Multi-criteria model for sustainable development using goal programming applied to the United Arab Emirates

Sustainable development requires implementing suitable policies integrating several competing objectives on economic, environmental, energy and social criteria. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) using goal programming is a popular and widely used technique to study decision problems in the face of multiple conflicting objectives. MCDA assists policy makers by providing clarity in choosing between alternatives for strategic planning and investments. In this paper, we propose a weighted goal programming model that integrates efficient allocation of resources to simultaneously achieve sustainability related goals on GDP growth, electricity consumption and GHG emissions. We validate the model with application to key economic sectors of the United Arab Emirates to achieve sustainable development goals by the year 2030. The model solution provides a quantitative justification and a basis for comparison in planning future energy requirements and an indispensable requirement to include renewable sources to satisfy long-term energy requirements.     

Assessment of China's energy-saving and emission-reduction accomplishments and opportunities during the 11th Five Year Plan

From 1980 to 2002, China experienced a 5% average annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). With a dramatic reversal of this historic relationship, energy intensity increased 5% per year during 2002–2005. China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) set a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010. This paper assesses selected policies and programs that China has instituted to fulfill the national goal, finding that China made substantial progress and many of the energy-efficiency programs appear to be on track to meet – or in some cases exceed – their energy-saving targets. Most of the Ten Key Projects, the Top-1000 Program, and the Small Plant Closure Program will meet or surpass the 11th FYP savings goals. China's appliance standards and labeling program has become very robust. China has greatly enhanced its enforcement of new building energy standards but energy-efficiency programs for buildings retrofits, as well as the goal of adjusting China's economic structure, are failing. It is important to maintain and strengthen the existing energy-saving policies and programs that are successful while revising programs or adding new policy mechanisms to improve the programs that are not on track to achieve the stated goals.     

Energy needs for Morocco 2030, as obtained from GDP-energy and GDP-energy intensity correlations

We present forecasts of the energy consumption of Morocco towards 2030. Two models have been developed and their results compared: one based on the energy intensity (IE) and another one on a link with the country urbanization rate (URB). The IE model allowed to segment energy consumption in four posts while the URB model only in two posts. For the sensitivity analysis to economic growth, three future GDP evolution scenarios are proposed. The retrospective correlations of both models are excellent but their future extrapolations finish in slightly different results. Through their correlation to electricity consumption, peak power forecasts are also presented. A forecast of the country energy intensity is commented. As the average yearly increase of electricity should still be between 4.9% and 7.1% during 2020–2030, the electric equipment program continuation after 2020 must soon be clarified and avoid the former implementation delays. As the white combustibles needs should yearly increase between 6.3% and 7.8% in 2020–2030, electrical equipment programs should also make provisions for the case of deployment of electric cars. Butane subsidies widen the gap with other fuels and must be removed very soon possible to reduce the growth of its consumption and energy intensity.     

Baseline of the projection under a structural change in energy demand

This article investigates the long-term energy demand and energy policy measures when undergoing structural changes in energy demand. Initially, the statistical test shows the possibility of the structural change from the late 2000s. Therefore, we developed the energy demand model to forecast the energy demand by 2030 that considers the structural change. The results show that there may be a 12% reduction in the energy demand in 2030 compared to the reference case in the Japanese government's outlook, which is equal to about 86.0% of the effect of the planned policy measures by the government, but also that it is difficult to achieve energy-originated CO2 emissions in the national target. Our analysis suggests that mitigation policies are required, but those in the planned policy measures are not completely required to achieve the goal.     

The development of the German energy market until 2030—A critical survey of selected scenarios

Many scenarios have been generated in the last years analysing the international energy market. The variety of these scenarios is manifold, as they are generated by different institutions using different methodological approaches and different framework assumptions. However, these scenarios can roughly be classified into three main groups: “moderate”, “climate protection” and “resource scarcity and high fossil fuel prices”. Analysing the German energy market makes a fourth scenario group necessary, which considers the possible revision of the decided nuclear energy phase out. Most of the existing scenarios developed by different institutions can be allocated into one of these groups. A representative scenario for each group has been selected to illustrate the development of the energy sector until 2030. Contrary to the worldwide primary energy demand (PED), the German PED decreases in each scenario, even though the drop differs strongly throughout the scenarios. On the other hand the structure of the PED in 2030 varies strongly for each scenario, especially regarding the share of fossil energy sources. However, a common robust result can be observed throughout all scenarios, namely the high increase in the share of the renewable energy resources, although the scenario generation processes are not always robust.     

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper.

For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case.     

