The status quo of China's nuclear power and the uranium gap solution

Mainland China has eleven nuclear power reactors in commercial operation; six are under construction, and several more are slated for development in the near future. Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give a fivefold increase in nuclear capacity up to 40 GWe by 2020, and then a further three to fourfold increase to 120–160 GWe by 2030. The natural uranium supply, however, does not correspond to the speed of nuclear power development because of low production and poor deposits. After examining the existing nuclear power status quo in China, this paper provides an experimental model and a calculation method for the natural uranium needed that is based on the nuclear capacity to be installed in 2014. The natural uranium gap is further discussed through an analysis of the uranium resource distribution, reserves, and production in China, together with approaches to fill the gap. To meet the imminent uranium peak that will be required for fuel demands, China should diversify natural uranium sources and develop advanced nuclear power systems to save fuel.     

China's spent nuclear fuel management: Current practices and future strategies

Although China's nuclear power industry is relatively young and the management of its spent nuclear fuel is not yet a concern, China's commitment to nuclear energy and its rapid pace of development require detailed analyses of its future spent fuel management policies. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of China's fuel cycle program and its reprocessing policy, and to suggest strategies for managing its future fuel cycle program. The study is broken into four sections. The first reviews China's current nuclear fuel cycle program and facilities. The second discusses China's current spent fuel management methods and the storage capability of China's 13 operational nuclear power plants. The third estimates China's total accumulated spent fuel, its required spent fuel storage from present day until 2035, when China expects its first commercialized fast neutron reactors to be operational, and its likely demand for uranium resources. The fourth examines several spent fuel management scenarios for the present period up until 2035; the financial cost and proliferation risk of each scenario is evaluated. The study concludes that China can and should maintain a reprocessing operation to meet its R&D activities before its fast reactor program is further developed.     

Why is China going nuclear?

In November 2007, China’s State Council approved its “Medium- and Long-Term Nuclear Power Development Plan”, which set as a goal to increase the nation’s nuclear capacity from about 7 to 40 GWe by 2020. In March 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission suggested installed nuclear power capacity might even exceed 60 GWe by 2020 due to faster than expected construction. Even with this growth, nuclear power’s share of China’s installed total capacity would be only about 5 percent. Yet China’s rapid nuclear expansion poses serious financial, political, security, and environmental challenges. This study investigates China’s claim that nuclear energy is necessary to meet its growing energy demands by analyzing China’s energy alternatives and assessing their likelihood of contributing to total Chinese capacity. By looking at China’s transformative energy policy from several perspectives, this study finds that nuclear energy is indeed a necessity for China.     

Why is Brazil enriching uranium?

In Brazil construction began in 1971 on Angra 1, a 626 MW Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR). It was completed in 1984. Later, Angra 2 (a Kraftwerk Union PWR) achieved commercial operation in 2000. Brazil is considering the construction of seven nuclear power plants over the next 15 years. In preparation for this nuclear industry expansion, Brazil is building a uranium enrichment facility to provide nuclear fuel for Angra 1 and 2 starting in 2010 at Resende in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and collated with nuclear fuel fabrication facilities. This paper investigates whether the Resende Enrichment Facility will be able to provide uranium enrichment services at a cost lower than the international market price. We find that while Brazil is unlikely to be internationally competitive in the enrichment market, the Resende Enrichment Facility completes the front end of Brazil's nuclear fuel cycle. This assures uninterrupted nuclear fuel to its currently operating light water reactors, while providing the option of expanding capacity, lowering cost, and competing in the international nuclear fuel market after 2020.     

