Carbon trading: Current schemes and future developments

This paper looks at the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading schemes and examines the prospects of carbon trading. The first part of the paper gives an overview of several mandatory GHG trading schemes around the world. The second part focuses on the future trends in carbon trading. It argues that the emergence of new schemes, a gradual enlargement of the current ones, and willingness to link existing and planned schemes seem to point towards geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading. However, such expansion would need to overcome some considerable technical and non-technical obstacles. Linking of the current and emerging trading schemes requires not only considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems, but also necessitates clear regulatory and policy signals, continuing political support and a more stable economic environment. Currently, the latter factors are missing. The global economic turmoil and its repercussions for the carbon market, a lack of the international deal on climate change defining the Post-Kyoto commitments, and unfavourable policy shifts in some countries, cast serious doubts on the expansion of emissions trading and indicate that carbon trading enters an uncertain period.     

Tradable white certificate schemes: fundamental concepts

A number of European countries have introduced market-based instruments to encourage investment in energy efficiency improvement and achieve national energy savings targets. Some of these schemes are based on quantified energy savings obligations imposed on energy distributors or suppliers, coupled with a certification of the energy savings (via white certificates), and a possibility to trade certificates. The paper describes the concept and the main elements of a tradable white certificate scheme, where appropriate giving examples from existing schemes in Europe. It discusses design and operational features that are key to achieve the overall savings targets, such as delineation of the scheme in terms of obliged parties, eligible projects and technologies, institutional structure, and processes to support the scheme, such as measurement and verification. Finally, the paper looks at a number of open issues, most importantly the possibility of creating a voluntary market for white certificates via integration into the carbon market.

Does EU ETS lead to emission reductions through trade? The case of the Swedish emissions trading sector participants

The first trading period of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has recently come to an end. The experiences of the actors in the trading sector will be of great importance in evaluating the aim and direction of this “Grand Policy Experiment”. This paper gives an account of the attitudes and actions of the companies included in the Swedish emissions trading sector after about 15 months of experience with the system. The data are based on a study commissioned by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, and is a comprehensive survey that encompasses all companies operating installations included in the Swedish Emission Trading Registry. However, the results point in a somewhat disquieting direction. Although the Swedish companies have shown significant interest in reducing emissions, this survey indicates that this is done without close attention to the pricing mechanism of the market-based instruments. If this praxis is widespread within the European trading sector, it can have a serious negative effect on the efficiency of the system.     

Energy supplier obligations and white certificate schemes: Comparative analysis of experiences in the European Union

A number of Member States of the European Union (EU) have introduced market-based policy portfolios based on quantified energy savings obligations on energy distributors or suppliers, possibly coupled with certification of project-based energy savings (via white certificates), and the option to trade the certificates or obligations. The paper provides an up-to-date review and analysis of results to date of white certificate schemes in the EU.     

Next allocation phase of the EU emissions trading scheme: How tough will the future be?

The development of National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the first phase 2005–2007 of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) was accompanied by the stated concern of the industrial enterprises with installations that fall under the scope of the relevant Directive 2003/87, since the impacts of the allocation in their financial and technical modes of operation were judged to be severe. Thus, the intensity of the negotiations for the next allocation phase (i.e. 2008–2012), is expected to be heated. With a view to assisting enterprises, especially in the energy sector or for which energy use and its management is a crucial part of their activity, to incorporate in their business plans the impacts of the Directive in an informed manner, an attempt is made here to explore the constraints and the available options that will guide the coming EU-ETS potential allocations. In the analysis, the credits derived from the use of CDM are specifically taken into account. The results show that the next allocations would tend to be significantly more stringent than the current ones because of the combined effect of no inter-period transfer of allowances, the amount of CDM credits expected to be available compared to the amount of effort that would be required and the yield of emission reductions from existing or planned policies and measures. It becomes then crucial, if not imperative, for the enterprises involved as well as national governments to examine carefully means to address their obligations under the Directive.     

