A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production

Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001, Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.     

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel.     

Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios

A framework is developed for planning the mitigation of the oil shortages that will be caused by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. To estimate potential economic impacts, a reasonable relationship between percent decline in world oil supply and percent decline in world GDP was determined to be roughly 1:1. As a limiting case for decline rates, giant fields were examined. Actual oil production from Europe and North America indicated significant periods of relatively flat oil production (plateaus). However, before entering its plateau period, North American oil production went through a sharp peak and steep decline. Examination of a number of future world oil production forecasts showed multi-year rollover/roll-down periods, which represent pseudoplateaus. Consideration of resource nationalism posits an Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario, which could potentially overwhelm all other considerations. Three scenarios for mitigation planning resulted from this analysis: (1) A Best Case, where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2–5% per year; (2) A Middling Case, where world oil production reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2–5% monotonic annual decline; and finally (3) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporter withholding, leading to world oil shortages growing potentially more rapidly than 2–5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts.     

Future Danish oil and gas export

Denmark possesses only a small share of the exploitation rights to North Sea oil and is a minor producer when compared to Norway and the UK. However, Denmark is still an oil exporter and a very important supplier of oil for certain countries, in particular Sweden.A field-by-field analysis of the Danish oil and gas fields, combined with estimated production contribution from new field developments, enhanced oil recovery and undiscovered fields, provides a future production outlook. The conclusion from this analysis is that by 2030 Denmark will no longer be an oil or gas exporter at all. Our results are also in agreement with the Danish Energy Authority's own forecast, and may be seen as an independent confirmation of their general statements.Decreasing Danish oil production, coupled with a rapid decline in Norway's oil output, will force Sweden to import oil from more distant markets in the future, dramatically reducing Swedish energy security. If no new gas suppliers are introduced to the Swedish grid, then Swedish gas consumption is clearly predestined to crumble alongside declining Danish production. Future hydrocarbon production from Denmark displays a clear link to Sweden's future energy security.     

A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production.In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)).Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur.In particular, by assuming a range of 2250–3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3–32.1 Gb/year.     

European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports

The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited; hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015–2030. The discourse surrounding the EU’s dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.     

Outlook for the international oil market and options for OPEC

A fundamental misinterpretation of post-1970 events in the international oil market has severely curbed oil demand and led to conditions in which much of the world's lowest cost reserves of energy are in danger of remaining unexploited. There is, instead, an increasing use of inherently higher cost sources of energy, so undermining world economic growth prospects. A return to the preferential use of low cost oil (and gas), without further exacerbating already strained North-South relationships, can now only be achieved in the context of a difficult-to-negotiate OPEC-OECD agreement on a long-term development strategy.     

世界石油供应风险对中国石油进口的影响

分析了当前中国石油供应的状况，指出了中国步入世界石油进口大国行列的必然趋势。阐明了世界石油供应市场存在的巨大风险，并引入风险分析方法和概率统计原理对当前世界石油供应市场的潜在风险对中国石油供应安全的影响程度进行了量化分析。     

Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes,reserve growth,decline rates and depletion rates

This review paper summarises and evaluates the evidence regarding four issues that are considered to be of critical importance for future global oil supply. These are: a) how regional and global oil resources are distributed between different sizes of field; b) why estimates of the recoverable resources from individual fields tend to grow over time and the current and likely future contribution of this to global reserve additions; c) how rapidly the production from different categories of field is declining and how this may be expected to change in the future; and d) how rapidly the remaining recoverable resources in a field or region can be produced. It is shown that, despite serious data limitations, the level of knowledge of each of these issues has improved considerably over the past decade. While the evidence on reserve growth appears relatively encouraging for future global oil supply, that on decline and depletion rates does not. Projections of future global oil supply that use assumptions inconsistent with this evidence base are likely to be in error.     

