Modeling technological learning and its application for clean coal technologies in Japan

Estimating technological progress of emerging technologies such as renewables and clean coal technologies becomes important for designing low carbon energy systems in future and drawing effective energy policies. Learning curve is an analytical approach for describing the decline rate of cost and production caused by technological progress as well as learning. In the study, a bottom-up energy-economic model including an endogenous technological learning function has been designed. The model deals with technological learning in energy conversion technologies and its spillover effect. It is applied as a feasibility study of clean coal technologies such as IGCC (Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle) and IGFC (Integrated Coal Gasification Fuel Cell System) in Japan. As the results of analysis, it is found that technological progress by learning has a positive impact on the penetration of clean coal technologies in the electricity market, and the learning model has a potential for assessing upcoming technologies in future.     

Fast market penetration of energy technologies in retrospect with application to clean energy futures

The fast penetration of energy technologies in the past was analyzed and applied to investigate the prospects of new energy technologies. The results show that single energy sources have obtained quite a dominant position in the past. In the USA, at one time both oil and coal each represented over half of all the yearly additions to energy capacity for more than half a century and reached a dominant position in overall energy production. Oil showed a similar dominance on a global scale. For two decades nuclear power represented one third of all the new electricity added worldwide and over 60% in the countries possessing nuclear power. In some countries nuclear grew to around half of all electricity in less than just 10 years. Applying these empirical observations to new renewables and assuming similar growth conditions as for the old technologies, the share of renewable electricity could grow from its present 19% to 60% by 2050, which would drop the baseline CO₂ emissions by 27%. The share of new renewables of all electricity would come up to 42%. The rate of adoption of these new technologies would not exceed that of oil or nuclear in the past, but they would need to dominate new electricity investments from 2030 onwards. A hypothetical fast-track case for solar photovoltaics, assuming an expansion similar to that seen in the case of nuclear and oil, would lead to a 20–25% share of all electricity in 2050. An important observation is that the fast and high penetration of energy technologies implies, in most cases, a full lock-in into these, requiring a preferential position regarding investments and a favorable long-term policy framework.     

Exploring past energy changes and their implications for the pace of penetration of new energy technologies

Possible growth paths for new electricity generation technologies are investigated on the basis of an empirical analysis of past penetration rates. Finding and understanding high market penetration scenarios is relevant to formulating climate change mitigation strategies. The analysis shows that under favorable growth conditions, photovoltaics and wind could produce 15% and 25%, respectively, of world electricity by 2050. Under the same assumptions nuclear power could increase to 41% of world electricity. But it is unlikely that all three technology paths could be realized up to these values simultaneously and therefore the penetration rates presented here should be considered as indicative only. The results show that under positive conditions, an embryonic technology could move as a preferred option into a mainstream energy source within half a century. The introduction of growth constraints reflecting, e.g., severe economic, technical, or political limitations could reduce the above numbers by a factor of up to 2–3. The results indicate a decline in the relative year-to-year growth of new technologies when they have higher market shares. A comparison of the results with other short-term and long-term technology scenarios shows satisfactory agreement.     

Latin American electricity markets and renewable energy sources: The Argentinean and Chilean cases

From the mid eighties on, most of Latin American Countries reformed their energy systems. The impact of these reforms over electricity markets was different in each case. However, in the majority of these cases there was a shift to private participation, instead of State, and a convergence of electricity systems to hydro and thermal technologies. This is the case of Argentina and Chile.     

The impact of liberalisation of the electricity market on the hard coal mining sector in Poland

The liberalisation of the electricity market changed the conditions of operation not only for the power industry, but also for related sectors. One of the particularly sensitive industries in Poland is coal mining, which is the result of coal-based structure of electricity generation. As it is more difficult, in the liberalised market, to burden consumers with all the costs, electricity producers are eager to transfer the risk of operation to the suppliers. That increases uncertainty about the future of the hard coal industry. The aim of this paper was to quantitatively estimate the impact that liberalisation of the electricity markets may have on the coal mining sector in Poland. First of all, the possible areas of that impact were identified. Then the model, which involved detailed relations in the impact areas identified, was developed and employed to evaluate the performance of the mining sector. The comparison of scenarios of a monopolistic electricity sector with a liberalised one enabled an estimation of the scale of the impact on the mining sector to be made. The results showed that liberalisation causes decreased coal consumption and decreased operating profits in coal companies. However, some savings in electricity costs are possible for coal producers.     

Green electricity market development: Lessons from Europe and the US

This study compares the development and implementation of green electricity policies in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States, a set of countries applying a range of policy instruments to encourage electricity from renewable energy sources. A general tendency is identified that policies shift emphasis from R&D stimulation towards dissemination and market application of renewable energy technologies. We argue that in light of the long term nature of policy goals on energy security, mitigation of climate change, and environmental protection, the applied range of policy instruments may be lacking in providing incentives for the long term development of new technologies. Clarifying policy objectives would allow careful selection of policy instruments, including support for R&D. Improved capacity building for policy implementation is also important.     