Conceptualizing urban household energy use: Climbing the “Energy Services Ladder”

This article begins by defining energy services and identifying how they differ according to sector, urban and rural areas, and direct and indirect uses. It then investigates household energy services divided into three classes: lower income, middle income, and upper income. It finds that the primary energy technologies involved with low-income households involve a greater number of fuels and carriers, ranging from dung and fuelwood to liquefied petroleum gas and charcoal, but a fewer number of services. Middle-income households throughout the world tend to rely on electricity and natural gas, followed by coal, liquefied petroleum gas, and kerosene. These homes utilize energy to produce a much broader range services. The upper class or rich have access to the same energy fuels, carriers, and technologies as middle-income homes and families, but consume more energy (and more high luxury items). The study highlights how focusing on energy services reorients the direction of energy policy interventions, that energy services are neither uniform nor innate, and by noting exciting areas of potential research.     

Thailand's energy security indicators

This study presents an assessment of the energy security of Thailand using nineteen indicators. The assessment period is for a 45 year period (1986–2030), and used published data for 1986–2009, and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010–2030. The three scenarios considered were “high economic growth and least cost option (HEG&LC)”, “low carbon society (LCS)”, and “current policy (CP)”. The results show that LCS scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term. However, to achieve this, the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25% reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60% energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level. One benefit would be an increase in the non-carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33% of total primary energy supply in 2030. A reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports. CO₂ emission reduction of 123 MtCO₂ and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result.     

Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO_x, SO₂ and PM₁₀ corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.     

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.     

Sustainable energy policy in Honduras: Diagnosis and challenges

In view of having a still unexploited potential of natural resources available for clean energy and the possibility of using the regional electricity market in Central America, Honduras has several potential energy sources. The growing dependence on oil and the imminent increase in international prices of fossil fuels, coupled with the necessity of changing the energy sector arrangement, the State of Honduras has taken the lead for the development of a long-term sustainable energy policy. This energy policy must be able to develop various energy sources and guide both, the government and the private sector, to the planning and development of alternative energy sources and sustainable growth of the Honduran economy. In this paper, the various energy diagnoses and the potential for changing the Honduran energy mix are presented, as well as the investment required for sustainable management of the energy sector. Furthermore, the objectives of the energy policy and plan up to the year 2030 are presented, outlining the investment possibilities for the energy sector development, showing their costs and timeframes.     

Sustainable reference methodology for energy end-use efficiency data in the EU

One of the most important goals of the European energy policy involves the implementation of energy-efficiency measures in large scale so as to promote sustainable development in the European Union (EU) level. The multidimensional character of energy end-use efficiency (EEE) necessitates the collection of a number of related data, apart from the performance and system parameters data, such as socio-economic (e.g., employment, turnover) and Research and Development (R&D) expenditures. Moreover, improved co-ordination of EEE programmes and policies of the community and the member states so as a unified acceptable system to be developed for the monitoring of the EEE data with respect to the existing targets is of significant importance. Even though data-gathering efforts have been implemented, a lot of fragmented data and deduced findings are currently available, which sometimes lack consistency and verification. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to present a sustainable reference methodology for validating EEE data in EU, through the review of existing approaches and methods, defining of most relevant inconsistencies and gaps and provision of recommendations for improvements in EEE data aggregation and statistical interpretation, taking into consideration the related analysis of statisticians, energy technology experts and energy socio-economists.     

Determination of household energy using ‘fingerprints’ from energy billing data

Electric and gas utilities (in the U.S.A.) bill their customers on a regular basis, usually monthly or bimonthly. These data provide a truly valuable information resource for energy conservation programme analysts and evaluators. This paper discusses ways to analyse such billing data. The starting point is the Princeton University score-keeping model, which permits decomposition of total household energy use into its weather-and non-weather-sensitive elements; the weather-sensitive portion is assumed to be proportional to heating degree days. The score-keeping model also allows one to compute weather-adjusted energy consumption for each household based on its billing data and model parameters; this is the model's estimate of annual consumption under long-run weather conditions. The methods discussed here extend the score-keeping results to identify additional characteristics of household energy use. The methods classify households in terms of the intensity with which the particular fuel is used for space heating (primary heating fuel vs. supplemental heating fuel vs. no heating at all with the fuel). In addition, households that use the particular fuel for air conditioning are identified. In essence, the billing data and model results define household energy use ‘fingerprints’. The billing data and model results can also be used to identify and correct anomalous bills. Finally, the methods permit careful examination and analysis of changes in energy use from one year to another. They help explain why some households show anomalously large energy savings (e.g. they began using wood as a heating fuel during the second year) or negative energy savings (e.g. very high air conditioning energy use during the second year).     

