The development of the German energy market until 2030—A critical survey of selected scenarios

Many scenarios have been generated in the last years analysing the international energy market. The variety of these scenarios is manifold, as they are generated by different institutions using different methodological approaches and different framework assumptions. However, these scenarios can roughly be classified into three main groups: “moderate”, “climate protection” and “resource scarcity and high fossil fuel prices”. Analysing the German energy market makes a fourth scenario group necessary, which considers the possible revision of the decided nuclear energy phase out. Most of the existing scenarios developed by different institutions can be allocated into one of these groups. A representative scenario for each group has been selected to illustrate the development of the energy sector until 2030. Contrary to the worldwide primary energy demand (PED), the German PED decreases in each scenario, even though the drop differs strongly throughout the scenarios. On the other hand the structure of the PED in 2030 varies strongly for each scenario, especially regarding the share of fossil energy sources. However, a common robust result can be observed throughout all scenarios, namely the high increase in the share of the renewable energy resources, although the scenario generation processes are not always robust.     

Towards sustainable energy systems: The related role of hydrogen

The role of hydrogen in long run sustainable energy scenarios for the world and for the case of Germany is analysed, based on key criteria for sustainable energy systems. The possible range of hydrogen within long-term energy scenarios is broad and uncertain depending on assumptions on used primary energy, technology mix, rate of energy efficiency increase and costs degression (“learning effects”). In any case, sustainable energy strategies must give energy efficiency highest priority combined with an accelerated market introduction of renewables (“integrated strategy”). Under these conditions hydrogen will play a major role not before 2030 using natural gas as a bridge to renewable hydrogen. Against the background of an ambitious CO₂-reduction goal which is under discussion in Germany the potentials for efficiency increase, the necessary structural change of the power plant system (corresponding to the decision to phase out nuclear energy, the transformation of the transportation sector and the market implementation order of renewable energies (“following efficiency guidelines first for electricity generation purposes, than for heat generation and than for the transportation sector”)) are analysed based on latest sustainable energy scenarios.     

Evaluating fuel ethanol feedstocks from energy policy perspectives: A comparative energy assessment of corn and corn stover

Concerns surrounding the continued, un-checked use of petroleum-based fuels in the transportation sector, the search for more sustainable, renewable alternatives, and the constraints of the existing supply infrastructure in the United States have placed a spotlight on biomass-derived fuels. The central question of the ethanol debate has changed from “Should we make ethanol?” to “From what should we make ethanol?” emphasizing the importance of understanding the differences between specific biomass supply systems for fuel ethanol. When presented with numerous options, the priorities of an individual decision maker will define which feedstock alternative is the most appropriate choice for development from their perspective. This paper demonstrates how energy data can be successfully used to quantify assessment metrics beyond a standard net energy value calculation, thus quantifying the relative “value” of ethanol supply systems. This value is defined based on decision-maker priorities that were adopted from national energy policy priorities: increased national energy security and increased conservation of energy resources. Nine energy assessment metrics that quantify detailed system energy data are calculated and a straightforward comparative assessment is performed between corn and corn stover feedstocks produced under the same farm scenario. Corn stover is shown to be more compatible with the national energy policy priorities and it is recommended that additional research be performed on utilizing this feedstock from the corn farm.     

Energy supply planning in Iran by using fuzzy linear programming approach (regarding uncertainties of investment costs)

For many years, energy models have been used in developed or developing countries to satisfy different needs in energy planning. One of major problems against energy planning and consequently energy models is uncertainty, spread in different economic, political and legal dimensions of energy planning. Confronting uncertainty, energy planners have often used two well-known strategies. The first strategy is stochastic programming, in which energy system planners define different scenarios and apply an explicit probability of occurrence to each scenario. The second strategy is Minimax Regret strategy that minimizes regrets of different decisions made in energy planning. Although these strategies have been used extensively, they could not flexibly and effectively deal with the uncertainties caused by fuzziness. “Fuzzy Linear Programming (FLP)” is a strategy that can take fuzziness into account. This paper tries to demonstrate the method of application of FLP for optimization of supply energy system in Iran, as a case study. The used FLP model comprises fuzzy coefficients for investment costs. Following the mentioned purpose, it is realized that FLP is an easy and flexible approach that can be a serious competitor for other confronting uncertainties approaches, i.e. stochastic and Minimax Regret strategies.     

