What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study

On December 29, 2017, China's Carbon Trading Scheme (ETS) was officially launched, and it may be the largest emission trading platform in the world. This paper establishes 5 counter-measured scenarios based on the recently launched China's national ETS market and constructs a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to study the impact of national ETS on the economy, energy, and environment. We find that the national ETS will have a negative impact on GDP by 0.19%–1.44%. The national ETS can significantly increase the price of electricity, however, the increase in the prices of other commodities will be much lower than that of electricity. As long as the mechanism of the ETS market remains unchanged, emission reduction per year will increase linearly. Economic output and CO₂ emission are sensitive to Annual Decline factor (ADF). This paper argues that China's national ETS market is an effective tool to reduce CO₂ emission, and we suggest that ADF could be 0.5% when allocating carbon allowance for the electricity sector. This could balance economic output and CO₂ reduction. Also, it is easy to achieve the goal of “double control” (total amount and intensity) in China.     

Evaluation of potential co-benefits of air pollution control and climate mitigation policies for China's electricity sector

Since the rapid industrialisation, local air pollution has become one of China's most important environmental issues. In consequence, increasingly stringent air pollution control policies have been established by the Chinese government. These policies will inevitably affect China's future electric power investment given the key contribution of this sector to air pollution. This sector is also a key contributor to China’s greenhouse gas emissions and hence climate policy efforts. We present a study exploring what impacts of potential interactions and combinations of different policy efforts for local air pollutant control and carbon mitigation have on China's future electricity generation mix. The study utilises a novel generation portfolio model that explicitly incorporates key uncertainties in future technology costs and different policy approaches including carbon pricing and air emissions control. The findings highlight that China can achieve significant reductions for both greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions through a combination of climate change and air pollution control policies. Furthermore, there are potentially significant co-benefits from the perspectives of both air pollutant control and carbon mitigation and, notably, that the co-benefit from a sufficient carbon pricing policy to air pollution emission reductions is much stronger than that from stringent air pollutant control policies to carbon mitigation. Specifically, in order to achieve substantial local air pollution and greenhouse gas mitigation from China's electricity sector, it is necessary to close coal-fired power plants rather than merely seeking to clean their air pollution emissions up.     

Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model

China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40–45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO₂ emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.     

The promotion of sustainable development in China through the optimization of a tax/subsidy plan among HFC and power generation CDM projects

China is expected to reach record growth by 2020 in the energy sector by at least doubling its electricity generation capacity. In order to protect the environment and foster economic development, China will greatly benefit from transfers of state-of-the-art power generation technologies through international agreements such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, a buyer-driven carbon market and a highly competitive environment due to more cost-effective projects attribute to China's need to achieve a balance between sustainability and profitability for CDM projects implemented in China.     

Energy and CO2 emissions performance in China's regional economies: Do market-oriented reforms matter?

This paper employs a newly developed non-radial directional distance function to evaluate China's regional energy and CO₂ emission performance for the period 1997–2009. Moreover, we analyze the impact of China's market-oriented reform on China's regional energy and carbon efficiency. The main findings are as follows. First, most of China's regions did not perform efficiently in energy use and CO₂ emissions. Provinces in the east area generally performed better than those in the central and west areas. By contrast, provinces in the west area generally evidenced the lowest efficiency. Second, Market-oriented reforms, especially the promotion of factor market, were found to have positive effect on the efficiency of energy use and CO₂ emissions. Third, the share of coal in the total energy consumption and the expansion of the industrial sector were found to be negatively correlated with China's regional energy and CO₂ emissions performance. Based on the empirical findings, we provide policy suggestions for enhancing energy and carbon efficiency in China.     

