any role in driving renewable energy technological innovation in the short run.     

De-risking investment into concentrated solar power in North Africa: Impacts on the costs of electricity generation

A low-carbon energy transition on the basis of renewable energy sources (RES) is of crucial importance to solve the interlinked global challenges of climate change and energy security. However, large-scale deployment of RES requires substantial investments, including the participation of private capital. Scientific evidence shows that the economic feasibility of a RES project hinges on the availability of affordable project financing, which itself depends on risk perceptions by private investors. Since financing costs tend to be particularly high for capital-intensive RES projects and in developing countries, we investigate the impacts of addressing these perceived risks on electricity prices from semi-dispatchable concentrated solar power (CSP) in four North African countries. By employing a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model we find that comprehensively de-risking CSP investments leads to a 39% reduction in the mean LCOE from CSP. However, this reduction is still not sufficient to achieve economic competitiveness of CSP with highly subsidized conventional electricity from fossil fuels in North Africa. Hence, our results suggest that de-risking reflects an important strategy to foster the deployment of CSP in North Africa but additional measures to support RES, such as reconsidering fossil fuel subsidies, will be needed.     

Renewable energy,subsidies, and the WTO: Where has the ‘green’ gone?

Faced with the energy transition imperative, governments have to decide about public policies to promote renewable electrical energy production and to protect domestic power generation equipment industries. These policies can generate trade frictions. For example, in the Canadian renewable energy dispute the EU and Japan claimed that Feed in Tariff (FIT) programs in Ontario constitute discriminatory subsidies because of a local content requirement (LCR) clause that is incompatible with World Trade Organization obligations. This paper investigates this issue using an international quality differentiated duopoly model in which power generation equipment producers compete on price. FIT programs including those with a LCR are compared for their impacts on trade, profits, amount of renewable electricity produced, and welfare. When sales are taken into account, the results confirm discrimination. However, introducing a difference in the quality of the power generation equipment produced on both sides of the border has a moderating effect on the results. Finally, the results enable discussion of the question of whether environmental protection can be a reason for subsidizing renewable energy producers in light of the SCM Agreement.