How to use the clean development mechanism in the residential sector? The case of Brazilian refrigerators

The definition of simple and reliable emission baselines is crucial to foster clean development mechanism (CDM) projects. This paper assesses a project methodology that could boost large-scale energy-efficiency projects in the sector of domestic appliances. The baseline appliance is defined a priori in a “conservative” manner as the design option minimizing life-cycle social costs. The project methodology consists in a program which rebates new appliances according to their emission savings compared to the baseline. Is the proposed baseline acceptable? What could be the impact of such project on emissions? To address these questions, we look for insights from a hypothetical case on Brazilian refrigerators. A rational choice model is developed which assumes that households select design options minimizing life-cycle private costs. Results suggest that electricity tariff distortions and financial constraints might hamper project performances and allow significant free-riding. Low income households remain trapped into low-efficiency choices and high income households adopt outperforming appliances, whether rebated or not. However, simple solutions likely to improve the project methodology do exist.     

Implications of using clean technologies to power selected ASEAN countries

This paper focuses on energy system development of the three largest Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam. The energy infrastructures in these counties are in the process of rapid development and, therefore, technology choices are critical. Applying the energy system model MARKAL and scenario analysis, this paper examines and quantifies the role of clean and advanced energy technologies for efficient local resource exploitation and improving energy security and environmental conditions. The main focus is on the power sector and the paper also addresses the potential ASEAN markets for European energy technologies.     

Nuclear and clean coal technology options for sustainable development in India

Due to the growing energy needs along with increasing concerns towards control of greenhouse gas emissions, most developing countries are under pressure to find alternative methods for energy conversion and policies to make these technologies economically viable. Most of the energy is produced from fossil fuel in India which is not a sustainable source of energy. In this paper Indian power sector has been examined by using MARKAL model for introduction of clean coal and advanced nuclear technologies with implementation of energy conservation potential. The result shows that application of clean technologies gives energy security but not significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. When clean technologies apply with energy conservation a huge amount of CO₂ can be reduced and also economically viable. Three scenarios including base case scenario have been developed to estimate the resource allocations and CO₂ mitigation. The clean technologies with maximum savings potential shows 70% CO₂ reduction in the year 2045.     

Adoption of energy efficient technologies and carbon abatement: the electricity generating sector in India

A behavioral micro-economic framework was developed to analyze the impact of alternative mixes of policy reforms that eliminate existing regulatory distortions and a carbon emissions-tax on incentives to adopt energy efficient technologies and their implications for carbon emissions and output. An empirical application of this framework to the electricity-generating sector in India demonstrates that elimination of existing domestic and trade policy distortions has the potential to reduce carbon emissions even in the absence of an emissions-tax, by inducing the adoption of energy efficient technologies. In the presence of these policy reforms, an emissions-tax achieves a given level of abatement with higher output levels than in the absence of these reforms. This analysis indicates the potential for achieving a complementarity between the goals of reducing carbon emissions and increasing electricity generation by identifying the regulatory distortions that are hindering adoption of energy efficient technologies and tailoring policy reforms to specific distortions.     

Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO₂ emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).     

The importance of learning when supporting emergent technologies for energy efficiency—A case study on policy intervention for learning for the development of energy efficient windows in Sweden

The role of policy instruments to promote the development and diffusion of energy efficient technologies has been repeatedly accentuated in the context of climate change and sustainable development. To better understand the impact of policy instruments and to provide insights into technology change, assessments of various kinds are needed. This study analyzes the introduction and development of energy efficient windows in Sweden and the policy incentives applied to support this process. The study focuses on the assessment of technology and market development of energy efficient windows in Sweden; and by applying the concept of learning, it assesses how conditions for learning-by-searching, learning-by-doing, learning-by-using and learning-by-interacting have been supported by different policies. The results show successful progress in technology development and an improvement in best available technology of Swedish windows from 1.8 W/m² K in the 1970s to 0.7 W/m² K in 2010; in the same time period the market share of energy efficient windows increased from 20% in 1970 (average U-value of 2.0 W/m² K) to 80–85% in 2010 (average U-value of 1.3–1.2 W/m² K). The assessment shows that various policy instruments have facilitated all four learning processes resulting in the acknowledged slow but successful development of energy efficient windows.     

High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations.     