Clean coal technology development in China

Coal is found in huge amounts throughout the world and is expected to play a crucial role as an abundant energy source. However, one critical issue in promoting coal utilization is controlling environmental pollution. Clean coal technologies are needed to utilize coal in an environmentally acceptable way and to improve coal utilization efficiency. This paper describes coal's role in China's energy system and the environmental issues related to coal use. Coal is responsible for 90% of the SO₂ emissions, 70% of the dust emissions, 67% of the NO_x emissions, and 70% of the CO₂ emissions. But as the most abundant energy resource, it will continue to be the dominant energy supply for a long time. Therefore, the development and deployment of clean coal technologies are crucial to promote sustainable development in China. Clean coal technologies currently being developed in China are described including high efficiency combustion and advanced power generation technologies, coal transformation technologies, IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Although China only recently began developing clean coal technologies, there have been many successes. Most recent orders of coal-fired power plants are units larger than 600 MW and new orders for supercritical and ultra supercritical systems are increasing rapidly. Many national research programs, industrial research programs and international collaboration projects have been launched to develop on IGCC and CCS systems in China. Finally, suggestions are given on how to further promote clean coal technologies in China.     

Hydrogen in China: Policy,program and progress

The paper introduces the role of energy in China economy context, criteria for sustainable development in energy sector, China's hydrogen vision, the role of hydrogen in China's R&D plan, recently launched national programs, and progresses and achievements in research, development and demonstration. The paper concludes that with fast economy development in the new era in China, the energy sector has been confronted with severe challenges in terms of supply security, environment pollution and greenhouse gas emission, and China has attached significant priority on research and development in hydrogen and fuel cell areas, as one of effective counter-measures to address these challenges. Transition to the hydrogen economy in China, a long-term, non-carbon energy solution, is believed to play a significant role, complementary to electricity, in the future sustainable energy system. It is recommended that more priority be attached for R&D in secondary industry, especially the utilization of hydrogen and fuel cell in stationary power generation from coal gasification.     

Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO₂ emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).     

Changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector: Decomposition and attribution analysis

The industrial sector accounts for 70% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions in China. To gain a better understanding of the changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector, this study first utilized logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis to disentangle the carbon intensity into three influencing factors, including the emission coefficient effect, the energy intensity effect, and the structure effect. Then, the analysis was furthered to explore the contributions of individual industrial sub-sectors to each factor by using an extension of the decomposition method proposed in Choi and Ang (2012). The results indicate that from 1996 to 2012, the energy intensity effect was the dominant factor in reducing carbon intensity, of which chemicals, iron and steel, metal and machinery, and cement and ceramics were the most representative sub-sectors. The structure effect did not show a strong impact on carbon intensity. The emission coefficient effect gradually increased the carbon intensity, mainly due to the expansion of electricity consumption, particularly in the metal and machinery and chemicals sub-sectors. The findings suggest that differentiated policies and measures should be considered for various industrial sub-sectors to maximize the energy efficiency potential. Moreover, readjusting the industrial structure and promoting clean and renewable energy is also urgently required to further reduce carbon intensity in China's industrial sector.     

Analysis of China's energy utilization for 2007

China is the world's second-largest energy producer and consumer, so that it is very necessary to analyze China's energy situation for saving energy consumption and reducing GHG emission. Energy flow chart is taken as a useful tool for sorting out and displaying energy statistics data. Energy statistics data is the premise and foundation for analyzing energy situation. However, there exit many differences between China and foreign energy balance. Based on the international criterion of energy balance and some advices given by related experts, the author properly adjusts China's energy balance. And the purpose of this paper is to draft China's energy flow chart for 2007, which is used to study the characteristics of energy production and consumption in China. We find that: (1) coal is the main energy in China, which accounted for 73.2% of total energy supply in 2007; (2) thermal power accounted for 83.2% of the total electricity supply, and 78.43% thermal power was based on coal; (3) in 2007, the secondary industrial sector consumed about 69.93% of energy; (4) China's energy utilization efficiency was about 33.23% in 2007.     

From state monopoly to renewable portfolio: Restructuring China's electric utility

Deregulation and decentralization in the electricity sector have thrived worldwide since the early 1980s. China also started restructuring its electricity industry since the mid-1980s. The reform shares many common features with restructuring practices in other countries and exhibits some unique characteristics as well. To some extent, two features, namely governmental administrative departments’ dual role of government and business inherited from a highly centralized planned economy, and the coal-intensive nature of power generation, has determined many aspects of the evolution of China's electric power sector. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive account of the process with some emphasis on recent developments. We also identify some of the features that are similar to electricity market reforms in other countries and, most importantly, those that characterize the uniqueness of the restructuring practices in China's electricity industry through investigating the administrative framework, price and investment mechanisms, and associated legislation and policy settings at each of the five stages in the evolution of the electric utility sector. The paper concludes with a discussion and summary of some generic characteristics and remaining challenges.     

