Regional energy resource development and energy security under CO2 emission constraint in the greater Mekong sub-region countries (GMS)

The paper evaluates effects of energy resource development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) on energy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment during 2000–2035. A MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries was developed to examine benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. The study found that an unrestricted energy resource development and trade within the region would reduce the total-regional energy systems cost by 18% and would abate the total CO₂ emission by 5% as compared to the base case. All the five countries except Myanmar would benefit from the expansion of regional energy resource integration in terms of lower energy systems costs and better environmental qualities. An imposition of CO₂ emission reduction constraint by 5% on each of the study countries from that of the corresponding emissions under the unrestricted energy resource development in the GMS is found to improve energy security, reduce energy import and fossil fuels dependences and increase volume of power trade within the region. The total energy system cost under the joint CO₂ emission reduction strategy would be less costly than that under the individual emission targets set for each country.     

Sustainable electricity generation fuel mix analysis using an integration of multicriteria decision-making and system dynamic approach

To achieve a national energy access target of 90% urban and 51% rural by 2035, combat climate change, and diversify the energy sector in the country, the Zambian government is planning to integrate other renewable energy resources (RESs) such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal into the existing hydro generation–based power system. However, to achieve such targets, it is essential for the government to identify suitable combination of the RESs (electricity generation fuel mix) that can provide the greatest sustainability benefit to the country. In this paper, a multicriteria decision-making framework based on analytic hierarchy process and system dynamics techniques is proposed to evaluate and identify the best electricity generation fuel mix for Zambia. The renewable energy generation technologies considered include wind, solar photovoltaic, biomass, and hydropower. The criteria used are categorized as technical, economic, environmental, social, and political. The proposed approach was applied to rank the electricity generation fuel mix based on nine sustainability aspects: land use, CO₂ emissions, job creation, policy promotion affordability, subsidy cost, air pollution reduction, RES electricity production, RES cumulative capacity, and RES initial capital cost. The results indicate that based on availability of RESs and sustainability aspects, in overall, the best future electricity generation mix option for Zambia is scenario with higher hydropower (40%) penetration, wind (30%), solar (20%), and lower biomass (10%) penetration in the overall electricity generation fuel mix, which is mainly due to environmental issues and availability of primary energy resources. The results further indicate that solar ranks first in most of the scenarios even after the penetration weights of RES are adjusted in the sensitivity analysis. The wind was ranked second in most of the scenarios followed by hydropower and last was biomass. These developed electricity generation fuel mix pathways would enable the country meeting the future electricity generation needs target at minimized environmental and social impacts by 2035. Therefore, this study is essential to assist in policy and decision making including planning at strategic level for sustainable energy diversification.     

欧洲能源消费构成变化的启示

30余年来欧洲一次能源消费构成有了重大变化,石油、煤炭比例大幅度降低,天然气大幅度上升,核电明显上升。这些变化主要在上世纪末完成,且不同国家间有适合各自国情的差别。能源构成的优化促进了能源安全和环保,但天然气的大量进口也带来若干负面影响。受此启发,我国在能源构成优化中应强调适合自己的国情。从全国看应发展洁净煤炭,大力节油,能源构成应以煤、油、气、核电和水电等基础能源为主体,多种可再生能源和新能源为补充;从各地区看应强调因地制宜。     

The application potential of hydro power

Water is the only renewable energy source that has been exploited by man on a large scale and that has a well-developed technological base to support its continued exploitation. At present about 23% of the world's electricity supply is from hydro plants. Since all the new energy sources under development are mainly exploitable through electricity generation, it seems likely that the world will have to move increasingly to an electricity-based energy regime.To make an effective contribution to new energy supply patterns. hydro power could be exploited by the development of small generating units to meet local community needs, by the use of pumped storage to optimize operation of other energy sources, and by the development of the many remaining sites in remote areas and third world countries with high power potential including perhaps glacier-derived power. This last development could spawn a new energy trade which would require a transfer of manufacturing resources to the countries with hydro power.Political decisions and economic considerations will influence these developments. An effective electric power trade between countries requires an acceptable international code of practice. Ultimately the speed of development of these resources will depend upon the cost of energy delivered to the consumer compared with the cost of other energy sources closer to the load centre.     

