中国主权财富基金与国家能源安全研究

主权财富基金的兴起是20世纪90年代初石油价格暴增导致的商品价格的上升和全球收支失衡的直接结果。主权财富基金从建立之初,就隐含着保证国家发展的稳定性和安全性的动机。基于国家安全的战略目的,中国的主权财富基金在能源领域的投资倾向越来越明显。由于能源具有战略属性,对能源的投资一方面为保证我国的能源安全提供了一种解决的途径,另一方面,也引发了其他国家对于地缘性政治战略的敏感反映。各国对于主权财富对重要能源的投资均有不同程度的限制,这在一定程度上使得能源市场更加复杂,对能源安全产生了不利影响。本文初步探讨了我国主权财富基金在能源领域的投资对我国的能源安全的影响,并给出相关建议。     

China's energy security,the Malacca dilemma and responses

China's rapid economic growth has led to a huge increase in oil imports. This has raised great concern regarding its energy security because China depends on a single chokepoint, the Strait of Malacca, with nearly three-quarters of its oil imports flowing through the Strait. Given its strategic importance to China and China's little sway on the waterway, this viewpoint focuses mainly on China's concerns about and efforts at both demand and supply sides towards energy security, in particular regarding the Malacca dilemma, and puts potential Arctic oil and gas into that context.     

Growth and structural change in China's energy economy

China has been the world's most vibrant economy and its largest source of energy demand growth over the past two decades, accounting for more than one-quarter of net growth in global primary energy consumption from 1980 to 2005. To sustain economic growth and rising living standards, China needs effective policies that anticipate and shape the country's future energy requirements. In this paper, we examine China's national economic and energy accounts over the past decade for insights into changing energy use patterns and their relationship to economic structure. Our results indicate that incipient structural changes in the Chinese energy economy and sustained economic and energy demand growth in China will pose important, and different, challenges for policymakers.     

Influences of new socialist countryside construction on the energy strategy of china and the countermeasures

The fast-growing Chinese economy will inevitably need more and more energy. This not only makes China's energy shortage situation severer, but also causes more and more worries from the countries all over the world, especially those developed countries. In this paper, China's energy state is analyzed and the influences of promoting new socialist countryside construction on China's energy source problem and its energy strategy making are discussed. It is stressed in this paper that in drawing the national energy development plan, it is of vital importance to take the impacts of new socialist countryside construction on energy production, supply and consumption into consideration. Traditional mineral energy supply that has been used for towns and cities should not be simply copied to solve the energy problem in countryside construction. The best choice for combating the huge energy increase resulted from speeding up the countryside construction is promoting utilization of biomass and solar energy and various advanced energy technologies. To make the utilization of biomass and solar energy and various advanced energy technologies in countryside, the government should give necessary technical and financial supports.     

Shaping China's energy security: The impact of domestic reforms

This paper is a subsequent study of China's energy security situation which concludes that China's energy security has not improved over 30 years of economic reform. The objective of the study is to explore qualitatively why the energy security situation has not improved. To answer the ‘why’ question, the study opens up a new perspective by analyzing the relationship between energy security and energy policies from the macroeconomic reform perspective. This study discusses major reforms that took place over 30 years. It is found that China's macroeconomic reform has restricted the formation of China's energy policies and determined its energy security situation. In essence, China's energy policies are only a reaction to the macroeconomic measures. In other words, China's energy policies are not originally intended to improve energy security, but passive reactions to China's macroeconomic reform. This explains why China did not improve its energy security situation despite 30 years of reform.     

Promoting energy efficiency investments with risk management decision tools

This paper reviews current capital budgeting practices and their impact on energy efficiency investments. The prevalent use of short payback "rule-of-thumb" requirements to screen efficiency projects for risk is shown to bias investment choices towards "sure bet" investments bypassing many profitable efficiency investment options. A risk management investment strategy is presented as an alternative to risk avoidance practices applied with payback thresholds. The financial industry risk management tool Value-at-Risk is described and extended to provide an Energy-Budgets-at-Risk or EBaR risk management analysis to convey more accurate energy efficiency investment risk information. The paper concludes with recommendations to expand the use of Value-at-Risk-type energy efficiency analysis.     

Beyond an energy deal: Impacts of the Sino-Australia uranium agreement

Is the spectacular growth of Sino-Australian trade compelling Australian policy-makers to strengthen strategic support for China in the face of traditional alliances? The recently signed trade agreement under which Australia will annually export 20,000 tonnes of uranium to China for power generation for the next 20 years, will feed China's increased energy demand, allow a reduction in dependence on coal-based energy and ameliorate environmental deterioration, all matters that have become critical to China's economic growth. Yet the uranium trade will contribute only slightly to China's energy needs, and to the Australian economy. However, the trade deal was signed even though China, as a nuclear military power, is a potential threat to Australia's strongest military ally, the US. At the same time it reignited a divisive debate in Australia, covering a wide range of political, social, economic, health and environmental policy areas that reach well beyond strategic relationships. That the Australian Government will risk both internal and external criticism seems to be further recognition that Australia is becoming increasingly dependent on the continued growth of China's economy for its prosperity.     

