Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewables, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development.     

Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020

This paper quantifies the contribution of Portuguese energy policies for total and marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO₂ emissions for 2020. The TIMES_PT optimisation model was used to derive MAC curves from a set of policy scenarios including one or more of the following policies: ban on nuclear power; ban on new coal power plants without carbon sequestration and storage; incentives to natural gas power plants; and a cap on biomass use. The different MAC shows the policies’ effects in the potential for CO₂ abatement. In 2020, in the most encompassing policy scenario, with all current and planned policies, is possible to abate only up to +35% of 1990 emissions at a cost below 23 € t/CO₂. In the more flexible policy scenarios, it is possible to abate up to −10% of 1990 emissions below the same cost. The total energy system costs are 10–13% higher if all policies are implemented—76 to 101 B€—roughly the equivalent to 2.01–2.65% of the 2005 GDP. Thus, from a CO₂ emission mitigation perspective, the existing policies introduce significant inefficiencies, possibly related to other policy goals. The ban on nuclear power is the instrument that has the most significant effect in MAC.     

Nuclear energy in the Soviet Union

Despite abundant supplies of fossil fuels in the Soviet Union, electricity from nuclear power increased dramatically in the 1970s. Plans for future expansion are also optimistic. The institutions of central planning theoretically allow coordination of different sectors and facilitate policy decisions of such magnitude. The inefficiencies of the planning process in practice, however, have meant failure to meet targets. Pressure groups have not influenced policy decisions and safety and environmental protection standards are lower than in the West. There is little overt disagreement with the decision to expand the nuclear sector but some scientists advocate new siting policies. For the moment, however, the expansion of the nuclear industry in the Soviet Union is secure.     

Australia: Approaching an energy crossroads

This paper considers energy policy in Australia in the context of its considerable energy resources, climate change and a recent change in government. It examines the possible paths that future energy use and policy in Australia could take, including published projections based largely on a “business as usual” approach and projections based on a dramatic shift towards more efficient use of energy and renewable energy technologies. It also considers the various factors affecting future policy direction, including energy security, the advocacy in Australia for establishing nuclear electricity generation and other parts of the nuclear fuel-cycle, responses to climate change, and carbon sequestration. It concludes that while the Australian Government is currently reluctant to move away from a dependence on coal, and unlikely to adopt nuclear energy generation, a low-emissions future without waiting for the deployment of carbon capture and storage and without resorting to nuclear power is within reach. However, in the face of strong pressure from interest groups associated with energy intensive industry, making the necessary innovations will require further growth of community concern about climate change, and the development of greater understanding of the feasibility of employing low carbon-emissions options.     

Coal,nuclear and renewable energy policies in Germany: From the 1950s to the “Energiewende”

Over the last 50 years, German energy policy has ranged from strong enthusiasm for both coal and nuclear energy to deep skepticism. The most dramatic changes with respect to energy policies have occurred as a response to nuclear accidents, yet the accidental and unintended effects of coal policies are also important in influencing the trajectory. The newly emerging climate debate prevented the coal industry from acting as a substitute for the diminishing share of nuclear power. In 2011 the conservative government announced the Energiewende (‘energy transformation’) and decided to reduce the amount of fossil fuels from 80% of the energy supply to 20% by 2050. However, while the verdict on nuclear was unequivocal with a final phase-out date of 2022, the share of coal in the electricity market did not decrease and the amount of carbon dioxide released into the air slightly increased from 2011 to 2013. There are growing conflicts over the immediate costs and practicalities of coal replacement. Consequently, the future of coal in Germany is still relatively open and contested.     

Balancing environmental benefits and damages of small hydropower generation in policy-making: assessing the implementation of a contradicting EU policy framework in Austria and Slovenia

Hydropower contributes to a higher share of renewables but is also in conflict with environmental legislation aiming to protect natural habitats, wildlife and endangered species. Analysing two neighbouring European countries with similar topographical and hydromporphological characteristics, Austria and Slovenia, allows assessing to what extent a policies’ national context steers possible policy conflicts of EU legislation. The paper shows that hydropower expansion in examined countries is strongly shaped by factors such as financial concerns of investors, diverging opinions of involved stakeholders, available hydro potential and the role of hydropower in national energy strategies. Addressing issues that lead to a lower effectiveness of national policies already at the level of EU policy design or engaging countries to broadening their national energy portfolio by considering emerging technologies such as PV and wind will enable future energy and climate strategies that are more consistent with other environmental goals.     