中外非化石能源统计分析的启示

通过对世界主要国家一次能源供应构成的分析,发达国家基本上都完成了第一次和第二次能源大转换,已不存在生物质能的传统利用,煤炭占一次能源消费的比重已大大下降,石油和天然气的比重有了很大提高。核电、水电、生物质能已成为发达国家非化石能源的主体,但随着资源的日渐枯竭,今后的方向是发展风电、太阳能发电等新能源。发展中国家尚未完成第一次和第二次能源大转换,在一次能源构成中石油、天然气的比重还较低,核电、水电和生物质能的开发还有很大潜力可以发掘。因此,发达国家和发展中国家的能源发展战略是不同的,前者主要发展风电、太阳能发电,而后者应发展核电、水电和生物质能。我国提出逐步提高非化石能源的比重,完全符合我国目前能源工业的现状。我国非化石能源占一次能源消费总量的比重有不同的计算口径,应明确非化石能源的统计口径,对非化石能源进行全面统计。为了完成我国2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,应尽快把落后的能源工业改造为现代能源产业,加快完成第一次、第二次能源大转换,同时应大力鼓励增加电力进口。     

水电开发在我国能源战略中的地位浅析

水电是可再生能源,水电开发在国民经济和社会发展中具有重要的地位和作用,世界上绝大多数国家都是优先发展水电。我国是世界水能资源最为丰富的国家,但目前开发利用率仅为27%。本文在对水电开发现状和能源结构进行分析的基础上,得出大力发展水电既是我国能源战略的必然选择,也是我国可持续发展的选择,并对水电今后如何发展提出了建议。     

基于能源可持续发展的水能资产流失及对策探析

在能源缺失的大环境下,从能源可持续发展的战略角度分析了水电在能源结构中的主导地位,进而从陈旧的资源价值观念、产权制度不合理、资产管理意识和价值核算体系的缺乏、传统电力体制制约及开发利用不合理等方面对水能资产流失程度及成因进行论证.从提高水能资产保护和利用意识、完善水能资产管理及核算体系、积极推进电力体制改革、加强环境保护并推进相关政策法规的建立、引入市场机制、拓宽融资渠道等方面提出了解决方案.     

A modeling approach for investigating climate change impacts on renewable energy utilization

In this study, an integrated community‐scale energy model (ICEM) was developed for supporting renewable energy management (REM) systems planning with the consideration of changing climatic conditions. Through quantitatively reflecting interactive relationships among various renewable energy resources under climate change, not only the impacts of climate change on each individual renewable energy but also the combined effects on power‐generation sector from renewable energy resources could be incorporated within a general modeling framework. Also, discrete probability levels associated with various climate change impacts on the REM system could be generated. Moreover, the ICEM could facilitate capacity–expansion planning for energy‐production facilities within a multi‐period and multi‐option context in order to reduce energy‐shortage risks under a number of climate change scenarios. The generated solutions can be used for examining various decision options that are associated with different probability levels when availabilities of renewable energy resources are affected by the changing climatic conditions. A series of probability levels of hydropower‐, wind‐ and solar‐energy availabilities can be integrated into the optimization process. The developed method has been applied to a case of long‐term REM planning for three communities. The generated solutions can provide desired energy resource/service allocation and capacity–expansion plans with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security. Tradeoffs between system costs, renewable energy availabilities and energy‐shortage risks can also be tackled with the consideration of climate change, which would have both positive and negative impacts on the system cost, energy supply and greenhouse‐gas emission. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于水电站大坝的太阳能融合型并网发电系统研究与应用

针对双可再生能源融合发电模式的诸多技术难题,提出了一种在水电站大坝上建设太阳能电站并进行融合发电的创新模式,重点突破了水电与太阳能发电共享型控制技术、光伏逆变谐波抑制技术、无功补偿和共享型直流技术等技术难题。水电和太阳能发电共享型控制技术实现了水电现地控制单元、太阳能现地控制单元、共享型公用现地控制单元的分布式构架;实现了光伏对水电的逆变谐波抑制和无功补偿装置的研发;实现了太阳直流技术补偿水电站直流系统。应用实践表明,太阳能与水能融合发电模式可节约投资、增加无功补偿效益、减少国土资源的占用,是双可再生能源融合发电的创新性应用,具有很好的推广价值。     

Impacts of wind power generation and CO2 emission constraints on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of wind power generation on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam. The study covers a time frame of 20 yr from 2005 to 2025 and the MARKAL model has been chosen to be adaptable to this specific task. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from wind is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. In order to make wind energy competitive, either carbon tax or an emission reduction target on the system must be imposed. The presence of wind power would affect not only the change in generation mix from coal-based power plants to wind turbines but also an increase in the capacity of other technologies which emit less carbon dioxide. It thus helps reduce fossil fuel requirement and consequently enhances energy security for the country. The study also shows that wind turbine in Vietnam could be a potential CDM project for annex I party countries.     

