Space and time: Wind in an investment planning model

Investment planning models inform investment decisions and government policies. Current models do not capture the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, restricting the applicability of the models for high penetrations of renewables. We provide a methodology to capture spatial variation in wind output in combination with transmission constraints. The representation of wind distributions using stochastic approaches or using extensive historic data sets exceeds computational constraints for real world application. Hence we restrict the amount of input data, and use bootstrapping to illustrate the robustness of the results. For the UK power system we model wind deployment and the value of transmission capacity.     

Internalizing externalities into capacity expansion planning: The case of electricity in Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of including external costs such as environmental and health damages from power production on power generation expansion planning in Vietnam. Using the MARKAL model and covering a 20-year period to 2025, the study shows that there are substantial changes in the generation structure in favor of renewable energy technologies and other low emitting technologies. These changes lead to a reduction in fossil fuel requirements, and consequently, a reduction of CO₂, NO_x, SO₂, and PM emissions which could be expected to also reduce the associated environmental and human health impacts. The avoided external costs would be equivalent to 4.4 US cent/kWh. However, these gains are not free as the additional electricity production cost would be around 2.6 US cent/kWh higher if the switch to more expensive, but lower emitting technologies were made. The net benefit of internalizing these externalities is thus around 1.8 US cent/kWh.     

Analysis of the impact of electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan—Feasibility study for energy network in Northeast Asia

This study analyzes the impact of an electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan on their energy systems. Both countries seriously consider energy security as the most important policy issue because of a lack of domestic energy resources. In addition, public concern for the environment is recently rising up in response to the global warming. Electricity grid interconnection has strong potential to cope with such complicated problems cost-effectively. We have developed the interconnection model, which includes the electricity grid interconnection between the electricity sectors of Korea and Japan, considering both technological and economic efficiency. The result of the study reveals the significant cost-effectiveness of the interconnection, in particular, under stringent condition such as nuclear phase-out in Japan and CO₂ emission target in Korea and Japan. In the case that Japan's nuclear power plants will be phased out, the interconnection attains further cost reduction of constructing substitutive thermal power plants. On the other hand, when Korea and Japan set a joint CO₂ emission target, it achieves the emission target more efficiently than they reduce the emission individually.     

Successful renewable energy development in a competitive electricity market: A Texas case study

The development of renewable energy in markets with competition at wholesale and retail levels poses challenges not present in areas served by vertically-integrated utilities. The intermittent nature of some renewable energy resources impact reliability, operations, and market prices, in turn affecting all market participants. Meeting renewable energy goals may require coordination among many market players.     

The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: Dynamic growth model approach

The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power.     

Development of a scalable infrastructure model for planning electricity generation and CO2 mitigation strategies under mandated reduction of GHG emission

In a power-generation system, power plants as major CO₂ sources may be widely separated, so they must be connected into a comprehensive network to manage both electricity and CO₂ simultaneously and efficiently. In this study, a scalable infrastructure model is developed for planning electricity generation and CO₂ mitigation (EGCM) strategies under the mandated reduction of GHG emission. The EGCM infrastructure model is applied to case studies of Korean energy and CO₂ scenarios in 2020; these cases consider combinations of prices of carbon credit and total electricity demand fulfilled by combustion power plants. The results highlight the importance of systematic planning for a scalable infrastructure by examining the sensitivity of the EGCM infrastructure. The results will be useful both to help decision makers establish a power-generation plan, and to identify appropriate strategies to respond to climate change.     

Implications of private sector participation in power generation—a case study from India

India suffers from widespread shortages of electricity supply. These shortages, among others, are detrimental to the economic growth. The prospects for the next decade do not seem to be much brighter. Efforts in expanding generation capacity by the state-owned electric utilities are hampered by severe resource constraints. Against this backdrop, to mobilize additional resources to help bridge the gap in demand and supply, the Government of India formulated a policy in 1991 with the objective to encourage greater investment by private enterprises in the electricity sector. To study the implications of such an initiative on various stakeholders, viz., public utilities, consumers and private sector, the present paper tries to analyse issues like planned rationing, guarantees to private sector, backing down of existing capacity. Using the state of Karnataka (in Southern India) as a case study, the paper develops multiple scenarios using an integrated mixed integer-programming model. The results show the advantage of marginal non-supply (rationing) of electricity in terms of achieving overall effective supply demand matching as well as providing economic benefits to the state that could be generated through cost savings. The results also show the negative impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector in terms of the opportunity costs of reduced utilization of both the existing and the new public capacity. The estimated generation losses and the associated economic impacts of backing down of existing and new public capacity on account of guarantees are found to be significantly high. For 2011–12, depending on the type of scenarios, the estimated generation and economic losses are likely to be in the range of 3200–10,000 GWh and Rs. 4200–13,600 million respectively. The impact of these losses on the consumers could be in terms of significant increase in energy bills (in the range of 19–40% for different scenarios) due to rise in tariffs.     

