How much carbon offsetting and where? Implications of efficiency,effectiveness, and ethicality considerations for public opinion formation

A fundamental policy design choice in government-led climate change mitigation is: what role should flexibility mechanisms like carbon offsetting play in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since public opinion affects the policy choices of government, we investigate how arguments regarding carbon offsetting's economic efficiency, effectiveness, and ethicality, which have been key points in the public debate, impact the public's preferences. We fielded an online framing experiment in the United States (N=995) to empirically identify how arguments for and against carbon offsetting influence public preferences for the inclusion of offsetting in national GHG mitigation policy. We find that the public's support for international offsetting increases and support for reductions at their source (i.e. within firms' own operations) diminishes when considerations of economic efficiency gains are at the forefront. Support for offsetting declines when individuals are confronted with arguments concerning its effectiveness and ethicality, which suggests that future policies will require clear standards of additionality in order to address these concerns. Moreover, we find that how carbon offsetting is framed matters even amongst climate skeptics and support could potentially be enhanced via improved communication on efficiency gains.     

The Kyoto mechanisms and the prospects for renewable energy technologies

The Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Change Convention sets out legally binding emission targets and timetables for developed countries. In order to ease compliance, it allows countries to achieve their emission targets through the ‘Kyoto Mechanisms’. These mechanisms comprise International Emissions Trading (ET), Joint Implementation (JI), and a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This paper analyses the capacity of the proposed mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol to promote investment in renewable energy technologies (RETs). Analysis of abatement costing studies indicates that the increasing use of renewable energy tends to be a higher cost option compared with other greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technologies. This finding, however, does not make RETs unattractive for GHG mitigation as such because, apart from their vast technical potential to reduce GHG emissions, RETs have great capacity to contribute to other aspects of sustainable development. The extent of investment into renewable energy induced by the Kyoto mechanisms will depend on whether the rules and guidelines that are to be developed in the coming years will explicitly support renewables. The Kyoto mechanisms could be instrumental in leading to significant investment into these resources if rules are defined appropriately.     

Accelerating the development and diffusion of new energy technologies: Beyond the “valley of death”

There are at least three motivations for government intervention in GHG mitigation: (1) inducing the private sector to reduce GHG emissions directly by setting a price on emissions, (2) increasing the amount of innovative activity in GHG mitigation technology development, and (3) educating the public regarding GHG-reducing investment opportunities, allowing consumers to make better private decisions. This paper discusses the pros and cons of policy instruments that might be used to respond to these motivations and makes recommendations for an appropriate mix of policy instruments over time given both economic and policital/instituional considerations.     

International energy R&D spillovers and the economics of greenhouse gas atmospheric stabilization

It is now widely recognized that technological change will play a substantial role in reducing GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy-related technological change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption capacity is also endogenous in the model. The basic questions are as follows. Do knowledge spillovers enhance energy-related technological innovation in different regions of the world? Does the speed of innovation increase? Or do free-riding incentives prevail and international spillovers crowd out domestic R&D efforts? What is the role of domestic absorption capacity and of policies designed to enhance it? Do greenhouse gas stabilization costs drop in the presence of international technological spillovers? The new specification of the WITCH model presented in this paper enables us to answer these questions. Our analysis shows that international knowledge spillovers tend to increase free-riding incentives and decrease the investments in energy R&D. The strongest cuts in energy R&D investments are recorded among High Income countries, where international knowledge flows crowd out domestic R&D efforts. The overall domestic pool of knowledge, and thus total net GHG stabilization costs, remain largely unaffected. International spillovers, however, are also an important policy channel. We therefore analyze the implication of a policy-mix in which climate policy is combined with a technology policy designed to enhance absorption capacity in Low Income countries. Significant positive impacts on the costs of stabilizing GHG concentrations are singled out. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that High Income countries are more responsive than Low Income countries to changes in the parameters. Additional empirical research efforts should thus be focused on the former.     

