Fuel-cycle analysis of early market applications of fuel cells: Forklift propulsion systems and distributed power generation

Forklift propulsion systems and distributed power generation are identified as potential fuel cell applications for near-term markets. This analysis examines fuel cell forklifts and distributed power generators, and addresses the potential energy and environmental implications of substituting fuel-cell systems for existing technologies based on fossil fuels and grid electricity. Performance data and the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model are used to estimate full fuel-cycle emissions and use of primary energy sources. The greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of fuel-cell forklifts using hydrogen from steam reforming of natural gas are considerably lower than those using electricity from the average U.S. grid. Fuel cell generators produce lower GHG emissions than those associated with the U.S. grid electricity and alternative distributed combustion technologies. If fuel-cell generation technologies approach or exceed the target efficiency of 40%, they offer significant reduction in energy use and GHG emissions compared to alternative combustion technologies.     

How certain are greenhouse gas reductions from bioenergy? Life cycle assessment and uncertainty analysis of wood pellet-to-electricity supply chains from forest residues

Climate change and energy policies often encourage bioenergy as a sustainable greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction option. Recent research has raised concerns about the climate change impacts of bioenergy as heterogeneous pathways of producing and converting biomass, indirect impacts, uncertainties within the bioenergy supply chains and evaluation methods generate large variation in emission profiles. This research examines the combustion of wood pellets from forest residues to generate electricity and considers uncertainties related to GHG emissions arising at different points within the supply chain. Different supply chain pathways were investigated by using life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyse the emissions and sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant factors influencing the overall GHG balance. The calculations showed in the best case results in GHG reductions of 83% compared to coal-fired electricity generation. When parameters such as different drying fuels, storage emission, dry matter losses and feedstock market changes were included the bioenergy emission profiles showed strong variation with up to 73% higher GHG emissions compared to coal. The impact of methane emissions during storage has shown to be particularly significant regarding uncertainty and increases in emissions. Investigation and management of losses and emissions during storage is therefore key to ensuring significant GHG reductions from biomass.     

Influence of massive heat‐pump introduction on the electricity‐generation mix and the GHG effect—Belgian case study

To evaluate the environmental impact of massive heat‐pump introduction on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, dynamic simulations of the overall electricity‐generation system have been performed for Belgium. The simulations are carried out with Promix, a tool that models the overall electricity‐generation system. For comparison, three heating devices are considered, namely conventional boilers, heat pumps and electrical resistance heating. The introduction of electric heating at the expense of classic heating increases the demand for electricity and generates a shift of emissions from fossil‐fuel heating systems to electrical power plants. The replaced classic fossil‐fuel‐fired heating represents emissions of about 300 kton. With regard to the heat‐pump scenarios, both direct heat‐pump heating with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 2.5 and accumulation heat‐pump heating with a COP of 5 are investigated. The results of the simulations reveal that the massive introduction of heat‐pump heating is favourable to the environment. In Belgium, the largest reductions in GHG emissions occur with heat pumps for direct heating, combined with newly commissioned combined cycle (CC) gas‐fired plants or with accumulation heat‐pump heating. These scenarios bring about overall GHG emission reductions of approximately 200 kton compared with the reference case with conventional heating for the years 2000 and 2010. The amount of additional electricity‐related emissions depends on the considered heating device. In 2010, the scenario with accumulation heat pumps results in an overall decrease of Belgian GHG emissions by 0.15% compared with the reference scenario. The expansion of the electricity‐generation system with new CC plants has an important favourable impact on GHGs as well. In most cases, the combination of higher electricity demand and the construction of new gas‐fired CC plants will lead to lower overall GHG emissions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling light-duty plug-in electric vehicles for national energy and transportation planning

This paper sets forth a family of models of light-duty plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) fleets, appropriate for conducting long-term national-level planning studies of the energy and transportation sectors in an integrated manner. Using one of the proposed models, three case studies on the evolution of the U.S. energy and transportation infrastructures are performed, where portfolios of optimum investments over a 40-year horizon are identified, and interdependencies between the two sectors are highlighted. The results indicate that with a gradual but aggressive introduction of PEVs coupled with investments in renewable energy, the total cost from the energy and transportation systems can be reduced by 5%, and that overall emissions from electricity generation and light-duty vehicle (LDV) tailpipes can be reduced by 10% over the 40-year horizon. The annual gasoline consumption from LDVs can be reduced by 66% by the end of the planning horizon, but an additional 800 TWh of annual electricity demand will be introduced. In addition, various scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions are investigated. It is found that GHG emissions can be significantly reduced with only a marginal cost increment, by shifting electricity generation from coal to renewable sources.     