Electricity market auction settings in a future Danish electricity system with a high penetration of renewable energy sources - A comparison of marginal pricing and pay-as-bid

The long-term goal for Danish energy policy is to be free of fossil fuels through the increasing use of renewable energy sources (RES) including fluctuating renewable electricity (FRE).The Danish electricity market is part of the Nordic power exchange, which uses a Marginal Price auction system (MPS) for the day-ahead auctions. The market price is thus equal to the bidding price of the most expensive auction winning unit. In the MPS, the FRE bid at prices of or close to zero resulting in reduced market prices during hours of FRE production. In turn, this reduces the FRE sources’ income from market sales. As more FRE is implemented, this effect will only become greater, thereby reducing the income for FRE producers.Other auction settings could potentially help to reduce this problem. One candidate is the pay-as-bid auction setting (PAB), where winning units are paid their own bidding price.This article investigates the two auction settings, to find whether a change of auction setting would provide a more suitable frame for large shares of FRE. This has been done with two energy system scenarios with different shares of FRE.From the analysis, it is found that MPS is generally better for the FRE sources. The result is, however, very sensitive to the base assumptions used for the calculations.     

Impact on power planning due to demand-side management (DSM) in commercial and government sectors with rebound effect—A case study of central grid of Oman

This paper presents the results of a study that estimated the DSM energy saving and load management potential in commercial and government/institutional sectors in Oman (central grid area) and evaluated its impact on generation capacity and energy savings. The end-use (lighting and air-conditioning) energy consumption data have been collected in two major segments of the commercial sector for simplicity and to save time and money. Another unique aspect of the study is the inclusion of the energy savings, in transmission and distribution (T&D) losses that are estimated by using generation expansion planning approach. The study has found that DSM is financially beneficial from customers’ point of view as the discounted payback period of investment in efficient lighting and air-conditioning is between 4 and 12 years of the surveyed sample. From the utility point of view the capacity saving at the horizon year is between 372 and 596 MW and the overall energy saving for the whole planning horizon is about 29–44 TWh. The total avoided cost in generation and capacity saving is somewhere between 416 and 597 million dollars.     

The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a Gaming and Tourism Center: The case of Macao SAR, the People’s Republic of China

A number of Asian cities decided to establish gaming and resort facilities in order to capitalize on the growing number of gamblers and their family members in Asia. In doing so, they expect to sustain economic growth but, on the other hand, will consume a considerable amount of energy. Nevertheless, the causal relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in this type of service-oriented territories has never been investigated. Using the historical data obtained from the Government of Macao SAR, we found that electricity consumption and economic growth in terms of gross domestic product are co-integrated for the period of 1999 Quarter 1-2008 Quarter 4. Moreover, vector error correction (VEC) models indicated a lack of short-run relationships but showed that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and gross domestic product. The accuracy of VEC models was assessed by using the mean squared error and the mean absolute error. The error analysis shows that VEC models reproduced time series of gross domestic product and electricity consumption in difference form accurately.     

An hourly solar radiation model under actual weather and terrain conditions: A case study in Heihe river basin

This paper describes an hourly incident solar radiation model, which could be used to estimate long-term global radiation, direct radiation and diffuse radiation with high spatial and temporal resolution under its de facto weather and terrain in large regions. The model is based on parameterized radiation transfer theory, and has referred to some data from the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) and some information about topography. The model was successfully used to calculate hourly instantaneous solar irradiance by a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km in Alberts projection, in the Heihe river basin with a drainage area of 130,000 km² in 2002. Now that only observed global radiation data at three automatic stations is available in Heihe river basin, global radiation at the three stations is used to validate the model. The three automatic stations are deployed in the mountain (Xishui), in the oasis (Linze), and in the desert area (Erjinaqi), respectively. The measured hourly instantaneous global radiation data do not comply with the calculated series at Xishui, with a determination coefficient R²=0.71$R^2=0.71$. While at Linze and Erjinaqi stations, the determination coefficients are 0.90 and 0.91, respectively. The main reason why large errors are observed at Xishui station is that total cloud percent data from the NCEP/NCAR do not have a high spatial and temporal resolution. Also the spatial resolution of the observed data is not consistent with the calculated values. According to the model numerical test, topography is an important factor affecting model results on uneven land surfaces. Besides, in arid desert regions with even land surfaces, the 6 hourly model results agree with NCEP/NCAR global radiation data and measured data well.     