Flexible power generation scenarios for biogas plants operated in Germany: impacts on economic viability and GHG emissions

Biogas plants enable power to be generated in a flexible way so that variable, renewable energy sources can be integrated into the energy system. In Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act promotes flexible power generation in biogas plants. Two existing biogas plants in flexible operation were analyzed with respect to economic viability and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to assess the feasibility of flexible operation. To do this, a biogas technology simulation model was developed to reproduce the technical design of both biogas plants and to link this design with twelve flexibilization scenarios. The evaluation of the economic viability is based on a discounting method of investment appraisal. For assessing the level of GHG emissions, the life cycle assessment method has been applied. The results show that the profitability of flexibilization is contingent upon premium payments promoting flexibility and direct sales resulting from a higher electrical efficiency of new or additionally installed combined heat and power units. Overall, with respect to profitability, the results of the flexible power generation scenarios are dependent upon the properties of the technical plant, such as its power generation and gas storage capacities. Relative GHG emissions from flexible biogas plants show significantly lower values than for referenced fossil gas–steam power stations. Among the various scenarios, the results reveal that the level of GHG emissions especially depends on the number of operating hours of the additional combined heat and power unit(s). The results of the analyzed biogas plants showed no direct correlation between GHG emissions and the economic benefits. Overall, a flexible power generation of biogas plants may improve the economic viability as well as result in lower GHG emissions in comparison with a conventional base load operation. © 2016 The Authors. International Journal of Energy Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from Spanish motorway transport: Key aspects and mitigation solutions

The current increasing importance of road transport in the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the adoption of diverse policies for the mitigation of global warming. These policies focus in two directions, depending on whether they involve the reduction of emissions or the mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration. In this paper, the Tier 3 methodology from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and the Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) was applied to determine the evolution of Spanish motorway GHG emissions in the period 2005–2010. According to the results, though the average daily traffic (ADT) is the major parameter, the average fleet age and vehicle size also affect the level of emissions. Data analysis also revealed a clear connection between the decrease in European trade volume during the financial crisis and the GHG release, despite its temporary character. Among the three improvement scenarios evaluated, reduced speed limit seems the most direct measure while the consequences of afforestation strongly depend on the traffic density of the stretch of the motorway considered. Finally, technological improvement requires a drastic change in the fleet to obtain substantial decrease. The combination of different policies would allow a more robust strategy with lower GHG emissions.     

An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.     

Embodied greenhouse gas emission by Macao

Comprehensive inventory of cities' greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is the basis for cities to make appropriate mitigation plans. However, previous studies on cities' GHG emissions consider emissions occurring within the city boundary (Scope 1) and out of boundary electricity emissions (Scope 2), but neglect indirect emissions associated with commodities consumed by cities (Scope 3), resulting in emission leakage. To cope with this problem, a systematic accounting covering all 3 scopes is presented in a case study of Macao for the years 2005–2009, based on the latest embodied emission intensity databases for China and for the world. The results show that total emissions are dominated by indirect emissions mainly embodied in imports, which is 3–4 times direct emissions during the period concerned. It is verified that accounting under Scopes 1 and 2 cannot capture the full picture of cities' emissions, especially cities like Macao which are dominated by service industry and inevitably sustained by massive materials and services from other regions. Our study suggests that Macao should adjust its current GHG mitigation policies which consider only its emissions occurring within its border, as Macao is a net GHG emissions importer. This work is the first assessment of Macao's embodied GHG emissions.     

Climate consequences of low-carbon fuels: The United States Renewable Fuel Standard

A common strategy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use is to increase the supply of low-carbon alternatives. However, increasing supply tends to lower energy prices, which encourages additional fuel consumption. This “fuel market rebound effect” can undermine climate change mitigation strategies, even to the point where efforts to reduce GHG emissions by increasing the supply of low-carbon fuels may actually result in increased GHG emissions. Here, we explore how policies that encourage the production of low-carbon fuels may result in increased GHG emissions because the resulting increase in energy use overwhelms the benefits of reduced carbon intensity. We describe how climate change mitigation strategies should follow a simple rule: a low-carbon fuel with a carbon intensity of X% that of a fossil fuel must displace at least X% of that fossil fuel to reduce overall GHG emissions. We apply this rule to the United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). We show that absent consideration of the fuel market rebound effect, RFS2 appears to reduce GHG emissions, but once the fuel market rebound effect is factored in, RFS2 actually increases GHG emissions when all fuel GHG intensity targets are met.     