Exploring the competitiveness of hydrogen-fueled gas turbines in future energy systems

Hydrogen is currently receiving attention as a possible cross-sectoral energy carrier with the potential to enable emission reductions in several sectors, including hard-to-abate sectors. In this work, a techno-economic optimization model is used to evaluate the competitiveness of time-shifting of electricity generation using electrolyzers, hydrogen storage and gas turbines fueled with hydrogen as part of the transition from the current electricity system to future electricity systems in Years 2030, 2040 and 2050. The model incorporates an emissions cap to ensure a gradual decline in carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels, targeting near-zero CO₂ emissions by Year 2050, and this includes 15 European countries.The results show that hydrogen gas turbines have an important role to play in shifting electricity generation and providing capacity when carbon emissions are constrained to very low levels in Year 2050. The level of competitiveness is, however, considerably lower in energy systems that still allow significant levels of CO₂ emissions, e.g., in Year 2030. For Years 2040 and 2050, the results indicate investments mainly in gas turbines that are partly fueled with hydrogen, with 30–77 vol.-% hydrogen in biogas, although some investments in exclusively hydrogen-fueled gas turbines are also envisioned. Both open cycle and combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) receive investments, and the operational patterns show that also CCGTs have a frequent cyclical operation, whereby most of the start-stop cycles are less than 20 h in duration.     

An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary.     

Convergence of energy productivity in Australian states and territories: Determinants and forecasts

The Australian government has recently launched a National Energy Productivity Plan that calls for a 40% increase in energy productivity (economic output divided by energy use) before 2030. Improving energy productivity would help boost economic competitiveness, reduce energy costs, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Australia. Understanding energy productivity dynamics at the state level is essential for the success of this program. This research analyses the convergence path of energy productivity in Australian states and territories. Club convergence analysis applied to data over the period 1990–2015 reveals two converging energy productivity clubs. Initial energy productivity, industry structure, and automobile fuel prices are important determinants of higher energy productivity. Based on Australian state energy productivity forecasts to 2030, New South Wales and Victoria will be the forerunners in maintaining higher energy productivity in 2030. Australia will not achieve a 40% increase in energy productivity before 2030 without significant changes to its fuel mix and industry structure.     

Integrated MAED–MARKAL-based analysis of future energy scenarios of Nepal

This paper employs an integrated model for analysis of energy demand and MARKet ALlocation modelling framework for assessing different pathways for the development of energy systems of Nepal. Four energy scenarios are analysed with the time horizon from 2010 to 2030. With high electrification and energy efficiency and demand-side management, the analysis reveals that all three major goals of sustainable energy for all can be achieved by 2030, but that the total discounted systems costs required account for three times the costs of the reference scenario. In the policy scenario, net fuel import costs and greenhouse gas emissions will decline by 20% and 35%, respectively and the share of renewable energy will increase from 3% in 2010 to 22% in 2030. The analysis provides insights for selecting a better pathway for the sustainable energy development and energy security of the country.     

An ex-ante evaluation of a White Certificates scheme in The Netherlands: A case study for the household sector

Increased efficiency of energy demand is generally recognized as a very cost-effective strategy to reduce energy requirements and the related environmental impacts (e.g. the greenhouse effect). In order to improve energy efficiency the use of innovative market mechanisms, such as the White Certificates (WhC), has been proposed. The basic idea underlying this policy instrument is that specific energy saving targets are set for energy suppliers or energy distributors. These requirements must be fulfilled in a predefined time frame. The focus of this paper is on the effect on energy efficiency improvement, on the behavior of the end consumers and the market of energy efficiency measures. Furthermore, we study the possible effects of WhC in The Netherlands by means of a theoretical analysis and an empirical bottom-up model. We compare concrete energy efficient technologies in terms of cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency improvement. In combination with existing Dutch policies for energy efficiency improvement in the built environment, the contribution of this innovative scheme could enhance the accomplishment of energy efficiency targets. In this paper, two packages of energy saving measures of a WhC scheme are studied for Dutch households. The costs of these technologies are estimated through the use of different discount rates, which imply overcoming of the market barriers through the use of the WhC. A scheme that includes all available technologies as flexible options appears as a realistic solution and can generate cost effectively up to 180 PJ primary energy savings and 4550 M€ cumulative net savings in the year 2020, at a discount rate of 5%, under the precondition that the policy and administrative costs can be kept low.     

India’s energy needs and low carbon options

India’s aspiration for economic growth has consequences for energy growth and CO₂ emissions. This paper examines India’s need for energy with 20 year perspectives. From an earlier paper by K. Parikh et al. (2009), demand scenario are examined from the supply perspectives ranging from coal, hydrocarbon, nuclear, hydrogen, hydro and other renewable etc. None of these are substantial and India will have to rely on imports. The need for energy has to be reduced by a drive for energy efficiency and renewable energy. Government programmes for the above are also commented upon. Though India’s CO₂ emissions are unlikely to grow very much due to energy scarcity and energy mix the article examines the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions and the associated costs involved in various options. It finds that 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 is feasible but would involve additional costs. The most promising option is to reduce energy demand by various measures to increase energy use efficiency in production and consumption.     

Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003–2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy.