Assessment of potential for natural gas-based cogeneration in Thailand

Using the results of a comprehensive data analysis of final energy consumption in industry and commercial buildings, the assessment has been made of the potential for gradual implementation of cogeneration plants in these facilities. In doing so, plans for the expansion of the natural gas pipeline distribution network in Thailand are taken into consideration. The sample comprises of 2540 factories and 1651 commercial buildings from which it was found that 817 factories and 966 commercial buildings were suitable for the implementation of natural gas-based cogeneration technologies until 2020. By the implementation of cogeneration in these facilities, it is possible to save 3.2% of the total primary energy consumption in Thailand in 2003.     

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002–2022

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002–2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine ‘viability’, the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector.     

A multi-equation model of energy consumption in Thailand

The paper reports the results of a new generalized price-augmented Working-based (Tran Van Hoa and Reece, 1989) six-equation model of energy consumption in Thailand for the period 1974–1987, and provides improved 2SHI (Tran Van Hoa, 1986) forecasts for six petroleum products for the period 1991–2000. The forecasts are particularly useful in complete fuel-cycle greenhouse-gas emission approaches (e.g. Wilson, 1990) to study the impact of energy consumption on the environment.     

China's ongoing energy efficiency drive: Origins,progress and prospects

In 2004 China's government launched a vigorous programme to reverse the trend of rising national energy intensity and to reduce intensity by 20% over the period 2006–2010. The aim of this paper is to examine this programme in the context of nearly 30 years of measures to enhance energy efficiency in China, and thus to evaluate the likelihood that today's policies will yield improvements over a longer period. The country achieved a sustained decline of energy intensity in the period 1980–2001 but this trend was reversed in 2002. This reversal arose from a shift in the structure of the economy to more energy-intensive industries and from a decline in the rate of technical innovation. The measures taken since 2003 have been directed principally at energy-intensive industries, but have also addressed other sectors of the economy. Though the energy intensity target for the year 2010 may be achieved, greater efforts will be needed to address a number of constraints which include: the reluctance to use economic and financial instruments; the dependency of energy policy on industrial and social policies; the nature of political decision-making and of public administration; a shortage of skills; and social attitudes to energy.     

Energy shocks,crises and the policy process: A review of theory and application

What motivates changes in energy policy? Typically, the process begins with a notable exogenous event, a shock. Often, the shock leads to what is perceived to be a crisis. This review essay surveys theories of crisis policymaking from the social science literature and considers their application to changes in energy policy. Two cases—one from the U.S., the other from Germany—are examined in more detail from the standpoint of the theories discussed. Suggestions are made for improving energy policy analysis in the future.     

Vietnam's energy sector: A review of current energy policies and strategies

Since the introduction of market-oriented economy in 1986, Vietnam has made noticeable socio-economic progress. In this progress, the energy sector has played a vital role. This role is likely to deepen in the years to come as Vietnam strives to achieve even higher levels in economic progress. Such deepening in the role of energy, this paper argues, will heighten concerns about the security of energy supply, and economic, environmental, social and political consequences. In order to address these issues, Vietnam has over the last decade, developed a suite of energy policies. A deeper review of these policies suggests that they are typified by economic-growth orientation, exclusive focus on a single-sector or single issue, and largely neglect the significance of cross-sectoral and cross-thematic issues arising from the interdependencies between energy, economy, and the polity at large. The existing energy policy settings are, therefore, unlikely to be able to provide a satisfactory redress to the challenges noted above. This paper provides an overview of the current energy policies with a view to identify areas where further policy effort is needed in order to facilitate a sustainable development of the Vietnamese energy sector.     

The prospects for coal-to-liquid conversion: A general equilibrium analysis

We investigate the economics of coal-to-liquid (CTL) conversion, a polygeneration technology that produces liquid fuels, chemicals, and electricity by coal gasification and Fischer–Tropsch process. CTL is more expensive than extant technologies when producing the same bundle of output. In addition, the significant carbon footprint of CTL may raise environmental concerns. However, as petroleum prices rise, this technology becomes more attractive especially in coal-abundant countries such as the U.S. and China. Furthermore, including a carbon capture and storage (CCS) option could greatly reduce its CO₂ emissions at an added cost. To assess the prospects for CTL, we incorporate the engineering data for CTL from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. Based on DOE’s plant design that focuses mainly on liquid fuels production, we find that without climate policy, CTL has the potential to account for up to a third of the global liquid fuels supply by 2050 and at that level would supply about 4.6% of global electricity demand. A tight global climate policy, on the other hand, severely limits the potential role of the CTL even with the CCS option, especially if low-carbon biofuels are available. Under such a policy, world demand for petroleum products is greatly reduced, depletion of conventional petroleum is slowed, and so the price increase in crude oil is less, making CTL much less competitive.     

A review of the potential of renewable energy sources for the State of Jammu and Kashmir (India)

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with expected shortages. Many of its current policies and strategies are aimed at the improvement and possible maximization of energy production from the renewable sector. It is also clear that while energy-conservation and energy-efficiency can make an important contribution in the national energy strategy, renewable energies will be essential to the solution and are likely to play an increasingly important role for the growth of grid power, providing energy access, reducing consumption of fossil fuels, and helping India pursue its low carbon progressive pathway. However, most of the states in India, like the northernmost State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), have experienced an energy crisis over a sustained period of time. As India intends to be one of the emerging powers of the 21st century, it has to embark upon with these pressing issues in a more sustainable manner and accordingly initiate various renewable energy projects within these states. This paper will provide a broad-spectrum view about the energy situation within J&K and will highlight the current policies along with future strategies for the optimal utilization of renewable energy resources.     

A review of energy in Rwanda

During the last two decades, Rwanda has experienced an energy crisis mostly due to lack of investment in the energy sector. With the growing of the population and increasing industrialization in urban areas, energy provided by existing hydro and thermal power plants has been increasingly scarce with high energy costs, and energy instability. Furthermore, as wood fuel is the most important source of energy in Rwanda, the enduring dependence on it and fossil fuel consumption as well, will continue to impact on the process of environmental degradation. Rwanda is rich with abundant renewable energy resources such as methane gas in Lake Kivu, solar, biomass, geothermal; and wind energy resource is currently being explored. Recently, the Government has given priority to the extension of its national electrical grid through development of hydro power generation projects, and to rural energy through development of alternative energy projects for rural areas where access to national grid is still difficult. This paper presents a review of existing energy resources and energy applications in Rwanda. Recent developments on renewable energy are also presented.     

Modelling the promotion of biomass use: A case study of Thailand

This study develops a computable general equilibrium model of the Thailand economy which features several energy-specific enhancements. The model is used to simulate a number of potential policies to achieve the Thai government’s biomass-generated electricity targets contained in its 15-year renewable energy development plan. Examples of simulations conducted with the model include increasing biomass-based electricity purchased from small and very small power producers and increasing other agricultural residue use in electricity generation. The results indicate that implementation of all of the biomass-based electricity promotion policies is likely to achieve the short-run target and reduce somewhat the importation of fuels. However, the policy causes a huge increase in prices of biomass. The sugarcane-based sectors are big winners, while the cassava-based sectors are big losers. The losses can, however, be partly mitigated by promoting other agricultural residue use in electricity generation.     

Solar energy in India: Strategies, policies, perspectives and future potential

Renewable energy sources and technologies have potential to provide solutions to the longstanding energy problems being faced by the developing countries like India. Solar energy can be an important part of India's plan not only to add new capacity but also to increase energy security, address environmental concerns, and lead the massive market for renewable energy. Solar thermal electricity (STE) also known as concentrating solar power (CSP) are emerging renewable energy technologies and can be developed as future potential option for electricity generation in India. In this paper, efforts have been made to summarize the availability, current status, strategies, perspectives, promotion policies, major achievements and future potential of solar energy options in India.     

Promoting conservation in buildings: A promising route

More attention would be paid to energy conservation if the property market in the UK reflected the true benefits of energy conservation improvements on the value of buildings. The benefits extend beyond the saving in fuel bills during the investor's period of occupation to a real appreciation in property value as the saving generally continues during the lifetime of the building. When the full extent of this is recognized a free market approach to investing in these measures can be more properly effective and the potential for saving up to £6 billion and for creating up to 150 000 jobs can be realized.     