Modeling a clean energy standard for electricity: Policy design implications for emissions,supply, prices,and regions

The electricity sector is responsible for roughly 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and a reduction in CO₂ emissions from electricity generation is an important component of the U.S. strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Toward that goal, several proposals for a clean energy standard (CES) have been put forth, including one espoused by the Obama administration that calls for 80% clean electricity by 2035 phased in from current levels of roughly 40%. This paper looks at the effects of such a policy on CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector, the mix of technologies used to supply electricity, electricity prices, and regional flows of clean energy credits. The CES leads to a 30% reduction in cumulative CO₂ emissions between 2013 and 2035 and results in dramatic reductions in generation from conventional coal. The policy also results in fairly modest increases on national electricity prices, but this masks a wide variety of effects across regions.     

Impacts of China's emissions trading schemes on deployment of power generation with carbon capture and storage

The establishment of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in China creates the potential for a “least cost” solution for achieving the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions required for China to meet its Paris Agreement pledges. China has pledged to reduce CO₂ intensity by 60–65% in 2030 relative to 2005 and to stop the increase in absolute CO₂ emissions around 2030. In this series of studies, we enhance the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to include the latest assessments of the costs of power generation technologies in China to evaluate the impacts of different potential ETS pathways on deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. This paper reports the results from baseline scenarios where power generation prices are assumed to be homogeneous across the country for a given mode of generation. We find that there are different pathways where CCS might play an important role in reducing the emission intensity in China's electricity sector, especially for low carbon intensity targets consistent with the ultimate goals of the Paris Agreement. Uncertainty about the exact technology mix suggests that decision makers should be wary of picking winning technologies, and should instead seek to provide incentives for emission reductions. While it will be challenging to meet the CO₂ intensity target of 550 g/kWh for the electric power sector by 2020, multiple pathways exist for achieving lower targets over a longer timeframe. Our initial analysis shows that carbon prices of 35–40$/tCO₂ make CCS technologies on coal-based generation cost-competitive against other modes of generation and that carbon prices higher than 100$/tCO₂ favor a major expansion of CCS. The next step is to confirm these initial results with more detailed modeling that takes into account granularity across China's energy sector at the provincial level.     

Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications

Chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country's economy and industry expand. Coal is particularly critical for China's fast-growing power sector, generating about 80% of electricity output. Notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity, many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in China. This paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that Chinese GDP growth to 2025 will not again approach double-digit levels. Using the scenario analysis, this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about Chinese GDP growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025, the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies. The paper also analyzes how China's domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades, possibly affecting long-term economic growth in China, as well as world coal prices.     

Market distortions and aggregate productivity: Evidence from Chinese energy enterprises

Market distortions can generate resource misallocations across heterogeneous firms and reduce aggregate productivity. This paper measures market distortions and aggregate productivity growth in China's energy sector. We use the wedge between output elasticities and factor shares in revenues to recover a measure of firm-level market distortions. Using data on a large sample of Chinese energy enterprises from 1999 to 2007, our estimations provide strong evidence of the existence of both factor and product market distortions within and across China's various energy industries. The productivity aggregation and decomposition results demonstrate that the estimated aggregate productivity growth (APG) is, on average, 2.595% points per year, of which technological change, resource reallocation, and firm entries and exits account for 1.981, 0.068, and 0.546% points, respectively. The weak contributions of resource reallocation and firm turnover to APG are also found in energy sub-industries, except in the coal industry. Our research suggests that China's energy sector has major potential for productivity gains from resource reallocation through the reduction of market distortions.     