Japanese wind energy development policy: Grand plan or group think?

This paper analyzes Japan's national power generation strategy with a view to explaining Japan's phlegmatic approach to wind energy development. The analysis concludes that Japan's current power generation strategy is not optimized to achieve the government's three strategic energy objectives of simultaneously enhancing economic security, national energy security and environmental security (3Es). To achieve long-run energy sustainability, Japan needs to strive to phase out nuclear power, which is the centerpiece of its current power generation strategy. The analysis concludes by offering four suggestions for a sustainable 3E power generation strategy: (1) internalize all external costs associated with power generation technologies in order to level the economic playing field, (2) increase feed-in mandates for renewable energy to 20%, (3) fully liberalize the power generation industry and (4) intensify R&D in energy storage technologies to support intermittent renewable technologies.     

Impact of energy efficiency measures on the economic value of buildings

A main objective of energy policies is to make all levels of the society, from governments to citizen, interested in increasing the energy efficiency of buildings. One of the most important barriers in implementation of energy policies is that the cost of potential energy savings, typically considered being the only financial benefit, does not sufficiently motivate investments. The target is therefore to identify further possible drivers pushing positive reaction according to energy saving action.The paper discusses whether a market-based instrument, capturing the increase of the economic value of energy efficient buildings, can be also used. Methods that quantify the added value due to energy performance, including recommendations on how they can be incorporated in the financial analysis of investments in weatherization, are developed. By applying the proposed methods, the payback period of investments in energy efficiency measures depends on two factors: potential energy savings and the added value to the property. Case studies on some existing condominiums from Romania are analyzed and provide evidence to the research question.The market sensitivity to energy efficiency measures, the possibility of an intangible added value as well as the impact to financial investment decisions is subsequently in the focus.     

Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach

This article provides a synthesized, workable framework for analyzing national energy security policies and performance. Drawn from research interviews, survey results, a focused workshop, and an extensive literature review, this article proposes that energy security ought to be comprised of five dimensions related to availability, affordability, technology development, sustainability, and regulation. We then break these five dimensions down into 20 components related to security of supply and production, dependency, and diversification for availability; price stability, access and equity, decentralization, and low prices for affordability; innovation and research, safety and reliability, resilience, energy efficiency, and investment for technology development; land use, water, climate change, and air pollution for sustainability; and governance, trade, competition, and knowledge for sound regulation. Further still, our synthesis lists 320 simple indicators and 52 complex indicators that policymakers and scholars can use to analyze, measure, track, and compare national performance on energy security. The article concludes by offering implications for energy policy more broadly.     

Industrial relocation and energy consumption: Evidence from China

With economic development and the change of industrial structure, industrial relocation is an inevitable trend. In the process of industrial relocation, environmental externality and social cost could occur due to market failure and government failure. Little attention has been paid to this issue. In this paper, we address it with a theoretical analysis and an empirical investigation on the relationship between China's industrial relocation in the early 1990s and energy consumption which is the primary source of CO₂ emission, an environmental externality that causes increasing concerns. The macro-policy analysis suggests that there would be a positive link between China's industrial relocation in the early 1990s and energy saving (and environmental externalities reduction). Using fixed-effect regression model and simulation method, we provide an empirical support to this argument. In order to further reduce environmental externalities and social cost in the process of industrial relocation, we provide policy suggestions as follows: First, strengthen the evaluation of environmental benefits/costs; Second, pay more attention to the coordinated social-economic development; Third, avoid long-lived investment in high-carbon infrastructure in areas with industries moved in; Fourth, address employment issue in the areas with industries moved out.     

Energy conservation investments: A comparison between China and the US

Growth in energy consumption in China has soared from 2001 to 2004, driven largely by a booming economy and heavy investment in infrastructure and housing. In response, China has poured billions of dollars of investment in building power plants—at a rate of one large power plant (1000 MW) per week. In fact, China in 2004 has added the entire generating capacity of California or Spain in a single year. In contrast, investment in energy conservation projects has weakened considerably in recent years. This paper examines trends in energy efficiency investments in China and the US. The comparison highlights the potential of energy conservation investments in addressing China's current energy crisis as well as the inadequacy of such investments in China. Finally, the paper outlines a few scenarios for appropriate levels of investments in energy efficiency in China in the future.     