Theory-based policy evaluation of 20 energy efficiency instruments

Realizing a 20% energy efficiency improvement in Europe by 2020 requires the introduction of good new energy efficiency policies as well as strengthening and enforcing the existing policies. This raises the question: what characterizes good and effective energy efficiency policies and their implementation? Systematic ex post evaluation of energy efficiency policies can reveal factors determining not only what works and what does not but also explain why. Ex post evaluation of 20 energy efficiency policy instruments applied across different sectors and countries in Europe among others showed that ex post evaluation does not yet have a high priority among policy makers: Often, quantitative targets and clear timeframes are lacking, and monitoring information is not collected on a regular basis. Our analysis, however, did reveal some general factors in the process of design and implementation of policy instruments that appear as important including (1) existence of clear goals and a mandate for the implementing organization, (2) the ability to balance and combine flexibility and continuity, (3) the involvement of stakeholders, and (4) the ability to adapt to and integrate adjacent policies or develop consistent policy packages. The analysis was performed using a uniform methodology called “theory-based policy evaluation”. The general principle behind this approach is that a likely theory is drawn up on the program’s various steps of logic of intervention to achieve its targeted impact in terms of energy efficiency improvement. The approach has several benefits over other ex post evaluation methods because (1) the whole policy implementation process is evaluated and the focus is not just on the final impacts, (2) through the development of indicators for each step in the implementation process, the “successes and failures” can be determined to the greatest extent possible, and (3) by applying this approach, we not only learn whether policies are successful or not but also why they succeeded or failed and how they can be improved.     

Robustness as a goal in energy models and policies

Terms such as flexibility, resiliency, robustness and freedom of action are appearing increasingly in national energy policy documents with little reference to their meaning in the context of the policy or their measurement relative to policy development. One of these elements, robustness, presents an interesting alternative to cost minimization for decisions involving energy projects and policies. The use of robustness as a policy objective is examined with reference to future electrical generation in the province of Ontario, and the difficulties in planned outcomes between the goals of cost minimization and robustness are discussed. The assumption is made of a linkage between energy models and policies to facilitate the use of robustness analysis. Examples of the form of this linkage are presented in the Canadian context.     

Visions of a hydrogen future

This article examines key issues facing public and private decision makers advocating for - or affected - by the possible emergence of a hydrogen economy. It offers alternative visions of a hydrogen future, explores the extent to which society can manage this technological transition identifies key business and public policy issues, and offers recommendations. Hydrogen advocates should take the time to understand the culture of a sector, industry, or enterprise to enable identification of events and circumstances that prompts action. Also, hydrogen as currently conceived is expected to evolve from a local market to a continental market over time, implying that state and local policies is also strongly influencing its development.     

Nuclear power: Status report and future prospects

This article reviews the current status and future prospects of commercial nuclear electric power, with emphasis on issues of safety, physical security, proliferation, and economics. Discussions of these issues are presented separately for the current operating fleet, for new reactor designs similar in size to the current fleet, and for prospective new reactors of substantially smaller size. This article also discusses the issue of expansion of commercial nuclear power into new countries. The article concludes with recommendations, related both to technical issues and policy considerations. The major implications for policy are that although the level of safety and security achieved in today's operating reactor fleet worldwide is considered broadly acceptable, some advanced designs now under development potentially offer demonstrably safer performance, and may offer improved financial performance also. Management and safety culture are vital attributes for achieving adequate safety and security, as are a strong political culture that includes an absence of corruption, an independent regulatory authority, and a separation of nuclear operation from day-to-day politics. In some countries that are now considering a nuclear-power program for the first time, careful attention to these attributes will be essential for success.     

China's energy-water nexus – assessment of the energy sector's compliance with the “3 Red Lines” industrial water policy

Increasing population and economic growth continue to drive China's demand for energy and water resources. The interaction of these resources is particularly important in China, where water resources are unevenly distributed, with limited availability in coal-rich regions. The “3 Red Lines” water policies were introduced in 2011; one of their aims is to reduce industrial water use, of which the energy sector is a part. This paper analyses current water withdrawals and consumption for all energy processes and assesses the sector's compliance with the industrial water policy under different scenarios, considering potential future policy and technological changes. The results show that future energy plans could conflict with the industrial water policy, but the amount of water used in the energy sector is highly dependant on technology choices, especially for power plant cooling. High electricity demand in the future is expected to be met mainly by coal and nuclear power, and planned inland development of nuclear power presents a new source of freshwater demand. Taking a holistic view of energy and water-for-energy enables the identification of co-benefits and trade-offs between energy and water policies that can facilitate the development of more compatible and sustainable energy and water plans.     

Evaluating the risks of alternative energy policies: a case study of industrial energy efficiency

Numerous studies have shown the potential for US manufacturing to cut its energy costs by installing more efficient equipment that offers competitive payback periods, but the realization of this potential is hindered by numerous obstacles. This paper evaluates seven federal policy options aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing by improving its energy economics while also achieving environmental and energy reliability goals. Traditionally, policy analysts have examined the cost-effectiveness of energy policies using deterministic assumptions. When risk factors are introduced, they are typically examined using sensitivity analysis to focus on alternative assumptions about budgets, policy design, energy prices, and other such variables. In this paper, we also explicitly model the stochastic nature of several key risk factors including future energy prices, damages from climate change, and the cost of criteria pollutants. Using these two approaches, each policy is "stress tested" to evaluate the likely range of private and social returns on investment. Overall, we conclude that the societal cost-effectiveness of policies is generally more sensitive to alternative assumptions about damages from criteria pollutants and climate change compared with energy prices; however, risks also vary across policies based partly on the technologies they target. Future research needs to examine the macroeconomic consequences of the choice between a lethargic approach to energy waste and modernization in manufacturing versus a vigorous commitment to industrial energy productivity and innovation as characterized by the suite of policies described in this paper.     

