内蒙古能源经济形势与可持续发展

内蒙古能源资源丰富,对经济的发展起着重要的作用。随着新型工业化进程的加快和资源节约、环境友好型社会建设的推进,内蒙古转变经济发展方式,实现经济社会的可持续发展迎来了新的机遇。目前,内蒙古能源经济形式发生了明显变化,能源供给和需求数量不断增长,消费结构发生了明显变化,能源产业实现多元化,产业结构不断升级,新能源开发利用步伐加快,但能源经济发展中仍存在一些问题。因此,坚持可持续能源发展观,转变经济发展方式,优化能源资源配置,提高能源利用效率等是实现内蒙古能源经济可持续发展的重要战略举措。     

内蒙古能源工业发展与环境问题

内蒙古拥有得天独厚的煤炭资源优势,最近几年随着中国经济增长而带来的能源需求的急剧上升,内蒙古的煤炭开采和煤炭发电等能源产业发展十分迅猛,为全国和当地经济发展做出了贡献,但也带来了不少相关的生态环境问题。本文系统分析了这些问题,并提出了相关建议。     

太阳能在内蒙古民用建筑中的应用

通过分析内蒙古传统民用建筑的特点;并因地制宜、充分利用本地区丰富的太阳能资源,对内蒙古地区利用太阳能解决采暖和生活用热水的可行性、经济性进行分析。     

内蒙古新能源的开发与利用

介绍了内蒙古自治区在开发利用新能源方面采取的措施、取得的成效和未来发展计划。提出了开发利用新能源是解决边远地区能源问题的可行和有效的途径。     

Ecological impacts of small hydropower in China: Insights from an emergy analysis of a case plant

The belief that small hydropower (SHP) systems are sources of clean energy with few or no ecological problems has been driving the rapid expansion of SHP plants in China and elsewhere. This paper presents an evaluation of the ecological impacts of SHP based on an emergy analysis of a plant located in Guizhou Province in southwest China. The results suggest that periodic downstream drying-up of the river is the largest contributor to the induced ecological impacts in terms of emergy cost. In 2010, the ecosystem service losses caused by downstream ecosystem degradation totaled 2.35E+18 seJ, which accounts for 38% of the total emergy utilized in the annual operation of this plant. If such losses could be avoided, i.e., if the SHP operated as designed, SHP projects would produce relatively modest impacts on the environment. When the reaches downstream of the SHP plant are not affected, the environmental loading ratio (ELR) is 2.20 and the emergy sustainability index (ESI) is 0.93; however, the ELR increases to 3.82 and ESI decreases to 0.38 when river drying-up occurs. These results indicate that China should rigorously investigate potential ecological problems of SHP development and proceed with caution rather than readily believing unjustified assumptions.     

涧河煤矿巷道支护措施探究

以涧河煤矿采区、回采面和掘进巷道为基础,介绍了采区地质、生产条件和巷道的支护设计,分析了巷道变形特点和变形原因,结合各矿生产掘进相关负责人提出的问题,重点对霍州矿区各矿巷道支护现状进行分析评价,并提出了改进建议。     

内蒙古自治区离网型风、光互补户用供电系统推广市场化运营机制研究

我国尚有大约3000万人口没有解决用电问题。因地制宜地采用风力发电、光伏发电技术是切实可行的方案。各级政府有责任给予补贴,尽快解决边远地区农牧民的供电问题。本研究针对内蒙古先导项目出现的问题进行了分析,提出了将部分政府补贴资本化,建立用户贷款机制,让用户采用分期付款的方式购买设备,另将部分政府补贴资金用于补贴赤贫农牧户发电设备的安装费用,建立市场化发展机制等的建议。     

基于投入产出分析的内蒙古虚拟水消费及贸易研究

为探索内蒙古自治区缓解水资源短缺压力的途径、保障能源安全和粮食安全,采用水资源投入产出方法分析了自治区2007、2012、2015年直接用水系数、完全用水系数及虚拟水消费与贸易量、结构及变化趋势,提出合理化对策建议。结果表明,第一产业直接用水系数和完全用水系数远高于第二、三产业,大量虚拟水通过产品以间接形式从第一产业转移到二、三产业;各产业完全用水系数和直接用水率均呈下降趋势,说明三次产业用水效率不断提高且产业之间联系不断加强;削减第一、二产业最终需求中虚拟水含量、适当增加第三产业最终需求在总最终需求中的比重,可优化需求过程的虚拟水消费结构;受第一产业虚拟水由净输出转为净输入影响,内蒙古自治区由虚拟水净输出地区转为净输入地区,虚拟水贸易结构趋于合理化。研究成果可为区域水资源管理提供参考。     