Full chain energy analysis of fuel ethanol from cane molasses in Thailand

An analysis of energy performance and supply potential was performed to evaluate molasses utilization for fuel ethanol in Thailand. The Thai government recently has set up a production target of 1.925 million litres a day of sugar-based ethanol. The molasses-based ethanol (MoE) system involves three main segments: sugar cane cultivation, molasses generation, and ethanol conversion. Negative net energy value found for MoE is a consequence of not utilizing system co-products (e.g. stillage and cane trash) for energy. Taking into account only fossil fuel or petroleum inputs in the production cycle, the energy analysis provides results in favour of ethanol. A positive net energy of 5.95 MJ/L which corresponds to 39% energy gain shows that MoE is efficient as far as its potential to replace fossil fuels is concerned. Another encouraging result is that each MJ of petroleum inputs can produce 6.12 MJ of ethanol fuel. Regarding supply potential, if only the surplus molasses is utilized for ethanol, a shift of 8–10% sugar cane produce to fuel ethanol from its current use in sugar industry could be a probable solution.     

Empirical determinants of renewable energy deployment: A systematic literature review

A large share of greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to the energy sector. Renewable energy (RE) appears to be a mean to decarbonize economies. To fight global warming, which might have substantial impacts on ecosystems and economies, it is essential to understand the empirical determinants of RE deployment for public policy guidance and to foster future research. This paper aims to review the growing, though limited, body of literature that has emerged in the late 2000s to study the quantitative determinants of RE development at a country level. Results show that there is little consensus on the influence of the economic, environmental, and energy-related determinants predominantly studied. The other main determinants considered are regulatory, political, and demographic. Results are often tempered by the fact that authors use diverse measures of RE deployment and have a variety of frameworks. This paper ends with several recommendations to improve the comparability of future papers to enhance their potential to make credible public policy recommendations. More specifically, the recommendations concern the choice of a RE deployment indicator, the determinants considered for further exploration, and the methodologies adopted.     

Financing energy SMEs in Ghana and Senegal: Outcomes,barriers and prospects

The article presents the findings of primary research carried out in Ghana and Senegal, which revisited the main assumptions behind the African Rural Energy Enterprise Development (AREED) initiative (2002–2012), and other donor-backed programmes, designed to promote small and medium-sized energy enterprises (energy SMEs). These assumptions were (1) that the lack of affordable local financing presented the most significant barrier to setting up and expanding energy SMEs, and (2) that these barriers would be overcome by a ‘demonstration effect’ whereby successful businesses, supported by donor-backed programmes, could in turn influence the commercial financial sector to invest in energy SMEs, thus triggering a virtuous circle of growth and profitability.     

Liquid hydrogen,methylcyclohexane, and ammonia as potential hydrogen storage: Comparison review

Among the several candidates of hydrogen (H₂) storage, liquid H₂, methylcyclohexane (MCH), and ammonia (NH₃) are considered as potential hydrogen carriers, especially in Japan, in terms of their characteristics, application feasibility, and economic performance. In addition, as the main mover in the introduction of H₂, Japan has focused on the storage of H₂, which can be categorized into these three methods. Each of them has advantages and disadvantages compared to the other. Liquid H₂ faces challenges in the huge energy consumption that occurs during liquefaction and in the loss of H₂ through boil-off during storage. MCH has its main obstacles in requiring a large amount of energy in dehydrogenation. Finally, NH₃ encounters high energy demand in both synthesis and decomposition (if required). In terms of energy efficiency, NH₃ is predicted to have the highest total energy efficiency, followed by liquid H₂, and MCH. In addition, from the calculation of cost, NH₃ with direct utilization (without decomposition) is considered to have the highest feasibility for massive adoption, as it shows the lowest cost (20–22 JPY·Nm³-H₂ in 2050), which is close to the government target of H₂ cost (20 JPY·Nm³-H₂ in 2050). However, in the case that highly pure H₂ (such as for fuel cell) is needed, liquid H₂ looks to be promising (24–25 JPY·Nm³-H₂ in 2050), compared with MCH and NH₃ with decomposition and purification.     