核电事故对日本未来能源发展的影响及启示

东日本大地震引发的海啸造成福岛第一核电站重大泄漏事故,不仅对日本的社会与经济带来了显著的影响,也使得日本国内对核电的信任和依赖心理发生了动摇。为避免未来可能的事故发生,确保电力的安全稳定供应,日本各界展开了有关"核电是否是必须的"的大讨论,并对逐步摆脱核电的未来能源发展路径进行了探讨,其中的部分观点与思路值得我们在制定未来能源发展战略时加以借鉴。     

Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative analysis for energy production processes (EPPs): Sustainable energy futures for Turkey

This study presents a comparative analysis of three different energy production process (EPP) scenarios for Turkey. Main goal is to incorporate the prioritization criteria for the assessment of various energy policies for power alternatives, and evaluating these policies against these criteria. The three types of EPPs reviewed in this study are: electricity production from wind farms in the future, existing coal-based thermal power plants and planned nuclear power plants. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is utilized to assess the main and sub-factors of EPPs. Main factors such as economic, technical, social and environmental are assigned in first level of the AHP. The importance weights of factors are produced and priority values with realistic numbers are obtained using Fuzzy-AHP Chang’s Model. Priority value for wind energy was determined as two times higher than the others when making the ultimate decision. On aggregate, importance weights of environmental (0.68) and social (0.69) factors make wind power leader. Sub-factors such as public acceptance, waste-emission and environmental impacts cause both nuclear and thermal power to have the lowest priority numbers. Additionally, the CO₂ emissions trade was determined to be a very important criterion associated with both economic and environmental factors according to Kyoto Protocol. This study concludes that Turkey’s existing thermal power stations should gradually be substituted by renewable energy options according to a schedule of Turkish energy policies in future.     

The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other “green” products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Energy policy and standard for built environment in China

Trends in China's energy future will have considerable consequences for both China and the global environment. Though China's carbon emissions are low on a per capita basis, China is already ranked the world's second largest producer of carbon, behind only America. China's buildings sector currently accounts for 23% of China's total energy use and is projected to increase to one-third by 2010. Energy policy plays an important role in China's sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to provide a broad overview of energy efficiency issues in the built environment in China. This paper, firstly briefly, reviews the key national policies related to the built environment and demonstrates the government's environmental concern. Secondly, the authors introduce recent energy policies in the built environment. Energy efficiency and renewable energy in the built environment, which are the key issues of the national energy policy, have been reviewed. Discussion of the implementation of energy policy has been carried out.     

On the contribution of external cost calculations to energy system governance: The case of a potential large-scale nuclear accident

The contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue. This paper presents a critical review of an attempt to objectify this debate through the calculation of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident in the ExternE project. A careful dissection of the ExternE approach resulted in a list of 30 calculation steps and assumptions, from which the 6 most contentious ones were selected through a stakeholder internet survey. The policy robustness and relevance of these key assumptions were then assessed in a workshop using the concept of a ‘pedigree of knowledge’. Overall, the workshop outcomes revealed the stakeholder and expert panel's scepticism about the assumptions made: generally these were considered not very plausible, subjected to disagreement, and to a large extent inspired by contextual factors. Such criticism indicates a limited validity and useability of the calculated nuclear accident externality as a trustworthy sustainability indicator. Furthermore, it is our contention that the ExternE project could benefit greatly – in terms of gaining public trust – from employing highly visible procedures of extended peer review such as the pedigree assessment applied to our specific case of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident.     

Long-term payoffs of near-term low-carbon deployment policies

Recent climate change negotiations indicate that near-term policies to address climate change are likely to vary across countries with countries employing a range of different policy options. One option frequently mooted at the national level is to promote, via policy, the deployment of low-carbon technologies. Promoting the deployment of low-carbon technologies can involve a near-term cost, if such technologies are more expensive overall, or require more upfront capital, than emitting alternatives. However, it lowers future costs of emissions abatement by reducing emissions in the near-term and potentially accelerating rates of improvement in targeted low-carbon technologies. We derive a globally cost-effective, near-term international technology investment strategy to achieve a long-term climate goal and show that it employs a diversified international technology investment portfolio across countries. We also explore the degree to which independent national technology deployment policies align with collaboratively determined regimes. We show that conditions exist under which there are substantial gains to international cooperation in the deployment of diverse low-carbon technologies and also circumstances in which domestic outcomes align with the global outcome.     

Energy resources—are we planning for the future?—a review

Many governments are at present attempting to formulate energy strategies for ensuring future supplies. the debate over nuclear power is continuing and ‘pollution-free’ alternative energy sources are also being considered. Points for and against each of the possible energy sources are discussed here and the possible hazards of nuclear power (e.g. radioactivity) are compared with the possible dangers of ‘free-energy’ sources (e.g. an increased ‘greenhouse’ effect). the importance of an integrated energy policy is stressed. Such a policy does not rely on a single energy source but utilizes the full spectrum of possibilities and can incorporate the more immediate concepts of energy savings.