Optimal installation of small hydropower plant—A review

Most of the countries have access to large amounts of water through rivers and canal. With this renewable resource, electricity can be generated without polluting the environment. Because of the increasing in electricity demand, it is important to estimate the future potential of hydropower. It would then be possible to plan development through mix of energy and implement measures to control the development of the electricity market by the use of sustainable small hydropower projects.In the present paper attempt has been made to review the different types of model developed to evaluate the cost of the small hydropower projects. A review on the different types of correlations developed by earlier investigators has also been presented. The present review attempts to cover the benefits such as clean development mechanism (CDM), internal rate of return (IRR) for financial viability of such projects. A review on the different types of optimization techniques is also been presented to minimize the cost of the installation of SHP projects.     

Hydropower in Turkey for a clean and sustainable energy future

Over the last two decades, global electricity production has more than doubled and electricity demand is rising rapidly around the world as economic development spreads to emerging economies. Not only has electricity demand increased significantly, it is the fastest growing end-use of energy. Therefore, technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. This paper deals with policies to meet increasing energy and electricity demand for sustainable energy development in Turkey. Turkey has a total gross hydropower potential of 433 GWh/year, but only 125 GWh/year of the total hydroelectric potential of Turkey can be economically used. By the commissioning of new hydropower plants, which are under construction, 36% of the economically usable potential of the country would be tapped. Turkey's total economically usable small hydropower potential is 3.75 GWh/year.     

Hydropower for sustainable water and energy development

Turkey has a total gross hydropower potential of 433 GWh/year, but only 125 GWh/year of the total hydroelectric potential of Turkey can be economically used. By the commissioning of new hydropower plants, which are under construction, 36% of the economically usable potential of the country would be tapped. Turkey presently has considerable renewable energy sources. The most important renewable sources are hydropower, biomass, geothermal, solar and wind. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. Over the last two decades, global electricity production has more than doubled and electricity demand is rising rapidly around the world as economic development spreads to emerging economies. Not only has electricity demand increased significantly, it is the fastest growing end-use of energy. Therefore, technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries.     

Interconnections in central Europe and Switzerland

Despite not being an EU member, Switzerland is fully integrated in UCPTE activities and has an observer status in the European electric bodies that worked out principal suggestions for handling cross-border and transit exchanges, Switzerland is intensively interconnected at the center of the European power system both in terms of tie-line capacity and cross-border trade. The dominating influence of seasonal variations of hydrological circumstances on Swiss generation, 60% of which is hydropower, is the driving force for power exchanges with its neighboring countries, where mainly thermal power stations are installed. This cross-border trade makes use of the complementary properties of the power generation structures and has substantial mutual benefits. This was the reason why Switzerland became the crystallization point for the interconnection of the European power systems in Laufenburg, when up-to-date major coordination functions are performed at the international level for UCPTE and at the national level for the Swiss transmission system operators     

我国可再生能源发展对策

可再生能源的开发利用是应对气候变化和满足能源需求持续增长的最现实的举措。2009年我国风电和太阳能光伏发电保持了快速发展势头,其中风电装机容量估计达到约2200×104kW,但非化石能源消费量在能源消费总量中所占的比重仍然很低。2009年,我国能源消费总量约为31×108t标煤,其中水电、核电、风电等商品化非化石能源消费量约为2.3×108t标煤,约占能源消费总量的7.4%。要完成到2020年我国非化石能源在能源消费总量中所占比例达到15%的目标,任务非常艰巨。加快开发利用可再生能源是能源发展的重要任务之一,到2020年,可再生能源开发利用总量将在2008年的基础上增加2倍以上。我国目前和今后10多年时间内,可再生能源发展的重点是水电、风电、太阳能和生物质能。加快发展我国可再生能源的举措有:①继续做好水电建设工作,促进水电持续健康发展;②有序推进风电的规模化发展,显著提高风电在电力结构中的比重;③加快推广太阳能利用技术,扩大太阳能开发利用规模;④因地制宜开发利用生物质能,提高生物质能利用的现代技术水平。     

Methodology to estimate the economic,emissions, and energy benefits from combined heat and power systems based on system component efficiencies