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.     

Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People’s Democratic Republic

In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People’s Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: “residential demand”, “income generation” and “public services”. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.     

The assessment of renewable energy planning on CO2 abatement in South Korea

Sources of renewable energies (for example landfill gas, wind, solar energy) are environmentally friendly and electric power generation in South Korea has concentrated on new and renewable energy technologies. The purpose of this paper is to study the economic and environmental influence of renewable energies on existing electricity generation market of South Korea with energy-economic model called ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system’ and the associated ‘Technology and Environmental Database’. Business as usual scenario was based on energy supply planning with existing power plant. And then, the alternative scenarios were considered, namely the base case with existing electricity facilities, the installation plan of different renewable energy facilities, technological improvement and process dispatch rule according to merit order change. In each alternative scenario analysis, alternation trend of existing electricity generation facilities is analyzed and the cost of installed renewable energy plants and CO₂ reduction potential was assessed quantitatively.     

The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other “green” products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Hydrogen economy in Taiwan and biohydrogen

This study analyzed how production technology advances and how economic structure reformation affects transition to a hydrogen economy in Taiwan before 2030. A model, called “Taiwan general equilibrium model-energy, for hydrogen (TAIGEM-EH)”, was the forecast tool used to consider steam reforming of natural gas, the biodegradation of biomass and water electrolysis using nuclear power or renewable energies of hydrogen production industries. Owing to increase in the prices of oil and concern for global warming effects, hydrogen will have a 10.3% share in 2030 when demands for hydrogen production could be met if strong technological progress in hydrogen production were made. With reformed economic structure and strong support to progress in production technologies, hydrogen's share can reach 22.1% in 2030 and become the dominating energy source from then onwards. In the four scenarios studied, including developing country with three levels of effort and developed country with strong effort, the biohydrogen production industry can become a main supplier of hydrogen in the market if its technological progress can be competitive to other _CO2${\mathrm{CO}}_2$-free alternatives.     

Who formulates renewable-energy policy? A Swedish example

A broad participation by stakeholders and an extensive reliance on expert advice are often seen as preconditions for a legitimate and successfully implemented renewable energy policy. However, we have lacked systematic data for testing this argument. This article’s contribution is to examine the actors who take part in the making of Swedish energy policy with the help of data on the composition of various committees of inquiry over the last twenty years (1988–2009). Swedish renewable energy policy is often characterised with words like “pioneering” and “forerunner”, suggesting that the policy-making process in this area engages many different experts and stakeholders. Our data give only some support to this argument. Results point to a noteworthy predominance of politicians, civil servants, and representatives of state agencies within the policy-process. Producers of uranium and fossils based energy have been engaged more often than producers of renewable energy. Experts have played a prominent role, but this is mostly due to the participation of expert bureaucrats rather than of scientists. The study suggests that a better understanding of the making of energy policy, both in Sweden and elsewhere, requires greater attention to the networks and role of various state employees.     

Insight into the Greek electric sector and energy planning with mature technologies and fuel diversification

The numerous available options for the development of the Greek electric sector in combination with the various techno-economic and political constraints make energy planning rather complex. Furthermore, as full auctioning of CO₂ allowances shall be the rule from 2013 onwards for the electric sector following free allocation, even more uncertainties emerge. This work aims at investigating the main characteristics of the Greek electric system taking into consideration the various allowance allocation schemes, evaluates fundamental energy scenarios and ultimately performs energy planning. The reliability of the algorithm utilised is assessed by predicting successfully key figure energy results for years 2004–2008. Main parameter under investigation in the study is the cost of CO₂ emissions allowances, while expansion scenarios are evaluated according to a newly developed set of indices standing for feasibility, environmental performance, cost effectiveness and energy safety. Many expansion scenarios examined were proved unrealistic as led to extremely high utilization of imported fuels for electricity production, while others proved inefficient on environmental or economic basis. Finally, it was proved that if a “conservative” energy planning is adopted, emissions reduction in 2020 can reach 6.3% over 2005.     

