大尺度分布式水文模型VIC在嘉陵江流域径流模拟中的应用

大尺度分布式流域水文模型是目前评价流域环境变化的重要工具,以嘉陵江流域为研究对象,构建了嘉陵江流域大尺度分布式VIC模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC model),利用Maryland大学的全球1 km×1 km土地覆盖数据,同时参考LDAS(Land Data Assimilation System)成果,建立了嘉陵江流域VIC模型的参数库,通过4个水文站以上流域的水文模拟试验,结果表明建立的VIC模型能有效地模拟嘉陵江流域各典型站的日、月径流过程,模拟的水量平衡误差在5%以内,日径流过程模拟的确定性系数均在70%以上,月径流过程模拟的确定性系数超过90%。该模型可以用来分析环境变化对嘉陵江流域水资源及洪水过程的影响。     

Data- and model-driven determination of flow pathways in the Piako catchment,New Zealand

Quantifying flow pathways within a larger catchment can help improve diffuse pollution management strategies across subcatchments. But, spatial quantification of flow pathway contributions to catchment stream flow is very limited, since it is challenging to physically separate water from different paths and very expensive to measure, especially for larger areas. To overcome this problem, a novel, combined data and modelling approach was employed to partition stream flow in the Piako catchment, New Zealand, which is a predominantly agricultural catchment with medium to high groundwater recharge potential. The approach comprised a digital filtering technique to separate baseflow from total stream flow, machine learning to predict a baseflow index (BFI) for all streams with Strahler 1st order and higher, and hydrological modelling to partition the flow into five flow components: surface runoff, interflow, tile drainage, shallow groundwater, and deep groundwater. The baseflow index scores corroborated the spatial distributions of the flow pathways modelled in 1st order catchments. Average depth to groundwater data matched well with BFI and Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) modeled flow pathway partitioning results, with deeper water tables in areas of the catchment predicted to have greater baseflow or shallow and deep groundwater contributions to stream flow. Since direct quantification of flow pathways at catchment-scale is scarce, it is recommended to use soft data and expert knowledge to inform model parameterization and to constrain the model results. The approach developed here is applicable as a screening method in ungauged catchments.     

潘家口水库流域土地利用变化的水文响应分析

以潘家口水库流域为研究区域,采用SWAT分布式水文模型定量评估土地利用变化对流域径流过程的影响。相对于1980年土地利用情景,2006年土地利用变化主要表现为耕地减少,林地和草地面积增大,而水域和城镇用地变化相对较小。利用3个水文站1986年1月至1999年12月的月径流实测数据进行模型的校准和验证。在不同土地利用情景下,对流域的天然径流过程进行模拟分析,模拟结果显示,与1980年土地利用情景相比,2006年土地利用情景下的多年平均径流减少11%;对于不同典型水文年份而言,土地利用变化对枯水年的影响最大,对丰水年和平水年的影响相当;土地利用变化对年径流的影响主要表现为汛期径流减少。潘家口水库流域水资源涵养能力有所增加。模拟研究土地利用变化对潘家口水库流域径流的影响对合理规划土地利用和流域水资源的综合管理具有现实意义。     

Modeling of Surface Runoff in Xitiaoxi Catchment,China

Xitiaoxi catchment is one of the most important catchments in the Taihu basin in China. Due to its significant contribution of surface runoff and associated nutrients input to Lake Taihu, understanding of the processes of surface runoff in this catchment is, therefore, of primary importance in quantifying water and nutrient balances for Lake Taihu. The generation of surface runoff in the catchment is mainly controlled by rainfall and land cover, so the variety of surface runoff in Xitiaoxi catchment is seasonal. Moreover, the annual change of surface runoff is distinct. Because of the diversity of land use and variety of hydrological characteristics, numerical simulation of the generation of surface runoff over this catchment is not straightforward. In this paper, attempts were made in applying the Large Scale Catchment Model (LASCAM) to Xitiaoxi catchment. The Xitiaoxi catchment is divided into 47 subcatchments connected via a river network based on topology. The model was first run in an optimization mode to calibrate the parameters against the observed runoff for the period of 1968–1977, and then was run in a prediction mode to try to reproduce the runoff for the next 10 years from 1978 to 1987. The model indicates that saturation excess runoff is probably the dominant process for the catchment. The modeling results indicate that water storage in shallow soils near the stream has a high correlation with daily rainfall, while the water storage changes in deep aquifers demonstrate an annual change trend, showing a rising level for wet seasons and a declining level for dry seasons. The success in modeling surface runoff leads to confidence in modeling nutrients transport as the next step of modeling work.     

