Challenges for CO2 mitigation in the Lebanese electric-power sector

Similar to other developing countries the electricity sector in Lebanon is monopolized by a vertically integrated public utility, Electricite Du Liban (EDL). EDL's supply is characterized by frequent and lengthy power cuts that have given rise to an alternative, informal, and unregulated backup sector, which serves to satisfy electricity demand during the extended blackout periods. This paper examines the evolvement of the backup sector and its related CO₂ emissions via the use of scenario analysis. The economic and energy policy implications of each scenario are discussed and a number of policy options are presented to ensure that the growth in CO₂ emissions is contained. Results clearly indicate that the backup sector plays a critical role in the success of any greenhouse gas mitigation commitment undertaken by Lebanon. A clear strategy on dealing with this sector needs to be devised simultaneously if not prior to any climate change policy at the national level.     

The energy–climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971–2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO₂ emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond.     

Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO₂ emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995–2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change.     

A sectoral decomposition analysis of Turkish CO2 emissions over 1990–2007

At a time of increased international concern and negotiations for greenhouse gas emission reduction, country studies on the underlying effects of greenhouse gas emission growth gain importance. The case of Turkey is particularly interesting due to rapidly growing emissions, accompanied by a political will and actions to reduce the quick growth. The refined Laspeyres method is used in this study to identify factors that accelerate or reduce the increase in Turkish CO₂ emissions. A year-by-year decomposition over 1990-2007 is carried out at sectoral level based on disaggregated data that is consistent over time and consistent with international standards. Various interesting results on the underlying effects of sectoral emission growth are found. Valuable insights are gained into CO₂ impacts of sectoral policies including energy and emission intensities, fuel switching and activity changes. The results yield important hints for the planning of energy and climate policy.     

The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions

In the US, the bulk of CO₂ abatement induced by carbon taxes comes from electric power. This paper incorporates technology detail into the electricity sector of a computable general equilibrium model of the US economy to characterize electric power's technological margins of adjustment to carbon taxes and to elucidate their general equilibrium effects. Compared to the top-down production function representation of the electricity sector, the technology-rich hybrid specification produces less abatement at a higher welfare cost, suggesting that bottom-up models do not necessarily generate lower costs of abatement than top-down models. This result is shown to be sensitive to the elasticity with which technologies’ generating capacities adjust to relative prices.     

Energy and CO2 emissions in Korea: Long-term scenarios and related policies

Korea will require increasingly higher energy inputs in coming years to further its economic development process. While due to the inconvenience of coal use and its negative impacts on the environment, Korea's reliance on its most carbon-intensive energy source will drop over the next few decades, the overall growth of energy demand (and particularly the rising consumption of oil) will translate into substantially higher emissions of energy-related CO₂. This paper presents the results of two long-term scenarios for Korea for the year 2025 in order to investigate the possibilities of constraining the future growth of energy and emissions. The results indicate that by improving energy efficiency through technological progress, fuel switching and related policies, Korea can begin to make the necessary transition to a less carbon-intensive future.     

Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020

This study has been created in order to better inform climate policy recommendations for China through the study of emissions reduction potential and mitigation opportunities in the major emission sectors in the country. The LEAP model along with three scenarios has been employed in this study. The study has projected that under all scenarios, China's emissions in major sectors will increase. However, through the current sustainable development strategy and even more aggressive emission reduction policies, an annual average of 201–486 million metric tons (MMT) of emissions could be reduced. The cost analysis shows that opportunities are available to achieve significant additional emission reductions at reasonable rates. Besides the results on mitigation opportunities in each sector, this research also explores sectoral preference when determining policies from different perspectives. This study concludes that China's “unilateral actions” since 2000 should be recognized and encouraged. If further emission reduction were required, sector-based mitigation policies would be a very good option and selecting proper policy-making perspective(s) and identifying the most cost-effective mitigation measures within sector and across sectors would be the key information needed to devise these policies.     

CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control

This paper identifies the main features of CO₂ emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China's future energy requirements and projects its CO₂ emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China's rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO₂ intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO₂ emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country's economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO₂ emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China.     

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK

This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO₂ emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO₂ emissions is achievable, even when all CO₂ sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria.     

The impact of CHP generation on CO2 emissions

The combined generation of heat and power (cogeneration) is praised by many as a technique for reducing the emissions of CO₂ in industrialized nations. This is generally true but not always. In this article we discuss the impact of some major variables on the CO₂ emission reduction capacity of cogeneration. Two sets of variables are predominant: the characteristics of the CHP process and the composition of the electricity generation sector. We highlight the interaction between the two sets of variables with the help of diagrams.     

The Chinese nonferrous metals industry—energy use and CO2 emissions

China is the largest nonferrous metals producer in the world and largest consumer for six kinds of common nonferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin. This paper provides an overview of the nonferrous metals industry in China, from a CO₂ emissions reduction perspective. It addresses energy use disaggregated by energy carrier and by province. It focuses on an analysis of energy efficiency in the production of aluminum, copper and nickel. A few large-scale enterprises produce most of the aluminum, copper and nickel in China, and use manufacturing facilities that were built within the last 20 years or have recently upgraded their main production equipment and processes. The energy efficiency of these operations is not particularly low compared to international practice. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) operate nonferrous metals production facilities which rank low in energy efficiency and therefore are highly energy intensive per unit of physical output. Backward production capacity would be phased out continuously by enforcing the energy intensity norms.     

