An examination of least-squares regression modeling of catastrophe theory.

Although catastrophe theory appears to have substantial heuristic value in many areas of psychology, its acceptance has, to some extent, been hampered by the lack of a well-developed analytic framework. Two recent articles by S. J. Guastello (1987, 1988) suggest that a change-score least-squares regression model provides a method for testing catastrophe theory models. This article reviews these regression analysis procedures. The problems in the approach are detailed, then demonstrated with computer-generated data sets. The results show that such regression approaches cannot adequately distinguish between data that has arisen from a true catastrophe model and data from a true linear model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Catastrophe modeling of the accident process: Organizational subunit size.

Empirical findings and theory on record attempting to link accident rates with the size of organizational subunits are at best contradictory. In this study, I hypothesized that accident rates are cusp catastrophic in nature and that size acts as a bifurcation variable in the process. Units of analysis were 283 subgroups of a midwestern steel factory. Accident, severity, and size data were collected for four time horizons. I tested the cusp catastrophe hypothesis by using the method of polynomial regression, which permits direct hypothesis testing. R–2 coefficients for the cusp catastrophe ranged from .37 to .51, compared with .03 to .26 for the control models. This article is primarily an illustration of the polynomial regression technique for catastrophe theory hypotheses. The technique is used to solve an apparently intractible theoretical problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

基于变量选择的尖点突变模型的两步构建方法

突变是工程实践过程中广泛存在的现象.当系统的状态发生跳跃性变化时,基于微积分的传统数学建模方法精度较低,人工神经网络等机器学习算法无法对突变现象作出合理的解释.基于突变理论的尖点突变模型可以用来解释系统状态的不连续变化,然而在输入变量维度较大的情况下,传统的尖点突变模型复杂度高且精度较差.为了解决这一问题,提出了一种基于变量选择的尖点突变模型的两步构建方法.第一步,利用多模型集成重要变量选择算法(MEIVS)量化待选变量的重要性并提取重要变量;第二步,基于极大似然法(MLE)利用所提取的重要变量构建尖点突变模型.仿真结果表明,在具有突变特征的数据集上,通过MEIVS降维后的尖点突变模型在评价指标上优于线性模型、Logistic模型和通过其他方法降维的尖点突变模型,并且可以用来解释研究对象的不连续变化.     

Relapse as a nonlinear dynamic system: Application to patients with alcohol use disorders.

Understanding the relapse process is one of the most important issues in addictive behaviors research. To date, most studies have taken a linear approach toward predicting relapse based on risk factors. Nonlinear dynamical systems theory can be used to describe processes that are not adequately modeled using a linear approach. In particular, the authors propose that catastrophe theory, a subset of nonlinear dynamical systems theory, can be used to describe the relapse process in addictive behaviors. Two small prospective studies using 6-month follow-ups of patients with alcohol use disorders (inpatient, n=51; outpatient, n=43) illustrate how cusp catastrophe theory may be used to predict relapse. Results from these preliminary studies indicate that a cusp catastrophe model has more predictive utility than traditional linear models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A theory of marital dissolution and stability.

Research is presented on the prospective longitudinal prediction of marital dissolution. First, a cascade toward marital dissolution is described. Second, the cascade is predicted with variables from a balance theory of marriage. Third, there are process and perception (the distance and isolation cascades) cascades related to the cascade toward dissolution. The importance of "flooding" is discussed, as well as a mechanism through which negative perceptions (which are 2-dimensional) become global and stable and through which the entire history of the marriage is recast negatively. The role of physiology is outlined. A theory is presented in which a "core triad of balance" is formulated in terms of 3 weakly related thermostats (connected by catastrophe theory) and related to the distance and isolation cascade. Implications for a minimal marital therapy are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The self system in reciprocal determinism.

Notes that explanations of human behavior have generally favored unidirectional causal models emphasizing either environmental or internal determinants of behavior. In social learning theory, causal processes are conceptualized in terms of reciprocal determinism. Viewed from this perspective, psychological functioning involves a continuous reciprocal interaction between behavioral, cognitive, and environmental influences. The major controversies between unidirectional and reciprocal models of human behavior center on the issue of self influences. A self system within the framework of social learning theory comprises cognitive structures and subfunctions for perceiving, evaluating, and regulating behavior, not a psychic agent that controls action. The influential role of the self system in reciprocal determinism is documented through a reciprocal analysis of self-regulatory processes. Reciprocal determinism is proposed as a basic analytic principle for analyzing psychosocial phenomena at the level of intrapersonal development, interpersonal transactions, and interactive functioning of organizational and social systems. (62 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Of models and men.