Impacts of increasing bioenergy use on ecosystem services on nature and society exemplified in the German district of Görlitz

According to the energy policies of the European Union and Germany, the proportion of renewable sources for energy will be increased significantly in the coming years. The extended cultivation of energy crops can lead to conflicts, e.g. severe impacts on various ecosystem services based on groundwater, soils, biodiversity and the overall appearance of the scenery. Energy crops compete with food production, and moreover, they have various ecological, economic and social implications. There is a need for improved spatial planning instruments to regulate energy crop cultivation and to reduce the impact on ecosystems and landscapes. As economic, ecological and social aspects are involved, we see the concept of Ecosystem Services as a suitable tool to analyze the impacts of an increased growth of energy crops. This concept not only acts as a stimulus to finding appropriate solutions for enhancing sustainable land management on a regional level, but also provides a holistic view with which to address the demands for improved regulative frameworks.     

The application of ecosystems services criteria for green building assessment

In the discussion of environmental architecture, we are conjoining two disciplines, the subject of architecture and that of ecology. At their best, green buildings are examples of applied ecology, where designers understand the constitution, organization, and structure of ecosystems, and the impacts of architecture are considered from an environmental perspective. By utilizing the concepts, methods, and language of ecology, designers can create architecture that intentionally engages the natural systems of a site.The establishment of assessment criteria implies the definition of building design criteria. If we establish criteria that are based on our best scientific understanding of environmental capacity, we will begin to develop a building stock that is sustainable. To do this we must quantify the link between the resulting environmental impacts and their cause in building production and use. This is not done in traditional building environmental impact assessment methods, which are based on quantifying assumed negative impacts of man-made interventions on the natural environment, typically using a code compliant reference building as a standard to improve upon. These indexes lack an ecologically derived baseline, or standard of measure, under which sustainable developments can be analyzed and compared on a universal basis.An ecologically derived baseline can be used to measure negative impacts as well as positive impacts of buildings. It also allows vastly different project types, sizes and locations to be compared on an equal basis. This study extends the concept of ecological capacity into an architectural context, and develops carrying capacity as a time and area dependent tool to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental building design. The ecosystem services criteria study uses an objective metric of carrying capacity as an ecologically derived baseline (hectare/years) to assess building sustainability. The farmhouse, a low energy, biological material based building located in Boulder, Colorado is evaluated to show the application of this method. The relative ecological impact of energy and materials for this project is described, as well as identification of effective strategies for reducing environmental impacts of typical buildings.     

基于线性方法的内蒙古地区太阳总辐射月均值估算

探讨了内蒙古地区太阳总辐射月均值与日照百分率的关系,基于5个气象站1996—1998年连续3 a的月日照时数（n）和太阳总辐射值（R_s）。计算得到Angstrom方程的系数a和b,与和清华等拟合得到的中国西部太阳总辐射公式中的a=0.185,b=0.595,比较一致。同时,R_s和n之间的直接线性关系,R与月平均温度（T）之间的直接线性关系也能用来估算太阳总辐射月均值,总均方根误差约为80 MJ·m^-2/month,总百分比误差约为18%。     

Residents’ preference of solar access in high-density sub-tropical cities

Solar access refers to the ability of a living unit to continue to receive sunlight without obstruction from any other properties or structures. The provision of appropriate solar access is considered to be important to residents’ health, comfort and daily living. Guidelines and standards for the provision of sunlight have been formulated in the past few decades in low-density living environment. In sub-tropical high-density living environment like Hong Kong, associated guidelines and standards are generally lacking and it has become a growing concern for better provision of sunlight to residential units. It is also important to consider residents’ preference of solar access in the formulation of standard for solar access and daylighting, as well as urban planning and building design. The present paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey regarding residents’ preference of solar access in terms of time, amount, place, and purpose of the exploitation of sunlight, as well as an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) which examines the influence of environmental parameters on residents’ preference. Results show that the majority of the respondents (72.0%) were satisfied with the current situation of solar access in their households. Only 12.4% of the respondents felt unsatisfactory about solar access of their flats. Over half of the respondents preferred to have sunlight penetration into their households in the morning. There is likely a need to improve the provision of solar access in terms of the time of sunlight received by residents since only about 40% of the respondents had the same time of sunlight entering their flats as they expected. There are not any particular preferences of the expected amount of solar access. Sufficient solar access was found to be more important than view outside respondents’ flats with an overwhelming 70.2% of the respondents in favor of sufficient solar access. The EFA results indicate that observed microclimatic parameters were the dominant influencing factors and closely followed by visual elements of residents’ subjective feelings about their flats. It implies that the incorporation of microclimatic environments into current design standard and guidelines should be considered. Further studies can also be conducted to examine the behavior of residents, i.e. activities occurred in the units, in more details. Current findings provide a basis of the preference of residents to solar access of residential flats in high-density tropical cities using Hong Kong as a case study. Policy-makers, as well as planners and architects, should therefore take the findings into account when establishing appropriate guidelines and standards, especially for high-density subtropical cities, in order to provide residential units with better sunlight environment.     