Ranking and selection of power expansion alternatives for multiple objectives under uncertainty

Strategic planning in the electricity supply industry is a complex task due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives of the decision makers, as well as the inherent technical and valuation uncertainties involved. As such, a transparent decision support framework is needed, for guiding information management throughout the decision process, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This paper outlines a methodology for the ranking of power expansion alternatives given multiple objectives and uncertainty, and demonstrates this using the South African electricity supply industry. This methodology uses a value function MCDA approach that is augmented with scenario analysis to yield information relating to both the relative performance and credibility of power expansion alternatives. A portfolio of preferred alternatives is then identified based on performance and confidence criteria. Finally a more detailed analysis of the reduced solution set examines short-term technology investment details alongside attribute performance information, so as to gain insight into the decision problem and relate it back to real life actions.     

Advanced mechanisms for the promotion of renewable energy—Models for the future evolution of the German Renewable Energy Act

The German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) has been very successful in promoting the deployment of renewable electricity technologies in Germany. The increasing share of EEG power in the generation portfolio, increasing amounts of fluctuating power generation, and the growing European integration of power markets governed by competition calls for a re-design of the EEG. In particular, a more efficient system integration and commercial integration of the EEG power is needed to, e.g. better matching feed-in to demand and avoiding stress on electricity grids. This article describes three different options to improve the EEG by providing appropriate incentives and more flexibility to the promotion mechanism and the quantitative compensation scheme without jeopardising the fast deployment of renewable energy technologies. In the “Retailer Model”, it becomes the responsibility of the end-use retailers to adapt the EEG power to the actual demand of their respective customers. The “Market Mediator Model” establishes an independent market mediator responsible to market the renewable electricity. This model is the primary choice when new market entrants are regarded as crucial for the better integration of renewable energy and enhanced competition. The “Optional Bonus Model” relies more on functioning markets since power plant operators can alternatively choose to market the generated electricity themselves with a premium on top of the market price instead of a fixed price.     

Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by “peak oil” adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this “peak fossil-fuel” limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 °C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.     

Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China

China has implemented a series of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for over 30 appliances, voluntary energy efficiency label for 40 products, and a mandatory energy information label that covers 19 products to date. However, the impact of these programs and their savings potential has not been evaluated on a consistent basis. This paper uses modeling to estimate the energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction potential of the appliances standard and labeling program for products for which standards are currently in place, under development or those proposed for development in 2010 under three scenarios that differ in the pace and stringency of MEPS development. In addition to a baseline “frozen efficiency” scenario at 2009 MEPS level, the “Continued Improvement Scenario” (CIS) reflects the likely pace of post-2009 MEPS revisions, and the likely improvement at each revision step. The “Best Practice Scenario” (BPS) examined the potential of an achievement of international best-practice efficiency in broad commercial use today in 2014. This paper concludes that under “CIS”, cumulative electricity consumption could be reduced by 9503 TWh, and annual CO₂ emissions of energy used for all 37 products would be 16% lower than in the frozen efficiency scenario. Under a “BPS” scenario for a subset of products, cumulative electricity savings would be 5450 TWh and annual CO₂ emissions reduction of energy used for 11 appliances would be 35% lower.     

Multi-criteria decision analysis and cost–benefit analysis of alternative scenarios for the power generation sector in Greece

This paper examines four mutually exclusive scenarios for the expansion of the Greek electricity system developed by official authorities and representing alternative views on meeting electricity demand. The aim is to encompass all positive and negative side-effects characterizing the electricity generation technologies assumed to participate in each scenario and emphasis is given to the particular role of renewable energy sources which represent a major differentiating factor between them. The calculation of economic, technical and environmental performances of the examined scenarios for the year 2010 shows that electricity planning is a complicated task since improvements in one policy target are accompanied by losses in others. In order to resolve this conflict, the scenarios are comparatively evaluated with two decision support techniques, multicriteria decision analysis and cost–benefit analysis, which are capable of broadening the strict boundaries of a financial analysis while avoiding intuitive solutions that are often applied in practice. Following the two completely different evaluation approaches, it is confirmed that the scenario assuming the highest penetration of renewable energy sources is the best compromise configuration for the Greek power generation sector.     