Future oil production in Brazil—Estimates based on a Hubbert model

This paper forecasts oil production in Brazil, according to the Hubbert model and different probabilities for adding reserves. It analyzes why the Hubbert model might be more appropriate to the Brazilian oil industry than that of Hotelling, as it implicitly emphasizes the impacts of information and depletion on the derivative over time of the accumulated discoveries. Brazil's oil production curves indicate production peaks with a time lag of more than 15 years, depending on the certainty (degree of information) associated with the reserves. Reserves with 75% certainty peak at 3.27 Mbpd in 2020, while reserves with 50% certainty peak at 3.28 Mbpd in 2028, and with 30% certainty peak at 3.88 Mbpd in 2036. These findings show that Brazil oil industry is in a stage where the positive impacts of information on expanding reserves (mainly through discoveries) may outstrip the negative impacts of depletion. The still limited number of wells drilled by accumulated discoveries also explain this assertion. Being a characteristic of frontier areas such as Brazil, this indicates the need for ongoing exploratory efforts.     

Biodiesel production from mixed soybean oil and rapeseed oil

The biodiesel (fatty acid methyl esters, FAME) was prepared by transesterification of the mixed oil (soybean oil and rapeseed oil) with sodium hydroxide (NaOH) as catalyst. The effects of mole ratio of methanol to oil, reaction temperature, catalyst amount and reaction time on the yield were studied. In order to decrease the operational temperature, a co-solvent (hexane) was added into the reactants and the conversion efficiency of the reaction was improved. The optimal reaction conditions were obtained by this experiment: methanol/oil mole ratio 5.0:1, reaction temperature 55 °C, catalyst amount 0.8 wt.% and reaction time 2.0 h. Under the optimum conditions, a 94% yield of methyl esters was reached ∼94%. The structure of the biodiesel was characterized by FT-IR spectroscopy. The sulfur content of biodiesel was determined by Inductively Coupled Plasma emission spectrometer (ICP), and the satisfied result was obtained. The properties of obtained biodiesel from mixed oil are close to commercial diesel fuel and is rated as a realistic fuel as an alternative to diesel. Production of biodiesel has positive impact on the utilization of agricultural and forestry products.     

Strategic stockpile acquisitions and the current world oil market

Recent legislation requires that the US government increase the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a rate of 300 000 bbl/day; however, under certain circumstances that rate can be lowered to 220 000 bbl/day. It is speculated that the Administration will opt for the lower rate because of recent trends in the world oil market and in the US economy. This communication argues, however, that a rapid stockpile acquisition rate of at least 300 000 bbl/day is called for. The arguments include the following. While recent trends in the world oil market change the nature of the vulnerability problem, these trends do not necessarily imply that the long-run oil vulnerability problem is less severe. Further, given that there is a need for larger strategic stocks in the long run, the present depressed market conditions suggest that stocks should be accumulated at a rapid rate while these conditions continue.     

Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans.     

An evaluation of enhanced oil recovery strategies for a heavy oil reservoir after cold production with sand

Cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS) is the process of choice for unconsolidated heavy oil reservoirs with relatively high gas content. The key challenge of CHOPS is that the recovery factor tends to be between 5% and 15%, implying that the majority of the oil remains in the ground after the process is rendered uneconomic. Continued cold production (without sands) is not productive for a post‐CHOPS reservoir because of the low oil saturation and depleted reservoir pressure in the wormhole regions. There is a need to develop viable recovery processes for post‐CHOPS reservoirs. Here, different follow‐up processes are examined for a post‐CHOPS heavy oil reservoir. In post‐CHOPS cold water flooding, severe water channeling is ineffective at displacing high viscosity heavy oil. Hot water flooding improves the sweep efficiency and produces more oil compared with cold water flooding. However, the swept region is limited to the domain between the neighboring wormhole networks, and the energy efficiency of the process is relatively poor. Compared with the hot water flooding case, steam flooding achieves higher oil production rates and lower water use. A cyclic steam stimulation strategy achieves the best performance regarding oil production rates and water usage. Based on our results, it is observed that thermally based techniques alone are not capable to recover the oil economically for post‐CHOPS reservoirs. However, it is suggested that techniques with combined use of thermal energy and solvent could potentially yield efficient oil recovery methods for these reservoirs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run.     

蓖麻油制备生物柴油的研究

研究了以蓖麻油为原料,采用化学酯交换方法制备生物柴油的工艺过程.测定了最佳反应条件：催化剂用量为油重的1.0%,甲醇用量为油重的20%,反应温度为65℃,反应时间为90 min,酯交换率可达到86%.     