"Although already too complicated for the average psychologist to handle… [theories of learning] are not yet adequate to account for the behavior of a rodent on a runway." A mathematical model is proposed and considered in terms of certain empirical data. Game theory is also considered. A mathematical model emerges which then has a guiding role in the planning and interpretation of further experiments. Correspondences between properties of the model and properties of human behavior are sought as both model and man are "confronted with a series of increasingly novel and complex learning situations." The writer has "found that the steepest obstacle to theory construction in psychology is not the complexity of behavior." Rather it is a combination of centuries of prescientific stereotypes and "the pronouncements of the academicians who have always known in advance, apparently by divine inspiration, exactly what kind of theory is possible and proper for psychology." Experimental subjects will indicate through their behavior to what kind of theory psychology is entitled. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Toward a general theory for the behavioral sciences.

Since 1949 specialists in various social and biological sciences including "… history, anthropology, economics, political science, sociology, social psychology, psychology, psychiatry, medicine, physiology, and mathematical biology" have met in the attempt to develop a theory "… embracing all aspects of behavior." A number of terms useful in the consideration of theory including "system," "boundary," "subsystems," and "coding" are discussed. Formal models of behavior and homologies with electronic systems are considered. The paper is concerned with specifying and elaborating 19 propositions "… each empirically testable at the levels of cell, organ, individual, small group, and society… ." (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The substance and the shadow.

Discusses the relationship between advancing technology (the substance) and good scientific theory (the shadow) in industrial/organizational psychology. Solutions presented for bridging the gap between social science and social technology include utilization of a teamwork approach to understanding problems of human abilities, motivations, and interpersonal behavior. Avoiding being prematurely "locked into" a concept before all alternatives are considered, and the incorporation of real-world data into controlled experimental settings, are advocated. Other methods include construction of models and theories that can be revised and updated as new data are supplied, and the strengthening of informational links between the 2 disciplines. (74 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Animals foraging in the lab: Problems and promises.

Foraging has become a popular catchword in literature like that published in this Journal. Several different kinds of psychological research on foraging can be distinguished. These include tests of optimal foraging models using operant schedules and other simulations, analyses of the mechanisms assumed as constraints in optimality models, tests of the optimality of behavior on arbitrary schedules, and use of seminaturalistic laboratory situations. This kind of work is not without problems. One is that the gap between "real" and simulated foraging has been insufficiently explored. More important, accounts of behavior in terms of function (e.g., optimal foraging theory) are often confused with those in terms of mechanisms of learning, memory, and choice. The most productive research strategy in this area is to juxtapose predictions of functional and mechanistic models and attempt to understand any differences between them. Studies of foraging behavior can also reveal new or poorly studied phenomena. Because optimal foraging theory makes ideas about function explicit and precise, well-formulated investigations of foraging behavior can contribute substantially to understanding learning, memory, and decision processes as biological adaptations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A comparison of linear versus non-linear models of aversive self-awareness, dissociation, and non-suicidal self-injury among young adults.

Research has identified a significant increase in both the incidence and prevalence of non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI). The present study sought to test both linear and non-linear cusp catastrophe models by using aversive self-awareness, which was operationalized as a composite of aversive self-relevant affect and cognitions, and dissociation as predictors of NSSI. The cusp catastrophe model evidenced a better fit to the data, accounting for 6 times the variance (66%) of a linear model (9%-10%). These results support models of NSSI implicating emotion regulation deficits and experiential avoidance in the occurrence of NSSI and provide preliminary support for the use of cusp catastrophe models to study certain types of low base rate psychopathology such as NSSI. These findings suggest novel approaches to prevention and treatment of NSSI as well. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Enhanced lipid peroxidation in hepatic cirrhosis

