Impact of energy efficiency gains on output and energy use with Cobb–Douglas production function

A special issue of Energy Policy—28 (2000)—was devoted to a collection of papers, edited by Dr. Lee Schipper. The collection included a paper entitled “A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and Khazzoom–Brookes” in which it was argued that the impact of fuel efficiency gains on output (roughly, GDP) is likely to be relatively small by Cobb–Douglas production function. However, an error in the analysis leads to under-estimation of the long-term impact. This paper first provides a partial equilibrium analysis by an alternative method for the same case and then proceeds to an analysis on the issue in a two-sector general equilibrium system. In the latter analysis, energy price is internalized. Both energy use efficiency and energy production efficiency are involved.     

The effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s energy use and CO2 emissions: a CGE model-based analysis

With its rapid economic growth, China is now confronted with soaring pressure from both its energy supply and the environment. To deal with this conflict, energy end-use efficiency improvement is now promoted by the government as an emphasis for future energy saving. This study explores the general equilibrium effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s economy, energy use, and CO₂ emissions. This paper develops a static, multisector computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for China, with specific detail in energy use and with the embodiment of energy efficiency. In order to explore the ability of subsidizing non-fossil-generated electricity on moderating potential rebound effects, in this model, the electricity sector was deconstructed into five specific generation activities using bottom–up data from the Chinese electricity industry. The model is calibrated into a 16-sector Chinese Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2002. In the analysis, seven scenarios were established: business as usual, solely efficiency improvement, and five policy scenarios (taxing carbon, subsidized hydropower, subsidized nuclear power, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized hydropower, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized nuclear power). Results show that a sectoral-uniform improvement of energy end-use efficiency will increase rather than decrease the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The sensitivity analysis of sectoral efficiency improvement shows that efficiency improvements happened in different sectors may have obvious different extents of rebound. The three sectors, whose efficient improvements do not drive-up total national energy use and CO₂ emissions, include Iron and Steel, Building Materials, and Construction. Thus, the improvement of energy end-use efficiency should be sectoral specific. When differentiating the sectoral energy-saving goal, not only the saving potential of each sector but also its potential to ease the total rebound should be taken into account. Moreover, since the potential efficiency improvement for a sector over a certain period will be limited, technology measures should work along with a specific policy to neutralize the rebound effect. Results of policy analysis show that one relatively enhanced way is to combine carbon taxing with subsidized hydropower.     

Regional energy rebound effect: The impact of economy-wide and sector level energy efficiency improvement in Georgia,USA

Rebound effect is defined as the lost part of ceteris paribus energy savings from improvements on energy efficiency. In this paper, we investigate economy-wide energy rebound effects by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Georgia, USA. The model adopts a highly disaggregated sector profile and highlights the substitution possibilities between different energy sources in the production structure. These two features allow us to better characterize the change in energy use in face of an efficiency shock, and to explore in detail how a sector-level shock propagates throughout the economic structure to generate aggregate impacts. We find that with economy-wide energy efficiency improvement on the production side, economy-wide rebound is moderate. Energy price levels fall very slightly, yet sectors respond to these changing prices quite differently in terms of local production and demand. Energy efficiency improvements in particular sectors (epicenters) induce quite different economy-wide impacts. In general, we expect large rebound if the epicenter sector is an energy production sector, a direct upstream/downstream sector of energy production sectors, a transportation sector or a sector with high production elasticity. Our analysis offers valuable insights for policy makers aiming to achieve energy conservation through increasing energy efficiency.     

The rebound effect on road freight transport: Empirical evidence from Portugal

Because a large proportion of total operating costs for transportation companies goes towards energy, a reduction in energy operating costs, brought about by an increase in fleet fuel efficiency, or an increase in operational efficiency, results in a change in the relative cost of road freight transportation. This fact could result in an increase in the demand for such services. If this is true, the result would be an increase in total fuel consumption. Consequently, that part of the energy savings obtained through the increased energy efficiency would be lost. The existence of a “Rebound Effect” is especially important in the road freight transportation sector and is crucial for the definition of a national energy policy.     