Developing a framework for renewable technology portfolio selection: A case study at a R&D center

The rapid development of technologies, their increasing complexity and variety, long lead times of R&D and market dynamics have made the task of technology selection difficult. Considering high level of competitiveness, organizations need to strategically allocate their limited resources to the best subset of possible projects.Today, the increased consumption of energy in modern industrial societies, in addition to the risk of quick exhaustion of fossil resources, has brought about irreversible and threatening environmental changes faced by the world. Dealing with these challenges, decision makers focus on the development of renewable energy technology viewed both as a process of diversification of energy sources and as a creation of an alternative energy option that will help curb down global climate change.To successfully tackle investment projects in renewable energy, it is essential to use models facilitating decision making process and guarantying the greatest possible value for organizations. Technology portfolio managers have traditionally used consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Delphi but these tools are limited in their ability to fully quantify the impact of technology portfolio selection on the overall aspects of the system.This paper presents the results of developing a mathematical model for renewable technology portfolio selection at an oil industry R&D center maximizing support of the organization's strategy and values. The model balances the cost and benefit of the entire portfolio. It is also flexible and changes can be applied very easily.     

IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008

The IEA published “Energy Technology Perspectives” (ETP) in June 2008. That document reports on IEA scenarios for baseline and low-CO₂ alternative scenarios to 2050, across the energy economy. The study included creating scenarios for transport, using the IEA Mobility Model (MoMo). This paper reports on the transport-related ETP scenarios and describes the model used in the analysis. According to the ETP Baseline scenario, world transport energy use and CO₂ emissions will more than double by 2050. In the most challenging scenario, called “BLUE”, transport emissions are reduced by 70% in 2050 compared to their baseline level in that year (and about 25% below their 2005 levels). There are several versions of the BLUE scenario, but all involve: a 50% or greater improvement in LDV efficiency, 30–50% improvement in efficiency of other modes (e.g. trucks, ships and aircraft), 25% substitution of liquid fossil fuels by biofuels, and considerable penetration of electric and/or fuel-cell vehicles. In the second half of this paper, an overview of the MoMo model is provided. Details on the complete analysis are contained in the ETP 2008 document, available at www.iea.org. Details of the LDV fuel economy analysis are contained in a separate paper in this collection.     

The analysis of renewable energy policies for the Taiwan Penghu island administrative region

Taiwan dependents on thermal power for 70% of its total energy supply. The high consumption of fossil fuel increases the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and consequently causes global warming and climate change. Thus, Taiwan has proposed new regulations and measures such as “The Framework for Sustainable Energy Policy - An Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan“and” The Master Plan of Energy Conservation and Carbon Mitigation” for domestic carbon reduction. These regulations indicate that the urgency to promote renewable energy to the public to achieve sizable reduction of CO₂ emissions. The objective of this paper is to develop a cost-benefit evaluation methodology based on system dynamics (SD) modelling for any given administrative region to evaluate renewable energy policies. This research develops specific SD models with causal feedback loops to assess the effectiveness of policies and the corresponding benefits for solar energy carbon reduction. The solar energy applications on Taiwan's largest island, Penghu, are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The SD approaches and the evaluation of the results serve as a reference to promote solar energy in the other regions with reduced costs and reliability.     

Planning an energy-conserving policy for Taiwan based on international examples of success

Taiwan lacks indigenous energy resources and imports 99% of its energy supply. This heavy energy-dependence represents a hidden threat for Taiwan's energy security and economic development. The most effective solution thus is to adopt an energy-conservation policy, similar to those successfully implemented in certain highly developed countries, such as the UK, the USA, Japan, and Germany. From the successful experiences of these countries, this study proposes a general mechanism of increasing energy efficiency by 2% annually, together with an executive master plan, followed by a scenario breakdown for energy-conserving policy in Taiwan. The feasibility of these proposals has been confirmed by the finding that their achievements in terms of energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction conform to the goals of the “Taiwan National Energy Conference 2005”.