Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand.     

Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

This paper analyzes the sectoral energy consumption pattern and emissions of CO₂ and local air pollutants in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. It also discusses the evolution of energy service demands, structure of energy supply system and emissions from various sectors under the base case scenario during 2005–2050. A long term energy system planning model of the Kathmandu Valley based on the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework is used for the analyses. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the least cost options to achieve CO₂ emission reduction targets of 10%, 20% and 30% below the cumulative emission level in the base case and also discusses their implications for total cost, technology-mix, energy-mix and local pollutant emissions. The paper shows that a major switch in energy use pattern from oil and gas to electricity would be needed in the Valley to achieve the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 30% (ER30). Further, the share of electricity in the cumulative energy consumption of the transport sector would increase from 12% in the base case to 24% in the ER30 case.     

Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000–2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO₂ emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO₂ emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO₂ emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.     

资源生产率视角的能源使用与环境质量关系模型研究

能源的大量使用导致环境质量的严重恶化,本文对经济增长过程中能源使用与环境质量关系模型进行了详细的研究,并提出了提高能源资源生产率的相应举措,以便有利于资源节约型、环境友好型社会的建设。     

《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》的实施回顾及展望

2006年1月1日国务院颁布实施了《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》,它不仅成为推动我国可再生能源发展的重要法律保障,而且在国际上也产生了积极影响。《可再生能源法》建立了总量目标、强制上网、分类电价、费用分摊和专项资金5项基本法律制度,围绕这5项基本法律制度,形成了支持可再生能源发展,特别是支持可再生能源发电的比较完整的法律和政策体系。同时,重要法律制度和一些规定、规章的实施取得了一定进展,促进了可再生能源的开发利用,对缓解资源瓶颈性约束、应对气候变化做出了巨大贡献。然而《可再生能源法》在实施中也暴露出一些突出问题,如可再生能源开发利用规划同能源规划以及电力、电网规划脱节,可再生能源发电强制上网和全额收购制度难以落实,可再生能源电价附加调配方式不合理等。为此,在法律后评估工作的基础上,全国人大环资委提出了修改《可再生能源法》的相关立法建议,内容包括实行统筹规划,市场配置与政府宏观调控相结合,保证国家扶持资金集中统一使用,形成政府统一调控的可再生能源发展基金。全额保障性收购制度是此次法律修改的最大亮点。2009年12月26日,十一届全国人大常委会第十二次会议表决通过了对修改《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》的决定。     

能源工业投融资体制改革的对策及建议

文章提出了能源工业投融资体制入世后的改革对策及建议,在保证国家安全的前提下,鼓励民间资本进入能源工业,在垄断行业引入竞争机制。     

上海分布式供能系统工程发展状况及政策初探

简要介绍了上海分布式供能系统工程发展状况,提出了目前所存在的发展障碍,研究了突破这些障碍的政策路径。     

点燃式发动机点火能量对火核生成和初期发展的影响

摘要本文研究了点燃式发动机点火能量对火核生成和初期发展的影响.发现增加点火时的击穿能量,可使火核的初始尺寸有效地增加,从而加快火焰的形成和初期发展,并且可以燃烧更为稀薄的混合气,而仅仅增加电容和电感放电阶段的点火能量却没有显著的效果.     

Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model

China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different energy development scenarios on western China economy. A reference scenario and several different west to east energy transfer scenarios with and without consideration of the water constraints and the endogenous technology learning are presented. The modeling describes the energy consumption, carbon emissions, water consumption, energy investment cost, and the impact on western China GDP of the different scenarios through the year 2050. These results have implications on sustainable energy development policies and sustainable west to east energy transfer strategies.     

能源补贴的类型、效果和策略

为了扶持尚处于弱势地位的新的能源生产类型和新消费方式,为了帮助承担过重社会责任的企业,有时为了减轻消费者的负担等,往往以国家财政对能源生产、消费进行补贴。恰当的补贴可促进能源生产的创新,引导节能环保的能源消费方式,但过多过长时间的补贴会削弱企业的竞争力。有时为了争抢补贴一哄而上会造成产业畸形发展,使政府和企业陷入被动和困境。对能源消费的多种补贴如长期持续并不断增大,不但不利于节能,还将造成日趋增大的政府赤字,最终影响经济发展和社会稳定。建议能源补贴应向科技研发倾斜、向各类开拓创新的新领域倾斜,对领取补贴的能源生产要以最终商品量考核。补贴量不宜过大、时间不应过长,尽量减少现金补贴、多用减税减负等方法创造更好的经营环境。总之,补贴是一种政府干预市场的行为,应该慎重从事。政府要考虑的不仅是该不该补贴,还要注意补贴的方式、力度、时间以及防止权力寻租和企业骗补等问题。     

