Retrospective and prospective decomposition analysis of Chinese manufacturing energy use and policy implications

AimsThe industrial sector dominates the China's total energy consumption, accounting for about 70% of energy use in 2010. Hence, this study aims to investigate the development path of China's industrial sector which will greatly affect future energy demand and dynamics of not only China, but the entire world.ScopeThis study analyzes energy use and the economic structure of the Chinese manufacturing sector. The retrospective (1995–2010) and prospective (2010–2020) decomposition analyses are conducted for manufacturing sectors in order to show how different factors (production growth, structural change, and energy intensity change) influenced industrial energy use trends in China over the last 15 years and how they will do so up to 2020.ConclusionsThe forward looking (prospective) decomposition analyses are conducted for three different scenarios. The scenario analysis indicates that if China wants to realize structural change in the manufacturing sector by shifting from energy-intensive and polluting industries to less energy-intensive industries, the value added average annual growth rates (AAGRs) to 2015 and 2020 should be more in line with those shown in scenario 3. The assumed value added AAGRs for scenario 3 are relatively realistic and are informed by possible growth that is foreseen for each subsector.     

Reconciling energy efficiency and energy intensity metrics: an integrated decomposition analysis

We develop and illustrate a method for reconciling index decomposition analysis of energy intensity with physically based, sector-specific energy efficiency indicators. Decomposition analysis of individual sector intensity contributions to total energy intensity is nested within the higher-order decomposition analysis of E/GDP such that the contribution of energy efficiency gains to changes in total energy intensity can be determined. Energy, economic and physical activity data for Canada for the period 1995–2010 are used to illustrate the method. Intrasector structural factors were found to be both positive and negative and to be significant contributors to energy intensities in both the business and household sectors. In aggregate, intrasectoral structural change offset energy efficiency gains and put upward pressure on (E/GDP) between 1995 and 2010 but was three times smaller than the offsetting decline in E/GDP due to intersectoral structural change. The method can be used for assessing the contribution of energy efficiency to sector energy intensities; for placing energy efficiency policies in the larger context of the other factors that determine an economy’s energy intensity and greenhouse gas emissions; for identifying non-efficiency policy targets for improving energy productivity; and for increasing the sophistication of forecasting and scenario analysis of future levels and patterns of fuel and electricity consumption and related greenhouse gas emissions.     

Has energy conservation been an effective policy for Thailand? An input–output structural decomposition analysis from 1995 to 2010

Thailand has depended heavily on imported fossil fuels since the 1990s, which hindered the nation's economic development because it created uncertainty in the nation's fuel supply. An energy conservation policy was implemented in 1995 to require industries to reduce their energy intensity (EI) and consumption immediately. This study investigates the effectiveness of the policy between 1995 and 2010 using the hybrid input–output approach. Surprisingly, EI improvement was observed in only a few sectors, such as transportation, non-metallic, paper, and textile. An embodied energy decomposition analysis revealed that while households were the largest energy consumer in 1995, energy consumption in exports exceeded that of households in 2000, 2005 and 2010. In addition, structural decomposition analysis revealed the final demand effect was the strongest factor in determining the efficacy of energy conservation, whereas the energy efficiency effect was not an effective factor as expected for decreasing energy consumption. Policy barriers and conflicting economic plans were factors that affected the outcome of these energy policies.     

Industrial CO2 emissions from energy use in Korea: A structural decomposition analysis

This paper attempts to quantify energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the industrial sectors of Korea. The sources of the changes in CO₂ emissions for the years 1990–2003 are investigated, in terms of a total of eight factors, through input–output structural decomposition analysis: changes in emission coefficient (caused by shifts in energy intensity and carbon intensity); changes in economic growth; and structural changes (in terms of shifts in domestic final demand, exports, imports of final and intermediate goods, and production technology). The results show that the rate of growth of industrial CO₂ emissions has drastically decreased since the 1998 financial crisis in Korea. The effect on emission reductions due to changes in energy intensity and domestic final demand surged in the second period (1995–2000), while the impact of exports steeply rose in the third period (2000–2003). Of all the individual factors, economic growth accounted for the largest increase in CO₂ emissions. The results of this analysis can be used to infer the potential for emission-reduction in Korea.     