Utility energy efficiency schemes: savings obligations and trading

Utility financed and/or operated energy efficiency schemes have a long history going back to the first energy crisis in 1973. It is therefore appropriate to ask what is new about the recent raft of white certificate schemes and whether there is anything that makes them more effective than the older approaches. This paper attempts to answer these questions by reviewing the experience with earlier utility schemes and comparing them with the more recent schemes implemented on both sides of the Atlantic as well as Australia. Up-to-date results are reported on utility programme impact in all the regions, including a new indicator analysis of the collective, long-term impact of such schemes in the USA. From this it is clear that both the new and old schemes are highly effective in delivering substantial, sustained and cost effective energy savings and associated reductions in CO₂ emissions. A key component of programme impact, including cost-effectiveness, is the effective alignment of utility commercial incentives with the delivery of energy savings. There are essentially two new elements of the recent utility energy efficiency schemes: i) mandated energy savings obligations and ii) the flexibility to trade the obligations. The mandated savings obligation, when linked to a suitable non-compliance penalty structure, seems to be an especially effective means of ensuring that public policy objectives for energy efficiency are met. The importance of allowing obligations to be traded for programme success is not yet clear and will require more time before proper longitudinal evaluations can be attempted.

Coevolution of policy,market and technical price risks in the EU ETS

Within the EU, there have been calls for governments to provide greater certainty over carbon prices, even though it is evident that their price risk is not entirely due to policy uncertainty. We develop a stochastic simulation model of price formation in the EU ETS to analyse the coevolution of policy, market and technology risks under different initiatives. The current situation of a weak (20%) overall abatement target motivates various technology-support interventions, elevating policy uncertainty as the major source of carbon price risk. In contrast, taking a firm decision to move to a more stringent 30% cap would leave the EU–ETS price formation driven much more by market forces than by policy risks. This leads to considerations of how much risk mitigation by governments would be appropriate, and how much should be taken as business risk by the market participants.     

Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals

We investigate the price determination of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) of the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). We postulate an uncertain permit price and risk-averse firms which have the possibility to hedge in the forward market. The firms produce final goods, abate their emissions and trade permits in the permit market. The dependence of the equilibrium permit price on exogenous variables is studied in a permit market model. We test our theoretical findings with empirical data from 2005 to 2010 in the EU ETS market. We use daily forward prices of EUA as our dependent variable. We use several econometric models with multiple stationary time series to discover that there is a strong relationship between the fundamentals, such as German electricity prices and gas and coal prices, with the price of EUA. We find that the EUA forward price depends on fundamentals, especially on the price of electricity as well as on the gas–coal difference, in a statistically significant way.     

Grandfathering and coal plant emissions: the cost of cleaning up the Clean Air Act

The Clean Air Act imposes much stricter emission limits on new coal-burning power plants than on older ones — a practice that has no obvious theoretical justification. Elimination of “grandfather rules”, i.e., applying new plant standards to the US electric industry as a whole, would eliminate 40% of nationwide SO₂ emissions and 15% of NO_X emissions, while raising average retail electricity rates by only 4%. Under this scenario, 94% or more of existing coal plants would remain economically competitive with new gas-fired power plants. Policy options for elimination of grandfathering include: an explicit requirement that each existing plant meet new-plant standards; a “cap and trade” system of emission allowances similar to the current SO₂ trading system; and a generation performance standard, an interesting new variant on emissions trading which incorporates a more equitable and flexible allocation of allowances.     

An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is supposed to be an important mechanism for addressing climate change. Up to now, the theoretical foundation of EU ETS has been widely acknowledged, but empirical research on its current situation has only been published recently or is forthcoming. Therefore, this paper is aimed to summarize the main arguments of empirical studies on the EU ETS, in terms of two aspects, i.e., the operating mechanism and economic effect of the EU ETS, which are two crucial topics and have been attached much attention. Based on the shortcomings of current research and future requirements of the EU ETS evolution, finally, we also present some further directions of the EU ETS research. Overall, the research overview here may be helpful to recognize the features of the EU ETS and its effect on others.     

Output-based allocations and revenue recycling: Implications for the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is more comprehensive in its coverage of emissions than schemes introduced or proposed to date in any other country in that it includes agricultural greenhouse gases, which account for half of New Zealand’s total emissions. But, motivated by concerns for the international competitiveness of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industrial and agricultural activities, current legislation provides for substantial ongoing free allocations to such activities, linked to their output. Here we use a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the impacts of output-based allocation, given the possibility of recycling net revenues to reduce prior distorting taxes. Unlike previous modelling studies of alternative NZ ETS designs, we allow for a more realistic modelling both of capital and labour supply. We find that, as suggested by theoretical results, interactions between the ETS and existing taxes are important. Given any level of output-based allocation, the negative macroeconomic impacts can be reduced by recycling net revenues as efficiently as possible. Less obviously, we find that there may be an optimal non-zero level of output-based allocation. This optimal level increases as the carbon price and/or factor supply elasticities increase, but decreases if revenues are recycled with greater efficiency.     