Revisiting CO2 mitigation potential and costs in China’s electricity sector

To improve the reliability of sectoral mitigation potential and cost analysis, this paper made an in-depth exploration into China’s electricity sector’s thermal efficiency and inner structure. It is found that unlike what many literatures portray, China is actually among the world’s leaders in coal-fired power plants’ generating efficiencies; besides, although there are still numerous small and inefficient generating units in the current generation fleet, many of them are in fact playing important roles in supporting local economic development, meeting peak load needs, balancing heat and electricity supply and providing job opportunities to the local economy, therefore their existence does not necessarily mean low-cost mitigation potential. Given the efficiency and structural characteristics of China’s electricity sector, it is pointed out that some other mitigation options, such as demand side management, IGCC and renewable energy as well as the break-through of CCS technology may play an even more important role in emission reduction. Considering the significant lock-in effects in electricity sector, it is warned that China, if continues putting majority investment in large and advanced coal-fired generating units, will face another round of chasing-after for the new and advanced renewable generation technologies. Therefore China should put more efforts in renewable generation technologies now.     

Reducing energy-related CO2 emissions using accelerated weathering of limestone

The use and impacts of accelerated weathering of limestone (AWL; reaction: CO₂+H₂O+CaCO₃→Ca²⁺+2(HCO₃⁻) is explored as a CO₂ capture and sequestration method. It is shown that significant limestone resources are relatively close to a majority of CO₂-emitting power plants along the coastal US, a favored siting location for AWL. Waste fines, representing more than 20% of current US crushed limestone production (>10⁹ tonnes/yr), could provide an inexpensive or free source of AWL carbonate. With limestone transportation then as the dominant cost variable, CO₂ mitigation costs of $3-$4/tonne appear to be possible in certain locations. Perhaps 10–20% of US point–source CO₂ emissions could be mitigated in this fashion. It is experimentally shown that CO₂ sequestration rates of 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁵ moles/sec per m² of limestone surface area are achievable, with reaction densities on the order of 10⁻² tonnes CO₂ m⁻³day⁻¹, highly dependent on limestone particle size, solution turbulence and flow, and CO₂ concentration. Modeling shows that AWL would allow carbon storage in the ocean with significantly reduced impacts to seawater pH relative to direct CO₂ disposal into the atmosphere or sea. The addition of AWL-derived alkalinity to the ocean may itself be beneficial for marine biota.     

Assessing the effects of CO2 price caps on electricity investments—A real options analysis

This paper uses real options modeling to assess the impact of different climate change policy instruments on investment, profits and cumulative emissions in the electricity sector. Even though CO₂ price caps or “safety valves” have been suggested as methods to limit uncertainty emanating from fluctuating prices of CO₂ permits that would hurt the industry's profit and thereby also energy security, our analysis shows that price caps set at a too low level are detrimental to the adoption of e.g. modern biomass-fired capacity as a replacement for existing coal-fired power plants. We therefore conduct a series of experiments with different policy scenarios to analyze under which regime emissions are most effectively reduced. With respect to CO₂ price uncertainty, it turns out that even for moderately rising CO₂ prices, fluctuations frequently lead to investment into carbon capture and storage (CCS), while investment is often not triggered in the face of deterministic CO₂ prices.     

Dynamics of energy-related CO2 emissions in China during 1980 to 2002: The relative importance of energy supply-side and demand-side effects

Based on a newly developed model that integrates energy production, transformation and consumption processes, this paper compares the relative importance of some traditionally recognized factors operating on the energy demand side with a body of newly defined factors on the supply side, in terms of their contribution to trends in China's CO₂ emissions related to the total primary energy supply (C-TPES).

Before 1996, changes in China's C-TPES were mainly driven by changes on the energy demand side. Factors operating on the energy supply side played trivial roles. During the period 1996–2000, however, increasing demand-side effects declined dramatically and at the same time decreasing effects from supply side expanded significantly. Such changes resulted directly in a decline in the C-TPES. The decreasing effects from international trade as well as statistical imbalances between supply and demand reinforced the declining trend.

The shrinkage of demand side effects mainly arose from the slowdown of economic growth and speed of decrease in energy intensity. The expansion of supply-side effects was principally attributed to the speed of decrease in gross unit consumption in transformation sectors, especially in electricity sector. Therefore, the acceleration of efficiency improvements in end-use and transformation sectors accounted for the decline in the C-TPES over the period 1996–2000.     

Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China

This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975–2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO₂ emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO₂ emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO₂ emissions.     

Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis

A study is presented of the rates of penetration of different transport technologies under policy constraints on CO₂ emissions. The response of this sector is analyzed within an overall national level of restriction, with a focus on automobiles, light trucks, and heavy freight trucks. Using the US as an example, a linked set of three models is used to carry out the analysis: a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of the economy, a MARKAL-type model of vehicle and fuel supply technology, and a model simulating the split of personal and freight transport among modes. Results highlight the importance of incremental improvements in conventional internal combustion engine technology, and, in the absence of policies to overcome observed consumer discount rates, the very long time horizons before radical alternatives like the internal combustion engine hybrid drive train vehicle are likely to take substantial market share.     

CO2 emissions,electricity consumption and output in ASEAN

This study examines the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, electricity consumption and economic growth within a panel vector error correction model for five ASEAN countries over the period 1980–2006. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant positive association between electricity consumption and emissions and a non-linear relationship between emissions and real output, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The long-run estimates, however, do not indicate the direction of causality between the variables. The results from the Granger causality tests suggest that in the long-run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption and emissions to economic growth. The results also point to unidirectional Granger causality running from emissions to electricity consumption in the short-run.