Index decomposition analysis with multidimensional and multilevel energy data

Index decomposition analysis (IDA) is a popular tool for analyzing changes in energy consumption over time. Traditionally, a typical IDA study uses a single dimensional energy dataset, such as industrial energy consumption by industrial sector or transportation energy consumption by transport mode. More recently, there have been a growing number of studies using more sophisticated datasets, e.g. energy consumption by geographical region and by economic sector in a single dataset. For IDA studies using energy data with multiple attributes, intermediate decomposition results can be generated using subsets of the entire dataset, and these results provide further insight into the energy system and problem studied. To ensure that these intermediate results are consistent and meaningful, the IDA method used should ideally satisfy two properties: perfect in decomposition at the subcategory level and consistency in aggregation. It is shown that the logarithmic mean Divisia index method I (LMDI-I) satisfies these two properties in both additive and multiplicative decomposition analysis. It is therefore the recommended IDA method when dealing with energy data with multiple attributes.     

Assessment of long-term sustainable end-use energy demand in Romania*

Romania is the 10th largest economy in EU-28 and also one of the fastest growing economies in the region. An end-use energy demand model is developed for Romania to assess energy requirement by sector and by end-use for 2015–2050 period. Industry would surpass residential sector as the largest final energy-consuming sector from 2035 onwards. Services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption. Despite expected decline in country’s population, demand for electricity would grow in the future driven by increased household income and expanded services sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, Romania’s per capita electricity consumption would be about half of the EU-28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in industry, space heating in the residential and services, and road passenger travel in transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. Improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system exhibits the highest potential of energy saving.     

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Poland

AbstractFor the European Union's Member States 2001/77/EC Directive on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market determined targets for 2010 of 21% share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption. Particular Member States adopted different measures for development of renewable and in consequence they achieved different results. Poland, being Member State of the EU since 2004 has accepted target of 7.5% for electricity generated from renewable energy sources until 2010. Currently, in this decade, new 2009/28/EC Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources plays significant role in development of renewable energy sources. Directive set new target for 2020. Nowadays is a time for summary and assessment of results fulfilling Directives and monitor progress of new targets. Article presents measures implemented for renewable source energy development, also current state and perspectives of using of renewable energy sources in Poland and in the EU.     

The unrecognized contribution of renewable energy to Europe's energy savings target

We show that renewable energy contributes to Europe's 2020 primary energy savings target. This contribution, which is to a large extent still unknown and not recognized by policy makers, results from the way renewable energy is dealt with in Europe's energy statistics. We discuss the policy consequences and argue that the ‘energy savings’ occurring from the accounting of renewable energy should not distract attention from demand-side energy savings in sectors such as transport, industry and the built environment. The consequence of such a distraction could be that many of the benefits from demand-side energy savings, for example lower energy bills, increase of the renewable energy share in energy consumption without investing in new renewable capacity, and long-term climate targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 80%, will be missed. Such distraction is not hypothetical since Europe's 2020 renewable energy target is binding whereas the 2020 primary energy savings target is only indicative.     

基于结构分解法的昆明市能耗水平研究

通过对2005~2010年昆明市能源消费及国民经济统计指标分析,得出各年单位GDP能耗及能耗水平变动情况,在此基础上利用结构分解法对2005~2010年影响昆明市能耗变动的主要因素进行分析。2005年以来昆明市能耗下降得益于三次产业能源利用效率提高,但第二产业比重的回升阻碍了能耗的进一步下降。"十二五"期间,昆明市亟需优化产业结构、调整能源结构、提升能源利用效率,才能完成单位GDP能耗下降目标。     

LMDI decomposition analysis of energy consumption in Andalusia (Spain) during 2003–2012: the energy efficiency policy implications

The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in final energy consumption in Andalusia through logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis during the period 2003–2012. The results lead us to conclude that a reduction of final energy (FE) consumption of 1 % took place as a result of a diminishing in structural effect by 11 % and an increase in the activity effect and intensity effect by 7.4 and 3.5 %, respectively. Chain-linked LMDI decomposition shows the existence of two sub-periods, with a turning point in 2008. The first period, coinciding to a great extent with the Andalusian Energy Plan 2003–2006 (PLEAN), showed an increase in final energy consumption, mostly due to the activity effect but also to the intensity effect. The second period, coinciding with the implementation of the Andalusian Sustainable Energy Plan 2007–2013 (PASENER), shows a reduction in the activity, structure and intensity effects. The results allow us to conclude that many of the energy efficiency measures, implemented through the PASENER, are related to sectors that experienced a decline in energy consumption due to the intensity effect, such as transport, primary and service sectors. Additionally, although they were included in PASENER, more policy attention should be given to the energy transformation, residential and industrial sectors which increased the demand for energy due to the intensity effect during this period. Finally, the energy-saving behaviour of economic agents due to the economic downturn should also be considered as an explanation for the diminishing in energy consumption during this sub-period.     