Rebound effect in Chinese household energy efficiency and solution for mitigating it

The current efforts and technologies on energy efficiency seem unable to hold back the increasing momentum of the household energy consumption per unit of China, which has been on the increase since 2000. Usually, this phenomenon is simply attributed to the demand for more comfortable household lifestyle due to the current rapid economic development of China. However, the latent cause—rebound effect has long been ignored in the household energy efficiency of China, while it has been analyzed deeply and recognized widely all over the world. This article studies the rebound effect in the household energy efficiency of China and its related negative influence on the energy demand. A high rebound effect of at least 30% in the household energy efficiency of China is presumed by reference to the rebound effects of other countries. Finally, five feasible ways are summarized to mitigate the rebound effect and their values are analyzed respectively: (1) develop renewable energy resources, (2) increase energy prices, (3) improve energy efficiency, (4) build rational energy prices system, and (5) improve consumer behavior.     

The role of the power/efficiency misconception in the rebound effect's size debate: Does efficiency actually lead to a power enhancement?

This paper addresses the question of whether the rebound effect's size is bigger or smaller than one. After a brief review of the related economic literature, a thermodynamic perspective tackles this topic by demonstrating that the dispute over the size of the rebound effect relies on a misconception of the thermodynamic nature of energy efficiency. The dichotomy, in fact, concerns the relationship between efficiency and power output rather than the scale of the economic side effects generated by energy efficiency mutations. Early intuitions of the dichotomy efficiency/power belong to the pioneering works of Stanley Jevons, in the field of economics, and Alfred Lotka in that of biology. Their findings are here approached using the basis of finite-time thermodynamics with a simple amendment, the addition of the time variable to the Carnot machinery. The model shows how a process of power maximization always leads to a sub-optimal efficiency level and additionally, that any efficiency improvement, in the context of low energy costs, will shift the power output of the machine instead of reducing energy consumption. A case study taken from the transport system is presented to elucidate this argument.     

The impact of energy prices on energy consumption and energy efficiency: evidence from Taiwan

This study aims to explore the impact of energy prices on energy consumption and energy efficiency using industry data for Taiwan over the period of 1982–2011. A frontier-based framework is proposed with a microeconomic foundation to measure energy efficiency and decompose energy consumption into energy utilization and energy wastage in the short and the long run. We learn that the traditional energy efficiency indicators are essentially ambiguous measures. In contrast, the frontier-based framework can focus the measure on energy relatively specifically and capture the essence of a proper efficiency measure more precisely. The empirical analyses reveal that the values of short- and long-run energy efficiency in the Taiwan manufacturing sector are on average 0.6016 and 0.8040, respectively. Moreover, energy utilization is price inelastic in the short run, but in the long run, it is elastic at ?0.79. The energy price elasticity of energy wastage in the short run is ?0.61, which is somewhat higher than the ?0.52 in the long run. The energy price elasticity of energy efficiency in the short run is 0.077 and that in the long run is 0.144. All the energy price elasticities obtained using the frontier-based framework are lower than those obtained using the common framework of the past without distinguishing the heteroscedasticity between the energy utilization and energy wastage.     

Potential benefits from improved energy efficiency of key electrical products: The case of India

The economy of the world's second most populous country continues to grow rapidly, bringing prosperity to a growing middle class while further straining an energy infrastructure already stretched beyond capacity. At the same time, efficiency policy initiatives have gained a foothold in India, and promise to grow in number over the coming years. This paper considers the maximum cost-effective potential of efficiency improvement for key energy-consuming products in the Indian context. The products considered are: household refrigerators, window air conditioners, motors and distribution transformers. Together, these products account for about 27% of delivered electricity consumption in India. The analysis estimates the minimum Life-Cycle Cost option for each product class, according to use patterns and prevailing customer marginal rates in each sector. This option represents an efficiency improvement ranging between 12% and 60%, depending on product class. If this level of efficiency was achieved starting in 2010, we estimate that total electricity consumption in India could be reduced by 4.7% by 2020, saving over 74 million tons of oil equivalent and over 246 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Net present financial savings of this efficiency improvement totals 8.1 billion dollars.     