Impact of single versus multiple policy options on the economic feasibility of biogas energy production: Swine and dairy operations in Nova Scotia

The economic feasibility of on-farm biogas energy production was investigated for swine and dairy operations under Nova Scotia, Canada farming conditions, using net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period (PP) economic decision criteria. In addition, the effects of selected environmental and “green” energy policy schemes on co-generation of on-farm biogas energy production and other co-benefits from anaerobic digestion of livestock manure were investigated. Cost-efficiencies arising from economies of scale for on-farm anaerobic biogas production were found for swine farms, and less so for dairy production systems. Without incentive schemes, on-farm biogas energy production was not economically feasible across the farm size ranges studied, except for 600- and 800-sow operations. Among single policy schemes investigated, green energy credit policy schemes generated the highest financial returns, compared to cost-share and low-interest loan schemes. Combinations of multiple policies that included cost-share and green energy credit incentive schemes generated the most improvement in financial feasibility of on-farm biogas energy production, for both swine and dairy operations.     

Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies.     

Chinese companies’ awareness and perceptions of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Evidence from a national survey in China

China announced the launch of a national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2017; however, companies appear show little enthusiasm for participation in the ETS in China. This paper identifies the factors affecting companies’ awareness and perceptions of ETS by conducting a national survey based on an online questionnaire from May to November 2015 in seven carbon trading pilots. The results indicate that companies’ attitudes towards the ETS are positively influenced by government regulations and policy, public relations management and estimated economic benefit. Of these, public relations management is the decisive factor and estimated economic benefit is confirmed to be a relatively weak predictor. A company's environmental and energy strategy exerts insignificant effects on its preference for the ETS, although the sampled companies are very willing to save energy and reduce emissions. There exists an inverted U-shape relationship between a company's level of mitigation technologies and its attitudes towards the ETS. The carbon price fails to stimulate companies to upgrade mitigation technologies. The majority of companies treat participation in the ETS only as a means of improving ties with governments, as well as of earning a good social reputation, rather than as a cost-effective mechanism to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.     

Linking least-cost energy system costs models with MCA: An assessment of the EU renewable energy targets and supporting policies

There are several technoeconomic modeling approaches that provide quantitative results such as costs and the level of achievement of certain renewable energy (RE) policy targets. These approaches often do not consider other important factors for policy implementation (such as socio-political aspects and stakeholders' preferences). Recent multicriteria analysis (MCA) approaches attempt to integrate these multiple aspects in decision making process. In this respect, aim of this paper is to combine technoeconomic modeling and MCA approaches in a general analytical framework incorporating multiple aspects. Each method in an RE policy interaction problem can feed in the necessary policy information for the subsequent steps of an ex-ante and an ex-post assessment in a decision tree, starting from recognizing the need for implementing a new policy in parallel to the incumbent ones, assessing the actual policy costs and finally identifying the social acceptability of these RE policies.     

Bioenergy expansion in the EU: Cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels

Presently, the European Union (EU) is promoting bioenergy. The aim of this paper is to study the prospects for using domestic biomass resources in Europe and specifically to investigate whether different policy objectives underlying the promotion of bioenergy (cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels) agree on which bioenergy options that should be used. We model bioenergy use from a cost-effectiveness perspective with a linear regionalized energy- and transport-system model and perform supplementary analysis. It is found that the different policy objectives do not agree on the order of priority among bioenergy options. Maximizing climate benefits cost-effectively is in conflict with maximizing employment creation. The former perspective proposes the use of lignocellulosic biomass in the stationary sector, while the latter requires biofuels for transport based on traditional agricultural crops. Further, from a security-of-supply perspective, the appeal of a given bioenergy option depends on how oil and gas import dependencies are weighed relative to each other. Consequently, there are tradeoffs that need to be addressed by policymakers promoting the use of bioenergy. Also, the importance of bioenergy in relation to employment creation and fuel import dependency reduction needs to be further addressed.     