Environmental and economic feasibility of sugarcane ethanol for the Mexican transport sector

This study analyzes the environmental and economic feasibility of ethanol produced from sugarcane for use as a potential gasoline substitute in the Mexican transport sector from 2010 to 2030. One scenario was created by projecting the historical trend of energy demand assuming that a fraction of this demand is satisfied with ethanol produced from the cultivation of 2.9 million hectares of sugarcane. A life cycle study was performed according to the recommendations from the European Union Directive on Renewable Energies (that include direct land use change emissions) and was used to estimate life cycle Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The method used by Fingerman et al. (2010) was adopted to estimate the water consumption. In the economic analysis, the production cost of ethanol was calculated, and a mitigation cost for carbon dioxide equivalent emissions was estimated. The potential for employment generation was also estimated. The results demonstrate that water use increases by 29.4 times and that the costs increase by 10,706 million USD with the alternative scenario. This scenario, however, has the potential to create 560,619 direct jobs. Furthermore, GHG mitigation is confirmed since the reference scenario resulted in GHG gasoline life cycle emissions of 78.7 kgCO_2e/GJ while the alternative scenario resulted in Ethanol GHG emissions in the life cycle of 57.52 kgCO_2e/GJ.     

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.     

Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions during the production of a passenger car in China

Rapidly-rising oil demand and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road vehicles in China, passenger cars in particular, have attracted worldwide attention. As most studies to date were focused on the vehicle operation stage, the present study attempts to evaluate the energy demand and GHG emissions during the vehicle production process, which usually consists of two major stages—material production and vehicle assembly. Energy demand and GHG emissions in the material production stage are estimated using the following data: the mass of the vehicle, the distribution of material used by mass, and energy demand and GHG emissions associated with the production of each material. Energy demand in the vehicle assembly stage is estimated as a linear function of the vehicle mass, while the associated GHG emission is estimated according to the primary energy sources. It is concluded that the primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions during the production of a medium-sized passenger car in China are 69,108 MJ, 14,545 MJ and 6575 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq). Primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions in China’s passenger car fleets in 2005 would be increased by 22%, 5% and 30%, respectively, if the vehicle production stage were included.     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential of rice husks for An Giang province, Vietnam

To evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation potential of rice husk utilization, a life cycle inventory analysis was conducted for 18 scenarios. The allocation of fuels, other than rice husks, was decided based on the current demand for and supply of rice husks. To prevent the bulky nature of rice husks, briquette production is also discussed. In the power generation scenarios, the differences between two capacities (5 MW and 30 MW) were analyzed. The results of analysis reveal that CH₄ and N₂O emissions from open burning contribute largely to the current GHG emissions. Therefore, ceasing open burning alone has a large GHG mitigation potential. The use of briquettes, even though GHG is emitted during the production stage, can still contribute to GHG emission mitigation as the production is more efficient than rice husk burning or dumping. In the power generation scenarios, most GHG emissions were derived from the combustion process. Therefore, gasification which has a little combustion process is the most efficient GHG mitigator. Both the replacement of grid electricity by generated electricity, and the replacement of diesel oil by pyrolyzed oil show larger GHG mitigation potentials than what could be derived from open burning cessation alone.     

Greenhouse gas balances and mitigation costs of 70 modern Germany-focused and 4 traditional biomass pathways including land-use change effects

With Germany as the point of energy end-use, 70 current and future modern pathways plus 4 traditional biomass pathways for heat, power and transport have been compiled and examined in one single greenhouse gas (GHG) balancing assessment. This is needed to broaden the narrow focus on biofuels for transport and identify the role of bioenergy in GHG mitigation. Sensitivity analysis for land-use changes and fossil reference systems are included. Co-firing of woody biomass and fermentation of waste biomass are the most cost-efficient and effective biomass applications for GHG emission reduction in modern pathways. Replacing traditional biomass with modern biomass applications offers an underestimated economic potential of GHG emission reduction. The range of maximum CO₂ equivalent GHG reduction potential of bioenergy is identified in a range of 2.5-16 Gt a⁻¹ in 2050 (5-33% of today’s global GHG emissions), and has an economic bioenergy potential of 150 EJ a⁻¹.     