湖北平原水网区水文水资源系统模拟研究

本文以湖北汉川洪西垸径流试验区为对象，探讨了水网地区水量转化的系统模拟问题，通过单元系统的水均衡分析，提出一种能反映平原湖区水文基本特征的水资源系统模型，它能够定量描述降水、灌溉水、流域产水量、入渗补给理、潜水蒸发量以及地下水动态变化；可进行日径流长序序操作，由系统输入自动实现地表和地下水动态过程分割和水资源总量评价。该模型用洪西垸径流试验区实测资料做了验证与分析。     

Comparison of the Lumped and Quasi-distributed Clark Runoff Models in Simulating Flood Hydrographs on a Semi-arid Watershed

In applied hydrology, predicting peak flow for a stream or river is so complex due to temporal and spatial dependency of hydrological variables such as meteorological parameters, variations in soil type and land use. Either advanced distributed hydrological models or simple Lump models can be used for simulating these situations. This paper compares the performance of the quasi-distributed model ModClark versus lumped parameter model Clark in simulating the process of transformation of rainfall to runoff. The aim of this comparison is to identify whether using a complex model which takes into account spatial and temporal distribution parameters, which are hard to prepare and use, will lead to more precise results or not. For the purpose of this study, historical data of Randan basin situated in semi-arid region of Iran in North West of Tehran was used. The size of the catchment is 67.76 km². Reviewing the results of calibration and accuracy of models revealed that both models are able to simulate the hydrology of the catchment in an acceptable way.     

分布式水文概念性模型及应用

在遥感与GIS支持下，建立地理空间信息库，提取了流域土地利用、土壤类型和植被类型等地理信息及相应的水空间参数，采用已有的水概念性模型，建立了一个分布式水概念性模型．模型结构简单，所需参数较少，易于率定，可操作性强．实例应用表明，该模型对雁栖河流域径流量的模拟是有效的，可用于评估流域水资源量、气候变化以及土地利用变化对水资源的影响．     

泾河流域土地利用/覆被变化对径流情势的影响

通过建立泾河流域SWAT分布式水文模型,重点模拟分析了河流径流情势对土地利用/覆被变化的响应,对比了不同气候条件及人类活动综合影响下研究区水文过程的变化。结果表明:1996年以前土地利用/覆被变化是影响水文过程的主要人类活动影响源,径流量年际变化平稳,属有小幅增加的正偏;年内影响以枯水季节为主,年内分配更趋均匀,径流集中度降低,集中期略有滞后,且趋于平稳;土地利用/覆被变化导致流域蒸散发量、冠层和落叶层截留量减小,入渗量增加,河川基流量和地表径流量相应增大,并在时域上耦合形成了水文过程的新变化;1996年以后,气候条件驱动下泾河年径流量呈现明显的增大趋势,人类活动亦从以土地利用/覆被变化为主转变为以人类水事活动为主的综合影响模式,且人类水事活动超过气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化成为影响水文过程变化的主因。     

土地利用变化和气候变化对温榆河上游流域径流变化的影响

土地利用和气候是直接影响流域水文水资源的两个主要因素,其影响分离的研究对流域的土地利用规划和水资源管理具有重要意义。以温榆河上游流域为研究对象,在统计分析1980-2014年流域气象因子、土地利用变化趋势的基础上,通过SWAT模型模拟与情景设计相结合的方法,评估了气候变化和土地利用变化对温榆河上游径流变化的影响。结果表明,SWAT模型在温榆河上游流域模拟效果良好,率定期和验证期的决定系数R2分别为0.80、0.77,纳什系数Ens分别为0.79、0.74。流域降雨量和气温呈递增趋势,林地和耕地减少,城乡及工矿和居民用地增加,草地在1995年到2005年间增加,这些变化综合影响了流域的径流变化,使得径流先增加后减少。其中气候变化的贡献率为100.46%,土地利用变化的贡献率为2.09%,气候变化的影响远远大于土地利用变化的影响。因此,如何应对气候变化在温榆河上游流域水资源管理工作中值得重视。     