The effects of home energy efficiency upgrades on social housing tenants: evidence from Ireland

This research examines some of the multiple benefits of a home energy efficiency upgrade programme for social housing tenants. Employing a quasi-experimental approach, we examine a range of objectively measured and self-reported outcomes, including metered gas consumption, for a control and upgrade group, before and after the upgrade. We drew our sample from a large home energy efficiency programme in Ireland, The SEAI Better Energy Communities Scheme, which provides funding for whole communities to upgrade the efficiency of their dwellings. Dwellings were selected for upgrade based on need, allowing us to control for observable dwelling characteristics correlated with selection into the trial. The upgrades undertaken were extensive relative to the average home energy improvement, with many dwellings receiving a number of measures. Households reported improvements across a range of outcomes associated with heating-related deprivation and comfort in the home. We use panel regression models to estimate the elasticity of gas demand with respect to the thermal efficiency of the dwellings. Overall, we find that use of natural gas fell much less than 1:1 for each increment to thermal efficiency of the home. For the average household in this study, about one third of the marginal increase in thermal efficiency was reflected in reduced gas demand. This result highlights issues with standard engineering models which are commonly used to assess the energy efficiency of dwellings and points to a behavioural response from households, potentially taking back some of the savings as increased internal temperatures.     

Linking energy efficiency and innovation practices: Empirical evidence from the foundry sector

The Europe 2020 strategy currently promotes energy efficiency and innovation through disconnected targets focusing on either energy or R&D. Similar policies indicate that in practice, these two concepts are usually perceived as mutually exclusive. Furthermore, evidence in the literature regarding the relationship between R&D and energy efficiency is still highly limited. This exploratory study aims to address this gap by investigating the link between innovation practices and energy efficiency through a multiple case study of 30 foundries in Northern Italy. We analysed the firms' innovativeness, measured by internal R&D and Open Innovation practices (inbound and outbound), and energy efficiency, measured by specific energy consumption, level of adoption of energy-efficient technologies and barriers to energy efficiency. The results seem to show that those foundries complementing internal R&D with inbound practices have a higher level of energy efficiency, a higher level of adoption of available technologies, and a lower perception of barriers to efficiency improvements. This finding suggests that diversifying innovation practices could lead to better performance with respect to all three indicators of energy efficiency analysed. This study contributes to understanding how more innovative firms can be more energy efficient, providing interesting highlights for managers and policymakers.     

Drivers for energy efficiency and their effect on barriers: empirical evidence from Italian manufacturing enterprises

Industrial activities are responsible for a significant share of both global delivered energy demand and CO₂ emissions. Hence, a widespread adoption of energy-efficient technologies and practices represents a crucial means for sustainable production. Adopting a novel framework of drivers for energy efficiency describing the effect of drivers on barriers in the decision-making process steps and able to account for the nature of drivers and the stakeholders responsible for their promotion, we have performed an exploratory investigation into 61 manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises in Northern Italy. Our findings have highlighted the importance of information and economic drivers, showing the need for enterprises to be supported not only by public institutions but also by external stakeholders involved in the supply of energy-efficient technologies and practices such as industrial associations and groupings, as well as service and technology suppliers. Moreover, our study has highlighted an almost equal relevance of both internal and external drivers. According to our findings, the increase of awareness—generating the interest to energy issues and stimulated both by external and internal stakeholders—as well as financial issues have emerged as the most critical in the decision-making process to adopt an energy-efficient measure. A preliminary comprehension of the mechanisms relating drivers to barriers in the decision-making process brought additional value to the study, highlighting the most effective and specific means to overcome the existing barriers. We have also explored the effect of several firm characteristics, such as firm size and energy intensity offering suggestions for industrial decision-makers as well as policy-makers.     

Engineering estimates versus impact evaluation of energy efficiency projects: Regression discontinuity evidence from a case study

Energy efficiency upgrades have been gaining widespread attention across global channels as a cost-effective approach to addressing energy challenges. The cost-effectiveness of these projects is generally predicted using engineering estimates pre-implementation, often with little ex post analysis of project success. In this paper, for a suite of energy efficiency projects, we directly compare ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings to ex post econometric estimates that use 15-min interval, building-level energy consumption data. In contrast to most prior literature, our econometric results confirm the engineering estimates, even suggesting the engineering estimates were too modest. Further, we find heterogeneous efficiency impacts by time of day, suggesting select efficiency projects can be useful in reducing peak load.     

The appeal of the green deal: Empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners

The Green Deal is a major new energy policy designed to support the diffusion of energy efficiency measures in UK homes. This paper provides one of the first empirical examinations of the Green Deal′s success in influencing homeowners’ renovation decisions. Using a repeated measures design in which households were questioned before and after the Green Deal′s launch in January 2013, we assess the policy′s success in raising awareness of energy efficiency. In particular, we test the effectiveness of the Green Deal′s positioning to overcome barriers to renovation among homeowners already interested in or considering energy efficiency measures. Using the innovation decision process (Rogers, 2003) as a conceptual framing of the renovation decision process, we examine whether new information on energy efficiency provided by the Green Deal strengthened intentions and its antecedents. We find that (1) energy efficiency is of potential appeal to all renovators regardless of their attitudes about energy efficiency, (2) energy efficiency opportunities need to be identified in the early stages of renovation when homeowners are thinking about ways to improve their home, and (3) homeowners’ intentions towards energy efficiency are weakened by uncertainty about financial benefits, helping to explain the relatively slow uptake of the Green Deal to-date.     