Impact of energy technology patents in China: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model

Enhancing energy technology innovation performance, which is widely measured by energy technology patents through energy technology research and development (R&D) activities, is a fundamental way to implement energy conservation and emission abatement. This study analyzes the effects of R&D investment activities, economic growth, and energy price on energy technology patents in 30 provinces of China over the period 1999–2013. Several unit root tests indicate that all the above variables are generated by panel unit root processes, and a panel cointegration model is confirmed among the variables. In order to ensure the consistency of the estimators, the Fully-Modified OLS (FMOLS) method is adopted, and the results indicate that R&D investment activities and economic growth have positive effects on energy technology patents while energy price has a negative effect. However, the panel error correction models indicate that the cointegration relationship helps to promote economic growth, but it reduces R&D investment and energy price in the short term. Therefore, market-oriented measures including financial support and technical transformation policies for the development of low-carbon energy technologies, an effective energy price mechanism, especially the targeted fossil-fuel subsidies and their die away mode are vital in promoting China's energy technology innovation.     

Effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in China

As a key issue in China's economic development, urbanisation creates increasing pressure on energy supply and the natural environment. Thus, a better understanding of the relationship between urbanisation and energy consumption is necessary for Chinese decision makers at various levels to address energy security and sustainable economic and social development. This paper empirically investigates the effects of China's urbanisation on residential energy consumption (REC) and production energy consumption (PEC) through a time-series analysis. The results show that compared with rural areas, urbanisation slows per capita REC growth because of the economy of scale and technological advantages associated with urbanisation but has greater promotional effects on the growth of REC and the improvement of REC structure. The economic growth caused by urbanisation most significantly contributes to an increase in PEC, whereas technological advancement was found to reduce the scale of PEC (except from 2001 to 2005). Finally, the structural effect of the energy supply increased rather than decreased China's PEC, and the effect of industrial structure adjustment on PEC was found to be insignificant.     

China's ongoing energy efficiency drive: Origins,progress and prospects

In 2004 China's government launched a vigorous programme to reverse the trend of rising national energy intensity and to reduce intensity by 20% over the period 2006–2010. The aim of this paper is to examine this programme in the context of nearly 30 years of measures to enhance energy efficiency in China, and thus to evaluate the likelihood that today's policies will yield improvements over a longer period. The country achieved a sustained decline of energy intensity in the period 1980–2001 but this trend was reversed in 2002. This reversal arose from a shift in the structure of the economy to more energy-intensive industries and from a decline in the rate of technical innovation. The measures taken since 2003 have been directed principally at energy-intensive industries, but have also addressed other sectors of the economy. Though the energy intensity target for the year 2010 may be achieved, greater efforts will be needed to address a number of constraints which include: the reluctance to use economic and financial instruments; the dependency of energy policy on industrial and social policies; the nature of political decision-making and of public administration; a shortage of skills; and social attitudes to energy.     

Private sector investment in renewable energy utilisation: strategic analysis of stakeholder perspectives in developing countries

Private sector encouragement in the development programmes of renewable energy (RE) utilisation is one of the important subjects and challenges for governments of developing countries. While profit in short-term and market-based orientation are the dominant approach of private sector to start an investment, governments and policymakers are paying special attention to participation of private investments to achieve their long-term development plans. In contrast, academic researchers notice to private investments in a structure that is sometimes in conflict with private investors and policymakers perspectives. Therefore, each group of stakeholders has its own priorities that negatively affect promotion and adoption plans of renewable alternatives utilisation. This article reviews and analyses different perspectives of RE stakeholders (beneficiaries) to encourage participation of private investments Differences in priorities, concerns, and interests in each group of stakeholders are the subjects that are discussed in the article. To close the attitudes and perspectives, a recommendations package is also presented in two levels of operational and strategic     

Energy demand and supply,energy policies,and energy security in the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use—especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors—have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's “green economy” and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals.     

Determinants of China's energy imports: An empirical analysis

Sustained economic growth in China has triggered a surge of energy imports, especially oil imports. This paper investigates the determinants of China's energy import demand by using cointegraiton and VECM techniques. The findings suggest that, in the long run, growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect China's oil imports, while domestic energy output has a substitution effect. Thus, as the Chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands, China's oil imports are likely to increase. Though China's domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports, its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs. It is anticipated that China will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price.     

China's energy security: Perception and reality

China, now the world's second-largest economy, is worried about energy security, which underpins the core objectives of Beijing and the political legitimacy of the Communist Party of China. The purpose of this study is to explore certain popular myths about China's energy security. The study consists of six parts. After the introduction, it formulates the obscure concept of “energy security” and attempts to contextualize it with “Chinese characteristics.” Then it explicitly points out that the largest driver of oil demand by China as the “World's Factory” is transport instead of industry. Next, it explores the effectiveness of transnational pipelines as a measure of energy security and explains why they are less effective than many observers have previously assumed. Furthermore, it investigates the global expansion of Chinese national oil companies and questions their actual contribution to energy security. A few concluding remarks then follow.     

Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea,East Africa

We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. EE/RE are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study, we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in EE/RE. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.