The costs and benefits of large-scale solar photovoltaic power production in Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates

The potential for a 10 MW photovoltaic power plant in Abu Dhabi is examined in this paper using RETScreen modeling software to predict energy production, financial feasibility and GHG emissions reductions. Initial results show high energy production potential, generating 24 GWh and saving over 10,000 tons of GHG emissions annually, but poor financial prospects yielding a net present value (NPV) of ?$51 million. Benefits of reducing GHG and air pollution emissions by replacing natural gas with PV generation are calculated to have a net present value of $47 million, with a large range of possible values. Results show that the high initial costs and low expected price for electricity generated are driving reasons why photovoltaic systems are not being implemented in Abu Dhabi. A feed-in tariff rate of $0.16/kWh is recommended to make large-scale PV systems profitable.     

Plug-in hybrid vehicle GHG impacts in California: Integrating consumer-informed recharge profiles with an electricity-dispatch model

This paper explores how Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) may reduce source-to-wheel Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. The two primary advances are the incorporation of (1) explicit measures of consumer interest in and potential use of different types of PHEVs and (2) a model of the California electricity grid capable of differentiating hourly and seasonal GHG emissions by generation source. We construct PHEV emissions scenarios to address inherent relationships between vehicle design, driving and recharging behaviors, seasonal and time-of-day variation in GHG-intensity of electricity, and total GHG emissions. A sample of 877 California new vehicle buyers provide data on driving, time of day recharge access, and PHEV design interests. The elicited data differ substantially from the assumptions used in previous analyses. We construct electricity demand profiles scaled to one million PHEVs and input them into an hourly California electricity supply model to simulate GHG emissions. Compared to conventional vehicles, consumer-designed PHEVs cut marginal (incremental) GHG emissions by more than one-third in current California energy scenarios and by one-quarter in future energy scenarios—reductions similar to those simulated for all-electric PHEV designs. Across the emissions scenarios, long-term GHG reductions depends on reducing the carbon intensity of the grid.     

Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production

Before further investments are made in utilizing biomass as a source of renewable energy, both policy makers and the energy industry need estimates of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions expected from substituting biobased fuels for fossil fuels. Such GHG reductions depend greatly on how the biomass is cultivated, transported, processed, and converted into fuel or electricity. Any policy aiming to reduce GHGs with biomass-based energy must account for uncertainties in emissions at each stage of production, or else it risks yielding marginal reductions, if any, while potentially imposing great costs.This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass. We outline the sources of uncertainty, discuss the implications of uncertainty and variability on the limits of life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and provide a guide for practitioners to best practices in modeling these uncertainties. The suite of techniques described herein can be used to improve the understanding and the representation of the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, thus enabling improved decision making with respect to the use of biomass for energy and fuel production.     

Climate consequences of low-carbon fuels: The United States Renewable Fuel Standard

A common strategy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use is to increase the supply of low-carbon alternatives. However, increasing supply tends to lower energy prices, which encourages additional fuel consumption. This “fuel market rebound effect” can undermine climate change mitigation strategies, even to the point where efforts to reduce GHG emissions by increasing the supply of low-carbon fuels may actually result in increased GHG emissions. Here, we explore how policies that encourage the production of low-carbon fuels may result in increased GHG emissions because the resulting increase in energy use overwhelms the benefits of reduced carbon intensity. We describe how climate change mitigation strategies should follow a simple rule: a low-carbon fuel with a carbon intensity of X% that of a fossil fuel must displace at least X% of that fossil fuel to reduce overall GHG emissions. We apply this rule to the United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). We show that absent consideration of the fuel market rebound effect, RFS2 appears to reduce GHG emissions, but once the fuel market rebound effect is factored in, RFS2 actually increases GHG emissions when all fuel GHG intensity targets are met.     