Structural change and Thailand energy demand

This paper examines the impact of changes in the structure of the economy, radical changes in economic policy and oil price shocks on the relation between Thailand energy demand and its macroeconomic determinants. The impact of these structural changes on the relationship between energy consumption, income, energy prices and structural variation is examined through unit root and cointegration tests, the cointegration relationship and the error correction model. Methods which endogenize the location of an a priori unknown break point are employed to assess the impact of structural change. In general, the recognition of structural change has lead to some unique insights. In particular, the results of some of the conventional unit root and cointegration tests are reversed once structural changes are recognized. Estimates from the cointegrating regression imply long-run income, price, and structural variation elasticities of 0.568, −0.600 and 1.046, respectively. In comparison, estimates from the error correction model suggest a higher short-run income elasticity (0.788) but lower short-run price and structural variation elasticities (−0.522 and 0.491, respectively). One of the important implications of the estimates pertains to the low price elasticity for aggregate energy demand which implies that the over-pricing of energy as a policy instrument is not likely to be very influential for restraining future energy demand. Additionally, taxes on energy prices are unlikely to achieve government goals for energy conservation and environmental improvement, although they may well be efficient for raising revenue. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hard coal subsidies: A never-ending story?

In Germany, hard coal has been subsidized for almost half a century. Despite the declining significance of hard coal production for the domestic labor market, the subsidies have continued to increase until the middle of the last decade, reaching a peak at €6.7 billion in 1996. While these subsidies have been continually shrinking since then, settling at €2.7 billion in 2005, it is very likely that hard coal support will be extended in Germany well into the next decade and even beyond. This article questions the main arguments raised by the proponents of hard coal subsidization in Germany and other EU countries. Most importantly, in addition to the drain these subsidies impose on public budgets, substantial opportunity costs are implied, leading funds away from alternative, more beneficial public investments. From a social welfare perspective, we, therefore, recommend the rapid abolition of these subsidies not only in Germany, where in real terms the accumulated amount of subsidies has now far exceeded €165 billion, but also all across Europe.     

High gas dependence for power generation in Thailand: The vulnerability analysis

Thailand uses 74% of its natural gas supply for power generation and 70% of its power comes from gas-based technology. High dependence on natural gas in power generation raises concerns about security of electricity supply that could affect competitiveness of Thai manufacturing and other industries at the global level. The effect of fuel dependence on security of electricity supply has received less emphasis in the literature. Given this gap, this research examines the economic impact of high dependence on natural gas for power generation in Thailand by analyzing the effect of changes in fuel prices (including fuel oil and natural gas) on electricity tariff in Thailand. At the same time, the research quantifies the vulnerability of the Thai economy due to high gas dependence in power generation. Our research shows that for every 10% change in natural gas price, electricity tariff in Thailand would change by 3.5%. In addition, we found that the gas bill for power generation consumed between 1.94% and 3.05% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2000 and 2004 and in terms of GDP share per unit of energy, gas dependence in power generation is almost similar to that of crude oil import dependence. We also found that the basic metal industry, being an electricity intensive industry, is the most affected industry. Additionally, we find that volatility of gas price is the main factor behind the vulnerability concern. The research accordingly simulates two mitigation options of the problem, namely reducing gas dependence and increasing efficiency of gas-fired power plants, where the results show that these methods can reduce the vulnerability of the country from high gas dependence in power generation.     

Electricity capacity expansion in Thailand: An analysis of gas dependence and fuel import reliance

Electricity generation in Thailand is highly dependant on natural gas. Recent research has revealed that the Thai economy would become more vulnerable from high gas dependence in the power sector. This paper aims to assess the economic impact of gas dependence in power generation in the coming decades. To fulfil this objective, two scenarios of electricity capacity planning were developed and the results were analysed to understand the changes in gas dependence and the effects on import reliance. It is found that from 2011 to 2025, the average cost of natural gas for power generation will account for 2.41% of gross domestic product (GDP) while high oil price in international energy markets would push this cost to 2.97% of GDP. In addition, reliance on fuel imports for power generation, particularly natural gas and coal, is going to be another crucial concern to the security of energy supply as the costs of these imports during the planning horizon will increase significantly at an average rate of 6.78% per year.