气温变化和水库运行对黄河内蒙古段凌情的影响

近半个世纪内,气温变化和水库运行使黄河内蒙古段凌情呈现出不同的特点。基于黄河内蒙古段1959~2013年冬季气温及水文资料,统计分析了巴彦高勒、三湖河口、头道拐3个水文站近55年平均气温及其变化过程,并结合水库冰期控流情况,分时段研究了黄河内蒙古段凌情变化。结果表明,1968年水库运行后至1987年气温突变前,封河与开河日期比基准期均推后,封冻持续时间基本不变;1987年气温突变后,封冻日期推后,开河日期提前,封冻期缩短;流凌日期、封河日期与气温转负后的降温强度有关;累积负气温与冰厚呈显著负相关,相关系数达-0.817,气温升高使得首封位置下移。     

内蒙古能源与经济发展关系的实证研究

2000～2008年,内蒙古GDP由1539亿元增加到7761.8亿元,年均增长率为22.42%,经济增长速度连续7年居全国第一位。随着经济的快速增长和人民生活水平的不断提高,内蒙古对能源的需求也不断增加,如何正确处理能源消费与经济增长的关系,对于内蒙古的可持续发展具有重要意义。内蒙古煤炭、石油、天然气等一次能源十分丰富,新能源发展潜力巨大。内蒙古虽为能源生产大户,但同时也是耗能大户。2001～2005年能源消费年均增速为24.69%,高出全国平均增速近13个百分点;2007年能源消费创历史最高水平,达到14649.39×104t标煤。自1993年以来,内蒙古原煤消费量占能源消费总量的比重一直保持在90%左右。全区工业部门能源消费占有很大比重,2007年达到73.51%。虽然全区能源综合利用水平不断提高,但与"十一五"规划目标相比仍有相当大的差距。对内蒙古能源消费与经济增长的相关数据进行相关性分析及弹性分析,结果表明,地区生产总值每增加1亿元,能源消费总量就增加1.98×104t标煤。2001～2005年,内蒙古能源消费弹性系数都在1以上,说明能源消费增长快于经济增长,内蒙古经济的快速增长属于粗放型增长,是在消耗大量能源和原材料基础上取得的。要实现内蒙古经济的可持续发展,不仅要加快产业结构调整步伐、调整能源消费结构、创建循环经济模式,而且还要完善节能管理体制,加强监管力度。     

Application of geographical information system to site selection of small run-of-river hydropower project by considering engineering/economic/environmental criteria and social impact

In the process of site selection of a small run-of-river hydropower project in Thailand, some problems are addressed as follows: the accessibility of the possible sites which are mostly located in rural and mountainous areas, the large amount of data required, and the lack of participation of the local people living nearby. In order to cope with these problems, this study proposes a new method to select feasible sites of small run-of-river hydropower projects by using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. A combination of engineering, economic, and environmental criteria, as well as social impact is employed in this study. The selected study area is the upper Nan river basin situated in the north of Thailand. For the engineering criteria, the project locations are found by GIS in visual basic platform, and then economic evaluations of the selected projects are performed. Next, the environmental parameters are used to rank the projects by total weighted scores. Finally, a social impact study at the potential sites is conducted based on the public participation process, i.e. questionnaire survey and focus group discussions. The applicability of the proposed method is verified by the results of site selection of the small hydropower projects located on the Nan river basin in Thailand. This case study can be the model for the process of site selection of similar projects.     