城镇化和闸坝对沙颍河流量的影响研究

分布式水文模型PRMS(The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System)考虑了降水、气候和土地利用等因素,可模拟产流、产沙等描述流域水和物质循环的重要变量。利用沙颍河实测流量资料对建立的PRMS模型进行了校正和验证,据此模拟了该流域城镇化和闸坝工程对沙颍河流量的影响,结果表明:城镇化使地面不透水面积增加,导致流域蒸散量和降雨入渗减少,产流量增加,而闸坝等水工建筑物改变了流域水资源的时空分配,减弱了自然径流量的波动性,增加了水面蒸发,使流域径流量峰值减小,径流洪峰滞后。城镇化和闸坝对河流径流的影响在枯水年尤为明显。     

Development of a distributed hydrological model based on urban databanks--production processes of URBS.

The objective of this study is to present a distributed hydrological model especially dedicated to urban catchments, and able to represent hydrological processes usually neglected in urban modelling, such as evapotranspiration, infiltration in roads, or direct infiltration of soil water in sewers. This model, called URBS (as Urban Runoff Branching Structure) is distributed considering the spatial variability of land use which is well known thanks to urban databanks managed by GIS. The production function is detailed at each cadastral parcel scale, and the runoff produced is routed by a simple transfer function. The estimation of the input parameters of the model is mostly based on physical considerations, and the model is applied on a suburban catchment in Nantes (France) in order to evaluate the interest of the distribution of the hydrological variables.     

A MACRO-SCALE SEMI-DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL AND APPLICATION TO THE DATONG RIVER VALLEY

1.INTRODUCTION TheYellowRiverisimportantwatersourcein north westChinaandtheHuabeiPlain.Therela tivearidclimateandunreasonablehumanactivities havemadewaterproblemsveryseveresuchas floodthreat,dryriverbedandenvironmentsdeg radation.Theproblemshinderthebasinfromsus tainabledevelopment.Soitisofsignificancetoresearchtheproblemsandmastertherulesofrunoff change.Hydrologicalmodelhasbeenplayinga veryimportantroleasatooltomodelrunoff.A numberofresearchershavedonemuchworkabout runoffsimulationand…     

Urbanisation and Shallow Groundwater: Predicting Changes in Catchment Hydrological Responses

The impact of urbanisation on catchment hydrological response was investigated by using a process-based coupled surface water–groundwater model (MODHMS). The modelling estimated likely changes in river discharge as a result of land-use change in the Southern River catchment in Western Australia, underlined by a highly transmissive aquifer, has permeable soils and a shallow watertable. A significant increase in total annual discharge was predicted as a result of urbanisation area with the runoff coefficient rising from 0.01 to more than 0.40. In contrast with urban areas elsewhere, these changes were mainly due to a shift in the subsurface water balance, leading to significant reduction in evaporative losses from the soil profile and shallow watertable after urbanisation (from nearly 80 % of infiltration to less than 20 %). The infiltration of roof and road runoff and establishment of subsurface drainage adopted in local construction practice leads to higher groundwater recharge rates and subsequently groundwater discharge to the urban drainage network. Urban density and groundwater abstraction for urban irrigation most strongly influence the urbanisation impact on catchment fluxes. The results shows that urban development leads to a production of ‘harvestable’ water; and depending on local needs, this water could be used for public and private water supply or to improve environmental flows.     

Assessing Impacts of Conservation Measures on Watershed Hydrology Using MIKE SHE Model in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change triggers changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc. and has a significant impact on water resources in many regions. Considering the increasing scarcity of water as a result of climate change, conservation of water and groundwater recharge have become crucial factors for water resources planning and management. In this paper, an attempt is made to study the detailed hydrological behaviour of a treated watershed using physically based distributed hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE to assess the impact of conservation measures on watershed hydrology considering future climate change. Three hypothetical management scenarios are simulated for the period 2010–2040. RegCM4 regional climate model is used in the study for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Detailed hydrological water balance is extracted for individual years from 1979 to 2009 to compare relevant components. The evaluation for base period shows 10.06% reduction in surface runoff and 11.33% enhancement in groundwater recharge. Further simulation with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios show notable reduction in surface runoff and increase in groundwater recharge. The structures in the micro-watershed influence the surface runoff and increase infiltration into the soil, resulting in higher groundwater recharge. MIKE SHE simulations for various structures management scenarios establish the role of conservation measures in reducing surface runoff and enhancing groundwater recharge under substantial effect of climate change. The results will assist in decision-making on watershed development plans in quantitative terms, including planning for water conservation measures in the face of climate change.

