Double dividend effectiveness of energy tax policies and the elasticity of substitution: A CGE appraisal

There is a considerable body of literature that has studied whether or not an adequately designed tax swap, whereby an ecotax is levied and some other tax is reduced while keeping government income constant, may achieve a so-called double dividend, that is, an increase in environmental quality and an increase in overall efficiency. Arguments in favor and against are abundant. Our position is that the issue should be empirically studied starting from an actual, non-optimal tax system structure and by way of checking the responsiveness of equilibria to revenue neutral tax regimes under alternate scenarios regarding technological substitution. With the use of a CGE model, we find that the most critical elasticity for achieving a double dividend is the substitution elasticity between labor and capital whereas the elasticity that would generate the highest reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is the substitution elasticity among energy goods.     

Carbon control policies, competitiveness, and border tax adjustments

Several propositions have recently been made to use border tax adjustments (BTAs) to address the loss of competitiveness induced by unilateral stringent domestic pollution control policies. This paper explores in a general equilibrium framework the sectoral and welfare implications of a unilateral domestic GHG control policy combined with a BTA scheme. Using the Canadian economy as an illustration, we assess the extent to which BTAs achieve their objectives and analyze the impacts of different methods of recycling the BTA proceeds to support domestic industries. Our simulation results suggest that imposing BTAs on the imports of non-fossil and energy-intensive products reduces or removes completely the negative competitiveness impacts that domestic industries suffer from. The use of the proceeds of the BTAs to support domestic energy-intensive industries improves their competitiveness and, more importantly, in some cases, overprotects them, as it allows them to even increase their output in comparison to the benchmark without emissions control. Our results also shed light on the existence of heterogeneity in the composition of energy-intensive industries as far as the recycling method of the BTA proceeds is concerned. Energy-intensive industries that are more oriented toward the domestic market are better off with the recycling of the BTA proceeds towards gross output than towards exports alone. Finally, abstracting from the environmental benefits of reduced emissions, we find that a BTA entails a higher welfare cost to households.     

Inequality across countries in energy intensities: An analysis of the role of energy transformation and final energy consumption

This paper analyzes the role of the energy transformation index and of final energy consumption per GDP unit in the disparities in energy intensity across countries. In that vein, we use a Theil decomposition approach to analyze global primary energy intensity inequality as well as inequality across different regions of the world and inequality within these regions. The paper first demonstrates the pre-eminence of divergence in final energy consumption per GDP unit in explaining global primary energy intensity inequality and its evolution during the 1971-2006 period. Secondly, it shows the lower (albeit non negligible) impact of the transformation index in global primary energy inequality. Thirdly, the relevance of regions as unit of analysis in studying cross-country energy intensity inequality and their explanatory factors is highlighted. And finally, how regions around the world differ as to the relevance of the energy transformation index in explaining primary energy intensity inequality.     

Environmental efficiency of the Indian cement industry: An interstate analysis

Coal combustion, for the production of cement, generates considerable amount of environmentally detrimental carbon dioxide as an undesirable by-product. Thus, this paper aims at measuring environmental efficiency within a joint production framework of both desirable and undesirable output using Data Envelopment Analysis and Directional Distance Function. Carbon dioxide is considered as an input in one context and as an undesirable output in the other with the environmental efficiency being defined accordingly. Using 3 digit sate level data from the Annual Survey of Industries for the years 2000–2001 through 2004–2005, the proposed models are applied to estimate environmental efficiency of Indian cement industry. Empirical results show that there is enough potential for the industry to improve its environmental efficiency with efficiency being varied across states. Results also show that Indian cement industry, if faced with environmental regulation, has the potential to expand desirable output and contract undesirable output with the given inputs. However, regulation has a potential cost in terms of lower feasible expansion of desirable output as compared to unregulated scenario.     

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a “with-policy” baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption — that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.     

Household energy consumption versus income and relative standard of living: A panel approach

Our fundamental premise is that energy consumption at the household level is a key indicator of standard of living. We employ state-of-the-art panel cointegration techniques to evaluate the nature of the relationship between income measures and energy consumption measures for seven East Indian Ocean countries. The general finding is that income and household electricity consumption are not cointegrated. Given this finding, we conclude that standard of living measures that rely on income measures and do not include household-level energy consumption information will necessarily miss important indications of both levels and changes of standard of living.     

Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM): Theoretical concepts and basic rationale

The multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach makes it possible to perform a check on the feasibility and desirability of patterns of metabolism of socio-economic systems by providing a characterization at different levels and scales of: (a) the performance of socio-economic activities (for households, enterprises, economic sectors, national economies, world economy) and (b) ecological constraints (micro, meso, macro) by looking at the interference that the metabolism of matter and energy flows controlled by human activity induces on the expected pattern of metabolism of matter and energy flows associated with the self-organization of natural ecosystems. This paper presents three theoretical concepts behind the analytical approach MuSIASEM: (1) how to represent the endosomatic and exosomatic metabolism of societies using Georgescu-Roegen's flow–fund scheme; (2) how to generate a Sudoku effect across representations of different units of production and consumption defined at different levels; and (3) how to perform an impredicative loop analysis when dealing with changes (evolution) of the characteristics of dynamic budgets of metabolized flows, represented across different scales. Since sustainability deals with “becoming systems”—systems becoming something else in their process of evolution—an analysis of sustainability must adopt analytical tools semantically open in their representation of change. MuSIASEM can do that since it is a “multi-purpose grammar”, which can be used for building a shared perception and representation of this “becoming” when studying sustainability. That is, it entails an agreement on an expected set of relations between “relevant semantic categories” and “pertinent formal categories” across hierarchical levels and across different narratives; for this reason it represents a clear discontinuity from models developed within the paradigm of reductionism to deal with the issue of sustainability.     

CO2 emissions,nuclear energy,renewable energy and economic growth in the US

This study explores the causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, renewable and nuclear energy consumption and real GDP for the US for the period 1960–2007. Using a modified version of the Granger causality test, we found a unidirectional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to CO₂ emissions without feedback but no causality running from renewable energy to CO₂ emissions. The econometric evidence seems to suggest that nuclear energy consumption can help to mitigate CO₂ emissions, but so far, renewable energy consumption has not reached a level where it can make a significant contribution to emissions reduction.     

Energy taxes as a signaling device: An empirical analysis of consumer preferences

This paper presents an econometric study dealing with household demand in Sweden. The main objective is to empirically examine the differences in consumer reaction to the introduction of, or the change, in environmental taxes. Main focus is on environmental taxes as a signaling device. The hypothesis is that the introduction of an environmental tax provides new information about the properties of the directly taxed goods. This in turn may affect consumer preferences for these goods, hence altering the consumption choice. The result from the econometric analysis shows that all goods have negative own-price elasticities, and positive income elasticities. Concerning the signalling effect of environmental taxes the results are somewhat ambiguous. The tax elasticity for energy goods used for heating seems to be significantly higher than the traditional price elasticity, whereas the opposite seems to be the case for energy goods used for transportation.     

Technology and the diffusion of renewable energy

We consider investment in wind, solar photovoltaic, geothermal, and electricity from biomass and waste across 26 OECD countries from 1991 to 2004. Using the PATSTAT database, we obtain a comprehensive list of patents for each of these technologies throughout the world, which we use to assess the impact of technological change on investment in renewable energy capacity. We consider four alternative methods for counting patents, using two possible filters: weighting patents by patent family size and including only patent applications filed in multiple countries. For each patent count, we create knowledge stocks representing the global technological frontier. We find that technological advances do lead to greater investment, but the effect is small. Investments in other carbon-free energy sources, such as hydropower and nuclear power, serve as substitutes for renewable energy. Comparing the effectiveness of our four patent counts, we find that both using only patents filed in multiple countries and weighting by family size improve the fit of the model.     

An economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies

This paper analyzes dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies. The paper has two contributions. The first is to test the robustness of experience in solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and wind energy to the addition of an explicit time trend, which has been done in experience studies for other industries, but not for renewable energy technologies. Estimation is carried out on the assumption that cumulative capacity, industry production, average firm production, and electricity generation affect experience and thus the fall in price. The second contribution is to test the impact of R&D on price reduction. In general cumulative experience is found to be highly statistically significant when estimated alone, and highly statistically insignificant when time is added to the model. The effect of R&D is small and statistically significant in solar photovoltaic technology and statistically insignificant in solar thermal and wind technologies.     

Roles and potentials of renewable energy in less-developed economies: The case of Nepal

Increasing the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix remains one of the major energy policy goals across many economies. This paper assesses the roles and potentials of renewable energy sources in less-developed economies while citing Nepal as an example. Renewable energy has a significant role to play in the electrification of rural areas in developing economies and contribute towards sustainable development. Realizing full potentials of renewable, however, requires addressing both the associated demand-side and supply-side constraints. Innovative subsidies and tax incentives, adequate entrepreneurial support, strengthening institutional arrangement and promoting local community-based organizations such as the cooperatives are the necessary factors in promoting the green technologies in countries like Nepal. International factors such as large scale investment and adequate technology transfer are equally crucial to create a rapid spread and increase affordability of decentralized renewable energy technologies in less-developed economies.     