> Objective: This paper describes the deliberations of an interdisciplinary group of clinical and basic scientists who met at the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to discuss the potential role of fetal behavior in assessing fetal well being and predicting neonatal outcome. The conference focused on three aspects of fetal behavior: 1) habituation; 2) state transitions; and 3) movement. Methods: The participants consisted of 25 leaders in the fields of obstetrics, perinatal medicine, neonatology, developmental psychobiology, developmental neuroscience, developmental psychology, ethology, and mathematics. The meeting was divided into three parts. In each of these a plenary speaker (a recognized expert in his field) began the session with an overview of the scientific theme. Two respondents, with research expertise in fetal research (animal models or human fetuses) followed with remarks on the plenary talk and comments based on their own studies. At the conclusion of these comments, the participants met in small groups to discuss the plenary proceedings and their implications for assessing human fetal well being and predicting outcome. At the conclusion of the small group deliberations all of the participants reconvened in a plenary session. During this part of the meeting a rapporteur from each small group summarized their discussions. Results and Conclusions: 1) Fetal habituation: there was a general consensus that research on this aspect of fetal behavior may have a high payoff for assessing human fetal well being and predicting neonatal outcome. 2) Behavioral state transitions: participants agreed that transitions afford investigators with an indication of when (timing) and how (models) behavior changes within and between developmental periods. Knowledge of transitions during development allows for tracking of behaviors that may be necessary for the fetus to adapt to its in utero environment or prepare for its postnatal life. 3) Chaos theory and fetal movement: participants concluded that non-linear dynamics systems analysis models could be useful to analyze "noise" within a measurement system; better define time scales; and increase resolution and thereby better identify "signals."     

Stagewise cognitive development: An application of catastrophe theory.

Presents an overview of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Making law modern: Toward a contextual model of justice.

Contemporary psychological and legal models of behavior are still fundamentally at odds, and the impending paradigm clash may have profound, long-term consequences for our 21st-century legal doctrines and institutions. The 19th-century "formative era" of American law coincided with the dominance of psychological individualism in the nation's collective view of human nature and resulted in the institutionalization of a now antiquated model of human behavior. As we enter the new millennium, a "New Legal Realism" based on a view of human nature more consistent with contemporary psychological thinking is urged, along with a series of interlocking legal changes intended to both incorporate a more contextual view of human nature into law and improve the quality of justice our system currently dispenses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Same–different discrimination: The keel and backbone of thought and reasoning.

Discriminating same from different collections of items is central to human thought and reasoning. Recent comparative research suggests that same–different discrimination behavior is not uniquely human, does not require human language, is based on the variability of the collection of items, obeys fundamental psychophysical laws, and may be captured by quantitative models of the stimulus collection. The comparative study of same–different discrimination behavior sheds fresh light on the mechanisms and functions of abstract conceptualization. This study also has prompted the development of a theory—the Finding Differences Model—that successfully explains a wealth of findings in the comparative psychology of same–different discrimination behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Clash of the paradigms: A critique of an examination of the polynomial regression technique for evaluating catastrophe theory hypotheses.

The polynomial regression technique for evaluating catastrophe theory hypotheses (S. J. Guastello; 1982, 1987, 1988) has met with criticism from R. A. Alexander et al (see record 1992-18389-001) regarding the specification of terms in the catastrophe model and the order in which they are entered, the role of part–whole correlations, and whether the polynomial regression technique is adequate for discerning the presence or absence of catastrophic structure. Their criticisms are unwarranted and misconceived because of inattention to some fundamental principles of mathematical catastrophe theory, misuse of the polynomial regression technique in their simulations, and an outmoded paradigm of scientific inquiry. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Catastrophic Transitions of Construction Contracting Behavior

The ways to manage a construction project very much depend on the attitude of the people involved. Collectively this is identified as construction contracting behavior (CCB). The CCB of the construction industry is adversarial as pinpointed in many industry-wide reviews. A more cooperative project delivery approach has therefore been advocated. In fact, drive for efficiency provides the incentive for cooperation. Nevertheless, members of a project team, in representing their respective organizations, are often in conflict. The dichotomous pair of cooperation and aggression forces therefore coexist. It is not uncommon to note that CCB turns aggressive as the construction activities of a project intensify. This change is often sudden and thus matches well with the phenomenon of hysteresis described by the catastrophe theory (CT). It is hypothesized that the dynamics of CCB can be modeled by CT. The three-variable CT models include CCB (as dependent variable), cooperation forces (as normal factor) and aggression forces (as splitting factor). With data collected from a survey fitted by the Cuspfit program, it was found that trust intensity is an effective normal factor. Contract incompleteness and competitive inertia are splitting factors that trigger aggression.