Indicators of bioenergy-related certification schemes – An analysis of the quality and comprehensiveness for assessing local/regional environmental impacts

Bioenergy is receiving increasing attention because it may reduce greenhouse gas emissions, secure and diversify energy supplies and stimulate rural development. The environmental sustainability of bioenergy production systems is often determined through life-cycle assessments that focus on global environmental effects, such as the emission of greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Local/regional environmental impacts, e.g., the impacts on soil or on biodiversity, require site-specific and flexible options for the assessment of environmental sustainability, such as the criteria and indicators used in bioenergy certification schemes.In this study, we compared certification schemes and assessed the indicator quality through the environmental impact categories, using a standardized rating scale to evaluate the indicators. Current certification schemes have limitations in their representation of the environmental systems affected by feedstock production. For example, these schemes predominantly use feasible causal indicators, instead of more reliable but less feasible effect indicators. Furthermore, the comprehensiveness of the depicted environmental systems and the causal links between human land use activities and biophysical processes in these systems have been assessed. Bioenergy certification schemes seem to demonstrate compliance with underlying legislation, such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive, rather than ensure environmental sustainability. Beyond, certification schemes often lack a methodology or thresholds for sustainable biomass use. Lacking thresholds, imprecise causal links and incomplete indicator sets may hamper comparisons of the environmental performances of different feedstocks. To enhance existing certification schemes, we propose combining the strengths of several certification schemes with research-based indicators, to increase the reliability of environmental assessments.     

When renewable portfolio standards meet cap-and-trade regulations in the electricity sector: Market interactions,profits implications,and policy redundancy

Emission trading programs (C&T) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are two common tools used by policymakers to control GHG emissions in the energy and other energy-intensive sectors. Little is known, however, as to the policy implications resulting from these concurrent regulations, especially given that their underlying policy goals and regulatory schemes are distinct. This paper applies both an analytical model and a computational model to examine the short-run implications of market interactions and policy redundancy. The analytical model is used to generate contestable hypotheses, while the numerical model is applied to consider more realistic market conditions. We have two central findings. First, lowering the CO₂ C&T cap might penalize renewable units, and increasing the RPS level could sometimes benefit coal and oil and make natural gas units worse off. Second, making one policy more stringent would weaken the market incentive, which the other policy relies upon to attain its intended policy target.     

Policies and design elements for the repowering of wind farms: A qualitative analysis of different options

Repowering of a wind farm is the process of replacing existing wind turbines with new turbines that either have a larger nameplate capacity or more efficiency, resulting in a net increase of the power generated. Although repowering brings, both, social and private benefits, there are also several obstacles to repowering which justify public support. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview and a qualitative analysis of instruments and design options to support repowering of on-shore wind farms. The multicriteria analysis carried out in this paper shows that all instruments have their advantages and drawbacks. However, feed-in tariffs and investment subsidies seem to be particularly appropriate instruments in this regard. Furthermore, we provide an assessment of different design options to promote repowering according to key assessment criteria. The relevance of design elements hinges on the fact that these are the ones directly affecting the variables that are relevant in the decision to repower (capacity factors and investment costs).     

Study of the oxidation stability and exhaust emission analysis of Moringa olifera biodiesel in a multi-cylinder diesel engine with aromatic amine antioxidants

In this study, the two most effective aromatic amine antioxidants N,N′-diphenyl-1,4-phenylenediamine (DPPD) and N-phenyl-1,4-phenylenediamine (NPPD), were used at a concentration of 2000 ppm. The impact of antioxidants on the oxidation stability, exhaust emission and engine performance of a multi-cylinder diesel engine fuelled with MB20 (20% Moringa oil methyl ester and 80% diesel fuel blend) were analysed at varying speed conditions at an interval of 500 rpm and a constant load. It was observed that, blending with diesel enhanced the oxidation stability of the moringa biodiesel by approximately 6.97 h, and the addition of DPPD and NPPD to MB20 increased the oxidation stability up to 34.5 and 18.4 h, respectively. The results also showed that the DPPD- and NPPD-treated blends reduced the NOx emission by 7.4% and 3.04%, respectively, compared to the untreated blend. However, they do have higher carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) levels and smoke opacities, but it should be noted that these emissions are still well below the diesel fuel emission level. The results show that the addition of antioxidant with MB20 also improves the engine's performance characteristics. Based on this study, MB20 blends with amine antioxidants can be used in diesel engines without any modification.