     

Impacts of Hydrological Changes on Annual Runoff Distribution in Seasonally Dry Basins

Runoff is expected to change due to climate and land use change. Because it constitutes a large component of the terrestrial water budget, we need to develop new policies for managing regional water resources. To do so, we must first attribute changes in the natural flow regime to either climate or land use change. In this context, the Budyko’s curve has previously been adopted to separate the impacts of climate and land use change on runoff by using long term hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu’s equation (which describes Budyko’s curve) is used to separate the impacts of climate and land use change on annual runoff distributions. Specifically, this framework is based on a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins—such as those in Mediterranean regions—from climate statistics and Fu’s equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change is captured through variations in the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, while land use change is represented by changes in Fu’s equation parameter ω. The effects of these two drivers (i.e., climate and land use change) are analyzed by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and for likely future scenarios, based on predictions from global circulation models and urbanization trajectories. The results show that climate change can lead to a strong reduction in mean annual runoff, a shift of the runoff pdf toward lower values, and a decrease in its variance. Concurrent changes in climate and land use almost always result in a reduction in the mean annual runoff, due to the greater impact of climate change on the runoff pdf.

     

气候变化对北江流域径流影响的模拟研究

通过构建北江流域SWAT分布式水文模型,以北江流域13个雨量站10年逐月降水量及北江流域干流石角水文站同步逐月流量数据为输入条件进行水文模型参数率定,应用气候情景设置方法研究了北江流域在降水和气温等不同气候变化条件下径流量的变化规律。研究表明:气温变化1℃对年径流量及其年内分配的影响变化均在1%以内。降水量变化对年径流量影响十分显著,降水量变化10%对年径流量的影响变化可达到15%,而对径流年内分配的影响变化在1%以内,影响较小。随着气温下降和降水量的增加,枯季径流量占年内分配比例均有所上升,枯水期来水量提高,有利于流域城乡供水安全和生态用水安全。     

Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC) model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.     

Modelling nitrate losses from agricultural activities on a national scale.

The Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland (NIRAMS) has been developed as a screening tool for prediction of streamwater N concentrations draining from agricultural land in Scotland. The objective of the model is to be able to predict N concentrations for ungauged catchments, to fill gaps in monitoring data and provide guidance in relation to policy development. The model uses national land use, soils and meteorology data sets and has been developed within an ArcView GIS user interface. The model includes modules to calculate N inputs to the land, residual N remaining at the end of the growing season, weekly time-series of leached N and transport of N at the catchment scale. The N leaching and transport are. controlled by hydrological modules, including a national water balance model and a catchment scale transport model. Preliminary testing of NIRAMS has been carried out on eight Scottish catchments, diverse in terms of geographic location as well as land use. The model is capable of predicting the correct mean level of stream N concentrations, as well as the basic characteristics of seasonal variation. As such the model can be of value for providing estimates of N concentrations in ungauged areas.     

淮河流域历史覆被变化及其对水文过程的影响

以淮河流域蚌埠集水区为研究区域,利用淮河流域1700、1800和2000年3种历史覆被情景,结合陆面水文耦合模型(CLHM)定量评价了流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应,并分析了流域径流与主要覆被类型变化方式的定量关系。结果表明:CLHM模型可以较好地模拟淮河流域的流量过程,在研究区具有较好地适用性;三期覆被情景下主要覆被类型变化为林地转变为耕地或草地以及草地转变为耕地,此种变化导致流域总蒸发量减少了6.5%,流域出口研究期平均径流量增加了6.1%;极端覆被情况下,年均蒸发量由多到少依次为林地、草地和耕地;林地对流域径流过程的影响主要体现在洪峰上,相对于耕地,林地具有削减洪峰的作用;通过分析覆被类型变化与流域多年平均径流的相关关系,林地转变为草地以及林地转变为耕地是近400年来影响淮河流域水文过程及水资源分配的主要覆被变化因子。因此,合理规划土地利用格局对流域水资源高效利用具有重要意义。