An energy-based evaluation of the matching possibilities of very large photovoltaic plants to the electricity grid: Israel as a case study

We present the results of a number of PV-grid matching simulations performed using hourly generation data from the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) for the year 2006, together with corresponding meteorological data from Sede Boqer in the Negev Desert. The principal results of this investigation are: (1) the effective flexibility factor (ff) of the IEC grid was close to ff=0.65, but with a different plant operating strategy, ff could have been considerably higher; (2) for ff=0.65, the largest no-dump PV system could have provided only 2.7% of the annual demand, but for higher flexibilities – up to ff=1 – the percentage penetration could be as high as 17.4%; (3) considerable improvement in penetration can result by relaxing the “no-dump” criterion initially imposed on the PV system; (4) using the IEC's existing plant types, additional penetration can be expected by re-scheduling part of the base-load generating capacity to anticipate expected solar input; (5) for a radically decreased grid flexibility – that might result from IEC decisions about future generator purchases – the required employment of massive amounts of storage would render the potential contribution of PV to be insignificant.     

Market power in a coal-based power generation sector: The case of Poland

The paper presents an analysis of market power in the Polish power sector. The study is carried out for the structure that was established by the last consolidation undertaken by the government in 2007, using a game theoretic model of the power generation market (the PolMark model). The model is run under five scenarios and eight cases. The scenarios distinguish between assumptions on strategic behaviour, whereas the cases distinguish assumptions on coal prices. The following measures are discussed in this study: electricity prices, production volumes, consumer and producer surpluses, dead weight welfare loss, CO₂, SO₂, NO_x emissions and fuel supplies to power producers. The results confirm that the potential to exert market power in the Polish power generation sector may influence significantly electricity prices and production volumes. The analysis indicates that under the competitive scenario the average wholesale electricity price would be approximately 14.7% lower and the production would be 6.7% higher when compared to the reference scenario. Furthermore, apart from surplus transfer between producers and consumers, the dead weight loss was estimated at the level of 123.6 M€. This value reflects the net social loss resulting from uncompetitive market equilibrium.     

Compound microgrid installation operation planning of a PEFC and photovoltaics with prediction of electricity production using GA and numerical weather information

A fuel cell microgrid with photovoltaics effectively reduces greenhouse gas emission. A system operation optimization technique with photovoltaics and unstable power is important. In this paper, the optimal operation algorithm of this compound microgrid is developed using numerical weather information (NWI) that is freely available. A GA (genetic algorithm) was developed to minimize system fuel consumption. Furthermore, the relation between the NWI error characteristics and the operation results of the system was clarified. As a result, the optimized operation algorithm using NWI reduced the energy cost of the system.     

Environmental and utility planning implications of electricity loss reduction in a developing country: a comparative study of technical options

This paper discusses the environmental and utility planning implications of load (i.e. ‘variable’) and non-load (i.e. ‘core’) loss reduction options in the case of a mixed hydro-thermal power system from a long-term electricity generation expansion planning perspective. A key finding of the study is that a reduction of electricity losses in transmission and distribution need not always reduce emissions of air pollutants; and that neither loss reduction option is consistently superior over time from the environmental perspective. For a given level of loss reduction, long-run average cost of electricity generation with the variable loss reduction option generation was found to be less than that with the core loss reduction option. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing the cost of electricity sourced from a fuel cell-based renewable energy system and the national grid to electrify a rural health centre in India: A case study

The provision of electricity is a key component in the development of a country’s health care facilities. This study was performed to estimate the cost of powering a rural primary health centre, in India with a decentralised renewable energy system. The costs were also compared between a decentralised renewable energy system and providing electricity from a grid source. The critical or break-even distance that makes electricity from a decentralised renewable energy system cost effective over that from a grid source was determined. The decentralised renewable energy system considered was a hydrogen-based fuel cell for the generation of electricity with hydrogen extracted from biogas obtained from biomass. The software program HOMER was used for the simulation analysis. The cost of a decentralised renewable energy system was found to be between seven times and less than half that of conventional energy, and the break-even distance was between 43.8 km to a negative distance for varying ranges of input component costs. The results of this study indicated that the use of a decentralised renewable energy system to power a rural primary health centre is both feasible and cost effective, and may even be cheaper than using electricity from a grid source.     

Grappling with a half-hearted policy: The case of renewable energy and the environment in South Africa

Integrated resource planning (IRP) of power generation and delivery characterized by higher penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) has taken the 21st century world by storm. It promises power markets that are more resilient to resource and capital cost uncertainties as well as environmental sustainability. The success of this new paradigm has been largely anchored by decisive support policy mechanisms and good implementation. But while the developed and emerging economies are registering phenomenal growth in their renewable energy industries, South Africa would appear to be caught in a time warp with a weak environment policy and a power sector that continues to plan its future in the traditional way. The consequences are continued environmental degradation and a high-energy intensive economy with intermittent power supplies.     

Decentralized energy planning model for optimum resource allocation with a case study of the domestic sector of rurals in Nepal

The paper is concerned with the development of a simplified linear model which attempts to optimize the cost function of an energy supply system consisting of a mix of energy resources and conversion devices, each of which may have a constraint with respect to availability, efficiency and cost. The model has been applied in three villages, from three different physiographic zones of Nepal, for which detailed data were collected and analysed. The results of the study show that the optimized use of different energy sources in different regions is strongly dependent on demographic and climatic parameters. For hill villages, hydropower could become the cheapest source of energy if technical options were provided, but until then more efficient use of wood is the only viable solution. Commercial sources like kerosene and LPG are not likely to play any significant role in hill and mountain villages. On the other hand, the use of biogas is economically most feasible in Terai village. The availability of kerosene rules out wood or agriculture waste as feasible solutions for cooking energy needs, as this village is closer to the Indian border and has good road access.     

Zonal thermal model of the ventilation of underground transformer substations: Development and parametric study

An algebraic thermal zonal model of the ventilation of underground transformer substations during a standardised temperature rise test is presented in this paper. The development and adjustment of the proposed model rely on the analysis of the air flow pattern and temperature distributions obtained by a more complex model numerically solved by means of CFD techniques. The flow domain of the model represents a section of the substations divided into several interrelated zones where the mass and the energy conservation equations are formulated and the generated system of nonlinear algebraic equations is solved. The model is validated by comparing its results with the ones obtained by the CFD model and with the experimental results of eight temperature rise tests under different conditions. A parametric analysis was carried out on the model to prove its utility as an efficient tool to improve and optimise the thermal performance of transformer substations during the design process. From the parametric study it has been inferred that the main parameters affecting the ventilation of the substations are the pass area between the LV–MV zone and the transformer zone, the surface area of the ventilation grilles in the substation with horizontal ventilation, and the perimeter of the protruding ventilation vents in the substation with vertical ventilation.     

Load research as a tool in electric power system planning,operation, and control—The case of Jordan

Electric load research involves the systematic collection and analysis of customers’ electrical energy as well as demand requirements by time-of-day, month, season, and year; consumption patterns; socio-economic and demographic influencing factors; and willingness-to-pay for electricity. The information created by load research are the bases for all studies and analyses conducted by the electricity company to plan, monitor, operate, and control the power system. Several attempts were carried out in Jordan to create this very important body of knowledge. Studies and analyses are conducted regularly to update the information. This paper presents the author's experience in conducting load research investigations. These efforts culminated in three distinct contributions, which are still very useful in planning and operation of the power system in Jordan. (1) The first contribution by the author is related to creating a huge database of energy and electricity consumption characteristics, trends, and driving forces. The database is being continuously updated and as such constitutes a very basic tool for all demand forecasting and other planning studies. (2) The second contribution involves the estimation of the cost of un-served (unmet) electrical energy due to outages. This estimate, which is still being used as reference for planning studies carried out in Jordan, was first coined by the author at 1.0US$/kWh. (3) The final contribution concerns the use of the information in the load research database and the accumulated experience in determining peak load composition. This effort created the “near-exact” estimate of the characteristics and constitutions of the peak load divided among the various consuming sectors as well as among the various end-uses in Jordan. The results of these contributions are still being used by the electricity sector in Jordan until this day, either as unique information or as a guideline or reference to more recent estimates. More importantly, the efforts, as outlined in the three contributions above, have established a good base and reference point for further ongoing activities to collect, analyze, and use the information by various entities in the electricity sector in Jordan. However, the efforts need to be properly coordinated and entrusted with a single entity to ensure a better quality of information and avoid conflicting decisions.