Clean coal use in China: Challenges and policy implications

Energy consumption in China is currently dominated by coal, a major source of air pollution and carbon emissions. The utilization of clean coal technologies is a likely strategic choice for China at present, however, although there have been many successes in clean coal technologies worldwide, they are not widely used in China. This paper examines the challenges that China faces in the implementation of such clean coal technologies, where the analysis shows that those drivers that have a negative bearing on the utilization of clean coal in China are mainly non-technical factors such as the low legal liability of atmospheric pollution related to coal use, and the lack of laws and mandatory regulations for clean coal use in China. Policies for the development of clean coal technologies are in their early stages in China, and the lack of laws and detailed implementation requirements for clean coal require resolution in order to accelerate China's clean coal developments. Currently, environmental pollution has gained widespread attention from the wider Chinese populace and taking advantage of this opportunity provides a space in which to regain the initiative to raise people’s awareness of clean coal products, and improve enterprises’ enthusiasm for clean coal.     

Can CDM bring technology transfer to China?—An empirical study of technology transfer in China’s CDM projects

China has undertaken the greatest number of projects and reported the largest emission reductions on the global clean development mechanism (CDM) market. As technology transfer (TT) was designed to play a key role for Annex II countries in achieving greenhouse gas emission reductions, this study examines various factors that have affected CDM and TT in China. The proportion of total income derived from the certified emissions reductions (CER) plays a key role in the project owners’ decision to adopt foreign technology. Incompatibility of CDM procedures with Chinese domestic procedures, technology diffusion (TD) effects, Chinese government policy and the role of carbon traders and CDM project consultants all contribute to the different degrees and forms of TT. International carbon traders and CDM consultants could play a larger role in TT in China's CDM projects as investors and brokers in the future.     

Understanding the dynamics of electricity supply,resources and pollution: Pakistan's case

To meet the compelling demand for electricity, the government of Pakistan introduced reforms in 1990–1991 that provide incentives for private sector investments, particularly in the electric power industry. In response to these incentives, most of the independent power producers (IPPs) offers included oil, coal and/or gas power plants. Hydroelectric generation, despite its rich resource base in the country, did not gain much attraction. This research provides an assessment of the existing policy subject to the constraints of environment concerns and available, but limited, resources. A dynamic simulation model that captures the dynamics of the sectors underlying the electricity system is built using system dynamics methodology. The policy assessment has been carried out in a three-dimensional context: the electricity supply; the resource import dependency; and the evolution of CO₂ emissions. This research finds that the unchanged prolongation of the existing policy seems to effectively attract IPPs investments but not without potentially adverse consequences for the environment and the economy.     

Internalizing externalities of electricity generation: An analysis with MESSAGE-MACRO

This paper examines the global impacts of a policy that internalizes the external costs (related to air pollution damage, excluding climate costs) of electricity generation using a combined energy systems and macroeconomic model. Starting point are estimates of the monetary damage costs for SO₂, NO_X, and PM per kWh electricity generated, taking into account the fuel type, sulfur content, removal technology, generation efficiency, and population density. Internalizing these externalities implies that clean and advanced technologies increase their share in global electricity production. Particularly, advanced coal power plants, natural gas combined cycles, natural gas fuel cells, wind and biomass technologies gain significant market shares at the expense of traditional coal- and gas-fired plants. Global carbon dioxide emissions are lowered by 3% to 5%. Sulfur dioxide emissions drop significantly below the already low level. The policy increases the costs of electricity production by 0.2 (in 2050) to 1.2 € cent/kWh (in 2010). Gross domestic product losses are between 0.6% and 1.1%. They are comparatively high during the initial phase of the policy, pointing to the need for a gradual phasing of the policy.     

R&D status and the performance of domestic firms in China's coal mining industry

Coal use accounts for a very large proportion of electricity production in China. Using a recently developed coarsened exact matching (CEM) technique, this paper examines the impact of research and development (R&D) activities on the performance of firms in China's coal mining industry. Our empirical results reveal that firms in China's coal industry that conduct R&D are more productive and their sales are higher. However, as far as the firm profitability and market shares are concerned, whether or not a firm in China's coal industry conducts R&D makes no difference. We find that foreign direct investment in China's coal mining industry leads to a significant decrease in the market share of domestic firms and its impact on productivity, sales and profitability of domestic firms is insignificant. The empirical results presented in this paper suggest that policies that encourage domestic firms in China's coal mining industries to conduct R&D can increase domestic production thereby reducing reliance on imports. Furthermore, productivity gains arising from R&D activities can also help Chinese mining firms to improve their competitive position in the international market. However, there is a need for restricting foreign direct investment in China's coal mining industry.