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the economic, emissions, and energy benefits that could be obtained from a base loaded CHP system using screening parameters and system component efficiencies. On the basis of the location of the system and the facility power to heat ratio, the power that must be supplied by a base loaded CHP system in order to potentially achieve cost, emissions, or primary energy savings can be estimated. A base loaded CHP system is analyzed in nine US cities in different climate zones, which differ in both the local electricity generation fuel mix and local electricity prices. Its potential to produce economic, emissions, and energy savings is quantified on the basis of the minimum fraction of the useful heat to the heat recovered by the CHP system (φ_min). The values for φ_min are determined for each location in terms of cost, emissions, and energy. Results indicate that in terms of cost, four of the nine evaluated cities (Houston, San Francisco, Boulder, and Duluth) do not need to use any of the heat recovered by the CHP system to potentially generate cost savings. On the other hand, in cities such as Seattle, around 86% of the recovered heat needs to be used to potentially provide cost savings. In terms of emissions, only Chicago, Boulder, and Duluth are able to reduce emissions without using any of the recovered heat. In terms of primary energy consumption, only Chicago and Duluth do not require the use of any of the recovered heat to yield primary energy savings. For the rest of the evaluated cities, some of the recovered heat must be used in order to reduce the primary energy consumption with respect to the reference case. In addition, the effect of the efficiency of the power generation unit and the facility power to heat ratio on the potential of the CHP system to reduce cost, emissions, and primary energy is investigated, and a graphical method is presented for examining the trade‐offs between power to heat ratio, base loading fraction, percentage of recovered heat used, and minimum ratios for cost, emissions, and primary energy. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

21世纪中国水电发展战略探讨

对我国水电资源及水电开发现状做了深入分析，对全面贯彻国家电力建设方针提出了三点建议：重点发展电网，协调发展电源；调整电源结构，优先发展水电；调整水电结构。就21世纪加快我国水电发展提出了四条措施：加强前期工作；完善水电的滚动开发机制；降低成本，提高效益；争取国家的政策支持。     

煤电关乎中国能源安全刍议

我国一次能源消费结构中煤炭的比重高达70％,我国的电力结构中煤电的比重高达80％.对于中国的能源问题,一直以来认为煤炭在一次能源和电力结构中所占比例过大,为此正在大力发展水电、核电、风电、太阳能发电,以降低煤电的比例,但收效甚微.我国煤炭在一次能源消费结构中的比例,1978年为70.7％,到2010年为70.9％;煤电在全国发电量中的比例,1978年为82.6％,2010年为80.8％.中国的能源安全必须实现能源独立,不能依赖国际市场,为此在未来很长时间内我国的能源安全应立足于煤炭.因此中国应下决心推行一次能源结构以煤为主、电力结构以煤电为主的能源战略,这是基于我国煤炭资源比石油、天然气丰富;我国2010年煤炭产量占全球48％,煤炭进口依存度仅为4.3％;国际煤炭市场价格比石油、天然气低许多所确定的.美国将94％的煤炭用于发电,我国目前还只有50％左右用于发电,因此建议应该继续提高煤炭用于发电的比例.     

Energy diversification in Finland: achievements and potential of renewable energy development

Finland was an early adopter of several alternative energy technologies, particularly in biomass and hydropower energy for many years. The main policy in the Finnish energy and climate sectors is to increase the exploitation of renewable energy sources while reducing CO₂ emissions. Meanwhile, a successful energy policy should achieve three conflicting objectives: clean, cheap, and secure energy. The development of renewables in Finland has lagged that of other EU countries, particularly in fields such as wind power in recent years. This article discusses about the history, current status, and potentials of the major renewable and local energy in order of utilisation in Finland. It is seen that the major contributors to replacing carbon-based fuels are likely to be biomass and wind power, with geothermal and solar energy sources to play a lesser role.     

Electricity from biomass in the European union—With or without biomass import

The European Union has set up indicative targets for its 15 Member States to supply 22.1% of their total electricity consumption using renewable energy resources by 2010. This paper compares two ways to achieve target compliance—either with import of biomass from countries outside the EU or without. The ADMIRE REBUS model combines cost data for electricity producing renewable energy technologies with data on the renewable energy resources available in EU and assesses the effect of the various national support policies for green electricity in the EU countries. The major finding of the study is that increased imports of low-cost biomass will significantly reduce the cost of target compliance, but would hamper the use of energy crops and further development of wind power within the EU. Despite this, increased importation of biomass can be the cost-reducing factor making the target realisable, which would justify promotion of such trade.