Indicators of bioenergy-related certification schemes – An analysis of the quality and comprehensiveness for assessing local/regional environmental impacts

Bioenergy is receiving increasing attention because it may reduce greenhouse gas emissions, secure and diversify energy supplies and stimulate rural development. The environmental sustainability of bioenergy production systems is often determined through life-cycle assessments that focus on global environmental effects, such as the emission of greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Local/regional environmental impacts, e.g., the impacts on soil or on biodiversity, require site-specific and flexible options for the assessment of environmental sustainability, such as the criteria and indicators used in bioenergy certification schemes.In this study, we compared certification schemes and assessed the indicator quality through the environmental impact categories, using a standardized rating scale to evaluate the indicators. Current certification schemes have limitations in their representation of the environmental systems affected by feedstock production. For example, these schemes predominantly use feasible causal indicators, instead of more reliable but less feasible effect indicators. Furthermore, the comprehensiveness of the depicted environmental systems and the causal links between human land use activities and biophysical processes in these systems have been assessed. Bioenergy certification schemes seem to demonstrate compliance with underlying legislation, such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive, rather than ensure environmental sustainability. Beyond, certification schemes often lack a methodology or thresholds for sustainable biomass use. Lacking thresholds, imprecise causal links and incomplete indicator sets may hamper comparisons of the environmental performances of different feedstocks. To enhance existing certification schemes, we propose combining the strengths of several certification schemes with research-based indicators, to increase the reliability of environmental assessments.     

基于突变理论的内蒙古巴彦淖尔市凌洪灾害风险评估

黄河内蒙古段凌洪灾害频发,凌情复杂多变,防凌除险难度极大,因此凌洪灾害的风险评估是开展防凌工作的重要部分。选取内蒙古巴彦淖尔市沿黄5个旗县区为风险区,通过分析凌洪灾害驱动机理,基于灾害学和突变理论建立灾害风险评估体系,得到各风险区的风险等级。结果表明,各风险区风险等级随黄河过境顺序呈逐级递减的态势,其中磴口县(0.956)属极高风险地区,杭锦后旗(0.923)、临河区(0.907)属高风险地区,乌拉特前旗(0.899)、五原县(0.885)属中等风险地区。突变评估结果与模糊优选法评价结果基本一致,且与历史险情统计基本吻合,验证了突变理论评价结果的合理性,可为巴彦淖尔市防凌减灾工作的科学规划、合理部署提供参考。     

Industrial and ecological cumulative exergy consumption of the United States via the 1997 input–output benchmark model

This paper develops a thermodynamic input–output (TIO) model of the 1997 United States economy that accounts for the flow of cumulative exergy in the 488-sector benchmark economic input–output model in two different ways. Industrial cumulative exergy consumption (ICEC) captures the exergy of all natural resources consumed directly and indirectly by each economic sector, while ecological cumulative exergy consumption (ECEC) also accounts for the exergy consumed in ecological systems for producing each natural resource. Information about exergy consumed in nature is obtained from the thermodynamics of biogeochemical cycles. As used in this work, ECEC is analogous to the concept of emergy, but does not rely on any of its controversial claims. The TIO model can also account for emissions from each sector and their impact and the role of labor. The use of consistent exergetic units permits the combination of various streams to define aggregate metrics that may provide insight into aspects related to the impact of economic sectors on the environment. Accounting for the contribution of natural capital by ECEC has been claimed to permit better representation of the quality of ecosystem goods and services than ICEC. The results of this work are expected to permit evaluation of these claims. If validated, this work is expected to lay the foundation for thermodynamic life cycle assessment, particularly of emerging technologies and with limited information.     

黄河内蒙段干流流量演进模型

为探究黄河内蒙段干流的流量演进过程,基于该河段干流各水文站1987~2011年实测逐日流量资料,依据水量平衡原理,利用灰色关联分析法推求流量传播时间,并采用马斯京根新建模法模拟黄河内蒙段干流的流量演进,分别建立了该河段畅流期不同流量级别和不同时段的流量演算模型,分析预报了该河段畅流期的流量过程。结果表明,不同模型模拟的流量过程与实测系列均吻合,模拟结果的预报精度均达到了预报精度要求,且根据不同流量级别建立的模型精度更高,更易于实际应用操作。     

Resource and revenue potential of California residential load participation in ancillary services

Increasing penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources will require additional power system services. California recently adopted an energy storage mandate to support its renewable portfolio standard, which requires 33% of delivered energy from renewables by 2020. The objective of this paper is to estimate the amount of energy storage that could be provided by residential thermostatically controlled loads, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, and the amount of revenue that could be earned by loads participating in ancillary services markets. We model load aggregations as virtual energy storage, and use simple dynamical system models and publicly available data to generate our resource and revenue estimates. We find that the resource potential is large: 10–40 GW/8–12 GWh, which is significantly more than that required by the mandate. We also find that regulation and spinning/non-spinning reserve revenues vary significantly depending upon type of load and, for heat pumps and air conditioners, climate zone. For example, mean regulation revenues for refrigerators are $11/year, for electric water heaters are $24/year, for air conditioners are $0-32/year, and for heat pumps are $22–56/year. Both consumer choices, such as appliance settings, and policy, such as the design of ancillary service compensation and appliance standards, could increase revenue potentials.