Can China afford to commit itself an emissions cap? An economic and political analysis

As the world’s second largest carbon emitter, China has long been criticised as a ‘free-rider’ enjoying benefits from other countries’ efforts to abate greenhouse gas emissions but not taking due responsibilities of its own. China has been singled out as one of the major targets at the subsequent negotiations after the Kyoto curtain had fallen. By analysing the historical contributions of inter-fuel switching, energy conservation, economic growth and population expansion to China’s CO₂ emissions during the period 1980–1997, this article first demonstrates that the above criticism cannot hold its ground. Next, we analyse what the economic effects would be if China’s carbon emissions in 2010 were cut by 20 and 30%, respectively, relative to the baseline. We found that China’s GNP losses under the two less restrictive carbon limits are in the same range as the often reported estimates for industrialised countries under very restrictive carbon limits. Then the article envisions some efforts and commitments that could be expected from China until its per capita income catches up with the level of middle-developed countries. By emphasising the win–win strategies, these efforts and commitments could be unlikely to severely jeopardise China’s economic development and, at the same time, would give the country more leverage at the post-Kyoto climate change negotiations. Finally, the article is concluded with the argument that combating global climate change is in China’s interest. It will be beneficial to a more sustainable development of the Chinese economy as well as to the global climate.     

Air quality and climate change co-benefits for the industrial sector in Durban,South Africa

Industries in Durban, South Africa, are a major source of air pollutant emissions and large users of fossil fuel based energy. Durban’s energy strategy prioritises energy efficiency at industries as a key action, whilst industries are also the focus of the city’s air quality management plan (AQMP). In this paper, measures that have been introduced in industries in Durban to effect air quality improvements and reduce energy consumption are examined in terms of their respective impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions. It was found that co-benefits for GHG mitigation were achieved when petroleum refineries switched from using heavy fuel oil to refinery gas and methane rich gas. Within other industries, co-benefits for air quality stemmed from reducing fossil fuel energy consumption and the improved efficiency of combustion systems. Air quality and energy policies in the city are being executed independently, without consideration of the trade-offs or synergies of the interventions being implemented. Recommendations are made for authorities and industries to consider the co-benefits for GHG mitigation in their AQMPs and where these are not possible to consider offsetting the increased GHG emissions through improved alignment with energy strategies.     

Decoupling urban transport from GHG emissions in Indian cities—A critical review and perspectives

How to sustain rapid economic and urban growth with minimised detriment to environment is a key challenge for sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries, which face constraints of technical and financial resources scarcity as well as dearth of infrastructure governance capacity. This paper attempts to address this question by investigating the driving forces of transport demand and relevant policy measures that facilitate mitigating GHG emissions in the urban transport sector in Indian cities based on a critical review of the literature. Our overview of existing literature and international experiences suggests that it is critical to improve urban governance in transport infrastructure quality and develop efficient public transport, coupled with integrated land use/transport planning as well as economic instruments. This will allow Indian cities to embark on a sustainable growth pathway by decoupling transport services demand of GHG emissions in the longer term. Appropriate policy instruments need to be selected to reconcile the imperatives of economic and urban growth, aspiration to higher quality of life, improvements in social welfare, urban transport-related energy consumption and GHG emissions mitigation target in Indian cities.     

Encouraging the implementation of small renewable electricity CDM projects: An economic analysis of different options

Apart from contributing to the mitigation of GHG emissions, the deployment of renewable electricity Clean Development Mechanism projects (RE-CDM) may provide substantial local economic, social and environmental sustainability benefits to host countries. However, in spite of these advantages, a wide array of barriers prevents the realisation of these projects. They compete with other CDM options which lead to cheaper GHG emissions reductions but which do not provide as much opportunities for sustainable development in developing countries. Taking into account that, in contrast to GHG benefits, sustainability benefits are not valued in the market place and that article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol envisages two objectives for the CDM (cost-effective emissions reductions and contribution to sustainability), this market mechanism might be leading to a “market failure” in RE-CDM projects. This paper explores the different barriers affecting the implementation of RE-CDM projects and proposes and analyses several policies and measures that could be implemented to encourage their deployment by tackling those obstacles.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.