我国新能源产业国际分工中的地位及提升对策

近年来,我国新能源产业发展速度位居世界前列,国际市场份额不断扩大,但依然是利用成本比较优势,以加工贸易为主,集中进入产业链中游的加工制造环节.在全球新能源产业分工中,发达国家始终享受着行业核心技术和终端产品应用所带来的创新收益和环境收益.而我国在新能源产业国际分工体系中的接入点仍然落在了能耗高、环境影响大、劳动力相对密集的制造环节,未能从根本上改变参与国际分工的方式,现阶段我国新能源产业的国际竞争力仍主要表现在价格和规模优势上.这除了产业发展路径依赖的原因外,也与政府和企业发展战略性新兴产业“急功近利”的思路不无关系.阻碍我国新能源产业国际分工地位改善和提升的主因在于产业创新机制不健全、国内市场容量小等产业发展的深层问题.同时,产业过度依赖外需,贸易摩擦和国际市场需求下降也导致我国企业经营困难.为提升我国新能源产业的国际分工地位,建议我国要调整新能源对外贸易与投资政策的思路,强化对新能源技术研发环节的政策支持,提高新能源企业的自主创新能力;充分利用全球资源,加大先进技术和创新人才引进力度;加快转变对外贸易发展方式,摈弃粗放型的增长方式,积极开拓新兴市场;促进资本的双向流动;培育新能源国际化龙头企业;完善新能源贸易与投资的服务保障体系;积极参与多边贸易谈判,改善贸易环境.     

Increasing synergies between institutions and technology developers: Lessons from marine energy

This paper describes innovation activities in the marine energy sector across ten European countries in 2011. Intense knowledge creation occurred in the UK and northern European countries, while European research networks encouraged public–private partnerships facilitating knowledge diffusion. An analysis based on a technological innovation system (TIS) has identified challenges for the system to evolve from one phase of development to another, i.e. from pre-development to take-off phase. In order for marine energy to pass successfully through the commercialisation ‘valley of death’, entrepreneurial experimentation and production is crucial. Entrepreneurial initiatives were developed mainly in the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway and Ireland, whereas France, Germany and Sweden were active through venture capital initiatives. Additional system-builders, such as the authorities in charge of energy policies, could offer guidance for research, ensure legitimacy and effectively mobilise resources for system development. Although public support was efficient in stimulating private investment, national targets seemed less efficient in creating a long time horizon for private investors, due to consecutive, unexpected changes. In contrast, positive interactions between technology developers and policy-makers could empower market formation. Ultimately, the creation of a policy community, also involving local communities, could foster a positive environment for the development of innovation activities.     

炼铁系统的物质流和能量的(火用)分析

阐述了钢铁工业特别是炼铁系统开展分析的意义,并建立了工序的分析模型。应用该模型,分析了铁前各工序(烧结、球团、炼铁工序)的效率、损失,指出了铁前工序的节能方向和途径。     

加入WTO对我国能源工业投融资体制影响及应当研究的问题

随着中国加入世贸组织,我国能源工业投融资体制将发生深刻变化,资源的配置将更多地取决于市场机制。文章阐述入世对我国能源工业投融资体制的影响以及我国能源工业投融资体制需要研究的问题。     

用能效的观点比较中美不同的智能电网投资策略

本文对比了中、美两国智能电网在投资方向、投资规模、投资方式等方面的不同策略,用能效的观点揭示了发电-输配电-用电不同环节在节能减排效益空间方面的差异,最后提出了政策建议。     

冷热电联产系统对CO2排放影响的分析研究

定量描述了燃煤冷热电联产系统降排CO2特性条件,对影响联产系统CO2排放的一些因素作了具体分析,提出以冷热电联产系统CO2降排率作为联产系统环境影响新的评价指标。结合国内实际情况,阐明在目前情况下发展冷热电联产是减少温室气体排放量的有效措施之一,是实现可持续发展目标的有效保障。     

Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional “bottom-up” partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO₂, NO_x) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO_x removal, and CO₂ scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO₂ over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO₂ mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control.