核电在中国中长期能源供应体系中的作用

研究核电发展问题,需要放置于能源电力的宏观体系中予以综合考量。文章研究了中国电力的供需形势,建立了电力供需平衡模型,对2040年之前的电力供需情况进行了预测分析。在综合考虑11类边界条件,并参考主要发达经济体能源发展历史的基础上,建立了中国6类一次能源消费预测模型,对2040年之前的一次能源消费情况进行了预测,给出了“核能低值”、“核能高值”两类预测结果。分析了世界核电的发展历史,对其进行了五个阶段划分,并论述了各阶段的核电发展情况、发展驱动力、影响因素等问题,还研究了美国、法国、德国等三个典型国家的核电发展历史,总结了经验教训。研究了世界铀矿资源量及储用比情况,为衡量铀资源的宏观转化效率,定义了铀资源转化比指标,并对主要经济体进行了对比研究。上述研究的主要结论为:(1)中国化石能源消费将在2030年之前见顶,一次能源消费将进入缓慢增长或维持阶段;(2)中长期来看,核能、非水可再生能源将分担新增能源消费和化石能源替代需求;(3)在电力供应严重过剩的情况下,核电的大规模开工建设预计将延至2025年以后;(4)至2040年,中国一次能源消费总量预计将达到57.4亿吨标准煤当量(tce),其中,核能消费占比在4.5%～7.5%之间,非水可再生能源消费占比在13.6%～16.6%之间;(5)总体来看,世界拥有充足的铀矿资源储备,可满足“铀基”核能的长期发展,此外,2040年之前的铀矿资源价格也将难以回到2007年的高位;(6)中国铀资源转化比仅为世界平均值的56.6%,需要在乏燃料处理及燃料循环利用方面提升技术水平和处理能力。     

Beyond an energy deal: Impacts of the Sino-Australia uranium agreement

Is the spectacular growth of Sino-Australian trade compelling Australian policy-makers to strengthen strategic support for China in the face of traditional alliances? The recently signed trade agreement under which Australia will annually export 20,000 tonnes of uranium to China for power generation for the next 20 years, will feed China's increased energy demand, allow a reduction in dependence on coal-based energy and ameliorate environmental deterioration, all matters that have become critical to China's economic growth. Yet the uranium trade will contribute only slightly to China's energy needs, and to the Australian economy. However, the trade deal was signed even though China, as a nuclear military power, is a potential threat to Australia's strongest military ally, the US. At the same time it reignited a divisive debate in Australia, covering a wide range of political, social, economic, health and environmental policy areas that reach well beyond strategic relationships. That the Australian Government will risk both internal and external criticism seems to be further recognition that Australia is becoming increasingly dependent on the continued growth of China's economy for its prosperity.     

Future regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia: Energy security costs and benefits

Economic growth in East Asia has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. Many of the countries of East Asia have sought or are seeking to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply and/or environmental security by developing nuclear power. Rapid development of nuclear power in East Asia brings with it concerns regarding nuclear weapons proliferation associated with uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel management. This article summarizes the development and analysis of four different scenarios of nuclear fuel cycle management in East Asia, including a scenario where each major nuclear power user develops uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel individually, scenarios featuring cooperation in the full fuel cycle, and a scenario where reprocessing is avoided in favor of dry cask storage of spent fuel. The material inputs and outputs and costs of key fuel cycle elements under each scenario are summarized.     

The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?

Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.     