Supply of renewable energy sources and the cost of EU climate policy

What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to base the calibration directly on available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renewables target are 6% higher than those of a policy without this target. The uncertainty in this estimate is considerable, however, and depends on our assumptions about the availability of low-cost renewable energy: the initial cost level, the steepness of the supply curves and share of renewable energy in the baseline. Within the range we explore, the excess costs vary from zero (when the target is not a binding constraint) to 32% (when the cost progression and the initial cost disadvantage for renewable energy are high and its initial share is low).     

Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach

Previous literature on volatility links between food and energy prices is scarce and mainly based on parametric approaches. This article examines these links by using a semiparametric GARCH model recently proposed by Long et al. (2011), which is essentially a nonparametric correction of the parametric conditional covariance function. The analysis focuses on price links between crude oil, ethanol and sugar prices in Brazil. Results suggest strong volatility links between the prices studied. Parametric approximations of the conditional covariance matrix may lead to misleading results that can be improved upon by using nonparametric techniques.     

General equilibrium, electricity generation technologies and the cost of carbon abatement: A structural sensitivity analysis

Electricity generation is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions, and abatement in this sector is a key determinant of economy-wide regulation costs. The complexity of an integrated representation of economic and electricity systems makes simplifying assumptions appealing, but there is no evidence in the literature on how important the pitfalls may be. The aim of this paper is to provide such evidence, drawing on numerical simulations from a suite of partial and general equilibrium models that share common technological features and are calibrated to the same benchmark data. We report two basic findings. First, general equilibrium inter-sectoral effects of an economy-wide carbon policy are large. It follows that assessing abatement potentials and price changes in the electricity sector with a partial equilibrium Marshallian demand can only provide a crude approximation of the complex demand-side interactions. Second, we provide evidence that widely used top-down representations of electricity technologies produce fuel substitution patterns that are inconsistent with bottom-up cost data. This supports the view that the parametrization of substitution possibilities with highly aggregated production functions is difficult to validate empirically. The overall picture that emerges is one of large quantitative and even qualitative differences, highlighting the role of key structural assumptions in the interpretation of climate policy projections.     

Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship

This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long-run relationship. Indeed, cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy consumption is price-inelastic. Causality tests indicate the presence of a bi-directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth,the case of Lebanon

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for Lebanon, using monthly data for Lebanon covering the period January 1995 to December 2005. Empirical results of the study confirm the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Lebanon but the existence of unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth when examined in a bivariate vector autoregression framework with change in temperature and relative humidity as exogenous variables. Thus, the policy makers in Lebanon should place priority in early stages of reconstruction on building capacity additions and infrastructure development of the electric power sector of Lebanon, as this would propel the economic growth of the country.     

Corrective regulations on renewable energy certificates trading: Pursuing an equity-efficiency trade-off

As a common policy tool for reducing the cost of achieving the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets, Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) trade can also exacerbate distributional inequity in provincial renewable electricity consumption. In this study, two types of corrective regulations –taxation and quotas on REC importing were proposed to pursue the equity-efficient trade-off. The energy, economic, and equity impacts of these corrective regulations were analyzed by applying a multi-region multi-market equilibrium model to China as a case study. The results verified that a free trade REC market can increase distributional inequity, while both import taxation and import quotas can reduce inequity. Compared to the electricity price premium for renewable energy and voluntary green certificate prices, the social cost of implementing these corrective regulations are within the public's willingness-to-pay. Moreover, the cost curve of increasing equity using the two corrective regulations on REC trade were obtained. Import taxation is found to be more cost-efficient, and therefore it should be the prior policy choice for China's central government comparing with import quotas in designing REC trade mechanisms.     

A dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption-growth nexus

This study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 88 countries categorized into four panels based on the World Bank income classification (high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income) within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1990–2006. The Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force for the high, upper middle, and lower middle income country panels. The results from the panel vector error correction models reveal (1) bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run for the high income and upper-middle income country panels; (2) unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth in the short-run, but bidirectional causality in the long-run for the lower-middle income country panel; and (3) unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth for the low income country panel.     

Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.