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy–environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno–economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio–environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.     

Decarbonising new city precincts: A case study in Perth,Western Australia

The performance of our cities in terms of how they deal with energy across a wide range of indicators is the key factor in reducing carbon emissions. The focus of this paper is a precinct in Perth which is about to be redeveloped. The proposed plan is modelled looking specifically at Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from: materials used in the construction, not only of the buildings but also the infrastructure (i.e. roads and paving in the public realm); electricity and gas consumption through the use of everyday residential and commercial appliances and equipment; the energy required for the pumping and treatment of water supplied to the development site including water required for the irrigation of public areas as well as for individual consumption; and private motor vehicles owned by residents on the development site. A baseline model representing the proposed plan built to existing codes and standards is used to determine the impact of a range of low-carbon interventions proposed for the development, including reducing parking and adding good quality public transport. Significant GHG emissions reductions of greater than 50% are possible at quite minimal additional cost due to the alternative systems of development that are found to be effective at a precinct scale. In order to achieve such precinct-scale innovations there are policy and regulatory barriers for electricity, thermal energy and water utility providers to overcome. There needs to be a reasonable business case for developers, energy service companies (ESCO's) and potential customers to enable investment in low carbon, precinct scale options. Some examples of these are also discussed.     

Life cycle assessment study of solar PV systems: An example of a 2.7 kWp distributed solar PV system in Singapore

In life cycle assessment (LCA) of solar PV systems, energy pay back time (EPBT) is the commonly used indicator to justify its primary energy use. However, EPBT is a function of competing energy sources with which electricity from solar PV is compared, and amount of electricity generated from the solar PV system which varies with local irradiation and ambient conditions. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use site-specific EPBT for major decision-making in power generation planning. LCA and life cycle cost analysis are performed for a distributed 2.7 kW_p grid-connected mono-crystalline solar PV system operating in Singapore. This paper presents various EPBT analyses of the solar PV system with reference to a fuel oil-fired steam turbine and their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs are also compared. The study reveals that GHG emission from electricity generation from the solar PV system is less than one-fourth that from an oil-fired steam turbine plant and one-half that from a gas-fired combined cycle plant. However, the cost of electricity is about five to seven times higher than that from the oil or gas fired power plant. The environmental uncertainties of the solar PV system are also critically reviewed and presented.     

Comprehensive evaluation of effects of straw-based electricity generation: A Chinese case

Greater use of renewable energy is being aggressively promoted to combat climate change by the Chinese government and by other governments. Agricultural straw is the kind of renewable energy source that would become a pollution source if it is not well utilized. We select the Shiliquan straw-based electricity generation project in Shandong Province, China as a case and assess environmental externalities of straw utilization in power plants by using life-cycle analysis. Results show that straw-based electricity generation has far fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than that of coal-based electricity generation. Improvement in the energy efficiency of equipment used for straw’s pretreatment would lead to a decrease of GHG emissions and energy consumption in the life-cycle of straw-based electricity generation. In case 400 million tonnes of wasted straw in China could be used as a substitute for 200 million tonnes of coal, annually the straw 291 Terrawatt hours (TWh) of electricity could be generated, resulting in an annual total CO₂ emissions savings of 193 million tonnes. Straw-based electricity generation could be a high-potential alternative for electricity generation as well as an incentive for utilizing wheat straw instead of burning it in the field.     

Features,trajectories and driving forces for energy-related GHG emissions from Chinese mega cites: The case of Beijing,Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing

With China’s rapid economic development and urbanization process, cities are facing great challenges for tackling anthropogenic climate change. In this paper we present features, trajectories and driving forces for energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from four Chinese mega-cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing) during 1995–2009. First, top-down GHG inventories of these four cities, including direct emissions (scope 1) and emissions from imported electricity (scope 2) are presented. Then, the driving forces for the GHG emission changes are uncovered by adopting a time serial LMDI decomposition analysis. Results indicate that annual GHG emission in these four cities exceeds more than 500 million tons and such an amount is still rapidly growing. GHG emissions are mainly generated from energy use in industrial sector and coal-burning thermal power plants. The growth of GHG emissions in four mega-cities during 1995–2009 is mainly due to economic activity effect, partially offset by improvements in carbon intensity. Besides, the proportion of indirect GHG emission from imported energy use (scope 2) keeps growing, implying that big cities are further dependent on energy/material supplies from neighboring regions. Therefore, a comprehensive consideration on various perspectives is needed so that different stakeholders can better understand their responsibilities on reducing total GHG emissions.     

Economics and greenhouse gas balance of distributed electricity production at sawmills using hermetic turbogenerator

This article focuses on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and on the economics in renewable electricity production at sawmills. Electricity production application in this study is a hermetic turbogenerator (HTG). The HTG is a small-scale steam turbine-generator unit of compact size that achieves high efficiency. The paper studies GHG emissions and the economics of HTG use in sawmills using life cycle assessment methodologies. Small- and large-scale HTG processes are studied in three scenarios. Sawmills produce large volumes of biomass by-products which are mainly used to produce heat needed in lumber dryers. However, due to remote location of sawmills there may be no use for excess biomass. HTGs can be used to produce electricity in addition to heat (CHP), which may help to increase renewable electricity production in sparsely populated areas. It is concluded that from the economic perspective HTGs may be an attractive option but financial viability is dependent on energy prices, required investments, and by-product value. From the climate change perspective, electricity production with HTGs may be a good option if there is excess biomass sources available.     

GHG emissions and energy performance of offshore wind power

This paper presents specific life cycle GHG emissions from wind power generation from six different 5 MW offshore wind turbine conceptual designs. In addition, the energy performance, expressed by the energy indicators Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) Energy Payback Time (EPT), is calculated for each of the concepts.There are currently few LCA studies in existence which analyse offshore wind turbines with rated power as great as 5 MW. The results, therefore, give valuable additional environmental information concerning large offshore wind power. The resulting GHG emissions vary between 18 and 31.4 g CO₂-equivalents per kWh while the energy performance, assessed as EPR and EPT, varies between 7.5 and 12.9, and 1.6 and 2.7 years, respectively. The relatively large ranges in GHG emissions and energy performance are chiefly the result of the differing steel masses required for the analysed platforms. One major conclusion from this study is that specific platform/foundation steel masses are important for the overall GHG emissions relating to offshore wind power. Other parameters of importance when comparing the environmental performance of offshore wind concepts are the lifetime of the turbines, wind conditions, distance to shore, and installation and decommissioning activities.Even though the GHG emissions from wind power vary to a relatively large degree, wind power can fully compete with other low GHG emission electricity technologies, such as nuclear, photovoltaic and hydro power.     

Comparative analysis of environmental impacts of maize-biogas and photovoltaics on a land use basis

This study aims to stimulate the discussion on how to optimize a sustainable energy mix from an environmental perspective and how to apply existing renewable energy sources in the most efficient way. Ground-mounted photovoltaics (PV) and the maize-biogas-electricity route are compared with regard to their potential to mitigate environmental pressure, assuming that a given agricultural area is available for energy production. Existing life cycle assessment (LCA) studies are taken as a basis to analyse environmental impacts of those technologies in relation to conventional technology for power and heat generation. The life-cycle-wide mitigation potential per area used is calculated for the impact categories non-renewable energy input, green house gas (GHG) emissions, acidification and eutrophication. The environmental performance of each system depends on the scenario that is assumed for end energy use (electricity and heat supply have been contemplated). In all scenarios under consideration, PV turns out to be superior to biogas in almost all studied impact categories. Even when maize is used for electricity production in connection with very efficient heat usage, and reduced PV performance is assumed to account for intermittence, PV can still mitigate about four times the amount of green house gas emissions and non-renewable energy input compared to maize-biogas. Soil erosion, which can be entirely avoided with PV, exceeds soil renewal rates roughly 20-fold on maize fields. Regarding the overall Eco-indicator 99 (H) score under most favourable assumptions for the maize-biogas route, PV has still a more than 100% higher potential to mitigate environmental burden. At present, the key advantages of biogas are its price and its availability without intermittence. In the long run, and with respect to more efficient land use, biogas might preferably be produced from organic waste or manure, whereas PV should be integrated into buildings and infrastructures.     

Reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn ethanol by integrating biomass to produce heat and power at ethanol plants

A life-cycle assessment (LCA) of corn ethanol was conducted to determine the reduction in the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for corn ethanol compared to gasoline by integrating biomass fuels to replace fossil fuels (natural gas and grid electricity) in a U.S. Midwest dry-grind corn ethanol plant producing 0.19 hm³ y⁻¹ of denatured ethanol. The biomass fuels studied are corn stover and ethanol co-products [dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS), and syrup (solubles portion of DDGS)]. The biomass conversion technologies/systems considered are process heat (PH) only systems, combined heat and power (CHP) systems, and biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) systems. The life-cycle GHG emission reduction for corn ethanol compared to gasoline is 38.9% for PH with natural gas, 57.7% for PH with corn stover, 79.1% for CHP with corn stover, 78.2% for IGCC with natural gas, 119.0% for BIGCC with corn stover, and 111.4% for BIGCC with syrup and stover. These GHG emission estimates do not include indirect land use change effects. GHG emission reductions for CHP, IGCC, and BIGCC include power sent to the grid which replaces electricity from coal. BIGCC results in greater reductions in GHG emissions than IGCC with natural gas because biomass is substituted for fossil fuels. In addition, underground sequestration of CO₂ gas from the ethanol plant’s fermentation tank could further reduce the life-cycle GHG emission for corn ethanol by 32% compared to gasoline.     

Economic and greenhouse gas emission analysis of bioenergy production using multi-product crops—case studies for the Netherlands and Poland

In the face of climate change that may result from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the scarcity of agricultural land and limited competitiveness of biomass energy on the market, it is desirable to increase the performance of bioenergy systems. Multi-product crops, i.e. using a crop partially for energy and partially for material purposes can possibly create additional incomes as well as additional GHG emission reductions. In this study, the performance of several multi-product crop systems is compared to energy crop systems, focused on the costs of primary biomass fuel costs and GHG emission reductions per hectare of biomass production. The sensitivity of the results is studied by means of a Monte-Carlo analysis. The multi-product crops studied are wheat, hemp and poplar in the Netherlands and Poland. GHG emission reductions of these multi-product crop systems are found to be between 0.2 and 2.4 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr) in Poland and 0.9 and 7.8 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr) in the Netherlands, while primary biomass fuel costs range from −4.1 to −1.7 €/GJ in the Netherlands and from 0.1 to 9.8 €/GJ in Poland. Results show that the economic attractiveness of multi-product crops depends strongly on material market prices, crop production costs and crop yields. Net annual GHG emission reductions per hectare are influenced strongly by the specific GHG emission reduction of material use, reference energy systems and GHG emissions of crop production. Multi-product use of crops can significantly decrease primary biomass fuel costs. However, this does not apply in general, but depends on the kind of crops and material uses. For the examples analysed here, net annual GHG emission reductions per hectare are not lowered by multi-product use of crops. Consequently, multi-product crops are not for granted an option to increase the performance of bioenergy systems. Further research on the feasibility of large-scale multi-product crop systems and their impact on land and material markets is desirable.     

What can we learn from high-frequency appliance-level energy metering? Results from a field experiment

This study uses high-frequency appliance-level electricity consumption data for 124 apartments over 24 months to provide a better understanding of appliance-level electricity consumption behavior. We conduct our analysis in a standardized set of apartments with similar appliances, which allows us to identify behavioral differences in electricity use. The Results show that households' estimations of appliance-level consumption are inaccurate and that they overestimate lighting use by 75% and underestimate plug-load use by 29%. We find that similar households using the same major appliances exhibit substantial variation in appliance-level electricity consumption. For example, households in the 75th percentile of HVAC usage use over four times as much electricity as a user in the 25th percentile. Additionally, we show that behavior accounts for 25–58% of this variation. Lastly, we find that replacing the existing refrigerator with a more energy-efficient model leads to overall energy savings of approximately 11%. This is equivalent to results from behavioral interventions targeting all appliances but might not be as cost effective. Our findings have important implications for behavior-based energy conservation policies.