Effect of microwave plasma torch on the pyrolysis fuel oil in the presence of methane and ethane to increase hydrogen production

Pyrolysis fuel oil (PFO) processing by microwave plasma torch was developed for the production of hydrogen. The PFO cracking process was performed at atmospheric pressure in the absence of catalyst and effect of plasma gas on the production rate of hydrogen and light hydrocarbons (C₂–C₄) was evaluated. In the first step, effect of the applied power and the working gas flow rate was investigated. In the second step, the applied power and working gas rate were set to 650 W and 4000 sccm, respectively, which were provided by combining methane or ethane as 0%, 2.5%, 7.5%, and 20% with argon. By increasing the percentage of the existing methane in argon, production rate of the sum of the light hydrocarbons was increased and that of hydrogen was reduced, but it was more than the case when argon was applied alone. By increasing ethane percentage, hydrogen production and light hydrocarbon rate were increased. The best conditions of the plasma gas for producing hydrogen at the power of 650 W were obtained as 5CC PFO feed, 2500 sccm (80%) argon, and 500 sccm (20%). The hydrogen production rate in optimized conditions was 2343.16SCCM with selectivity of 84.41%. Sum of the obtained hydrocarbons in this test was 434.25 sccm. Another parameter in the present study was the feed volume processed by plasma. In this case, 5 cc, 3 cc, and 1 cc of the feed were tested when the plasma gas was 3000 sccm argon with the power of 650 W. The results showed that, by increasing the feed, the products were increased. In the processing of 5 cc feed with plasma, 896.41 sccm hydrogen and 61 sccm light hydrocarbon were produced.     

Regional modelling of oil discovery and production

This paper outlines a new method for summarizing the exploratory and production potential of an aggregated geographical region in terms of the past history of exploration and production at the field level. The analytical framework is divided into two stages. First, the discovery analysis describes the physical returns to exploratory drilling (marginal expected field size), which provide additions to the potential reserve base. Subsequently, the production analysis specifies the economic costs of bringing new fields on stream, and also describes the likely production rate from fields of distinct physical characteristics. In both the exploratory stage and the production stage, the negative influence of resource depletion is modelled explicitly. The expected size of successive field discoveries is subject to exponential decay at a rate determined by analysis of past discovery history. In the production stage, production flow declines exponentially from the peak rate as the field is exhausted, Finally, the paper contains new estimates of development cost functions that are sensitive to both economic parameters and the physical characteristics of fields. The cost functions relate total investment expenditure to the size of fields, the rate of extraction, and the productivity of individual wells. The analytical framework is illustrated by application to 37 individual regions around the world.     

Analysis of the influence of operating conditions on fouling rates in fired heaters

Fouling due to chemical reaction in preheat trains for the processing of crude oil plays a key role in the operation and maintenance costs and on greenhouse emissions to atmosphere in crude processing plants. A preheat train consists of a set of heat transfer units that provide the crude oil stream the required amount of thermal energy to reach its target temperature either by heat recovery or by direct firing. Fired heaters supply external high temperature heating through the burning of fuel which result in complex heat transfer processes due to the large temperature and pressure changes and vaporization that takes place inside the unit. In this work, a thermo-hydraulic analysis of the performance of fired heaters is carried out through the application of commercial software to solve the mathematical models using finite difference methods; the analysis is applied to the crude side of a vertical fired heater in order to evaluate the impact of process conditions such as throughput and crude inlet temperature (CIT) on the fouling that take place at the early stages of operation. Using a fouling rate model based on thermo-hydraulic parameters, fouling rates are predicted assuming steady state operation and clean conditions. Although variations in process conditions are known to influence fouling rates, little work has been done on the subject. In this work excess air and steam injection are studied as a means to mitigate fouling. Results show that throughput reduction brings about a marked increase in the fouling rates. A decrease in CIT affects only the convection zone and it is found that this effect is negligible. In terms of excess air, it is found that although it affects negatively the heater efficiency it can be used to balance heat transfer between the convection and radiation zone in a way that fouling rates are reduced; however this strategy should be considered right from the design stage. Finally it is observed that steam injection is an effective method to reduce fouling rates since it results in lower film temperatures and larger shear stress.