Renewable energy sources in the Egyptian electricity market: A review

This review paper presents an appraisal of renewable energy RE options in Egypt. An appraisal review of different REs is presented. The study shows that electric energy produced from REs in Egypt are very poor compared with other energy sources. The utilization of the renewable energies can also be a good opportunity to fight the desertification and dryness in Egypt which is about 60% of Egypt territory. The rapid growth of energy production and consumption is strongly affecting and being affected by the Egyptian economy in many aspects. It is evident that energy will continue to play an important role in the development of Egypt's economy in coming years. The total installed electricity generating capacity had reached around 22025 MW with a generating capacity reached 22605 MW at the end of 2007. Hydropower and coal has no significant potential increase. During the period 1981/82-2004/05 electricity generation has increased by 500% from nearly 22 TWh for the year 1981/1982 to 108.4 TWh in the year 2004/2005 at an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. Consequently, oil and gas consumed by the electricity sector has jumped during the same period from around 3.7 MTOE to nearly 21 MTOE. The planned installed capacity for the year 2011/2012 is 28813 MW and the required fuel (oil and gas) for the electricity sector is estimated to reach about 29 MTOE by the same year. The renewable energy strategy targets to supply 3% of the electricity production from renewable resources by the year 2010. Electrical Coverage Electrical energy has been provided for around 99.3% of Egypt's population, representing a positive sign for the welfare of the Egyptian citizen due to electricity relation to all development components in all walks of life. The article discusses perspectives of wind energy in Egypt with projections to generate ∼ 3.5 GWe by 2022, representing ∼9% of the total installed power at that time (40.2 GW). Total renewables (hydro + wind + solar) are expected to provide ∼7.4 GWe by 2022 representing ∼ 19% of the total installed power. Such a share would reduce dependence on depleting oil and gas resources, and hence improve country's sustainable development.     

Hydropower in China at present and its further development

At present, China's economic development faces energy challenge, and the appropriate solution of energy bottleneck is the key to healthy, rapid and sustainable development. China's gross amount of hydraulic resource ranks first in the world; however, because of low level of development, hydraulic resource has a broad development prospect. Now, China's hydropower development is in its peak period. By the end of 2004, the gross installed hydropower capacity of China broke through 100 million kW. From there, it has remained in the top slot worldwide. The vigorous development of hydropower is necessary because of the energy shortage and environmental pollution in China in order to attain sustainable development of China's economy. Abundant hydraulic resource, huge market demands, the strategy of western development and the favorable environment of economic development provide hydropower construction with unprecedented advantages and opportunities. Chins hydropower development aims at an installed hydropower capacity of up to 194 million kW by 2010, accounting for 23.1% of the gross installed power capacity and 35% of hydropower resource. Finally, we present the general condition of Three Gorges project as well as the new mode of hydropower development of Three Gorges Project Corporation, i.e., cascade development.     

Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory

This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO₂-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO₂-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.     

Power system optimization

Long-term gas purchase contracts usually determine delivery and payment for gas on the regular hourly basis, independently of demand side consumption. In order to use fuel gas in an economically viable way, optimization of gas distribution for covering consumption must be introduced. In this paper, a mathematical model of the electric utility system which is used for optimization of gas distribution over electric generators is presented. The utility system comprises installed capacity of 1500 MW of thermal power plants, 400 MW of combined heat and power plants, 330 MW of a nuclear power plant and 1600 MW of hydro power plants. Based on known demand curve the optimization model selects plants according to the prescribed criteria. Firstly it engages run-of-river hydro plants, then the public cogeneration plants, the nuclear plant and thermal power plants. Storage hydro plants are used for covering peak load consumption. In case of shortage of installed capacity, the cross-border purchase is allowed. Usage of dual fuel equipment (gas–oil), which is available in some thermal plants, is also controlled by the optimization procedure. It is shown that by using such a model it is possible to properly plan the amount of fuel gas which will be contracted. The contracted amount can easily be distributed over generators efficiently and without losses (no breaks in delivery). The model helps in optimizing of fuel gas–oil ratio for plants with combined burners and enables planning of power plants overhauls over a year in a viable and efficient way.     

Prospectives for China's solar thermal power technology development

China's total installed electrical power capacity reached 700 GW by the end of 2007 and is predicted to surpass 900 GW in 2010. The rapid increase in energy demand and increasing global warming have both pushed China to change its current electrical power structure where coal power accounts for nearly 75% of the total electric power generation. China has already become the world's largest solar water heater producer and user. However, there is still much to be done in the solar thermal power field before its commercialization. Solar thermal power technologies including solar power towers, solar parabolic trough concentrators, solar dish/stirling systems, linear Fresnel reflectors, and solar chimneys have been studied in China since the 1980s. A 10 kW dish/stirling project was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) during 2000–2005 with a 1 MW solar power tower and research of trough concentrator metal–glass evacuated tubes supported during 2006–2010. This paper describes a continued solar thermal power development roadmap in China in 5-year intervals between 2006 and 2025.     

The achievement,significance and future prospect of China's renewable energy initiative

China's high-speed economic growth and ambitious urbanization depend heavily on the massive consumption of fossil fuel. However, the over-dependence on the depleting fossil fuels causes severe environmental problems, making China the largest energy consumer and the biggest CO₂ emitter in the world. Faced with significant challenges in terms of managing its environment and moving forward with the concept of sustainable economic development, the Chinese government plans to move away from fossil fuels and rely on renewables such as hydropower, wind power, solar power, biomass power and nuclear power. In this paper, the current status of China's renewable energy deployment and the ongoing development projects are summarized and discussed. Most recent developments of major renewable energy sources are clearly reviewed. Additionally, the renewable energy development policies including laws and regulations, economic encouragement, technical research and development are also summarized. This study showcases China's achievements in exploiting its abundant domestic renewable energy sources to meet the future energy demand and reducing carbon emissions. To move toward a low carbon society, technological progress and policy improvements are needed for improving grid access (wind), securing nuclear fuel supplies and managing safety protocols (nuclear), integrating supply chains to achieve indigenous manufacture of technologies across supply chains (solar). Beyond that, a preliminary prediction of the development of China's future renewable energy developments, and proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The proposal involves developing smart-grid system, investing on renewable energy research, improving the feed-in tariff system and clarifying the subsidy system.     

Japan's spent fuel and plutonium management challenge

Japan's commitment to plutonium recycling has been explicitly stated in its long-term program since 1956. Despite the clear cost disadvantage compared with direct disposal or storage of spent fuel, the Rokkasho reprocessing plant started active testing in 2006. Japan's cumulative consumption of plutonium has been only 5 tons to date and its future consumption rate is still uncertain. But once the Rokkasho reprocessing plant starts its full operation, Japan will separate about 8 tons of plutonium annually. Our analysis shows that, with optimum use of available at-reactor and away-from-reactor storage capacity, there would be no need for reprocessing until the mid-2020s. With an additional 30,000 tons of away-from-reactor (AFR) spent-fuel storage capacity reprocessing could be avoided until 2050. Deferring operation of the Rokkasho plant, at least until the plutonium stockpile had been worked down to the minimum required level, would also minimize international concern about Japan's plutonium stockpile. The authors are happy to acknowledge Frank von Hippel, Harold Feiveson, Jungming Kang, Zia Mian, M.V. Ramana, and other IPFM members, as well as the generous grant from the MacArthur Foundation for helping make this research possible.     

The potential of fission nuclear power in resolving global climate change under the constraints of nuclear fuel resources and once-through fuel cycles

Nuclear fission is receiving new attention as a developed source of carbon-free energy. A much larger number of nuclear reactors would be needed for a major impact on carbon emission. The crucial question is whether it can be done without increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation. Specifically, can a larger nuclear share in world energy production, well above the present 6%, be achieved in the next few decades without adding the proliferation-sensitive technologies of reprocessing spent fuel and recycling plutonium to the problems of the unavoidable use of enrichment technology? The answer depends on the available uranium resources. We first looked for the maximum possible nuclear build-up in the 2025–2065 period under the constraints of the estimated uranium resources and the use of once-through nuclear fuel technology. Our results show that nuclear energy without reprocessing could reduce carbon emission by 39.6% of the total reduction needed to bring the WEO 2009 Reference Scenario prediction of total GHG emissions in 2065 to the level of the WEO 450 Scenario limiting global temperature increase to 2 °C. The less demanding strategy of the nuclear replacement of all non-CCS coal power plants retiring during the 2025–2065 period would reduce emission by 26.1%.     

我国快堆闭式核燃料循环体系的现状及展望

基于铀资源需求和乏燃料积累预测，论证了我国发展快堆闲式核燃料循环的必要性，通过国内外调研，重点对影响我国快堆闭式循环的三个关键因素：钚元素积累、快堆技术、乏燃料后处理及快堆燃料技术的现状进行分析，并提出了展望和建议。     

Concentrating solar thermal power as a viable alternative in China's electricity supply

Study of low-carbon and pollution renewable alternatives for China revealed that concentrating solar thermal (CST) electric power generation was underemphasized in China's renewable energy plan. The analysis shows the competitive viability of CST: (1) China has the key prerequisites to make CST power generation economical including high-quality insolation and appropriate land, (2) CST's proven history, scale, and dispatchability makes it a good utility-scale power option, especially in the economically underdeveloped Western regions, (3) while CST power is currently more expensive than coal-fired electricity on a nominal basis, when costs of externalities are accounted for, CST, at 11.4 US cents/kWh, can become 57% cheaper than scrubbed coal and 29% cheaper than nuclear power, (4) CST power continues dropping in cost due to economies of scale and technological improvements and can potentially realize a levelized electricity cost of around 4 cents/kWh within ten years, (5) it would significantly rise in competitiveness if and when China completes the extensive smart grid for connecting its solar-abundant western regions with the high-demand eastern regions, (6) CST has the potential to positively impact Western China's economy, but proper policy and deal structure must be in place to ensure that the local community shares the benefit.     

Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis

Concrete inventories for methane emissions and associated embodied emissions in production, consumption, and international trade are presented in this paper for the mainland Chinese economy in 2007 with most recent availability of relevant environmental resources statistics and the input–output table. The total CH₄ emission by Chinese economy 2007 estimated as 39,592.70 Gg is equivalent to three quarters of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion by the global thermodynamic potentials, and even by the commonly referred lower IPCC global warming potentials is equivalent to one sixth of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion and greater than the CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion of many economically developed countries such as UK, Canada, and Germany. Agricultural activities and coal mining are the dominant direct emission sources, and the sector of Construction holds the top embodied emissions in both production and consumption. The emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied CH₄ emissions with the emission embodied in exports of 14,021.80 Gg, in magnitude up to 35.42% of the total direct emission. China's exports of textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products have a significant impact on its net embodied emissions of international trade balance. Corresponding policy measures such as agricultural carbon-reduction strategies, coalbed methane recovery, export-oriented and low value added industry adjustment, and low carbon energy polices to methane emission mitigation are addressed.     

Scenario for growth of electricity in India

India's GDP has been growing quite fast in recent past and it is forecast that it would continue to do so in the coming several decades. To realize the growth in GDP, it is necessary that corresponding growth in demand of primary energy as well as electricity is estimated and plans are made to meet the demand. Our estimate indicates that even after recognizing that energy intensity of GDP would continue to decline as in the past, the total electricity generation by the middle of the century would be an order of magnitude higher than the generation in the fiscal year 2002–2003. This calls for developing a strategy for growth of electricity generation based on a careful examination of all issues related to sustainability particularly abundance of available energy resources, diversity of sources of energy supply and technologies, security of supplies and self-sufficiency. This paper presents a scenario for growth of electricity in India. To meet the projected demand, the paper presents a strategy, which incorporates, wherever available, recommendations of various organs of the Government of India. It is observed that in order to limit cumulative energy import during the next 50 years to about 30%, the nuclear contribution towards electricity generation has to increase from the present 3% to about a quarter of the total. For the nuclear power to play this role, the programme of the Department of Atomic Energy to augment nuclear installed capacity to 20 GWe by 2020 based on a mix of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), Light Water Reactors (LWRs) and Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) should be completed and the R&D necessary to set up U–Pu metal-based FBRs of short doubling time and associated fuel reprocessing technologies should also be completed in the next 15 years.