The evaluation of a process for clean syngas based on lump coal pressurized gasification

Raw Gas generated from LCPG (lump coal pressurized gasifier) contains quantities of organics including methane so that it is not suitable as syngas. A process was proposed to solve this problem, and Aspen Plus was used to discuss its possibility that Raw Gas was reformed to clean syngas through introducing oxygen on the principle of thermodynamic equilibrium. The simulation results reveal that almost all organics are completely converted to simple substances such as hydrogen and carbon monoxide whether or not to preheat. Raw Syngas and wastewater no longer contain various organic pollutants eliminated difficultly besides very small amounts of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, which certainly simplifies the purification and post-treatment processes. A Raw Syngas with H₂/CO ratio of 2.0 was attained under the operating condition of 2.35 Mpa and 918 °C. Such H₂/CO ratio is higher than those of coal gas derived from existing gasification technologies. Meanwhile, the total yield and content of the effective gas (CO + H₂) have been increased to 1109 m³/t and 72.0% respectively in the preheating process, and GE (gasification efficiency) rises to 84.8%. The OC (oxygen consumption), CC (coal consumption) and SC (steam consumption) have been reduced by 47.3%, 50.7% and 49.4% respectively compared with LCPG. In addition, the feasibility of this process was further verified with kinetic simulation.     

Welfare impacts of electricity generation sector reform in the Philippines

This paper reports an empirical investigation into the welfare impacts of the introduction of private sector participation into the Philippines electricity generation sector, by liberalizing the market for independent power producers (IPPs) during the power crisis of 1990–1993. This study uses a social cost and benefit analysis. The main benefits came from IPPs, who contributed to resolving the crisis, and promoted economic and social development. Consumers and investors were net gainers, while the government lost and there was an air pollution cost. The paper concludes that the reform with private sector participation increased social welfare.     

Household cooking fuels and technologies in developing economies

A major energy challenge of the 21^st century is the health and welfare of 2.7 billion people worldwide, who currently rely on burning biomass in traditional household cooking systems. This Special Issue on Clean Cooking Fuels and Technologies in Developing Economies builds upon an IAEE workshop on this subject, held in Istanbul in 2008 ( Foell et al., 2008). It includes several papers from that workshop plus papers commissioned afterwards. The major themes of that workshop and this Special Issue are:     

The future challenges for “clean coal technologies”: Joining efficiency increase and pollutant emission control

Coal offers an abundant widely spread fossil energy resource. It is available at a quite-stable price from many international suppliers and it will continue to play a significant role in new generating capacity, if security and diversity of supply remain fundamental. In this paper we point out the state of the art in the field of “clean coal technologies” evidencing the perspectives of improvement and the critical elements. Both the emission control of NO_x, SO_x, and particle matter and the advanced coal conversion pathways like ultra-supercritical (USC), pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC), and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) are reviewed and analyzed. At the end some elements concerning the perspectives of CO₂ emission control strategies are outlined.     

Assessment of access to electricity and the socio-economic impacts in rural areas of developing countries

The purpose of this study is to reveal relations between access to electricity and advancement in a socio-economic condition in rural areas of developing countries. Recently, multi-dimensional aspects of poverty, for example, economy, education, and health, has been increasingly focused on, and access to modern energy such as electricity is one possible solution. As a case study, we have analyzed unelectrified rural areas in Assam state, India. We have developed an energy-economic model in order to analyze the possibility of electrification through dissemination of electric lighting appliances as well as applied multiple regression analysis to estimate the socio-economic condition, a literacy rate above 6 years old, in the areas. As a result of the case study, the household electrification rate, the 1000 km² road density, and sex ratio have been chosen as the explanatory variables of the literacy rate. Moreover, the model analysis shows that complete household electrification will be achieved by the year 2012. In combination with the multiple regression and model analysis, the literacy rate in Assam may increase to 74.4% from 63.3%.     

Potential of sustainable energy technologies under CDM in Thailand: Opportunities and barriers

The paper presents results obtained from a much elaborated stakeholders’ assessment on potential of sustainable energy technologies conducted in Thailand. It also gives an overview of the status of clean development mechanism (CDM) portfolio in Thailand. The stakeholders from different sectors were contacted during the research and their feedbacks on potential of different technologies under CDM were discussed through a series of bilateral interviews. With the few selected technologies suitable in the context of CDM opportunities in Thailand, the sustainability benefits and barriers to their implementation are also discussed in detail. The suggestions provided by the stakeholders in overcoming a few key barriers are also given in the paper.     

A dynamic linear programming approach to market allocation of renewable resources in the italian energy system: The case of solar thermal and biogas technologies

In Italy solar thermal energy and energy from biogas are two possible means of reducing dependence on energy imports. Using a multiperiod LP model (MARKAL) the authors assessed the likely potential of both technologies under various circumstances. The study covered the period 1980–2005, in five segments of five years. It focused only on the subsystem of the energy end-uses which can be substituted for by solar thermal and biogas technologies. The overall non-renewable sources which can be saved in 20 years by these technologies total 450 PJ (1 PJ = 10^{1 5} J) if the fuel prices rise at 0 per cent average annual, 1450 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 4.2 per cent average annual, 1860 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 7.2 per cent average annual and 3780 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 15 per cent average annual. However the most competitive technologies appear to be solar water heaters used mainly in the private and commercial sectors and biogas systems used mainly in the agricultural sector. The study was carried out by APRE under ENEA (formerly CNEN) contract and was intended to serve as an analytical basis for establishing an overall development and demonstration strategy for end-use renewable technologies in Italy.