Applying ex-post index decomposition analysis to primary energy consumption for evaluating progress towards European energy efficiency targets

Monitoring the progress of the European Union and its Member States towards the EU’s energy efficiency target is a crucial part of the mandatory process as defined in the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU. In this paper, we conduct index decomposition analyses to show the effects of both policies and autonomous developments driving the changes of primary energy consumption for the European Union (EU28) and its Member States for the time period of 2000 to 2014, with a comparative analysis of Germany and Poland. These analyses are based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and primarily on data compiled by Eurostat. They are carried out on two levels, i.e. on the level of total primary energy consumption as well as on the level of primary energy consumption related to electricity generation. The first level examines the influences of changes in final energy consumption and changes within the energy conversion sector on primary energy consumption. With the second level, we provide insights into the effects of changes in electricity consumption and production. According to our first-level analysis, the consumption of primary energy in the EU28 is primarily influenced by an increased share of electrical energy and the counteracting effect of rising efficiency in electricity generation, induced by an increasing share of renewable energies. Furthermore, the reduction of final energy consumption had a significant decreasing influence on primary energy consumption in the European Union. The second level of our analysis regarding electricity generation shows that the increasing effect on primary energy consumption due to the rising consumption of electricity was mainly compensated by substituting nuclear and thermal power plants by renewable energy technologies.     

The long-run and short-run effects of oil price on energy consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from structural breaks analysis

ABSTRACT

Since its revolution in 2010, Tunisia has known a drastic decrease of its GDP reaching the lowest level during the two last decades. In this context, this paper examines the relationship between oil prices, GDP and energy consumption for Tunisia over the 1986–2014 period. The error-correction model (VECM) is employed to investigate the dynamic causality relationships among the variables. In the short run, we find unidirectional causality from oil price and energy consumption to GDP, but this does not indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and GDP to oil price. In the long run, our results suggest the existence of a bi-directional Granger causality between oil price, energy consumption, and GDP. We thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in Tunisia, such as encouraging the development of renewable energy, controlling energy consumption through more ambitious programs of energy efficiency and rational use of energy.     

Analysis of energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction in the Chinese pulp and paper industry

Pulp and paper production, an energy-intensive process, is among the main light industries contributing to energy saving and pollution emission reduction in China. The improvement of energy efficiency is essential for energy consumption and sustainable development. This study analyzes the negative factors in the pulp and paper sector by calculating energy efficiency from the lengthways time and investigating the gap between China and foreign countries through a horizontal comparison. Accordingly, energy efficiency has increased in the Chinese pulp and paper industry with years of efforts, but its transformation remains unclear. Furthermore, the energy-saving potential, energy cost saving, and carbon dioxide emission reduction in the pulp and paper industry are evaluated according to the Twelfth Five-year Plan (2011–2015). The results show that the pulp and paper industry has further capabilities for energy-saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction by improving energy efficiency in China, resulting in great economic benefit. In brief, new technology and energy structure adjustment are long-term strategies for energy conversation, with changes in the scale of mills expected to provide huge opportunities to improve energy efficiency in China within a short period.     

Analysis and decomposition of energy consumption in the Chilean industry

With rising energy costs and climate change concerns, energy efficiency will be important in maintaining competitiveness and reducing the environmental impact of industrial activities. In this paper we study the Chilean industrial sector, which is the largest consumer of energy within the country. Energy demand and CO₂ emissions in Chile have grown rapidly in recent years while energy supply is mostly imported and subject to disruption. Therefore, it is important to understand energy consumption in this sector and determine which sub-sectors have the greatest potential to reduce energy consumption. We used the Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA), applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method I (LMDI-I), to quantify the impact of diverse driving factors on energy consumption. Furthermore, a panel data analysis was used to determine whether there are differences in energy intensity across firms with different characteristics. Our results show that energy intensity has risen over time although energy consumption remains stable. This fact supports the idea that energy efficiency policies could play an important role for the industrial sector. Additionally, energy consumption and energy intensity follow different patterns in each sub-sector; therefore we conclude that the application of differentiated sectoral policies is preferable over a single global policy.     

Forecasting the transport energy demand based on PLSR method in China

Transportation sector accounts for a major share of energy consumption in China, especially the petroleum products, which experienced rapid increases in energy demand. The purpose of this study is to forecast transport energy demand for 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on partial least square regression (PLSR) method under two scenarios. Transport energy demand is analyzed for the period of 1990–2006 based on gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization rate, passenger-turnover and freight-turnover. This method suggests that transport energy demand for 2020 will reach to a level of around 433.13 Mtce and 468.26 Mtce, respectively. Those figures are very close to the estimation obtained by Energy Research Institute of China. Thus this study provides an effective tool, which can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques for the transport energy demand.     

基于组合赋权与聚类的城市节能指标分解研究

目的  “双碳”目标的提出赋予了能源消费强度下降和总量“双控”工作新的要求与内涵,在确保能效优先的同时,应充分考虑地区发展阶段,合理确保“双控”指标层层分解落实。 方法  以某市“十四五”能耗“双控”指标分解为例,选取可反映各区县（市）经济水平、能耗体量、节能潜力以及“十三五”节能目标完成情况的量化指标,构建基于层次分析和客观赋权相结合的组合赋权分配模型,对各指标进行权值计算,得出“双控”指标分配结果,再以聚类分析法对指标体系进行差异化分与类别聚合。 结果  通过对照组合赋权与聚类分析结果,基于多指标组合赋权和聚类分析的地区能耗强度下降目标分解算法均能得出基本一致的分解方案。 结论  再基于上述2种方法的结果,结合实际经济发展状况和政府管理需求,给予不同档次的能耗管理目标,兼顾了地区发展差异,符合国家“十四五”能耗“双控”制度要求和分解原则,具备可复制可推广的特性。     

The impact of international GHG trading regimes on penetration of new energy technologies and feasibility to implement EU Energy and Climate Package targets

The EU's new energy and environment policy - agreed by government leaders in their Council meeting in March 2007 - established a political agenda to tackle three core energy objectives: sustainability, economic competitiveness and security of supply. A triad of specific policies addresses these challenges: first, the 20/20/20 targets of the EU; then, the Second Strategic Energy Review of the European Commission; and finally, plans to liberalise energy markets. The European Union's ‘20/20/20′ targets for 2020: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% comparing with 1990 level (to become a 30% reduction if other major global economies join), increase the share of renewables in the final energy consumption to 20% and to achieve 20% improvement in energy efficiency compared to the level in 2020 if existing trends were to continue.The aim of the paper is to analyse the feasibility of EU to implement 20/20/20 targets under the various international GHG trading regimes. GHG trading regimes were addressed by developing 10 energy scenarios until 2020 for EU by applying several energy modelling tools ranging from top down partial equilibrium to detailed technology based bottom up models.     

Determinants of energy demand in the French service sector: A decomposition analysis

This paper analyzes the changes in the energy consumption of the service sector in France over the period 1995–2006, using the logarithmic mean Divisia index I (LMDI I) decomposition method. The analysis is carried out at various disaggregation levels to highlight the specifics of each sub-sector and end-use according to their respective determinants. The results show that in this period the economic growth of the service sector was the main factor that led to the increase in total energy consumption. Structure, productivity, substitution and intensity effects restricted this growth, but with limited effect. By analyzing each end-use, this paper enables a more precise understanding of the impact of these factors. The activity effect was the main determinant of the increase in energy consumption for all end-uses except for air conditioning, for which the equipment rate effect was the main factor. Structural changes in the service sector primarily impacted energy consumption for space heating and cooking. Improvements in productivity limited the growth of energy consumption for all end-uses except for cooking. Finally, energy efficiency improvements mainly affected space-heating energy use.     

Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

Five years left – How are the EU member states contributing to the 20% target for EU's renewable energy consumption; the role of woody biomass

The European Union has set ambitious targets of raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources from 20% by 2020 to 27% by 2030. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of woody biomass in renewable energy as gross final energy consumption in the European Union (the EU-28). The paper identifies leading and lagging countries in biomass development by focusing on their current biomass use and forecasts future perspectives. The research compares and evaluates the role of biomass in renewable energy in the EU-28 focusing on countries' potential resources and policy support. The study shows that all countries are making efforts to reach the 20% target in 2020 and exhibit a trend of increasing renewable energy as gross final energy consumption towards the new target of 2030. Solid biomass plays an important role in reaching the EU's renewable energy targets. The majority of the EU-28 countries are close to reaching their national renewable energy targets and show a very attractive biomass development. Unless energy consumption decreases however, some member states will face serious problems in reaching their renewable energy target in 2020. Following our analysis, the largest problems occur in those MS having a relative high-energy consumption pattern: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. It is unlikely that they can comply with expected renewable energy demand, unless they mobilize more woody biomass from their available domestic potential (France, Germany) or considerably increase their woody biomass imports (mostly wood pellets) from elsewhere (United Kingdom).