Decision on optimal building energy efficiency standard in China—The case for Tianjin

This paper investigates the optimal choice of building energy efficiency (BEE) standard in the context of centralised urban district heating system in northern China. By employing a techno-economic analysis approach, we demonstrate that the current BEE standard implemented in the Chinese cities should be tightened further in order to achieve a socially optimal level. Without considering the externality costs associated with carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, current BEE standards need to be upgraded to the equivalent level of French RT2005 standard coupled with a properly designed district coal-fired Combined Heat and Power (CHP). In contrast, the equivalent efficiency standard of Swedish building code is preferably to be implemented in the case of explicit carbon emission restriction as long as the marginal cost of carbon emission (carbon price) is sufficiently high. The fuel-switching policy (from coal to natural gas) in the urban district heating system would result in significant increase in overall costs if the BEE upgrade is not taken into account simultaneously. It is also found that BEE improvements in northern Chinese cities are more cost-effective than investing in low-carbon technologies such as wind power or Carbon Capture and storage in the EU and US with regard to CO₂ emissions mitigation.     

Red light for Green Paper: The EU policy on energy efficiency

The EU Green Paper on energy efficiency calls for action to decrease energy use and thus achieve increased competitiveness, fulfil the environmental targets and increase security of supply. In this comment, we examine the role the EU Commission suggest that energy efficiency, and policies supporting energy efficiency, takes. The policies and the suggestions are qualitatively elaborated upon in the light of the goal of a common European electricity market. We suggest that the rationales for the energy efficiency measures are weak, and that the suggested goals of increased competitiveness, environmental targets, and security of supply are best reached with the direct measures especially designed for each goal. Some of the energy efficiency measures may counter-act other direct policies. Further, The Green Paper measures may prove detrimental to the European Electricity market insofar as the policies suggested could lead to a policy fatigue among the electricity consumers.     

The relationship between energy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from 66 countries

In this study, we use dynamic panel data models to examine the impact of electricity and non-electricity variables on economic growth for a global panel consisting of 66 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1986–2005 inclusive. We also estimate this relationship for four regional panels; namely, East/South Asian and the Pacific region, Europe and Central Asian region, Latin America and Caribbean region, and Sub-Saharan, North Africa and Middle Eastern region. In total, we use six proxies for energy. The empirical analysis is based on a sound theoretical framework, in that we draw on growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of inflation, capital stock, labour force and trade, with energy. Generally, the results on the impact of energy are mixed.     

Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis

This is an empirical study on the causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for 27 European countries in a multivariate panel framework over the period 1997-2007 using a random effect model and including final energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and employment as additional independent variables in the model. Empirical results do not confirm causality between renewable energy consumption and GDP, although panel causality tests unfold short-run relationships between renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions and employment. The estimated cointegration factor refrains from unity, indicating only a weak, if any, relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in Europe, suggesting evidence of the neutrality hypothesis, which can partly be explained by the uneven and insufficient exploitation of renewable energy sources across Europe.     

Industrial energy efficiency: the need for investment decision support from a manager perspective

Global competition, commitment to the Kyoto Protocol and a deregulated, integrated European electricity market will in all probability increase the demand for energy efficiency on the part of companies in Sweden. Investment decisions are an important part of meeting the new demands, because they decide the future efficiency of industrial energy systems. The objective of this study is to investigate, from a managerial perspective, the need to improve decision support in some industries, which can help to facilitate and improve investment decisions concerning energy efficiency. This work has been conducted through in-depth interviews with representatives for a number of energy-intensive companies and non-energy-intensive companies from different sectors. One need that was identified was the improvement of working methods in order to support the decision-making process. Here, external players seem to be playing an increasingly important role. Access to correct information, better follow-up activities, and transparent, understandable calculations are also considered to be important. The study will form the foundation for subsequent work on decision support and energy efficiency in industry.